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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #221,841
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:44am Apr 21, 2010 10:44am
Quoting lexazver
just checked oanda , on 5sec chart seemed to be 2 valid spikes into 1.4295 area.


in fact all CHF pairs experineced double spike.
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Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana.
  • #221,842
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:47am Apr 21, 2010 10:47am
oct nov last year iwas same thinking gbpjpy just go up that time was around 146 to 153 iwas targeting 158 but it was did not happen...gbpjpy many times hit 151 150 149 but cud not go up...even jan cud not even reach 152....ithink just wait and my range 139 to 144...idonot watch big dreams upside look like very impossible to me....but all u can sayanything 151 or 200next....just good luck...
  • #221,843
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:03am Apr 21, 2010 11:03am
The mind that we each have is an amazing computer. However, we need to feed our minds with information that we then process. I am new to forex, and I would like to ask you what type of forex information do you feed your amazing computer (your mind) wich determines the outcome of your calculations. Of course everyone will at times interpret the same information differently. So, I would like to at least know what type of forex information you feed your mind. Is that too much to ask a fellow trader? :nerd:

P.S. are you in Chiba ken.... Ichikawa shi?
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #221,844
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:06am Apr 21, 2010 11:06am
london closed, leaving us above yesterday's close and above daily vwap (currently @ 143.40) = most probably, more to the upside: 143.78, 144.10, 144.60.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #221,845
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:09am Apr 21, 2010 11:09am
Quoting Scrat
london closed, leaving us above yesterday's close and above daily vwap (currently @ 143.40) = most probably, more to the upside: 143.78, 144.10, 144.60.
I dunno Scrat. Very odd PA in my opinion. Can't seem to go lower and can't seem to go higher... not sure what it's waiting for but I'm sure we'll find out.
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  • #221,846
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:11am Apr 21, 2010 11:11am
info abour firex explain difficult my english very poor better u ask other member...ithink forex is intresting....im at kamagaya shi this located between ichikawa matsudo kashiwa and funbashi small place....regards



Quoting Pair-me-up
The mind that we each have is an amazing computer. However, we need to feed our minds with information that we then process. I am new to forex, and I would like to ask you what type of forex information do you feed your amazing computer (your mind) wich determines the outcome of your calculations. Of course everyone will at times interpret the same information differently. So, I would like to at least know what type of forex information you feed your mind. Is that too much to ask a fellow trader? :nerd:

P.S. are you in Chiba ken.... Ichikawa shi?...
  • #221,847
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:16am Apr 21, 2010 11:16am
yes, but i was expecting 143.78 and i explained why. so far everything is going according to the plan.

i have a bearish bias medium term because last weekly close showed there should be more to downside, and now i am just waiting for the show to begin. when i look at daily/4, i think we are almost there - unless we get a daily close above 143.80, then i will reconsider.

Quoting Geppy
I dunno Scrat. Very odd PA in my opinion. Can't seem to go lower and can't seem to go higher... not sure what it's waiting for but I'm sure we'll find out.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #221,848
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:19am Apr 21, 2010 11:19am
Quoting Scrat
yes, but i was expecting 143.78 and i explained why. so far everything is going according to the plan.

i have a bearish bias medium term because last weekly close showed there should be more to downside, and now i am just waiting for the show to begin. when i look at daily/4, i think we are almost there - unless we get a daily close above 143.80, then i will reconsider.
Gotcha, wasn't clear on your bias (not that I need to be) because last post sounded bullish. I think daily is ready to drop but we're waiting still on 4H to align.

Also, I think the drop would be due more in part to Yen strength rather than Sterling weakness but that's just my opinion.
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  • #221,849
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:23am Apr 21, 2010 11:23am
Quoting Scrat
yes, but i was expecting 143.78 and i explained why. so far everything is going according to the plan.

i have a bearish bias medium term because last weekly close showed there should be more to downside, and now i am just waiting for the show to begin. when i look at daily/4, i think we are almost there - unless we get a daily close above 143.80, then i will reconsider.
I see if the price break up the trendline there. We may enter Bull threshold.
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  • #221,850
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:24am Apr 21, 2010 11:24am

Price action is very choppy here and although the market triggered a double top in the early week that would suggest a potential drop to 137.00, setbacks have stalled out by some solid former resistance turned support just over 139.00. From here, it is too difficult to establish clear directional bias, and we would recommend waiting for a break back above 145.00 or below 139.40 for a better indication of where the market is headed.


  • #221,851
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:26am Apr 21, 2010 11:26am
Ugh... sorry for the multiple posts guys but the more I zoom out and really take a look at what's going on with the daily chart the more I feel like we could be in for a serious drop... like 1,000+ pips.

Cracking the most recent low near 139.50 would quickly put the daily uptrend support in jeapordy. Breaking that and we could run down to 135/136 or so. Assuming that happens the next logical step would be a run up to 139.50 trendline to test old support as resistance followed by another drop to who knows where... 133, 130?

Obviously this is all pure speculation, but something to keep an eye out for. The DOW seems precarious at these levels and volatility has been very low. A correction is over due in my opinion and it seems there could be more poor news that surfaces whether regarding Goldman, Greece, etc. or something else that could drive a little bit of a panic.

A scenario like this wouldn't surprise me in the least.
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  • #221,852
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:26am Apr 21, 2010 11:26am
At this point, more recovery could still be seen in GBP/JPY as long as 141.53 minor support holds. But after all, we'd expected upside to be limited below 145.00 resistance and bring at least one more fall. On the downside, below 141.52 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Break of 139.36 will target 61.8% retracement of 132.13 to 145.00 at 137.04 next.
In the bigger picture, the choppy fall from 163.05 might have completed with three waves down to 132.13 already and the corrective structure in turn argue that whole medium term rally from 2009 low of 118.18 is still in progress. However, upside of the current rise from 132.13 is still limited by the near term falling channel and well below 150.68 resistance thus there is no confirmation yet. We'll stay neutral first.
  • #221,853
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:27am Apr 21, 2010 11:27am
Quoting rjtraders

Price action is very choppy here and although the market triggered a double top in the early week that would suggest a potential drop to 137.00, setbacks have stalled out by some solid former resistance turned support just over 139.00. From here, it is too difficult to establish clear directional bias, and we would recommend waiting for a break back above 145.00 or below 139.40 for a better indication of where the market is headed.



Who is "we"? (read: who's analysis are you ripping off?)
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  • #221,854
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:33am Apr 21, 2010 11:33am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting Geppy
Who is "we"? (read: who's analysis are you ripping off?)
I think this one:
http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0100421111412/

"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #221,855
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:35am Apr 21, 2010 11:35am
this is dailyfx.....


Quoting Geppy
Who is "we"? (read: who's analysis are you ripping off?)
  • #221,856
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:54am Apr 21, 2010 11:54am
my seriours advise never ever go long gbpjpy.......................world bigget crisis is coming u can see 1st dubai than greek portugal spain uk election and uk economy problems and today belguim next usa also coming.......if one bad news come out than news to come out...
regards


On the upside, above 145.00 again will affirm the bullish case that rise from 132.13 is resuming medium term rally from 118.18. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 132.13 at 151.23 will affirm this case and set the stage for another high above 163.05. On the downside, however, break of 134.53 support will revive the case that GBP/JPY has topped out at 163.05 and will turn outlook bearish again for 118.18.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction from 118.81.

On the downside, pullback is likely to be limited to 142.00/10 and 141.00 should hold, bring such a rise later. A daily close below 141.00 would suggest top has possibly been formed but only a drop below 139.30/35 (previous resistance) would confirm and weakness to 138.00 and later 136.00 would follow.

Elliott Wave Analysis

The long-term downtrend from 570.99 (29 Feb 1980) is labeled as an impulsive wave with III with circle ended at 129.77 (20 Apr 1995) and the corrective rebound to 251.12 (20 Jul 2007) is treated as wave IV with circle and the wave V with circle selloff from 251.12 is still unfolding and will bring another test of 118.87 low, possibly in Q4, however, further steep fall below there is unlikely and 115.00 shall contain downside.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. In other words, the whole down trend shouldn't be over yet and would probably extend further to test 100 psychological level after completing the fourth wave consolidation from 118.81. However, note that sustained trading above 167.34 fibo resistance will seriously dampen this bearish case.
  • #221,857
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:55am Apr 21, 2010 11:55am
Quoting PandoraBox
WHat I see now....Weekly and monthly look bullish
  • #221,858
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:09pm Apr 21, 2010 12:09pm
Indecisive PA right now.. And I sense something big is gonna happen... pretty scary right now. The price don't want to go up or down. Its waiting something
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #221,859
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:13pm Apr 21, 2010 12:13pm
Quoting Kofmaster
Indecisive PA right now.. And I sense something big is gonna happen... pretty scary right now. The price don't want to go up or down. Its waiting something
Agreed, I still favor the downside for reason previously stated, lots of resistance north of here and perhaps admittedly a bit of my own bias so take it with a grain of salt.

Price just seems to get slapped on the wrist every time it tries to go up and although it gets pulled back when it tries to go down, there have been more instances of it trying higher than lower. The more it's rejected, the stronger that resistance becomes... usually only a matter of time before it fails completely.
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  • #221,860
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:17pm Apr 21, 2010 12:17pm
A lot of confusion now..I believe that the time is nigh for a reversal. The bear is gathering steam...just a touch of 141 and the whole bias in weekly and daily will flip into bear territory and the move southward will be smooth sailing. Now I am going to bed..position still open ...no sl. Que sera sera.
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