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Silent Service Method

  • #8,101
  • Apr 16, 2010 12:00pm Apr 16, 2010 12:00pm
Nice trades all! ^^^

Here's the chfjpy I mentioned earlier... Pretty textbook so far and 40 pips up. I might move to break even before the market closes tonight and see how far it goes on Monday. On the daily 85.50 seems minor s/r but we could see 84.

Have a good weekend.
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Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,102
  • Apr 16, 2010 1:50pm Apr 16, 2010 1:50pm
Hey Samer, did you short that AN bfly?

I did, got stopped out at BE (ATR-based trailing stop experiment..oops), and have shorted again after it stalled.

First target 1.28.
  • #8,103
  • Apr 16, 2010 1:52pm Apr 16, 2010 1:52pm
Goldman Sachs spokesperson says:

" Sue us for fraud and we'll sell this thing into oblivion"
  • #8,104
  • Apr 16, 2010 3:41pm Apr 16, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting Low
Goldman Sachs spokesperson says:

" Sue us for fraud and we'll sell this thing into oblivion"
I am stunned. Fraud. Millions of dollars. Wall Street. Unheard of.
  • #8,105
  • Apr 16, 2010 4:30pm Apr 16, 2010 4:30pm
heidelberg cement on daily.

i am not sure about this PB.

pro: divergence, big spread,
contra: runs into traffic and support (44 euro).

maybe one should wait for a break of 44 euro. below short.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #8,106
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:57pm Apr 16, 2010 8:57pm
Quoting aserbfx
heidelberg cement on daily.

i am not sure about this PB.

pro: divergence, big spread,
contra: runs into traffic and support (44 euro).

maybe one should wait for a break of 44 euro. below short.

I agree.....however, it looks a bit messy for my liking. I would place this as a pullback, not necessarily looking for a major move down though.
  • #8,107
  • Apr 16, 2010 11:09pm Apr 16, 2010 11:09pm
Put a trendline on that move up and 44 looks like a candidate for a long?

(I just had a laugh at an ad on the sidebar... Execution matters... Yeah right, a tick here or there will kill me)
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,108
  • Apr 17, 2010 12:39am Apr 17, 2010 12:39am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Put a trendline on that move up and 44 looks like a candidate for a long?

(I just had a laugh at an ad on the sidebar... Execution matters... Yeah right, a tick here or there will kill me)
Like I said...a little sloppy for my taste. I would look for others to be honest.
  • #8,109
  • Apr 17, 2010 9:16am Apr 17, 2010 9:16am
I have been spending a bit of time practicing my analysis with historical charts. I am looking at placing levels of S/R and watching the price patterns form to create signals.

Because I beleive in the strength of having a 'mechanical advantage' I am going to be writing some indicators to label PIN, BEOB, BUOB, Double PIN, etc.

Before I go through the trouble of writing these indicators I just thought I would ask if anyone has a good indidcator for labeling any of the PA that we look for?

Thanks
James
  • #8,110
  • Apr 17, 2010 9:58am Apr 17, 2010 9:58am
I think I found Tom's dad.

Inserted Video
  • #8,111
  • Apr 17, 2010 10:00am Apr 17, 2010 10:00am
Quoting jharvey407
I have been spending a bit of time practicing my analysis with historical charts. I am looking at placing levels of S/R and watching the price patterns form to create signals.

Because I beleive in the strength of having a 'mechanical advantage' I am going to be writing some indicators to label PIN, BEOB, BUOB, Double PIN, etc.

Before I go through the trouble of writing these indicators I just thought I would ask if anyone has a good indidcator for labeling any of the PA that we look for?

Thanks
James
James, I have seen a couple variations of those indicators on the net, but to be honest - they all tend to focus on pinbars mainly. I haven't seen anything that would excite me to be honest.

I would suggest you think about the design side of it as well. One of the things that they all had in common is that they tended to be a little hard to read. Also, they gave some false signals as well.
  • #8,112
  • Apr 17, 2010 10:17am Apr 17, 2010 10:17am
Quoting clockwork71
James, I have seen a couple variations of those indicators on the net, but to be honest - they all tend to focus on pinbars mainly. I haven't seen anything that would excite me to be honest.

I would suggest you think about the design side of it as well. One of the things that they all had in common is that they tended to be a little hard to read. Also, they gave some false signals as well.
I think that I have seen the ones you are talking about, I've tried a few, and none were really to my liking.

I plan on writing just a few simple scripts to label PIN's etc. I am not looking for a signal generator, but a simple tool to aid in analysis. The first one that I write will be for pin bars. A simple indicator that plots an arrow on the chart above a pin bar. The idea is not to remove the human element from analysis, but to limit the mistakes caused by overlooking the PA patterns, especially when scanning multiple charts looking for set ups.

I guess the first step in the design of the indicator is to clearly define a PIN bar in terms of shadow length versus body length, etc.

Any ideas would be apprectiated.

Thanks
James
  • #8,113
  • Apr 17, 2010 10:22am Apr 17, 2010 10:22am
Quoting jharvey407
I think that I have seen the ones you are talking about, I've tried a few, and none were really to my liking.

I plan on writing just a few simple scripts to label PIN's etc. I am not looking for a signal generator, but a simple tool to aid in analysis. The first one that I write will be for pin bars. A simple indicator that plots an arrow on the chart above a pin bar. The idea is not to remove the human element from analysis, but to limit the mistakes caused by overlooking the PA patterns, especially when scanning multiple charts looking for set...
Don't think I'm being negative but why bother? Surely you can spot a pin bar or any other candle shape with just one glance at the chart?

I've drawn the s/r from the weekly chart, trendlines on the weekly/daily and refined on the daily and 4h and a lot of the time just check the charts once at the end of the day when the daily candle closes (unless anything is setting up on the 4h charts) and then trade accordingly. How would an indicator telling me what I am looking at improve my trading?

I've got two really simple tools to aid in analysis and they're both stuck on the front of my head.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,114
  • Apr 17, 2010 11:32am Apr 17, 2010 11:32am
I agree with arferdaily, I use candlestick formation searches with stocks, but there's like 6000 stocks.....and most of what my scans bring up are garbage.

The longer you trade the easier it gets to spot things like that. Just like any other job, something you have to think about at first, eventually becomes automatic with experience.
  • #8,115
  • Apr 17, 2010 12:29pm Apr 17, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Don't think I'm being negative but why bother? Surely you can spot a pin bar or any other candle shape with just one glance at the chart?
Because with a simple indicator I can spot a PIN bar without having to glance at a chart.

I use simple tools to help me perform more efficiently. Having an indicator that will text me an alert if a pin bar forms at the close of a 4hr bar will remove the burden of me having to stop what I am doing and open a chart at the close of every 4hr bar, especially while I am working or sleeping.

As many have mentioned, one of the goals of this method is to be able to trade without having to stare at the charts.

It is also going to help me while I am reviewing historical data to get more familiar with the PA patterns and trade setups.

And actually you are being negative. Simply because you don't like a technique used by another trader does not negate the usefulness of the technique.

I have hardly ever met a successful trader or fund manager that does not use a variety of indicators and scanners to help them pinpoint trading opportunities.

Quoting Arfer Daily
How would an indicator telling me what I am looking at improve my trading?
The point of the indicator that I am writing is not tell me what I am looking at, but to tell me what I should be looking at.

Quoting Low
I agree with arferdaily, I use candlestick formation searches with stocks, but there's like 6000 stocks.....and most of what my scans bring up are garbage.

The longer you trade the easier it gets to spot things like that. Just like any other job, something you have to think about at first, eventually becomes automatic with experience.
I have been trading forex actively for a total of about 6 years, stocks and options easily twice that long, and one thing that I have learned, is that anytime I can automate part of my analysis process, it works to my advantage.

Notice that I said 'my advantage', I would certainly never presume to tell someone else how they should perform their analysis.

Think about the difference of having to scan 6000 stock charts, or simply having to scan the ones that have been tagged as having a possible setup. Even if your scanner tags 200 possible setups, and you manually validate only 100, you are still ahead of the game.

Using an indicator or scanner to help spot setups does not preclude looking for setups and patterns manually. It only aims to aid in the process.

I paid for my wedding, and my 5 week vacation in Brazil with money I made trading forex, with an automated system. In fact, I made enough money during my vacation to Brazil to pay for another one.

I am trying to minimize the time that I spend doing analysis by automating as much of it as possible.

Once I start compiling the data from my testing I will post it and you will see what I mean.
  • #8,116
  • Edited 2:07pm Apr 17, 2010 12:30pm | Edited 2:07pm
Quoting jharvey407
... Any ideas would be apprectiated. Thanks
Brainstorming... To me the first objective would be to put myself "where" I need to be b/f looking for the "what" (pinbar) or "when" (convergence/divergence).

In other words, we know that pinbars occur nearabout "areas/zones" on the charts more oft than not; so what instead of looking for a pinbar itself, you setup the indicator's parameters to search for the price action that's already within a specified proximity to those areas? Say near a significant Fib, Pivot or S/R plot in order to identify probable conditions.* All-the-while using longer TFs to filter the data into higher percentage probabilities to discover that Grade A pinbar...

Again to reframe and convey my thinking on this topic, esprit of a Storm Chaser in that it's "where" you are in geological terms, which places you in the most favorable conditions for the weather phenomena of study to occur. Not the "what," being a pinbar instead a tornado or hurricane in this case...

To me it's truly a reverse not forward engineering project in that regard and w/o a degree in financial calculus, I can't really help you further. Of course, there's "Ronald Raygun" here on F.F., an EA wiz kid whom you may want to contact for more depth and breadth of what's available to what could be done.

* According to this line of thinking you'll require an adjunct tool with the scanner that automatically plots the fibs/pivots/S&R.
  • #8,117
  • Apr 17, 2010 12:52pm Apr 17, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting Soca
In other words, we know that pin bars occur near about "areas/zones" on the charts more oft than not; so what instead of looking for a pin bar itself, you setup the indicator's parameters to search for the price action that's already within a specified proximity to those areas? Say near a significant Fib, Pivot or S/R plot in order to identify probable conditions.* All-the-while using longer TFs to filter the data into higher percentage probabilities to discover that Grade A pinbar...
That my friend will be phase two.

I am currently using simple price alerts to let me know when price has moved into one of the PPZ I have identified on my chart.

Now I am approaching the problem from a different angle to alert me when a PIN forms, and later I will add other PA patterns to the indicator.

I have a reasonable amount of experience writing indicators in MQL, I simply didn't want to go through the process if a viable indicator had already been written.
  • #8,118
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:24pm Apr 17, 2010 1:24pm
Quoting jharvey407
... I am currently using simple price alerts to let me know when price has moved into one of the PPZ I have identified on my chart. Now I am approaching the problem from a different angle to alert me when a PIN forms, and later I will add other PA patterns to the indicator. ...
I see. Well, I like what you got going so far and recalled a couple booklets about pinbars (advanced) which may be food for thought to further your indicator's R & D. They should be general enough to benefit the thread as well.

Also, inferring from a Fibo example in the "Advanced Pinbar" booklet, what if you broke down a pinbar into a specific range or percentage retracement to/from a predefined PPZ as an experimental add-on to your current alert system?
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Pinbars.pdf   175 KB | 407 downloads
File Type: pdf Pinbars advanced.pdf   113 KB | 320 downloads
  • #8,119
  • Apr 17, 2010 1:53pm Apr 17, 2010 1:53pm
Quoting Soca
I see. Well, I like what you got going so far and recalled a couple booklets about pinbars (advanced) which may be food for thought to further your indicator's R & D. They should be general enough to benefit the thread as well.

Also, inferring from a Fibo example in the "Advanced Pinbar" booklet, what if you broke down a pinbar into a specific range or percentage retracement to/from a predefined PPZ as an experimental add-on to your current alert system?
Thanks for the PDF's I'll take a look at them this weekend.

As for the fib add on to the alerts, you are getting way ahead of my game..

The reason I am looking for a PIN and PA indicator right now is for study work. I am currently going back through the historical chart data on bar at a time and watching the PA form. I simply need a simple indicator to help me spot the PA formations.

Later I will be adding to the indicator to help me pick high quality trades. Then we can discuss adding in SR, Fibo etc.

For now I am going to concentrate on honing my TA and PA skills.
  • #8,120
  • Apr 17, 2010 5:15pm Apr 17, 2010 5:15pm
Quoting jharvey407
I have been trading forex actively for a total of about 6 years, stocks and options easily twice that long, and one thing that I have learned, is that anytime I can automate part of my analysis process, it works to my advantage.

Notice that I said 'my advantage', I would certainly never presume to tell someone else how they should perform their analysis.

---------------------------------------------------------------
I paid for my wedding, and my 5 week vacation in Brazil with money I made trading forex, with an automated system. In fact,...

Well, with all that you're a lot further along in this game than I am, so cheers. I've only come across a few threads where folks were trying to design indicators to generate email/text alerts when pins came up, but most of those experiments fizzled because of the complexity of multiple pairs, pinbar qualities, timeframe, broker daily-close times, and whatnot.

If you made one that functioned, I'm sure a lot of people would be interested in it.

Me.....I'm just working on myself first because I can't seem to bullshit price into doing what I want, and most of my "problem areas" in trading are more about my psychological profile, and pre-existing-useless beliefs, than methodology or technique.

And honestly, if I miss a 4H pin, I know another will come along eventually, I used alertfx.com for awhile and my GF just got pissed off when my cell rang at 3:00 in the morning. So I just take it easy and catch what I can.

Best of luck
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