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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #221,421
  • Apr 19, 2010 7:27am Apr 19, 2010 7:27am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Had another look at the bullish diverg play-out area and it sits at around 140.25. Closed long for +60.

We may move higher from here to perhaps close the gap, but don't want to risk anything before NY starts to trade.
Huge bearish div on H1. Another fall maybe after gap is closed. What's ur take?
Attached Image
  • #221,422
  • Apr 19, 2010 7:47am Apr 19, 2010 7:47am
Quoting dialpips
Huge bearish div on H1. Another fall maybe after gap is closed. What's ur take?

IMHO Tht is a risky sells u had there..Gj looks set to test 142.5 or 143.
  • #221,423
  • Apr 19, 2010 7:51am Apr 19, 2010 7:51am
Quoting dialpips
Huge bearish div on H1. Another fall maybe after gap is closed. What's ur take?
Yep.

Will need to keep the faith though. Seems a determination to close the gap and we're not quite as O/B as I would like, but entered another short position @ 140.86 and will add up to 142. Blue rectangle on the oscillator represents a play out area for me.

chart
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  • #221,424
  • Edited 8:00am Apr 19, 2010 7:58am | Edited 8:00am
not sure
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  • #221,425
  • Apr 19, 2010 8:01am Apr 19, 2010 8:01am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Yep.

Will need to keep the faith though. Seems a determination to close the gap and we're not quite as O/B as I would like, but entered another short position @ 140.86 and will add up to 142. Blue rectangle on the oscillator represents a play out area for me.

chart
Attachment

I'm still holding a long scalp from 139.75 and waiting for target of 141.40... I don't think we'll see a ton more movement today, perhaps some more grinding up to finish what I see as the most recent retracement and consolidation. I'll watch Asia tonight and most likely start building a short position for another leg down. A quick look at the daily in my opinion shows that we're still headed lower before (or if) we go back up for new highs...
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  • #221,426
  • Apr 19, 2010 8:08am Apr 19, 2010 8:08am
Quoting Geppy
I'm still holding a long scalp from 139.75 and waiting for target of 141.40... I don't think we'll see a ton more movement today, perhaps some more grinding up to finish what I see as the most recent retracement and consolidation. I'll watch Asia tonight and most likely start building a short position for another leg down. A quick look at the daily in my opinion shows that we're still headed lower before (or if) we go back up for new highs...
Yea, I dropped a bollock closing my long earlier. Should have trailed a stop, but nevermind.

I'm back onto the bigger picture now as most of the previous bearish divergences I had seen have played out. There is another one for the entire move which sits at 137.x, but that may take a while to play out now. If we finish the day at or near the highs, then further upside tomorrow is almost a certainty IMO.
  • #221,427
  • Apr 19, 2010 8:33am Apr 19, 2010 8:33am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Yea, I dropped a bollock closing my long earlier. Should have trailed a stop, but nevermind.

I'm back onto the bigger picture now as most of the previous bearish divergences I had seen have played out. There is another one for the entire move which sits at 137.x, but that may take a while to play out now. If we finish the day at or near the highs, then further upside tomorrow is almost a certainty IMO.
I agree we could definitely see more upside tomorrow. It depends on how much of this drop we want to retrace. I'll be watching the 4H and daily for short entries at fib zones and resistance.
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  • #221,428
  • Apr 19, 2010 8:39am Apr 19, 2010 8:39am
if this level (141.20) is cleared and price can break upwards, then yes, i think there should be more upside - 143ish. if this level will hold, then no upside. in the meantime, gap was closed.
Quoting Geppy
I agree we could definitely see more upside tomorrow. It depends on how much of this drop we want to retrace. I'll be watching the 4H and daily for short entries at fib zones and resistance.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #221,429
  • Apr 19, 2010 8:40am Apr 19, 2010 8:40am
Hi all,
Now the bearish divergence is play out as pointed by dialpips and uktrader.
If no new low is forming, today we retrace 38.2 already. But i expect a retrace for [email protected] will be the good setup for down again. Possible 143 is the last setup there
  • #221,430
  • Apr 19, 2010 8:52am Apr 19, 2010 8:52am
The price is below monthly, weekly and daily 5 sma. The most price can retrace is back to 142.30. There will be high chance another leg down. Btw the H1 bearish divergence will be a good entry
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #221,431
  • Apr 19, 2010 8:58am Apr 19, 2010 8:58am
Quoting Scrat
if this level (141.20) is cleared and price can break upwards, then yes, i think there should be more upside - 143ish. if this level will hold, then no upside. in the meantime, gap was closed.
Broco didn't quite close the gap. 20 pips or so away. Close enough I guess, but the market can be fussy about these things.
  • #221,432
  • Apr 19, 2010 9:06am Apr 19, 2010 9:06am
what exactly do you mean by closing the gap = back to friday's low or back to friday's close? low is 141.329; close is 141.553.
technically, neither one was closed...
but it's not a must, although most gaps close sooner or later.

Quoting ukdaytrader
Broco didn't quite close the gap. 20 pips or so away. Close enough I guess, but the market can be fussy about these things.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #221,433
  • Apr 19, 2010 9:11am Apr 19, 2010 9:11am
i'm still keeping an eye on this channel... Notice how we were rejected and it's not serving pretty well as resistance? I wouldn't be surprised to see us break higher though and perhaps be rejected by the upper down trend line near 142.50 or so.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #221,434
  • Apr 19, 2010 9:13am Apr 19, 2010 9:13am
Quoting Scrat
what exactly do you mean by closing the gap = back to friday's low or back to friday's close? low is 141.329; close is 141.553.
technically, neither one was closed...
but it's not a must, although most gaps close sooner or later.
I thought you said gap was closed.

Gap close for me is the closing price on Friday being met the following week.
  • #221,435
  • Apr 19, 2010 9:30am Apr 19, 2010 9:30am
i am embarrassed... you are right. sorry, i was way off.
well, 141.55 should be first important resistance anyway, if we get a daily close above it then bye bye bears for now. then, 141.85 is next resistance... and i believe that would be a control point.

Quoting ukdaytrader
I thought you said gap was closed.

Gap close for me is the closing price on Friday being met the following week.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #221,436
  • Apr 19, 2010 9:44am Apr 19, 2010 9:44am
http://www.actionforex.com/technical...0100419111258/
  • #221,437
  • Apr 19, 2010 9:45am Apr 19, 2010 9:45am
Quoting Scrat
i am embarrassed... you are right. sorry, i was way off.
well, 141.55 should be first important resistance anyway, if we get a daily close above it then bye bye bears for now. then, 141.85 is next resistance... and i believe that would be a control point.
Base on Weely chart, the price fail to test [email protected] , there is no bullish sign yet as long still inside the channel TL.
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  • #221,438
  • Apr 19, 2010 9:46am Apr 19, 2010 9:46am
Quoting Scrat
i am embarrassed... you are right. sorry, i was way off.
well, 141.55 should be first important resistance anyway, if we get a daily close above it then bye bye bears for now. then, 141.85 is next resistance... and i believe that would be a control point.
Guys think a bit about what they are doing. Last week we had NO GBP NEWS None Nadda Zilch Zipo! Right now they are Pumping so they can go DUMPING with all the GBP NEWS Starting Tonight I see Nothing else they are bringing it up to SLAM IT DOWN. I will start shorting near 142.22 50% Fib level.
  • #221,439
  • Apr 19, 2010 10:00am Apr 19, 2010 10:00am
Now the EW count valid. Will be Void if break 2...
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  • #221,440
  • Edited 11:50am Apr 19, 2010 10:22am | Edited 11:50am
just a pic - gj1d
gj15m
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1271689129
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