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Silent Service Method

  • #8,121
  • Apr 17, 2010 3:44pm Apr 17, 2010 3:44pm
Replies in red

Well, with all that you're a lot further along in this game than I am, so cheers. I've only come across a few threads where folks were trying to design indicators to generate email/text alerts when pins came up, but most of those experiments fizzled because of the complexity of multiple pairs, pinbar qualities, timeframe, broker daily-close times, and whatnot.

If you made one that functioned, I'm sure a lot of people would be interested in it.

Most people won't be interested because it won't be a hands off system, you will still have to look at the charts and make decisions. It is really going to simply place arrows on the chart to make it easier to identify PIN bars etc.

Me.....I'm just working on myself first because I can't seem to bullshit price into doing what I want, and most of my "problem areas" in trading are more about my psychological profile, and pre-existing-useless beliefs, than methodology or technique.

At least you are honest with yourself. It takes time, but you will work it out. Every good trader goes through the same thing.

And honestly, if I miss a 4H pin, I know another will come along eventually, I used alertfx.com for awhile and my GF just got pissed off when my cell rang at 3:00 in the morning. So I just take it easy and catch what I can.

Yeah, there will always be another signal.

I sleep light, so I wake up when the backlight on my phone goes on. My wife doesn't mind because it doesn't wake her up.

Best of luck
You too, I believe that this thread is going to make a lot of people better traders.
  • #8,122
  • Apr 17, 2010 4:06pm Apr 17, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting jharvey407
[...]The reason I am looking for a PIN and PA indicator right now is for study work. I am currently going back through the historical chart data on bar at a time and watching the PA form. I simply need a simple indicator to help me spot the PA formations. [...] For now I am going to concentrate on honing my TA and PA skills.
So with all due respect to your request for a "simple indicator," I'll go out on a limb here to ask if you've ever heard, studied and/or applied the so-called "DeMark Indicators" in any of your trading experience?

Further, have you heard or used any of the DeMark Indicator EAs available on this site from other traders?

Is there an individual or synthesis of other EAs available that are designed to identify the patterns you're looking for at present? And are you using any that work for you already?

If so, what, if any discoveries, conclusions or observations to any of the above have you made which may benefit your current study?
  • #8,123
  • Apr 17, 2010 11:37pm Apr 17, 2010 11:37pm
[ Hi just a thought and hope this doesn't offend but it sounds like your quite successful at trading and making money, weddings, 5 week vacations.....are you not happy with whats working for you now....i hope its not a Divorce thats making you strive for more!!!quote=jharvey407;3647292]Because with a simple indicator I can spot a PIN bar without having to glance at a chart.

I use simple tools to help me perform more efficiently. Having an indicator that will text me an alert if a pin bar forms at the close of a 4hr bar will remove the burden of me having to stop what I am doing and open a chart at the close of every 4hr bar, especially while I am working or sleeping.

As many have mentioned, one of the goals of this method is to be able to trade without having to stare at the charts.

It is also going to help me while I am reviewing historical data to get more familiar with the PA patterns and trade setups.

And actually you are being negative. Simply because you don't like a technique used by another trader does not negate the usefulness of the technique.

I have hardly ever met a successful trader or fund manager that does not use a variety of indicators and scanners to help them pinpoint trading opportunities.



The point of the indicator that I am writing is not tell me what I am looking at, but to tell me what I should be looking at.



I have been trading forex actively for a total of about 6 years, stocks and options easily twice that long, and one thing that I have learned, is that anytime I can automate part of my analysis process, it works to my advantage.

Notice that I said 'my advantage', I would certainly never presume to tell someone else how they should perform their analysis.

Think about the difference of having to scan 6000 stock charts, or simply having to scan the ones that have been tagged as having a possible setup. Even if your scanner tags 200 possible setups, and you manually validate only 100, you are still ahead of the game.

Using an indicator or scanner to help spot setups does not preclude looking for setups and patterns manually. It only aims to aid in the process.

I paid for my wedding, and my 5 week vacation in Brazil with money I made trading forex, with an automated system. In fact, I made enough money during my vacation to Brazil to pay for another one.

I am trying to minimize the time that I spend doing analysis by automating as much of it as possible.

Once I start compiling the data from my testing I will post it and you will see what I mean.[/quote]
  • #8,124
  • Apr 18, 2010 2:15am Apr 18, 2010 2:15am
Hi low
sorry for late reply , i was traveling .
i am still in. i have shorted at 1.3067 i didn't close it at BE as u did ( u did the right thing since we are in counter trend trade so better be careful) .
we have a strong Support at 13935 if it break it we might see it 1.3827 as u have suggested as target .

samer


Quoting Low
Hey Samer, did you short that AN bfly?

I did, got stopped out at BE (ATR-based trailing stop experiment..oops), and have shorted again after it stalled.

First target 1.28.
  • #8,125
  • Apr 18, 2010 2:25am Apr 18, 2010 2:25am
Quoting jharvey407
Thanks for the PDF's I'll take a look at them this weekend.

As for the fib add on to the alerts, you are getting way ahead of my game..

The reason I am looking for a PIN and PA indicator right now is for study work. I am currently going back through the historical chart data on bar at a time and watching the PA form. I simply need a simple indicator to help me spot the PA formations.

Later I will be adding to the indicator to help me pick high quality trades. Then we can discuss adding in SR, Fibo etc.

For now I am going to concentrate on...


Not sure if you have already discovered this PA indicator, if you have just ignore it. If not, you can choose which PA alerts you want to see to some extent. Either way, it saves a lot if eyeballing the charts.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Pattern_Recognition_Master_v3.ex4   24 KB | 344 downloads
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #8,126
  • Apr 18, 2010 3:48am Apr 18, 2010 3:48am
Quoting jharvey407
Because with a simple indicator I can spot a PIN bar without having to glance at a chart.

I use simple tools to help me perform more efficiently. Having an indicator that will text me an alert if a pin bar forms at the close of a 4hr bar will remove the burden of me having to stop what I am doing and open a chart at the close of every 4hr bar, especially while I am working or sleeping.

As many have mentioned, one of the goals of this method is to be able to trade without having to stare at the charts.

It is also going to help me while...
Fair enough.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,127
  • Apr 18, 2010 5:25am Apr 18, 2010 5:25am
Replies in red

So with all due respect to your request for a "simple indicator," I'll go out on a limb here to ask if you've ever heard, studied and/or applied the so-called "DeMark Indicators" in any of your trading experience?

Further, have you heard or used any of the DeMark Indicator EAs available on this site from other traders?

Sorry, I have not heard of, nor used the DeMark indicators or EA's, but I will add them to my list of indicators to look at.

Is there an individual or synthesis of other EAs available that are designed to identify the patterns you're looking for at present? And are you using any that work for you already?

I'm not sure if there are any available. That is why I am working on developing my own, and asking other traders if they know of any.

I'm not using anything right now, but I am developing a few.

As I noted before, I am not looking to automate this trading method, but to simply improve my results by making sure I take advantage of all good trading opportunities.

If so, what, if any discoveries, conclusions or observations to any of the above have you made which may benefit your current study?

So far during my preliminary analysis I have noted that the PIN bar is a high probability setup when used with S/R and round numbers. It is useful as a reversal indicator, and a continuation indicator.

This is preliminary of course, but it led me to believe that I (with the help of CW and the other thread contributors) am on the right track.

Thanks for the help.
  • #8,128
  • Apr 18, 2010 5:44am Apr 18, 2010 5:44am
Quoting jharvey407
Replies in red [...] Thanks for the help.
So glad to help! To me, it's inevitable that every system dies or is docked to be automated - no matter how simple it is. Isn't it a worthy problem and goal? :nerd:
  • #8,129
  • Apr 18, 2010 6:20am Apr 18, 2010 6:20am
Quoting 1 Day ...
Hi just a thought and hope this doesn't offend but it sounds like your quite successful at trading and making money, weddings, 5 week vacations.....are you not happy with whats working for you now....i hope its not a Divorce thats making you strive for more!!!
Don't worry, it's not a divorce. I am happily married. She is beautiful, smart and supportive.

As far as my trading success goes, unfortunately, like so many other traders, my periods of success were outweighed by my periods of failure. I spent about 6 years chasing the holy grail.

I spent countless hours reading books, such as, 'Master Swing Trader', 'Rule #1', 'Inside the House of Money', etc. etc. I studied the masters like DiNapoli, Soros, Schwartz and Bollinger. I worked with some of the 'best' mentors in the business, including Rob Booker, Kolachi, and the infamous BunnyGirl.

I spent even more time writing and testing EA's based on MA crosses, RSI confirmation, mean reversion, and on and on. Every once in a while I would come up with one that worked. I would study it and optimize it. Then I would dump a bunch of money into my account and swing for the fence. Occasionally I would hit the ball out of the park.

I spent years getting up at 2 am to scalp the 5M before going to my a day job. I also spent about a year living on my savings, getting up at 2 am and sitting at the computer for 16 hours a day.

As I continued to learn how to trade I slowly worked my way to the higher time frames, longer trades, less indicators. My trading started to turn around, once I realized that my most profitable trading was longer term, trend based trades. That is when I got involved with James16 and Jacko.

I decided to reevaluate my trading style and concentrate on longer term trend trading. I began to study price action and look at longer term trades. I was chatting with an old trading accomplice, Gail (gtrader444), and she told me about this thread. Once I started reading I realized it was exactly what I was looking for. A simple, well directed method of trading the longer term trends.

I am in the process of learning how the signals form and what constitutes a high quality entry signal. I am going to learn the method and make it work for me and my style of trading.

I'll be sure and post any notes and findings along the way.

James
  • #8,130
  • Apr 18, 2010 6:27am Apr 18, 2010 6:27am
Quoting Soca
So glad to help! To me, it's inevitable that every system dies or is docked to be automated - no matter how simple it is. Isn't it a worthy problem and goal? :nerd:
Just so I understand, are you asking if it is a worthy goal to automate this method that we are learning?

If so, my answer is yes. The question is 'can it be automated?' Anytime a trading method contains a discretionary component it complicates the process of automation.

So, we'll see where the testing takes us.

Only after the method is fully understood and quantified can it be automated.

For now my goal is understanding, not automation.

James
  • #8,131
  • Apr 18, 2010 10:35am Apr 18, 2010 10:35am
This is by no means a scientific study, but I did click through the EUR chart starting Jan 1, 2007 and looked at the PA setups on the daily chart.

Take a look if you like.

I plan on doing this for more pairs to hone my skills and to get a feeling for which pairs produce the highest quality signals.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf A Quick Look at CW Signals.pdf   1.1 MB | 581 downloads
  • #8,132
  • Apr 18, 2010 1:48pm Apr 18, 2010 1:48pm
Quoting jharvey407
Don't worry, it's not a divorce. I am happily married. She is beautiful, smart and supportive.

As far as my trading success goes, unfortunately, like so many other traders, my periods of success were outweighed by my periods of failure. I spent about 6 years chasing the holy grail.

I spent countless hours reading books, such as, 'Master Swing Trader', 'Rule #1', 'Inside the House of Money', etc. etc. I studied the masters like DiNapoli, Soros, Schwartz and Bollinger. I worked with some of the 'best' mentors in the business, including Rob Booker,...
Good to know the person behind the posts. I'm just glad I found this thread way before 6 years into my trading career! I hope you get the indicators set up as you want them. Like you say they would be useful for your style of trading and suit your time requirements too.

I'm looking forward to sharing ideas with you in the future, you are obviously a good trader. You'll know by now that I can be quite direct in my outlook and answers. Please don't let that put you off me, I hope I've shown you that I know what I'm talking about the best way, money where the mouth is, with some good trades this month. Just as low my problem in the past has been discipline and consistency. I think having my trading in public view (link below) will definitely keep me on the straight and narrow.

Another week coming up, let's bag some nice trades.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,133
  • Apr 18, 2010 3:27pm Apr 18, 2010 3:27pm
Quoting jharvey407
This is by no means a scientific study, but I did click through the EUR chart starting Jan 1, 2007 and looked at the PA setups on the daily chart. Take a look if you like. I plan on doing this for more pairs to hone my skills and to get a feeling for which pairs produce the highest quality signals.
Cool. So as a suggestion, going back over your compendium of charts, how would grade each pinbar setup?

Say Grade A, B or C?

And why.
  • #8,134
  • Apr 18, 2010 4:02pm Apr 18, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting Soca
Cool. So as a suggestion, going back over your compendium of charts, how would grade each pinbar setup?

Say Grade A, B or C?

And why.
I don't have the experience for that yet. But it is the objective of this exercise. I plan on continuing to review the historical data one bar at a time unit I truly understand what constitutes an A+ set-up.
  • #8,135
  • Edited 6:12pm Apr 18, 2010 5:25pm | Edited 6:12pm
Turning on my charts to kickoff the Asian session this week, what first grabbed my attention is a "Grade A" pinbar on xAU/uSD (Gold) according to my Oanda 3H chart. (Attached the Daily with a yellow arrow for perspective.)

I realize it's technically "in traffic" but closed above the previous rhythm low as you can see on the attachment. There's also sufficient space between it and the uptrend off left all-the-while indicating a Long that's with the prevailing trend itself.

It's length, telling, again compared to the activity to its left. It's got the "where, what and when" going for it... Now I'd be especially interested to see where the Daily bar closes today, which would give it even more clout, above 1145 i.e..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xAU:uSD 3H.jpg Size: 87 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: xAU:uSD Daily.jpg Size: 97 KB
  • #8,136
  • Apr 18, 2010 10:12pm Apr 18, 2010 10:12pm
Soca,

I saw your post and check my oanda gold too. I'm half tempted to sell it.
Dropped $30 dollars to $1106 in the first M5 bar. Was bought up to $1145 and pushed back down.

Why in the hell would anybody sell that much gold when there's almost no liquidity, i.e., even the biggest banks will pay a premium spread trading when there's nobody else to play.

Something tells me they know something we don't (yet).

Clearly, I have a pretty contrarian view here, but I have a hard time believing it was just a bear trap.

(I'm flat on gold ATM, but deliberating)
  • #8,137
  • Apr 18, 2010 10:52pm Apr 18, 2010 10:52pm
Euraud, audusd and audnzd breaking their trendlines perhaps? Audusd may be the most tradeable with the lowest spread too. I'll keep an eye on it.

Is 90 the most obvious level for a bounce on usdjpy?

Chfjpy at break even now with the trade currently up 70 pips.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 19 04 10.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd tl break.gif Size: 35 KB
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,138
  • Apr 18, 2010 10:54pm Apr 18, 2010 10:54pm
Quoting Low
Soca,

I saw your post and check my oanda gold too. I'm half tempted to sell it.
Dropped $30 dollars to $1106 in the first M5 bar. Was bought up to $1145 and pushed back down.

Why in the hell would anybody sell that much gold when there's almost no liquidity, i.e., even the biggest banks will pay a premium spread trading when there's nobody else to play.

Something tells me they know something we don't (yet).

Clearly, I have a pretty contrarian view here, but I have a hard time believing it was just a bear trap.

(I'm flat on gold ATM, but...
All this would tie in with the big drop in the aud.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,139
  • Apr 19, 2010 4:12am Apr 19, 2010 4:12am
Quoting Rastaman
Not sure if you have already discovered this PA indicator, if you have just ignore it. If not, you can choose which PA alerts you want to see to some extent. Either way, it saves a lot if eyeballing the charts.
Thanks, this is a perfect place to start. I will simply modify it to fit my needs.

Thanks
James
  • #8,140
  • Apr 19, 2010 4:34am Apr 19, 2010 4:34am
Quoting Low
Soca,

I saw your post and check my oanda gold too. I'm half tempted to sell it.
Dropped $30 dollars to $1106 in the first M5 bar. Was bought up to $1145 and pushed back down.

Why in the hell would anybody sell that much gold when there's almost no liquidity, i.e., even the biggest banks will pay a premium spread trading when there's nobody else to play.

Something tells me they know something we don't (yet).

Clearly, I have a pretty contrarian view here, but I have a hard time believing it was just a bear trap.

(I'm flat on gold ATM, but deliberating)...
Here's my take. (And yes - spot and futures are fairly interchangeable.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: june_gold.png Size: 37 KB
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