Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 69 | Forex Factory

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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #1,361
  • Apr 15, 2010 1:17am Apr 15, 2010 1:17am
GM - as usual, Medici's bullish outlook yesterday was correct and cable continued up in the Asian session.

As often happens, there was activity an hour before FO with a little fakeout below the 5500 level before another push up. The LH before FO was a heads up for a sell which gave a nice ~ 15 pips back to the 5500 support and then buy after the wide red marubozo held at the level for another possible run up.

The 5545 - 5620 area is resistance on the daily chart with 5620 as the 50% retrace of this years range....
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  • #1,362
  • Apr 15, 2010 1:34am Apr 15, 2010 1:34am
GM - I was sorely wrong expecting today to be an exciting day. I'll wait to see if 8am brings some action; if not I'm calling it a day.
  • #1,363
  • Apr 15, 2010 1:47am Apr 15, 2010 1:47am
Closed part of my long after the small green doji at the high, holding the remainder as I expect at least one push up to the resistance area that I mentioned earlier.

Market Profile from the US close has its HV POC level at 5505 IMO profit taking coming in.....TWT
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  • #1,364
  • Apr 15, 2010 1:55am Apr 15, 2010 1:55am
Quoting Islander
IMO profit taking coming in.....TWT
That's my take on it as well. But not unlikely the calm before the storm. We'll see...
  • #1,365
  • Apr 15, 2010 1:59am Apr 15, 2010 1:59am
Closed the remainder after the second attempt on the highs - a wide green marubozo that turned into a harami....now for LO....
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  • #1,366
  • Apr 15, 2010 2:33am Apr 15, 2010 2:33am
IMO the 45 pip rally in the dollar - aka Swissy - has pushed cable down to its days open in a low vol green spinning top and € to its 3600 level. I've just bought with a close stop and will see what happens.....IF it does bounce, then the action around the 5500 level will be important.....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,367
  • Apr 15, 2010 3:09am Apr 15, 2010 3:09am
Quoting Islander
IMO the 45 pip rally in the dollar - aka Swissy - has pushed cable down to its days open in a low vol green spinning top and € to its 3600 level. I've just bought with a close stop and will see what happens.....IF it does bounce, then the action around the 5500 level will be important.....TWT
The bounce was smaller than I expected, not reaching yesterdays high at 5490 so I banked some pips and reversed to short at the MR1

All of my MAs have now rolled over which suggests lower prices.....the next support is around the 5450 level which includes Tuesdays high and todays pivot at 5441
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,368
  • Apr 15, 2010 12:50pm Apr 15, 2010 12:50pm
Hi
Have been following your thread for a while now. Thanks for all the informative charts and explanations. I have been trading for about three months, I use 1min/5min charts using all the turning points most of you on here use pivots,s/r etc. But am struggling to define the trend in the morning when I start at 6, I use a four hour chart and 30min with a macd on the 30 to give me the direction usually, but am finding at the moment maybe due to low volume that its not working that well. I am noticing lately that when the 30min/1hour charts form a signal opposite to the direction I have been trading it seems a strong indication to a short term trend change would you agree? For example the hourly at 7am this morning. Are there any other tips you can give me to help me find the direction of the morning or a change of direction. Thanks in advance
  • #1,369
  • Apr 16, 2010 1:04am Apr 16, 2010 1:04am
GM - the overnight low was at the S1 level and a 78% retrace....also at the uptrend line on the hourly. The 5 min has just had a high vol wide ranged push down to break to new lows and its looking as if the 5400 level will come into play - I'm also watching the 6000 level on Swissy and yesterdays low / 3525 level on €
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  • #1,370
  • Apr 16, 2010 1:05am Apr 16, 2010 1:05am
Hi Reflex - I'll look at your post later - too busy trading now - I'm long from 5406....
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  • #1,371
  • Apr 16, 2010 1:57am Apr 16, 2010 1:57am
Quoting Islander
Hi Reflex - I'll look at your post later - too busy trading now - I'm long from 5406....
MMM - maybe a little early as we've retested yesterdays low in a high vol green spinning top on the 5 min - another buy...
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  • #1,372
  • Edited 2:47am Apr 16, 2010 2:28am | Edited 2:47am
Sorry I missed the sell at LO - I got involved on the phone - the low is now at the MS2 level - and with the earlier high at MR1 we already have a 140 pip range - 20 pips greater than the 20 day ADR......

The push to the low was in a wide ranged ultra high vol 5 min candle that the following low vol green spinning top made a harami.....I bought...my first target is S1 at 5410, also a 50% retrace of the last leg down from the pre FO high....

The 15 min chart has the low in a high vol hammer....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,373
  • Apr 16, 2010 2:43am Apr 16, 2010 2:43am
Quoting reflex
Hi
Have been following your thread for a while now. Thanks for all the informative charts and explanations. I have been trading for about three months, I use 1min/5min charts using all the turning points most of you on here use pivots,s/r etc. But am struggling to define the trend in the morning when I start at 6, I use a four hour chart and 30min with a macd on the 30 to give me the direction usually, but am finding at the moment maybe due to low volume that its not working that well. I am noticing lately that when the 30min/1hour charts form...

OK - my thoughts - firstly, I prefer not to go above the hourly except for the general picture - too many different brokers times give too many different bars / candles.

The run up into FO is often range-bound - lol, not today! - and so I'll be looking at the 15m and lower and this is the only time that I'll consider a break-out trade.

The FO / LO period is usually full of fake-outs as the big dogs try to get the best entries for their trades and it may well be that you've picked up on a useful edge - fade the hourly trend into FO......I suggest that you do some research and calculate the times / % that this gives a tradeable entry....

By the 7am hourly candle, I assume that you mean the red shooting star at 5am gmt....

FYI, there is often a H / L ~an hour before FO....http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,374
  • Edited 3:11am Apr 16, 2010 2:49am | Edited 3:11am
Quoting Islander
Sorry I missed the sell at LO - I got involved on the phone - the low is now at the MS2 level - and with the earlier high at MR1 we already have a 140 pip range - 20 pips greater than the 20 day ADR......

The push to the low was in a wide ranged ultra high vol 5 min candle that the following low vol green spinning top made a harami.....I bought...my first target is S1 at 5410, also a 50% retrace of the last leg down from the pre FO high....

The 15 min chart has the low in a high vol hammer....
Target hit on low vol, reversed to short

Edit: hit my very tight stop....still have 1/2 a long open....
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  • #1,375
  • Apr 16, 2010 3:28am Apr 16, 2010 3:28am
Remainder of long closed after the low vol push up to the earlier resistance ~the 5450 level / 61% retrace....took a small short and I'm finished for now....
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  • #1,376
  • Apr 16, 2010 3:46am Apr 16, 2010 3:46am
This morning's action.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: apr 16 cable folo 5m.gif Size: 25 KB
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  • #1,377
  • Apr 16, 2010 7:23am Apr 16, 2010 7:23am
Islander thanks for the help will have a look back over the weekend. One more question where do you take pivot calculations from 12pm-12pm or 10pm-10pm? I know someone asked the the other day but I didnt quite understand the answer.

Cheers
  • #1,378
  • Apr 19, 2010 1:11am Apr 19, 2010 1:11am
Quoting reflex
Islander thanks for the help will have a look back over the weekend. One more question where do you take pivot calculations from 12pm-12pm or 10pm-10pm? I know someone asked the the other day but I didnt quite understand the answer.

Cheers
5pm EST - New Ypork close.
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  • #1,379
  • Apr 19, 2010 1:18am Apr 19, 2010 1:18am
GM - the initial drop - brokers gap - on the open would not have surprised those who have read the book that Medici recommended - I guess it was a bit like shorting any airline last week

My alarm failed, so I missed the 5am gmt move - a sell off S2 into the new low in a higher volumed hammer that went 15 pips under the earlier low.

I sold the LH at FO and banked a few pips and am now watching to see IF the HL at 5232 holds....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,380
  • Apr 19, 2010 1:25am Apr 19, 2010 1:25am
GM. I also sold the HL at FO but held too long and lost 6 pips.
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