USDCAD trend reversal?

sold this crap a bit

...a close above 1.0105.

I took 2 longs last night before going to bed, and woke with some very nice green ....which I applied to the red trades I still have open . Money management, people. Money management.

Hi Thadakman its the old classic "Reminiscences of a stock operator"
There are some examples in it how reading of price was done then.
No different today, identifying strength of order flow as it comes into market can still be viewed visualy. Still works jsut as well.
Think of it as tracking quarry in the woods. there are little signs that the eye picks up on, and after enough time is spent watching price you should start to recognize price patterns as it starts to take on directionality.

I am using it right now, by viewing multiple time frames hourly, 2 hour, 4hour, 8hour, daily. The internal direction of price will be discernable. It is not all mystics.

For instance the Euro/Usd is breaking down across the board on all time frames. It is there to be seen. The Goldman thing today is only an event, but the bigger picture shows there is more to this. I am playing this move for more to come, I think that is where the probability is.

Usd/Cad was vulnerable because everyone and their uncle and aunt were long the Cad. But this may be the begining of a decent move.
We had the breakout, now should come a retrace as the news will attribute it to the Goldman thing. Everyone will say just a short term occurence. But if the selling does not reapear in USD/CAD then we will be putting in the bottom at these levels. Cad longs should be a bit reluctant to jump in again, they got fingers burned today.

I took a short on the NZD/USD since it was overlooked by the traders focussing on other pairs. Selling out of Asia in the Yen pairs has been happening for the past two days. All the attempts to prevent it and support those markets have failed. This implies Asia is going risk averse.
Something is brewing of a larger nature. i'm sticking my head on the chopping block, but that is my interpretation.

Have a good weekend.

ps. hi Duce you too have a nice weekend.

Hey Duce, what is all that stuff on your chart
Please to explain.
Thanks

Ah yes, the great Jesse Livermore.. I've read excerpts from the book; good stuff...

CAD broke parity and there was a lot of people still saying it'll keep running (which it might)... but that's exactly why I'm long USD/CAD and have been adding to my position... u just know USD/CAD and USD pretty much paired against the other commodity and euro currencies will get a real nice run once this market starts to really unwind... still patiently waiting; today was a good start though.

Good luck in your trades and have a great weekend.

I only posted a small section of one of my UC charts. I use candles and Fibo lines regularly. Fibos tie in nicely with the emotional aspect of trading. The red lines you see are fibos from a long term daily chart. I also have a monthly chart with fibo lines drawn. When I trade intra-day, i don't save my fibo lines as they are only good for a few days and sometimes just a few hours. My pink lines are "Gator lines". Whenever we chat or whenever he posts re: UC, I keep some of his numbers in mind. Not all, but some. I have way more "Gator-lines" in my EU charts and it is unbelievable at how acurate he is sometimes. I just wish he would be more active in here.

All the other stuff you see around the candles are bollinger bands and Parabolic SAR points. That's pretty much it.

I post 90% of my indicators on my demo account only. My live account has naked charts (why give your broker more ammo?). And I NEVER use SL or TP. I know what my numbers are. I execute manually, but I do not recommend this when you are scalping. Price moves way too quickly.

Have a great weekend folks.

Thanks Duce. Always learning something new.

This post is for those who think the only way to become sucessful is to be taught by someone else at huge cost. If only someone would show me the way, I would find out the secret to trading and make my fortune. Does that sound familiar?

Well if you haven't got much money to buy someone elses method, you may find that that is a blessing and not a problem. I write these words because what that means is, you need to find your own way. You will experience all the frustrations and setbacks that accompany the path.

You will lose your startup cache, you will lose it again and again, but each time it will be lost slower. At some point you will stop losing and at that point all those hard learned lessons will start to pay off. At that point you are at the beginning of having a profitable method.

When the "how do I aproach this" and "what to do about it" questions becomes answerable you are on your way.

Great master traders left behind their wisdoms. Read those books, discern the core of those teachings and always watch the market.
Watch what price does with events. Watch what price does long after events occur. Learn how the different markets trade, Learn what makes them tick. Stay up all night into the wee hours when nothing is going on. Watch throughout the day during high activity times.
Become part of the flow.

Most importantly never give up. It is really up to you, no one will do it for you. Be honest with yourself.

Foto, I will add one thing to your last post.

When I first got into Forex, Steven Nison was one of the first people I followed. And although he is an expert at Japanese Candles, there were two things that he said early on that have stuck with me since:

1. Pick a pair (in his case the EUR USD) and learn it backwards and forwards. Upside down and rightside up. Live it, breath it, study it. He did not stress enough that one should learn a pair exhaustively before attempting to trade many pairs. You need to be an expert in one pair first. And although I am by no means an expert in anything (still working on my 10,000 hours ) the UC is my go to pair. Some hate it 'cause it does not have the volitility of EU or the other majors, but this is good for a newbie. And,

2. Money Management. MM. I repeat. Money Management. And for those of you in the back that may not be able to hear me....Money Management ! I have not lost an account yet (live or demo) and I am plus on all my accounts. I am less in the green in my institutional account, simply because I am very cautious and make fewer trades. And my two smaller live accounts are giving me a modest return too. My Demo account is up 38% and that is not realistic because I took some risky trades this year that I would NEVER have taken live and never did. Sure, the demo made great fake-money, but once you factor in the emotion of using real money, your thinking changes. This way, I've removed all emotion and greed from any trade. It's just money.

So, I trade in my demo account the same way I would trade in my live account. The only difference is that I trade pairs in my demo that I do not trade live. I do this simply to test my theories. I want to keep my money and make it grow, but I also know that I can't win on every trade. Suck it up and move on. The will never be a shortage of trades. But there are definitely limited good trades. Wait for them. What's the rush.

Yo DUCE: as per FOTO, "always learning something new"! Thank you for the sage advise.

Newbies (as this old codger has learned) would do well to read & reread prior posts in this thread.

I'm curious to see what the BOC will do on Tuesday. Some banks have quiety raised the 5 year mortgage rate (twice in less than a month) and it now sits at 6.1%. Shorter term rates are still the same. The government and media are telling us we're doing fine. Better than expected. Better than any other G7 or G20 country. And although I don't buy a lot of this BS, there are many inventors who do. This is why I'm cautious when longing the UC.

CAD futures: MacD X< sig. STO:X'd < sig & comms are flat (on their short positions). I shall look for retrace(US/CAD). Mayhap; scalp long (only 10-20 pip trades).

Duce, I just got back from first steps re: purchase of my retirement property tonight. My numbers may now require a change as a result of this news.
My first thought- "What did they do with the messenger, who brought bad news?"

The "Messenger" was swept under the carpet.

I read somewhere that the average increase worked out to about an extra $1500 more interest per year. Image if prime goes up a 1/2 point or at least 1 point over the course of the next 6 months. Those who are neck deep in debt will have a little trouble with payments. But if you have a 'safe' job and a small-to-zero mortgage...then you have nothing to worry about.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1538699/

As the day plays out, and of course tommorows data from Cad what should be of interest is what the market does with the info.
If the market takes money off the table (sells off or stagnant equities) in the face of continued bullish numbers then we know behind the scenes something bigger then a squall is building.

Asia keeps heading for shelter. US money managers seem to think they know better then the home team. Generaly a bad idea. Inside info is standard operating procedure in Asia. It is worth paying attention to the people that own the currency, and what they do.

A close below the 1.3500 level and posiibly below 134.50 on the Euro would keep pointing towards risk aversion or even possibly a stronger economy in the US (reverse scenario) if equities rally by days end.

Would also expect continued intervention in equities by soverigns to support the illusion of prosperity to come. This ongoing event distorts the market and really only makes for more uncertainty. These interventions do however produce outside the box volatility moves that will benifit those having patience. Wait for the market to come to you. get those low risk
entries thanking the soverigns for supplying them.

I mention this as I screwed up this morning having missed a beaut of an entry in the Euro/Gbp at the .8830 level. Just too early on a monday morning to have engaged the mind. Oh well!

I hate missing trades too, Foto, but it happens.

I took a UC short today the second time it hit 1.0199. And I'm still holding. We're back to the daily pivot. Hopefully tomorrow the BoC will give us some better direction.

+42 pips is better than a kick in the head. Hopefully tomorrow we'll have some volatility.

Morning Duce et all,
Numbers out of Europe were very good. Especialy Germany. Closed all the shorts of Euro/Usd.
There is quite the fracture between the North European economies and Southern.
Do not really know what to make of all of this. Hope as Duce suggests will get some clarity out of BOC
The Euro/Usd has been flat for all goods and purpose since February. No place to be for trend followers. But it is what it is.

May just trade, reversion to mean trades and wait until something shows up that indicates something directional is actually going on.

Maybe I closed my short a little premature last night, but I don't like trading based on the flip of a coin. I will admit that the pressure was to go down to parity, but again, I don't have a crystal ball.

Anyone who has been following mortgage news up here will know that you now need a 20% downpayment on your second property, and EVERYONE has to qualify for a 5 year mortgage rate, even if you only need a 1 - 3 year term mortgage. Basically, the banks want to know what the "borrowers worst case scenario" is first. This way, if they know you can afford to pay the 5 year rate, you will definitely be okay to pay the short term rate, which usually comes at a rate discount.

So, there will be a lot of people who no longer qualify, and all those people out there who need to renew their HUGE mortgages, will quickly find that they no longer qualify. You will slowly start to see defaults up here. But make no mistake. I don't think this is a bad thing. I think this is a great thing. Those once buyers of homes will become renters. And people with real money will buy discounted properties (once they go power of sale) and rent them back. The circle of life.