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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,381
  • Edited 4:59am Apr 15, 2010 4:46am | Edited 4:59am
Quoting berlinwong1
No matter how others adorn with efficacious and beautiful language to convince Technical Analysis Fallacy. I stand stead fast with Technical Analysis.

Trade via feel the trend is not appropiriate. I would rather trade with gauge and parameter.
OK to all the people.
there is perculiarities in your market access.
So last piece of advice.
DO NOT WALK INTO A GUN BATTLE WITH KNIFES.
If you insist to trade, trade cash, ZERO leverage.

err, berlinwong1, who do you imagine you are. AND, why are you here ?
No one is trying to convince you of anything. Nor anyone have the time to do so. So try clear out of your illusions. To each his own, huh?


regards
  • #14,382
  • Edited 5:45am Apr 15, 2010 5:08am | Edited 5:45am
Quoting fti
OK to all the people.
there is perculiarities in your market access.
So last piece of advice.
DO NOT WALK INTO A GUN BATTLE WITH KNIFES.
If you insist to trade, trade cash, ZERO leverage.

err, berlinwong1, who do you imagine you are. AND, why are you here ?
No one is trying to convince you of anything. Nor anyone have the time to do so. So try clear out of your illusions. To each his own, huh?


regards
Hello Fti. My whole possession is about $70.000 (7minilots), when selling my roof where should i live? What to do, when lose my mini? What to do then??? Regards
...and afterwards there is that thing... with my head...you know...
(There is a nice big house near ocean, black ferrari and private island in Greece... And one free day not helping my girlfriend!!!)... I cant leave this...
... maybe we can discuss to cancel that free day.....
  • #14,383
  • Apr 15, 2010 5:52am Apr 15, 2010 5:52am
@fana,

taken from If - Rudyard Kipling

if u can dream , and not let dream be ur master
if u can think , and not make thoughts be ur aim

then u will have everything under the sun , more importantly u will be a man...

also learn to attack , u ve a timing problem , wait for small retracements before adding , dont add big if its not a retracement ...
without proper attack , u will not be profitable ...

good trading n good day to all
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #14,384
  • Apr 15, 2010 5:54am Apr 15, 2010 5:54am
Quoting maheswara
@fana,

taken from If - Rudyard Kipling

if u can dream , and not let dream be ur master
if u can think , and not make thoughts be ur aim

then u will have everything under the sun , more importantly u will be a man...

also learn to attack , u ve a timing problem , wait for small retracements before adding , dont add big if its not a retracement ...
without proper attack , u will not be profitable ...

good trading n good day to all
  • #14,385
  • Apr 15, 2010 7:53am Apr 15, 2010 7:53am
Quoting Fana
Gro, MaMood

-When i have succesfull trade,i dont now how to add positions because when i use it, very often it reverses and my first position is "zero", but the second is in a loss,,, i am afraid of this...
-I dont use more than 1,1,2, because when i did it, 90% i had loss.
regards

you don't need to add positions to be profitable, i'm not able to add positions either, but i'm still profitable, this doesn't mean you don't have to search the way to do it.
Just learn 1 thing at a time, then add some more stuff, cause we never stop to learn.
  • #14,386
  • Apr 15, 2010 9:25am Apr 15, 2010 9:25am
Quoting Beman
you don't need to add positions to be profitable, i'm not able to add positions either, but i'm still profitable, this doesn't mean you don't have to search the way to do it.
Just learn 1 thing at a time, then add some more stuff, cause we never stop to learn.
Hi Beman. Yes and no. It is like with playing violin. I dont want to play piano. When you first time try piano, you can easily play some tones and accords. But when you try violin, it is awfull, non-sound. But violin is considered to be the king of instruments.

There is complexity in Fti's teaching. There are many parts which plays together to produce great performance.

I am convinced that they have to be trained together, in the same time. You have to see the"big picture"...

Very generally you can say, that when trading, you want to be a market. And how accurately you are "market"..... are your trading results.
regards
  • #14,387
  • Apr 15, 2010 9:28am Apr 15, 2010 9:28am
Hi Jest, glad to see you hanging around again, we have missed you!

Auxesis, I had 1.3496 as the price level to close the gap on the E/$, and we failed to get there by about 25 pips. Is that the same level for you?

Hope you are all trading well. I spent London trading the GBP/$ south, then rescued a E/$ trade for a few, and flipped a E/J trade to break even, so kind of exciting today for me.

fti, glad you have been posting the past few days and hope you are well. Spring has sprung here in middle America and I hope winter is behind us now.

Trade well everyone.
  • #14,388
  • Apr 15, 2010 9:40am Apr 15, 2010 9:40am
Quoting Fana
Hi Beman. Yes and no. It is like with playing violin. I dont want to play piano. When you first time try piano, you can easily play some tones and accords. But when you try violin, it is awfull, non-sound. But violin is considered to be the king of instruments.

There is complexity in Fti's teaching. There are many parts which plays together to produce great performance.

I am convinced that they have to be trained together, in the same time. You have to see the"big picture"...

Very generally you can say, that when trading, you want...
That's all right you have to feel comfortable with your trading, so do what you "feel". Just keep in mind that you can't predict what the market will do in the next 3-4 minutes/hours/days you have to act on the "now" moment.
I wouldn't compare market to an instrument, when you play violin you can get better till the perfection practicing, because the violin will follow you! Can't do that with trading, even if you practice (analyze) the market 24 hours a day you'll never do it perfectly, that's what this thread is all about: technical analysis fallacy in other words: no matter how hard you try with your analysis you'll never do it perfectly!


P.S Mine is just an opinion/suggestion you're obviously free to disagree, plus i don't want to offend you in anyway!

Regards
Nik
  • #14,389
  • Apr 15, 2010 9:48am Apr 15, 2010 9:48am
Quoting GEfx
Hi Jest, glad to see you hanging around again, we have missed you!

Auxesis, I had 1.3496 as the price level to close the gap on the E/$, and we failed to get there by about 25 pips. Is that the same level for you?

Hope you are all trading well. I spent London trading the GBP/$ south, then rescued a E/$ trade for a few, and flipped a E/J trade to break even, so kind of exciting today for me.

fti, glad you have been posting the past few days and hope you are well. Spring has sprung here in middle America and I hope winter is behind us now....
@Jest, Long time no see, good to see you back.

@GE, I had my eyes at the Big 3500 which (99) was the last tic Friday on my charts, some I think have eyes on 92 down to the .5 @ 87.. I was long Euro (small) after some news from around 40 up to 70 (milk money) missed the nice run at London. This last drop past couple of hours has me scratching my brain a little, so squared and on the sidelines for now.

@Fana, There's no complexity in FTI's teachings, the complexity is in the markets and your brain.

happy trading all,
  • #14,390
  • Apr 15, 2010 9:52am Apr 15, 2010 9:52am
I'd say it's more like an orchestra - you follow one instrument you may find the rhythm, but it will fail you on the longs run as it only plays a small part of the complete orchestra mechanism ...

...and we are the lads trying hard to be in sync with the music while dancing with our ladies who happen to know the dance like no one else on earth...
  • #14,391
  • Apr 15, 2010 9:55am Apr 15, 2010 9:55am
Hi Auxesis. Yes.

Beman. Yes, that is true, but i thought things like sigma, vega, delta, mindset ......
I agree that it is unpredictable like in "analysis". I understand this...

Hi Setebos. Yes
  • #14,392
  • Apr 15, 2010 10:03am Apr 15, 2010 10:03am
Imho, we were talking in fractals
Attached Image
  • #14,393
  • Apr 15, 2010 10:07am Apr 15, 2010 10:07am
Quoting Fana
Hi Auxesis. Yes.

Beman. Yes, that is true, but i thought things like sigma, vega, delta, mindset ......
I agree that it is unpredictable like in "analysis". I understand this...

Hi Setebos. Yes
Hey Fana keep it up!! now you're breakin even but one day you'll wake up you'll read one of the most stupid thing on a forum or book (something you already knew since the beginning of your trading career), and you'll say HA HA!!! and you'll start to be profitable, then you'll look to all the errors you did in those years and how silly you've been...
Probably you already know how to be profitable it's just that you can't recognize it, probably it's too early, just don't give up!
  • #14,394
  • Apr 15, 2010 10:10am Apr 15, 2010 10:10am
Quoting Beman
Hey Fana keep it up!! now you're breakin even but one day you'll wake up you'll read one of the most stupid thing on a forum or book (something you already knew since the beginning of your trading career), and you'll say HA HA!!! and you'll start to be profitable, then you'll look to all the errors you did in those years and how silly you've been...
Probably you already know how to be profitable it's just that you can't recognize it, probably it's too early, just don't give up!
. Me? Give up? Joke of the day
Seriously, i am trying to do my best
  • #14,395
  • Apr 15, 2010 10:13am Apr 15, 2010 10:13am
Quoting Fana
. Me? Give up? Joke of the day:
Seriously, i am trying to do my best
eh eh!! sorry but your previous message sounded a little demotivated!!
that's why i was cheering!!
  • #14,396
  • Apr 15, 2010 1:32pm Apr 15, 2010 1:32pm
Hi, guys
When looking at the daily and 4H timeframe I am copletely puzzled. I can't decide if it is up trend or down trend these days. It will cost me too much to figure it out. So I zoomed to the 15 and 5 min timeframes and dance there. I don't dare leave trades to ride, I just go for 10-30 pips targets, depending on the dance tempo and terrain. I imposed very defensive rules to my trading, after the last big loss. Now I dance in maximum 50pips range(if position is bigger range gets smaller), I decided that if I can't rescue a trade in a small range then I must not try to do it in a 100-200 pips range.

@Fana
I had the same problems with attacking. Now when I have a winning position and I add to it, I risk only the profits from this position. If PA reverses when I add, I get out at break even, bad call next time it will be better. That's how I intend to preserve the book. Yes, sometimes I will exit and see PA continue in my direction, but preservation of capital is more important for me.

I intend to work hard on timing my entries. When in uptrend I will enter at in retracement just above a support level, which I assume will hold. If it doesn't hold I will look for rescues at the nearest support. If nearest support is further than 30 pips, I will use extreme caution, if it is outside my 50 pips range I will exit at a small loss(10-15) I think this strategy will prevent me from trading against the flow and trying to rescue a dead in waters position, especially when tidal waves come agains me.

Have good trading guys, MyTbo
  • #14,397
  • Edited 2:10pm Apr 15, 2010 2:00pm | Edited 2:10pm
Quoting MyTbo
which I assume will hold.
If nearest support is further than 30 pips, I will use extreme caution, if it is outside my 50 pips range
Why not wait and see if it holds or some type of action at the level before entering instead of stepping out blind?

Best not to have static levels, let the chart show, would be better imho, to reduce size and allow extra room instead of limiting range for movement if it's outside your risk tolerance, but each instance is different, decision is rescue attempt worth it or am I trying to swim up the waterfall.

regards
  • #14,398
  • Edited 2:31pm Apr 15, 2010 2:11pm | Edited 2:31pm
Quoting MyTbo
Hi, guys
When looking at the daily and 4H timeframe I am copletely puzzled. I can't decide if it is up trend or down trend...
Dangerous
very dangerous in the long run.

Price spreads is 2 pips, slippage + spread , average 6 pips
risk tolerance 10 -15 pips means that as soon as you get in a position. Next few quotes you will be cutting. You profit range anything less than 50 pips then there is no flow.
you trading congestions. you are dependent on accuracy of your perceived support or resistence. you are scalping. Absolutely dangerous MO. Market makers will eat you alive for you trying to scalp them. Market makers range of swing is about 20 pips on bid and offer(averageing 30/50 pips). You are right inside their scalp range.

You have no attack strategies, neither defense. So you will never maximise trends.In congestions , if they were market maker swing range, you will be scalped.

Think again.
Did you actually read the thread?
Whats with the daily and 4H time frames, where did that come from?
Another thing is how are you preserving book , by dying a million scalps. whats the difference if you just put stop loss and let them scalp you to death?


regards
  • #14,399
  • Apr 15, 2010 5:57pm Apr 15, 2010 5:57pm
Quoting fti
Dangerous
very dangerous in the long run.

Price spreads is 2 pips, slippage + spread , average 6 pips
risk tolerance 10 -15 pips means that as soon as you get in a position. Next few quotes you will be cutting. You profit range anything less than 50 pips then there is no flow.
you trading congestions. you are dependent on accuracy of your perceived support or resistence. you are scalping. Absolutely dangerous MO. Market makers will eat you alive for you trying to scalp them. Market makers range of swing is about 20 pips on bid and offer(averageing...

Wise words, just when I needed them. I have been lurking now for a few weeks. Been trading Fti style for the last 2. Had my first losing day today and it was all my fault. Got distracted while trading, bad for the book.
Where is Leigh and her whip when I need it? LOL

Thanks for the insights Fti, this way of trading seems to agree with me.
  • #14,400
  • Edited Apr 16, 2010 2:54am Apr 15, 2010 6:33pm | Edited Apr 16, 2010 2:54am
HI everyone,

Sorry a bit late on mouse tracking I was busy with my work.

6 months ago(or may be longer) I opened demo account with IBFX and at that time they were begginning to quote 5 digits(instead of 4 digits). My platform couldn't take 5 digits even I tried to download many times so I had a chat (on line) with them about my problem.
At first we had tried many things but it won't work until at the end they asked me to click something somewhere(which I can't remmember long time ago). Gee!! my mouse had been moved not by me(and most properly they can a view at my platform too) then the problem sloved. So I think if they want to track your mouse they can but whether it's legal or not???

IMHO - They can't handle to track most of their customers but special customer they will treat you special too. in many way if not mouse traking. Then either the customer leave or making less money and if customer want to complain it's going to be long long story & take time and no evident(I'm not so sure about that I'm not IT guy). Most customer leave - too much hessle. Just my opinion I might be wrong.

Just like in casino if you are high roller they will definately treat you special.

Best regards,
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