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  • #401
  • Apr 20, 2010 4:34am Apr 20, 2010 4:34am
German news are killing me on Euro
  • #402
  • Apr 20, 2010 4:34am Apr 20, 2010 4:34am
Quoting jeurre
cool,lovejoy80. just a bit more understanding, is it correct to see the trade direction synchronize the trendline slope? I mean, if short, then a falling TL, long with rising TL?

jeurre
Yeah...just like the GU trade setup and look at the E/A setup Nasir posted earlier this morning.

Where a falling TL meets a clear PPZ area with 50/61 fib confluence this is one of the setups I like (learned from Nasir and Rac). If you can have the PPz on BRN and have divergence too then this would be a great setup.

Also look at other correlating pairs e.g. Oil for CAD, Gold for AUD and Dow for JPY to give us clues i.e. when things are all alligned...
  • #403
  • Apr 20, 2010 4:36am Apr 20, 2010 4:36am
Quoting jeurre
it seems breakout trades make more sense to me. retrace play is still my weak area so far, had a series of 3 loss in a raw trading retrace today
Looks good ... why play EU and U/CHF though? They are heavily correlated so just play 1 and increase risk?
  • #404
  • Apr 20, 2010 4:38am Apr 20, 2010 4:38am
the break of triple bar highs on eu, and the bearish outside bar of u/chf makes me attempted to enter.

good point to trade one pair if closely correlated, didn't think of that, nice

jeurre

Quoting lovejoy80
Looks good ... why play EU and U/CHF though? They are heavily correlated so just play 1 and increase risk?
  • #405
  • Apr 20, 2010 4:44am Apr 20, 2010 4:44am
Quoting lovejoy80
where is second connecting point 14th April?

The TL that was valid until broken was December - Jan - March highs i.e. a TL with three valid touches and rejections...moving the TL to touch the April high is curve fitting IMO and it only has 2 touches.

Personally I would not give much weight to the TL...
Yes April 14, you know his method. Currently around 1.355, but lately he is anticipating his entries because he missed some moves.
I also followed him because I am particularly bad in trading E/U and G/U.

His fundamental stuff is great.
  • #406
  • Apr 20, 2010 4:45am Apr 20, 2010 4:45am
oops, I missed out to see your pic, sorry. here is my trendline, coming from bottom with two touches previously, which made me feel additional conflu on top of the ppz and fib


Quoting lovejoy80
I dont trade this pair...but here is what my chart would look like.

I dont like that TL and would prefer a falling trendline or a round number as further confluence...i.e. as much confluence as possible in order to take this....not to say it might still work out but for the really good touch trades you need as mcuh confluence as possible...personally I like TL, fibs and clear PPZ if we havea round number and divergence then that would be superb! But I like PPZ and fibs as an absolute minimum but more comfortable if round number or TL is there...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy h4 apr.20.2010 my trendline.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #407
  • Apr 20, 2010 4:45am Apr 20, 2010 4:45am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yeah...just like the GU trade setup and look at the E/A setup Nasir posted earlier this morning.

Where a falling TL meets a clear PPZ area with 50/61 fib confluence this is one of the setups I like (learned from Nasir and Rac). If you can have the PPz on BRN and have divergence too then this would be a great setup.

Also look at other correlating pairs e.g. Oil for CAD, Gold for AUD and Dow for JPY to give us clues i.e. when things are all alligned...
Here is another chart as an example from yesterday of a good touch trade setup

Confluence of TL, daily PPZ and in between 50/61 fibs...

I didnt take it but definitely should have.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #408
  • Apr 20, 2010 4:48am Apr 20, 2010 4:48am
Quoting lovejoy80
lol..what is this...just loaded it. What does it use to predict the future price?

Yes it is some future price indicator but it can show you areas of confluence. SO dont use the indy for trades. It is more for people who find it a bit harder to spot them right away who need to learn more. And cant spot them right away( Like a bit myself now)

Oke here is a example ho to use it

http://i40.tinypic.com/29b2ebk.jpg
  • #409
  • Apr 20, 2010 4:52am Apr 20, 2010 4:52am
thanks, lovejoy80, nicely illustrated

Quoting lovejoy80
Here is another chart as an example from yesterday of a good touch trade setup

Confluence of TL, daily PPZ and in between 50/61 fibs...

I didnt take it but definitely should have.
  • #410
  • Apr 20, 2010 4:57am Apr 20, 2010 4:57am
Quoting ingmarforex
Yes it is some future price indicator but it can show you areas of confluence. SO dont use the indy for trades. It is more for people who find it a bit harder to spot them right away who need to learn more. And cant spot them right away( Like a bit myself now)

Oke here is a example ho to use it

http://i40.tinypic.com/29b2ebk.jpg
Ahh I didnt have the PPZ on my chart just the future price dots...will have a play with it later.
  • #411
  • Apr 20, 2010 5:00am Apr 20, 2010 5:00am
Out of GU short @ BE.
  • #412
  • Apr 20, 2010 5:22am Apr 20, 2010 5:22am
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #413
  • Apr 20, 2010 5:38am Apr 20, 2010 5:38am
I shorted oil chart explains


target 50%fib

http://i40.tinypic.com/11jyqf7.jpg
  • #414
  • Apr 20, 2010 5:54am Apr 20, 2010 5:54am
Quoting ingmarforex
I shorted oil chart explains


target 50%fib

http://i40.tinypic.com/11jyqf7.jpg
That's a trade I wouldn't have taken. That PPZ isn't really a PPZ and there's a bit more to go to 50 or 61.8% fib. I would look for shorts at around 85 (but I'm not looking ). But I think nasir and LJ can have a say better than mine.

Edit: And as I can tell, you have your fib drawn uspide down. It should be something like in the pic below. Start from the latest swing high and then go to the latest swing low in this case.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-04-20_1358.jpg Size: 120 KB
  • #415
  • Apr 20, 2010 6:04am Apr 20, 2010 6:04am
84.30 looks better...might hold it for a bit...85 would be a better setup - more confluence

Looking for a rejection of 92 on CJ and 1.0086 on UC ... if this lines up when Oil @ resistance then a definite good setup.

Gold, AU, UJ all near pending shorts. Will add to EA long if gets above 1.4530
  • #416
  • Apr 20, 2010 6:07am Apr 20, 2010 6:07am
Quoting nasir.khan
.
I wanted to short this earlier...but missed it on the news spike
  • #417
  • Apr 20, 2010 6:08am Apr 20, 2010 6:08am
...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: uc.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #418
  • Apr 20, 2010 6:10am Apr 20, 2010 6:10am
Quoting lovejoy80
I couldn't think of what to call my journal so I decided to just call it the reason behind why I trade...well not the only reason, but the ultimate reason - to make money, to be financially independant and to be my own boss.

This journal will detail all my trades taken whterh intraday or long term, setups I am considering andsome slef critiscism of trades I take or miss. The latter is the reason behind this journal - somewhere where I can keep a log (pictorialy) of my trades and thoughts so I (and others if they so wish) can look back and review...
With you on this man, good luck.
  • #419
  • Apr 20, 2010 6:12am Apr 20, 2010 6:12am
Stopped out.

This is a Peak and Valley trade.

Fib's + TL + PPZ break.
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #420
  • Apr 20, 2010 6:14am Apr 20, 2010 6:14am
Quoting lovejoy80
...
hope UC reaches 1.0880. I'm short the daily PB. But things don't look that good.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-04-20_1411.jpg Size: 135 KB
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