Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 722 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,421
  • Apr 16, 2010 6:22am Apr 16, 2010 6:22am
Quoting pete.alfa
What was that within 5 sec I dead!!!! No News. I forgot COILING. Learning to trade UJ.

Cheers,
"usj spikes 40 pips after comments from Japan ruling party lawmaker on FX intervention to weaken JPY"

but seems it's just lip service, if they throw in money, should be more than 40 pips.
  • #14,422
  • Apr 16, 2010 6:35am Apr 16, 2010 6:35am
Market's covering it back, hope you managed to stay on it Pete.
"lip service" sounds nasty, I love it
  • #14,423
  • Apr 16, 2010 6:36am Apr 16, 2010 6:36am
Quoting MyTbo
Hi, fti.

My profit range is not 50pips, it is the range in which I think rescue is appropriate. .... I can withstand a 30pips move against me.....But how can I know that 50pips move against me from the top of my perceived retracement is not actually a reversal.
60pips equals 2% of my capital with minimum position size that's why I use the 50pips range.
.......
@auxesis
How can I be sure that a S/R will hold? What kind of action should I see before I'm sure it...
MyTbo, fti commented many times that using pips to mesure rescue level is rigid thinking and it might bring ruin coz when marke goes against you for 50 pips, it can keep going against you for many other 50 pips. Instead pips, we should watch how the move unfolding to decide rescue level or flip.

About S/R, as fti and auxesis mentioned before, it's not static. We have to see the S/R formed on real time to decide a price level is holding or cracking. We can't forsee a level is going to be a S/R or not.
  • #14,424
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:04am Apr 16, 2010 8:04am
Quoting imjscn
MyTbo, fti commented many times that using pips to mesure rescue level is rigid thinking and it might bring ruin coz when marke goes against you for 50 pips, it can keep going against you for many other 50 pips. Instead pips, we should watch how the move unfolding to decide rescue level or flip.

About S/R, as fti and auxesis mentioned before, it's not static. We have to see the S/R formed on real time to decide a price level is holding or cracking. We can't forsee a level is going to be a S/R or not.
I don't wait PA to go against me 50pips to enter a rescue. I don't know what made you think I do it. I look for rescue opportunities within this range. I'll post a chart and try to make my point clear.

Below is a chart of what I did today. I've drawn the S/R areas just for the discussion here. So you can see my 1st entry gets into trouble, on the way up I look for rescue opportunities, I don't wait 50pips. Where I bailed out was another rescue opportunity, but I didn't risk since it looked like upside momentum is building and value per pip would have increased more than wanted.

On the right you can see my attack attempt. I took some of the profits in case it goes back and left the other to ride if possible. The stop loss is there because I had go for lunch( I was starving actually). I didn't want to come back and see my winner having turned into a loser.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled1.jpg Size: 141 KB
  • #14,425
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:09am Apr 16, 2010 8:09am
Auxesis, it took all week but the gap on the E/$ is now closed. Let's see what happens next.
  • #14,426
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:11am Apr 16, 2010 8:11am
Quoting GEfx
Auxesis, it took all week but the gap on the E/$ is now closed. Let's see what happens next.
Lol, yep we now where we ended last week.
  • #14,427
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:21am Apr 16, 2010 8:21am
a question?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled1.jpg Size: 101 KB
  • #14,428
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:36am Apr 16, 2010 8:36am
Quoting MyTbo
I don't wait PA to go against me 50pips to enter a rescue. I don't know what made you think I do it. I look for rescue opportunities within this range. I'll post a chart and try to make my point clear.
MyTbo, there should not be a range for rescue opportunity-- what if the rescue opportunity comes at 70 pips level? Instead, there's a range for the decission of cutting according to your capital.
  • #14,429
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:38am Apr 16, 2010 8:38am
Quoting MyTbo
I don't wait PA to go against me 50pips to enter a rescue. I don't know what made you think I do it. I look for rescue opportunities within this range. I'll post a chart and try to make my point clear.

Below is a chart of what I did today. I've drawn the S/R areas just for the discussion here. So you can see my 1st entry gets into trouble, on the way up I look for rescue opportunities, I don't wait 50pips. Where I bailed out was another rescue opportunity, but I didn't risk since it looked like upside momentum is building and value per pip would...
Hi, don't mean to be critical of your trade, but when I look at the rescuse attempt, you were still in an uptrend. Best to wait for that trend to stop before the rescue. I do not trade the 5M chart, but your first entry was after the down trend was broken and a pretty clear signal for a north trade was present. Finally, I agree with auxesis that you had a B/E try and missed it, too. As fti has stated many times, rescue is appropriate when PA tells you. Glad you got back in and got some of it back!
  • #14,430
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:40am Apr 16, 2010 8:40am
looks like I have a bit of reading to catch up on since the week end.

sure acts like she wants to continue south but watchin how e/u 3515 area responds.
  • #14,431
  • Apr 16, 2010 8:46am Apr 16, 2010 8:46am
Quoting auxesis
a question?
Auxies,
If my rescue position was bigger, BE would be where you pointed. Since rescue was very close to initial entry I didn't go for 3X rescue. Is it wise to enter strong rescues very close to intitial entry?
Thanks for your comments
  • #14,432
  • Apr 16, 2010 9:04am Apr 16, 2010 9:04am
Quoting MyTbo
Auxies,
If my rescue position was bigger, BE would be where you pointed. Since rescue was very close to initial entry I didn't go for 3X rescue. Is it wise to enter strong rescues very close to intitial entry?
Thanks for your comments
What is the purpose of a rescue?

It's not to average in as price goes against you in hopes of price coming back. If you're not sure it was time to rescue why enter another position? There is no optimal distance for rescue, it is dependent solely upon PA. But once you decide to rescue it should be with purpose to bring your average position close for exit. 1x1 rescue leaves you having to retrace half the distance between your entries.

Not getting into your trades but your mindset is wrong, as your concerned with what's close what's not. Let your chart tell the tale and let it set the distances.
  • #14,433
  • Apr 16, 2010 9:21am Apr 16, 2010 9:21am
managed to flip @ 3515 as note taken of the action around 3500.

staying on my toes, collecting both ways.

which way now? shes moved 25 pips each side of 3515.
  • #14,434
  • Apr 16, 2010 9:22am Apr 16, 2010 9:22am
Quoting imjscn
MyTbo, there should not be a range for rescue opportunity-- what if the rescue opportunity comes at 70 pips level? Instead, there's a range for the decission of cutting according to your capital.
imjscn,
In one of my previous post I mentioned that 60pips is 2% of my capital, and this is the reason for the 50pips range. I guess you have missed this part in my post. If opportunity comes outside of the range, then my timing has been terrible, I've been wrong and I have to practice more Point is that realizing that I'm wrong would cost me 2%. A few times it costed me about 10% and I made it back after that, but the last time it costed me 30% and believe me the battle was exhausting and the result very painful. I almost lost the balls after this experience. I picked up myself of the ground and said to myself that such catastrophic loss shouldn't be allowed. If I am to learn to feel the flow, I shoud be able to do it in such small range in the first place.

Hi, GEfx

Do criticise me, I won't get offended by no means and what's more criticism will help me learn valuable lessons. I'm open to criticism guys, that's why I post my failed trades I'm not here to attack or offend anyone, I hope I haven't done it. If I have I'm most sorry. I'm here to improve my trading and your criticism is most welcome.

Best of luck and thanks for your comments.

MyTbo
  • #14,435
  • Apr 16, 2010 9:25am Apr 16, 2010 9:25am
Quoting MyTbo
imjscn,
In one of my previous post I mentioned that 60pips is 2% of my capital,

MyTbo
Reduce your scout size
  • #14,436
  • Apr 16, 2010 9:27am Apr 16, 2010 9:27am
Quoting MyTbo
imjscn,
In one of my previous post I mentioned that 60pips is 2% of my capital, and this is the reason for the 50pips range. I guess you have missed this part in my post. If opportunity comes outside of the range, then my timing has been terrible, I've been wrong and I have to practice more Point is that realizing that I'm wrong would cost me 2%. A few times it costed me about 10% and I made it back after that, but the last time it costed me 30% and believe me the battle was exhausting and the result very painful. I almost lost the balls after...
Great attitude my friend. Keep it going!
  • #14,437
  • Edited 10:24am Apr 16, 2010 10:04am | Edited 10:24am
Jest
welcome back. I am happy to know that
you survived.

Info
found a great iPhone tool:
Swiss forex.
Good to baby seat while away
from the trading room.
Check it out.

Now I go back to dance last Friday gap!
Edit: flat now after a very long war. Caught
in the sutnami. Now I ascend from hell
with victory. Time to enjoy a short vac in nycity.
Cheer.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #14,438
  • Apr 17, 2010 8:39am Apr 17, 2010 8:39am
Thanks Mark,imjscn & Setebos

That's called trading & I still need to learn more.

Best regards,
  • #14,439
  • Apr 17, 2010 9:07am Apr 17, 2010 9:07am
Quoting MyTbo
imjscn,
In...
Hey MyTbo, I love the attitude, keep up the good work! The only way is to trade your way to being successful, no holy grails and no rigid thinking in this business
By the way the 50 pips range is a bit rigid - in my opinion what should be setting your range should be PA. Market cares little about the number of pips - it will go as far as it goes. I had a friend who tried to use fixed attack/rescue parameters - he ended up giving up on forex due to heavy losses. Watch the shape and speed/momentum - they will point you the way.
Good luck my friend
  • #14,440
  • Apr 17, 2010 10:21am Apr 17, 2010 10:21am
Quoting luSan
Info
found a great iPhone tool:
Swiss forex.
Good to baby seat while away
from the trading room.
Check it out.

Now I go back to dance last Friday gap!
Edit: flat now after a very long war. Caught
in the sutnami. Now I ascend from hell
with victory. Time to enjoy a short vac in nycity.
Cheer.
Hi LuSan,

Check out "Forex OTG" for iPhone, it has ForexFactory calendar in it, too.

App is free unless you want to do Live trading with MT4 account.

regards,
90 traders viewing now