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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #221,601
  • Apr 20, 2010 2:00pm Apr 20, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting Myrza
143.6 looks like a nice place to short

Strong resistanxe here on the 1H chart. 100% Fibo.

Whats your TP?
  • #221,602
  • Apr 20, 2010 2:01pm Apr 20, 2010 2:01pm
no, it's still moving, but doesn't worth the effort to watch it.
Quoting special0nefx
Chart is freeze there already.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #221,603
  • Apr 20, 2010 2:03pm Apr 20, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting Scrat
no, it's still moving, but doesn't worth the effort to watch it.
Just curious today will close at where now
  • #221,604
  • Apr 20, 2010 2:12pm Apr 20, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting kingrex
Strong resistanxe here on the 1H chart. 100% Fibo.

Whats your TP?
FE levels.. 140 and 138.2 looks like good place to TP. But I will close at any H4 upswing...

But this down move is not confirmed yet
  • #221,605
  • Apr 20, 2010 2:33pm Apr 20, 2010 2:33pm
here is what i think about current situation on g-j. i always start from highest timeframe, where i look for direction, and then i go down from there for confirmation.

1. monthly:
- february close = 135.53. this last major support
- march close = 141.87. this is last minor support.
now we look for confirmation/infirmation on weekly chart.

2. weekly:
- last weekly close = 141.55, LOWER than march close. this means that bears set a foot on bulls territory, even if just for retracement. next, we look for two things:
a. where we don't believe anymore in this bearish scenario = 143.78/144.66 (and even 145.02), and
b. where bears could push it = next support, which is 135.53 (see above, february close).

3. daily:
- now we look for position of daily close relative to weekly close. well this is where things are a little bit complicated in our case.
last weekly close was 141.55. normally, if bears were out to play, we should have seen yesterday a daily close LOWER than 141.55; not the case. what this means is that bulls are not ready to give up, and price was pushed back up. BUT remember that this is daily chart, and is not as powerful as monthly/weekly, so we must keep in mind that bearish bias is still in place and that we still have room up to 143.78/144.66 before we can say that bears are gone for good.

what to do:
- wait for a break above 143.78/144.66 for a resumption of the uptrend, or
- wait for a clear break of 141.55 (daily close below 141.55, or a new weekly low) and ride the dip to 135.53 area.

Quoting uncletrumpet
Scrat i have been following you for a long time. Please I will like you to post your trading journal so that we can study more of your trading analysis as regard talk on monthly close, weekly close and daily close. When will you get it posted.

I am eagerly waiting.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #221,606
  • Apr 20, 2010 2:44pm Apr 20, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting rjtraders
ithink 143.6 to 143.8 for short this bounce iwas expected why this bounce was expected bcoz last time 17march gbpjpy drop 500pips from 139.33 to 134.6 this time from same level bounce tomorrow im pretty sure asia session again decline gbpjpy...donot miss change gbpjpy not going 145 better donot watch dreams range 139 to 144...
happy trade,best regards
price is over 50 and 200 SMA on H1 and H4; so bears will get confidence after price closed below 50 SMA only
till then still there is room for up move
  • #221,607
  • Apr 20, 2010 2:50pm Apr 20, 2010 2:50pm
I have copied all these analysis down and I have printed it all. I need to work more on these things. we are all here to learn.

Last week you said the market would retrace down be nearly 120 pips and it went down by over 200, since then I have always taken you very seriously. thanks alot. I log in to search for scrat daily since i have lost contact with many guys like Auslanco and karmostaji. Please dont run away like them.

Quoting Scrat
here is what i think about current situation on g-j. i always start from highest timeframe, where i look for direction, and then i go down from there for confirmation.

1. monthly:
- february close = 135.53. this last major support
- march close = 141.87. this is last minor support.
now we look for confirmation/infirmation on weekly chart.

2. weekly:
- last weekly close = 141.55, LOWER than march close. this means that bears set a foot on bulls territory, even if just for retracement. next, we look for two things:
a. where we don't believe anymore...
  • #221,608
  • Apr 20, 2010 2:58pm Apr 20, 2010 2:58pm
Treasuries seem to be rallying in the wake of the equities market ALSO going up.

That is good news for the bears.

NM
  • #221,609
  • Apr 20, 2010 2:59pm Apr 20, 2010 2:59pm
yes room always have..........ithink go down 143.6 target 135 to 125 ................regards


The British Pound is likely to face increased volatility over the next 24 hours of trading as economists forecast jobless claims in the U.K. to drop another 10.0K in March following the 32.3K contraction in the previous month, while the Bank of England is scheduled to release the minutes from the policy meeting earlier this month at 8:30 GMT.
Trading the News: U.K. Jobless Claims Change

What’s Expected
Time of release: 04/21/2010 08:30 GMT, 04:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact : GBPUSD
Expected: -10.0K
Previous: -32.3K


Jobless claims in the U.K. fell at the fastest pace since 1997 as the number of people receiving unemployment benefits unexpectedly slipped 32.3K in February after expanding a revised 5.3K during the previous month. As a result, the claimant count rate slipped to 4.9% from 5.0% in January, while the number of people employed people during the three months through January retreated 54K to a four-year low of 28.9 million. Despite drop on jobless claims, the Bank of England held a cautious outlook for the region and expects businesses to keep a lid on employment as policy makers anticipate to see a moderate recovery this year, and the central bank is likely to maintain a loose policy stance throughout the first-half of 2010 in order to balance the risks for the economy.








Quoting metlife777
price is over 50 and 200 SMA on H1 and H4; so bears will get confidence after price closed below 50 SMA only
till then still there is room for up move
  • #221,610
  • Apr 20, 2010 3:04pm Apr 20, 2010 3:04pm
Quoting metlife777
price is over 50 and 200 SMA on H1 and H4; so bears will get confidence after price closed below 50 SMA only
till then still there is room for up move
here is the H4 chart which shows 4 possible targets for bullish move:
1. light green Pitchfork (currently turning down)- possible top
2. red Pitchfork - 143.6
3. orange Pitchfork - 145.2
4. white channel - 144.5

from any of those targets the most probable way is to south
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  • #221,611
  • Apr 20, 2010 3:14pm Apr 20, 2010 3:14pm
im sure from 143.6 go down......good luck....




Quoting metlife777
here is the H4 chart which shows 4 possible targets for bullish move:
1. light green Pitchfork (currently turning down)- possible top
2. red Pitchfork - 143.6
3. orange Pitchfork - 145.2
4. white channel - 144.5

from any of those targets the most probable way is to south
  • #221,612
  • Apr 20, 2010 3:32pm Apr 20, 2010 3:32pm
Quoting rjtraders
im sure from 143.6 go down......good luck....
can you explain?
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #221,613
  • Apr 20, 2010 3:44pm Apr 20, 2010 3:44pm
ifeel R143.6 is strong enough for bring decline....
regards

Quoting Kofmaster
can you explain?
  • #221,614
  • Apr 20, 2010 3:50pm Apr 20, 2010 3:50pm
ithink for short 143.600 very very very very safe.....
donot worry...close ur eyes and short many pips is come.....with out any hasitation and thinking short ok...im also shorting...
good luck...

Quoting Kofmaster
can you explain?
  • #221,615
  • Apr 20, 2010 3:56pm Apr 20, 2010 3:56pm
ai ai... back to sqaure one,, and i have no clue where is next .. a break above 145 looks more promising than a break below 139,if you look at USD/JPY and other jpy crosses daily charts

the medium/long term rally in USD/JPY contnue ,cad/jpy -bullish engulf on daily, aud/jpy morning star on daily ,aswell the gbp/jpy

daily close above 143.20 dont look for me that bears are still in control and bulls might have take it over and push it to 148, and above ..

there is still ress at top to push it lower ,,but its now a sit out game and no trade is the best trade right now ----confused ..
  • #221,616
  • Apr 20, 2010 3:59pm Apr 20, 2010 3:59pm
Quoting fullhouse
ai ai... back to sqaure one,, and i have no clue where is next .. a break above 145 looks more promising than a break below 139,if you look at USD/JPY and other jpy crosses daily charts

the medium/long term rally in USD/JPY contnue ,cad/jpy -bullish engulf on daily, aud/jpy morning star on daily ,aswell the gbp/jpy

daily close above 143.20 dont look for me that bears are still in control and bulls might have take it over and push it to 148, and above ..

there is still ress at top to push it lower ,,but its now a sit out game and no trade...

Maybe you should go long CAD/JPY again
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #221,617
  • Apr 20, 2010 4:02pm Apr 20, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting Geppy
Maybe you should go long CAD/JPY again

lucky i did catch all of the cad pairs of the fundie on long ,,,720 pips
  • #221,618
  • Apr 20, 2010 4:09pm Apr 20, 2010 4:09pm
Quoting Geppy
Maybe you should go long CAD/JPY again

i might press the button on long on all pairs in a minute ,,143.20 will be the supp from now on if we go above and then lower i cant see will happen... but its still damm confusing right now
  • #221,619
  • Apr 20, 2010 4:17pm Apr 20, 2010 4:17pm
USD/JPY chart...

H&S might be busy forming ,if we take out the high of 93.72 somewehre in the next session or in a coulpld of hours and then a retrace will happen to form the R shoulder at 92.50 ,, but then from there on ,i see 98- 101 somewehrre ...
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  • #221,620
  • Apr 20, 2010 4:22pm Apr 20, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting Geppy
Maybe you should go long CAD/JPY again
Same here trading more cad/jpy and aus/jpy than gbp/jpy, because it is trending more and moving 200 pips a day.
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