Dear 4X Following Friends:
The most valuable scientific exhibit I ever saw in my life was at the 1964 New York World's Fair in Flushing Meadows, Queens, NY, where Shea Stadium where the Mets play now is and also where the tennis championships are played in the (relatively) new Arthur Ashe Tennis Complex. I haunted that fair. I was there almost every day and of all the fantastic stuff that there was to see there, the exhibit that grabbed me the most was the Bell Curve of Standard Distribution demonstration. Next to Foucault's Pendulum, which proves the rotation of the earth, this was the most useful, educational, dramatic and sensational scientific exhibit I ever saw.
Imagine a rectangle about 30 feet long and about 20 feet high with glass walls on both sides. Inside the rectangle was a series of vertical strips of metal which created about 100 divisions running the length of the rectangle. Every three hours, this machine would dump about 100,000 steel ball bearings into the rectangle at the top and these would bounce around all over the place until they finally settled into one or another of those metal divisions which were just slightly bigger than the diameter of the ball bearings, so it took a lot of bouncing around before they finally were able to settle into one. On the inside of the glass walls on either side was painted the Bell Curve of Standard Distribution.
It would take about three hours for the last of the bouncing ball bearings to settle into its chosen division and when the demonstration was finished, the ball bearings had fallen into the 100 divisions exactly in the form of the Bell Curve of Standard Distribution and matched to the millimeter the Curve painted on both sides of the glass! 8 times a day this demonstration went on, 24 hours a day, every day the fair was open and never once did the ball bearings fail to fall into the divisions in the exact form of the Bell Curve. Never once. Never missed by so much as a millimeter. Think about it.
What it means is simply this: You could never predict which division any particular ball bearing would fall into. This was random in the extreme. The odds against such a prediction were 100-1 per ball bearing. But the ultimate result of the combined action of 100,000 ball bearings was as predictable as sunrise, sunset, eclipses and the tides. Talk about "Old Faithful!"
So it is with our trading. If we have a good method which produces a decent winning percentage at good prices, then over a statistically significant series of repetitions, that winning percentage will assert itself although any particular trade or even series of trades may suffer a random and unpredictable result.
What defeats us is haphazard application: We tend to go bouncing around from method to method promiscuously like Scarlett O'Hara flirting around with her coterie of admiring suitors at the ball! As soon as one method hits a bad period, we abandon it and move on to another method just in time to miss the next batch of winners on the first method and catch the next batch of losers on the next method. Then we return to the first method just in time to catch the next batch of losers on it and miss the next batch of winners on the second! Ever happened to you? Of course it has! And we wonder why we can't win? This is why trading teachers tend to emphasize systematic trading. Any system, they tell you, is better than no system at all. And it's true.
Each and every one of us has everything we need to beat this market for big bucks. But we can't do it without applying the signals to our trading in a systematic fashion.
Have a great weekend, and remember, we're back to work Sunday night Eastern Time with our great, 24-hour a day market.
We have an immense number of unique trading advantages in this market, so let's get out there and win! It's just as easy as losing, you know, and a lot more fun! And if anybody tells you you can't do it, dump them and find some other people who will support your efforts and encourage you. Avoid negative people like the plague! They have nothing to offer to you. They are pure poison.
Avanti!
Respectfully submitted,
Yr Fellow 4X Trader,
hiyo
The most valuable scientific exhibit I ever saw in my life was at the 1964 New York World's Fair in Flushing Meadows, Queens, NY, where Shea Stadium where the Mets play now is and also where the tennis championships are played in the (relatively) new Arthur Ashe Tennis Complex. I haunted that fair. I was there almost every day and of all the fantastic stuff that there was to see there, the exhibit that grabbed me the most was the Bell Curve of Standard Distribution demonstration. Next to Foucault's Pendulum, which proves the rotation of the earth, this was the most useful, educational, dramatic and sensational scientific exhibit I ever saw.
Imagine a rectangle about 30 feet long and about 20 feet high with glass walls on both sides. Inside the rectangle was a series of vertical strips of metal which created about 100 divisions running the length of the rectangle. Every three hours, this machine would dump about 100,000 steel ball bearings into the rectangle at the top and these would bounce around all over the place until they finally settled into one or another of those metal divisions which were just slightly bigger than the diameter of the ball bearings, so it took a lot of bouncing around before they finally were able to settle into one. On the inside of the glass walls on either side was painted the Bell Curve of Standard Distribution.
It would take about three hours for the last of the bouncing ball bearings to settle into its chosen division and when the demonstration was finished, the ball bearings had fallen into the 100 divisions exactly in the form of the Bell Curve of Standard Distribution and matched to the millimeter the Curve painted on both sides of the glass! 8 times a day this demonstration went on, 24 hours a day, every day the fair was open and never once did the ball bearings fail to fall into the divisions in the exact form of the Bell Curve. Never once. Never missed by so much as a millimeter. Think about it.
What it means is simply this: You could never predict which division any particular ball bearing would fall into. This was random in the extreme. The odds against such a prediction were 100-1 per ball bearing. But the ultimate result of the combined action of 100,000 ball bearings was as predictable as sunrise, sunset, eclipses and the tides. Talk about "Old Faithful!"
So it is with our trading. If we have a good method which produces a decent winning percentage at good prices, then over a statistically significant series of repetitions, that winning percentage will assert itself although any particular trade or even series of trades may suffer a random and unpredictable result.
What defeats us is haphazard application: We tend to go bouncing around from method to method promiscuously like Scarlett O'Hara flirting around with her coterie of admiring suitors at the ball! As soon as one method hits a bad period, we abandon it and move on to another method just in time to miss the next batch of winners on the first method and catch the next batch of losers on the next method. Then we return to the first method just in time to catch the next batch of losers on it and miss the next batch of winners on the second! Ever happened to you? Of course it has! And we wonder why we can't win? This is why trading teachers tend to emphasize systematic trading. Any system, they tell you, is better than no system at all. And it's true.
Each and every one of us has everything we need to beat this market for big bucks. But we can't do it without applying the signals to our trading in a systematic fashion.
Have a great weekend, and remember, we're back to work Sunday night Eastern Time with our great, 24-hour a day market.
We have an immense number of unique trading advantages in this market, so let's get out there and win! It's just as easy as losing, you know, and a lot more fun! And if anybody tells you you can't do it, dump them and find some other people who will support your efforts and encourage you. Avoid negative people like the plague! They have nothing to offer to you. They are pure poison.
Avanti!
Respectfully submitted,
Yr Fellow 4X Trader,
hiyo
