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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,481
  • Apr 21, 2010 4:57am Apr 21, 2010 4:57am
actually the only limitation in the master's method is our own liquidity. this is where our rigidity lies. this is where i would guess most of you hit a brick wall as well

if you trade too small, you wont make the penny collected worth hours vested. so like the boss said, make sure you bring enough money, if you want to do battle lol!

so many here would need a long time of regression testing to find the sweet spot. well thats my finding...im not sure if anyone would agree tho.
  • #14,482
  • Apr 21, 2010 5:00am Apr 21, 2010 5:00am
Quoting Cyrus
I've actually read In The Zone a few times. Didn't really like it.
I found that it too restrictive. A whole set of do this dont do that, etc etc.
Saying things like, "be nimble" was like saying, "grow taller" to me.
But HOW does one "be nimble/patient" etc etc?
It was the psychology behind it that is more important.
Reflecting on WHY some constant mistakes are made.... why are some...
Yep. The right "set up" is not easy to reach. I still observe it on myselve. Psychology is very, very important. But without practise and failures, i am convinced, that it is not possible to understand. U can only study it, but not handle it.
It is like cyrcleing around those problems. This was my method at university.
-first start reading.
-quickly read the whole book
-read the end of the book
-start reading and study slowly from the beggining, ilustrate parts with colors.
-Reading some parts of the book, read end of the book again...
..................... organical chemistry is maybe as difficult as forex "mind set up"......
  • #14,483
  • Apr 21, 2010 5:36am Apr 21, 2010 5:36am
Quoting Cyrus
I've actually read In The Zone a few times. Didn't really like it.
I found that it too restrictive. A whole set of do this dont do that, etc etc.
Saying things like, "be nimble" was like saying, "grow taller" to me.
It was the psychology behind it that is more important.
Reflecting on WHY some constant mistakes are made.... why are some...
Hi Cyrus

The list is not a drill. The point of the list is to act as a reminder of what I typically do or don't do in a trade.. All I want it to be successful in my trading. Yes if you have been trading successfully for many years, it (trading) comes as second nature to you then I guess you would not need such a list. And you would have reflexes such as catching a thrown ball. I'm afraid I do not yet fall into that category.

Most books/systems teach you to be rigid and I agree the Zone book was a bit boring but the gist of it is akin to FTI's feeling the pulse. However, the bit I took away from the book is that

- Anything can happen

- You don't need to know what is going to happen to make money

- Every moment in the market is unique.

Many " experts" say you must have a plan and do this if that happens etc but FTI also has pointed the above out and it is where you realise that indicators or TA can leave you vulnerable.

"But HOW does one "be nimble/patient" etc etc.Saying things like, "be nimble" was like saying, "grow taller" to me. ?"

Be nimble to me does not mean grow taller, but rather don't be rigid. Be nimble enough to chop trades, add to trades or countertrade etc.

Be patient means you may think your trade is wrong but give it time or sometimes there is a better place or time to fight (trade) then the now moment so don't trade right now. Do you play football or any sport? Winning a point/game comes with patience. If you have no patience you are less likely to win. Sometimes I am very impatient and bail out of what could have been winning trades.

- Let Ego go

means it's okay to be wrong. Some people (before this thread, that was me) can't accept that.

- Hope not/Pray not.

Just reminds me that you cannot trade on hope. I was guilty of that, and it's good to keep yourself in reality.

So this list is to remind me that there are no rigid rules in making money in this game and it reminds me of what I typically do when I err. It reminds me of where to be mentally. It is not a set of rules.

Thanks for the Bruce Lee quote. I like Bruce Lee's (and of course FTI's) reference to being like water. Its much shorter and easier to understand

Agree with you totally. One must be free

All the best to you.
  • #14,484
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:20am Apr 21, 2010 6:20am
Quoting Cyrus
I've actually read In The Zone a few times. Didn't really like it.
I found that it too restrictive. A whole set of do this dont do that, etc etc.
Saying things like, "be nimble" was like saying, "grow taller" to me.
But HOW does one "be nimble/patient" etc etc?
It was the psychology behind it that is more important.
Reflecting on WHY some constant mistakes are made.... why are some...
AT LAST! Somebody said it. Couldn't agree more. Love the martial arts comparison aswell.
  • #14,485
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:37am Apr 21, 2010 6:37am
Hi, guys

Hey, GEfx, are you still holding to your EUR/USD shorts from yesterday? I hope you are

Today I tried an attack north from 1.3432 EUR/USD, but things didn't work out and I made a fast rescue and flipped south at 1.3432 . PA broke south and I didn't dare to add more attacks. Now I look at the chart realizing that I missed the opportunities and still not daring to add. Although I have a winning position I feel stupid(That's wierd, lol ) for not being able to do the right things and manage it properly and get more or less the best of it. I don't regret the missed opportunities, the problem is I still don't know how to manage it.

Regards, MyTbo
  • #14,486
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:07am Apr 21, 2010 7:07am
hey i gave up "the Zone" half way as well , nothing interesting....
market wizard and livermore book are the things i read repetitively , other than TAF that is

good trading n good day
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #14,487
  • Apr 21, 2010 9:02am Apr 21, 2010 9:02am
Hi all,
I had been thinking for some time now,whether i should point the direction.
When I presented the MM skews.
I said fibo is minimum stable skew.
I gave you chaps hands held by that skew example.
Seems many of you didn't put your thinking cap on.
Because there is no evidence of what i expected to see, it sure isn't any where in this thread.
i say again, think.
With some hands on practise already, it should be alot easier now.
Another hint
Spiral within spiral. If you not get hint, then read "The tunnel thru the air" again. Its in there, the WD gann secret.
I will not accept any discussion on this MM topic.
If you bring up the subject, then its the end for me.

regards

PS: if you didn't get the copy given years ago , check with seniors discreetly.
  • #14,488
  • Apr 21, 2010 9:05am Apr 21, 2010 9:05am
Here is some experience from my trading. Today i started at 8am... Everything was normal. So i started some small positions... I dont know why, in some hours i was SURE, that this will be EUR bull today. And i went long with some small positions.
But, after some moves, i found myself in some DD with those positions. But still i had in my head..long,long,long.
I added more positions. I was nervous, but still hoped in long...
After some moves i had to close all positions... and asked myself: "What was it?" After some relax, i started to recover it. Now DD is 2%, dreamming about oversold EUR again?... Illusion scorpion can be everywhere.... good lesson, but painfull...
regards
  • #14,489
  • Edited 9:41am Apr 21, 2010 9:11am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting fti
Hi all,
I had been thinking for some time now,whether i should point the direction.
When I presented the MM skews.
I said fibo is minimum stable skew.
I gave you chaps hands held by that skew example.
Seems many of you didn't put your thinking cap on.
Because there is no evidence of what i expected to see, it sure isn't any where in this thread.
i say again, think.
With some hands on practise already, it should be alot easier now.
Another hint
Spiral within spiral. If you not get hint, then read "The tunnel thru the air" again. Its in there, the...
hello Fti. Good to see you

I strongly try to understand and practise, how volatility and speed of market work. Trying to add and withdraw positions, how the market pulses... It is very important to practise it... I need more time, i am still on some zero point for 3-4month... (no loss, no gain...)...

If i can ask...For controll .... I understand it like this :

There is the market structure, changes in some current trend are there because of that. This is "the pulse" we can catch... So we can drive the main trend and INSIDE of it, we can add and make some "quick volatility money". Snowballs are skews to realize this, because of the size of retracements... But one must be really pro to catch it with some accuracy.... ?
  • #14,490
  • Edited 10:42am Apr 21, 2010 9:41am | Edited 10:42am
Quoting Fana
hello fti. Good to see you

If i can ask...For controll .... I understand it like this :

There is the market structure, changes in some current trend are there because of that. This is "the pulse" we can catch... So we can drive the main trend and INSIDE of it, we can add and make some "quick volatility money". Snowballs are skews to realize this, because of the size of retracements... But one must be really pro to catch it with some accuracy.... ?
Please not use my name in postings.

To help you clear your head.
Market structure is your access and your location in the food chain pyramid.
Markets is driven by demand supply of participants. Buyers and sellers. Momentum determines aggression and stance of the participant. In one word urgency. All this ia part of analysis.
When you expose your self in taking sides , you must be prepared for strategy. In case you are outtimes or to attack when ever possible. The Mm determines your abilities in accordance to your capital. When you are at risk to markets the focus is the continuing analysis and your COST. Accuracy has nothing to do with trading. Only make your ego BIG. Only important issue is your cost and the equilibrium of your MM in relations to your cap. Opinions, like the ass, everyone has one. And it stinks. Don't try build opnion of what the markets can or cannot do. Flow like the river.

regards

Again

Stance
Inserted Video


Flow
Inserted Video


you force and you die, whatever excuse you have for forcing. If cannot understand, take katana lessons, learn how to use that.

Winning the ironman race means nothing. Only enlarge the ego. Ability to cross finish line in 1 piece, is the goal.
  • #14,491
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:01am Apr 21, 2010 10:01am
Quoting fti
Please not use my name in postings.

To help you clear your head.
Market structure is your access and your location in the food chain pyramid.
Markets is driven by demand supply of participants. Buyers and sellers. Momentum determines aggression and stance of the participant. In one word urgency. All this ia part of analysis.
When you expose your self in taking sides , you must be prepared for strategy. In case you are outtimes or to attack when ever possible. The Mm determines your abilities in accordance to your capital. When you are at risk to...
Thank you Fti, i need much more practise...
  • #14,492
  • Edited 10:35am Apr 21, 2010 10:17am | Edited 10:35am
"....Spiral within spiral. If you not get hint, then read "The tunnel thru the air" again. Its in there, the WD gann secret."

 Quote from the thread - "There is no ideal formulation for risk adventure,
but most pros work on the basis of dividing the risk capital,10X
and then a tenth of that resultant. which puts the initial exposure in a pittance state.


And most of us do not use leverage as basis calculus.
However if leverage was utilsed, it should reflect the principal at risk rather than the value at risk basis.

Geneerally, your base of the skews should be 1/100 of your portfolio. The skew of the spiral within the spiral is a fibo progression at the most conservative..."

I would be grateful if someone could kindly post the "tunnel thru the air" again or point the way. I missed it when it was first posted and now it does not seem to be available on the thread. Being a Junior Member I cannot send PM's to ask seniors or anyone for that matter directly. Much appreciated.
  • #14,493
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:39am Apr 21, 2010 10:39am
Quoting jest1081
actually the only limitation in the master's method is our own liquidity. this is where our rigidity lies. this is where i would guess most of you hit a brick wall as well

if you trade too small, you wont make the penny collected worth hours vested. so like the boss said, make sure you bring enough money, if you want to do battle lol!

so many here would need a long time of regression testing to find the sweet spot. well thats my finding...im not sure if anyone would agree tho.
I agree

Market don't move in straight lines, the opportunity to buy low sell high is always there if we have liquidity. If our troop size is too big and we can only afford to skew 1,1,2 we are more dependent to be "right", but if our troop size is small and we can skew with more levels we have better chance for market to come back to us (not to say it always does). No matter how hard we work to improve our dancing skill and discipline in the final analysis no one can predict the market, our capitalization, and how we deploy it, is our only ammunition.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #14,494
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:53am Apr 21, 2010 10:53am
Quoting fti
Hi all,
I had been thinking for some time now,whether i should point the direction.
When I presented the MM skews.
I said fibo is minimum stable skew.
I gave you chaps hands held by that skew example.
Seems many of you didn't put your thinking cap on.
Because there is no evidence of what i expected to see, it sure isn't any where in this thread.
i say again, think.
With some hands on practise already, it should be alot easier now.
Another hint
Spiral within spiral. If you not get hint, then read "The tunnel thru the air" again. Its in there, the...
Please, will someone post or PM me a link, to throw some light on my fruitless speculation over spíral within spiral.


Regards,
Baifu
  • #14,495
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:54am Apr 21, 2010 10:54am
Quoting Dl17
[i]I would be grateful if someone could kindly post the "tunnel thru the air" again
please not ask anyone to violate copyright laws in public.
  • #14,496
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:13am Apr 21, 2010 11:13am
Hi fti, I am glad to see you back. Hope you are well. It is a very nice day where I live with lots of sun and cool conditions (60F). I saw you post on MM skew and have great respect for you trying to go over this topic again. I would struggle greatly with trying to communicate it clearly over this thread, and I think it is difficult to understand for many people (as noted above -- yikes!). Best wishes my friend and trade well.
  • #14,497
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:15am Apr 21, 2010 11:15am
Quoting fti
please not ask anyone to violate copyright laws in public.

Understood. Furthermore, I have found a legitimate copy on the web and will buy it.

Regards
  • #14,498
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:42am Apr 21, 2010 11:42am
Quoting Baifu
I agree

Market don't move in straight lines, the opportunity to buy low sell high is always there if we have liquidity. If our troop size is too big and we can only afford to skew 1,1,2 we are more dependent to be "right", but if our troop size is small and we can skew with more levels we have better chance for market to come back to us (not to say it always does). No matter how hard we work to improve our dancing skill and discipline in the final analysis no one can predict the market, our capitalization, and how we deploy it, is...
my own difficulty is time constrain (despite being able to sit in front of the screen whole day). Especially when the expansion and contraction of prices spill over to several sessions. I belief many will have problem when they are stuck and the battle spills over to hourly charts. That is why you can see some of them (probably more) modifying their MO to adapt to their limitations.
  • #14,499
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:48am Apr 21, 2010 11:48am
Quoting Dl17
Understood. Furthermore, I have found a legitimate copy on the web and will buy it.

Regards
Did you try Scribd ?
  • #14,500
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:19pm Apr 21, 2010 12:19pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Did you try Scribd ?
Saw your post just in time! Got it. Thanks a mil
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