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A Simple London Breakout

  • #81
  • Apr 14, 2010 1:43am Apr 14, 2010 1:43am
Okay, now that we're back in business, here is my rundown of Tuesdays trades.

Eur/Usd was ranging really bad resulting in 4 losses of -45 pips each before hitting our target for +34 pips.

No Martingale

-45
-45
-45
-45
+34 =
-146 pips

With Martingale Multiplier

-45
-90 (-45 x 2)
-225 (-45 x 5)
-585 (45 x 13)
+1156 (+34 x 34) =
+211 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 114 KB
  • #82
  • Apr 14, 2010 1:45am Apr 14, 2010 1:45am
Gbp/Usd had a box size over 50 pips so a "No Trade" recommendation is given.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.jpg Size: 97 KB
  • #83
  • Apr 14, 2010 1:46am Apr 14, 2010 1:46am
Usd/Jpy had two standard trades @ 25 pips each for a total of +50 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 103 KB
  • #84
  • Apr 14, 2010 1:50am Apr 14, 2010 1:50am
Eur/Jpy was a borderline trade as the box was right at 50 pips. You could had went either way on this one. Since it was at and not over 50 pips, I would've taken the trades. Two more standard trades were made for 50 pips each for a total of +100 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #85
  • Apr 14, 2010 1:54am Apr 14, 2010 1:54am
Usd/Chf was range bound as well with 1 losing trade of -35 pips and 1 winner for +27 pips.

No Martingale

-35
+27 =
-8 pips

With Martingale Multiplier

-35
+54 (+27 x 2)
+19 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.jpg Size: 103 KB
  • #86
  • Apr 14, 2010 2:01am Apr 14, 2010 2:01am
So as we can see with no martingale multipliers used we ended up with an overall loss of:

-146
+50
+100
-8 =
-4 pips

But with the martingale multiplier in effect we have this:

+211
+50
+100
+19 =
+380 pips
  • #87
  • Apr 14, 2010 2:26am Apr 14, 2010 2:26am
Quoting mer071898
Here is a simple London breakout strategy based on a variation of my BoxFibo indicator from my London Progressive Strategy thread.

I will pick out a few pairs starting on Monday, the 12th, and show some examples of how the trades would have unfolded. You should see roughly around a 70-80% win ratio overall. The pairs I will be monitoring are:

Eur/Usd
Gbp/Usd
Usd/Jpy
Eur/Jpy
Usd/Chf

It sounds as if you're developing a variation on the Big Ben Breakout,
which is covered in an article entitled
"Day Trading the FX Market: A Different Approach to the Pound"
by Kristian Kerr. (Google Search for a .pdf copy).

This is the chart from that article (from the Sept 2004 issue of
Currency Trader magazine) which gives you an idea of which
currencies suddenly pick up speed starting with the London open:

http://forextac.com/wp-content/uploa...nal_1_0001.png
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #88
  • Apr 14, 2010 4:30am Apr 14, 2010 4:30am
can someone modify the template to put the box size ? this will avoid taking trades when size > 50. right now we need to manually calculate the size
  • #89
  • Apr 14, 2010 4:47am Apr 14, 2010 4:47am
Read the first post, there is different box sizes for different pairs.
  • #90
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:19am Apr 14, 2010 6:19am
Quoting rebelheart
Read the first post, there is different box sizes for different pairs.
what i mean is if we can see the box size written in the template, then we can easily take a decision to skip or not. right now we need to calculate the diff between bax hi, lo
  • #91
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:31am Apr 14, 2010 6:31am
Added parameter MaxBoxSize which holds the maximum possible size in pips... if this maximum size is exceeded, no box will be painted!
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 London%20Breakout.mq4   4 KB | 864 downloads
  • #92
  • Apr 14, 2010 7:07am Apr 14, 2010 7:07am
Is anybody having problem with fib colours on a black back ground? It seems as if the lines are drawn in black only and do not change even if white is selected as colour.
Regards
  • #93
  • Apr 14, 2010 7:17am Apr 14, 2010 7:17am
Quoting howard
Is anybody having problem with fib colours on a black back ground? It seems as if the lines are drawn in black only and do not change even if white is selected as colour.
Should be fixed, too!
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 London%20Breakout.mq4   4 KB | 718 downloads
  • #94
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:25am Apr 14, 2010 8:25am
Quoting mer071898
Remember, martingale strategies are inherently risky and should not be used unless adequate capital is available.

The lot multiplier I will be using after each loss will start as follows:

after 1st loss- X 2
after 2st loss- X 5
after 3st loss- X 13
after 4st loss- X 34
after 5st loss- X 89
after 6st loss- X 233
[color=Blue]after 7st loss- X 610
Hello mer071898,
Did you check such a Martingale on Eur/Jpy round January ... an account blower for some ... high risk for others ... I'm not sure Martingale only would do without trying to include some market trending indicator (I know we try to avoid indi here, and I'm for KISS, but who knows 2-3 EMAs are not that bad).

Furthermore, I'm trying Martingale, but by adjusting the nb of lots with the Take Profit on the fibs (I mean .. let's use these TakeProfit to our advantage), and eventually by conserving a 2% risk for each trade not martingaled and deciding about the number of lots to martingale if necessary based on some little market action indi.

I like your breakout strategy and the fibs target. KISS makes me happy. I will just input a little of what I do in my other strategies to investigate if it may contribute positively to your strategy.

Thanks for posting more charts. This is helpful. Do you have any other criteria for reversal ?

Quoting blunderbuss
It sounds as if you're developing a variation on the Big Ben Breakout,
which is covered in an article entitled
"Day Trading the FX Market: A Different Approach to the Pound"
by Kristian Kerr. (Google Search for a .pdf copy).
Thanks for that. I realize there were also other thread about this on FF and I will check 'em.

XmPh.
  • #95
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:59am Apr 14, 2010 8:59am
Quoting xmph
Hello mer071898,
Did you check such a Martingale on Eur/Jpy round January ... an account blower for some ... high risk for others ... I'm not sure Martingale only would do without trying to include some market trending indicator (I know we try to avoid indi here, and I'm for KISS, but who knows 2-3 EMAs are not that bad).

Furthermore, I'm trying Martingale, but by adjusting the nb of lots with the Take Profit on the fibs (I mean .. let's use these TakeProfit to our advantage), and eventually by conserving a 2% risk for each trade not martingaled...
PLEASE DO NOT MARTINGALE IF YOU ARE A NEWBIE.

IT WILL KILL YOU.

DEMO AT LEAST FOR 6 MONTHS.

  • #96
  • Apr 14, 2010 9:15am Apr 14, 2010 9:15am
Quoting nightyhawk
Should be fixed, too!

Is it possible to fix the Fibo line lengths so that it should remain in the period separator area? For larger TF they are mixing with each other!
  • #97
  • Apr 14, 2010 9:59am Apr 14, 2010 9:59am
Quoting kijkij
Is it possible to fix the Fibo line lengths so that it should remain in the period separator area? For larger TF they are mixing with each other!
Try lower value for FibLength parameter (indicator properties). A value of 2 will keep the fib's level length short enough so that those fib lines won't overlapped each other at H1 chart
  • #98
  • Apr 14, 2010 1:34pm Apr 14, 2010 1:34pm
Quote
what i mean is if we can see the box size written in the template, then we can easily take a decision to skip or not. right now we need to calculate the diff between bax hi, lo

C'mon now guys, are we that lazy to take a whole 5 seconds to use your crosshair tool to get the box size, really?

Quote
Is anybody having problem with fib colours on a black back ground? It seems as if the lines are drawn in black only and do not change even if white is selected as colour.

nightyhawk, I tried both of the modified indicators you posted but nothing shows up when placed on a chart. (see pic)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic1.jpg Size: 162 KB
  • #99
  • Apr 14, 2010 1:53pm Apr 14, 2010 1:53pm
Quoting mer071898
C'mon now guys, are we that lazy to take a whole 5 seconds to use your crosshair tool to get the box size, really?



nightyhawk, I tried both of the modified indicators you posted but nothing shows up when placed on a chart. (see pic)
Seems you are using a 5digit broker... hmmm eventually you should extend the parameter MaxBarSize to 300...?
  • #100
  • Apr 14, 2010 2:27pm Apr 14, 2010 2:27pm
Quote
Hello mer071898,
Did you check such a Martingale on Eur/Jpy round January ... an account...
I'm sorry I just don't see where January was a bad month. Profit targets were hit over half of the time and I only saw, at the most, 3 losses in a row. But as I said several times now, martingale strategies are not designed for those who do not have the capital or account equity to back up the trades that are taken.

I have an account size where if I started with .01 lots I could feasibly go 12 losses in a row and not be margin called and I've never seen it go half that far yet. Will it eventually have 8, 9, maybe 10 to 11 losses in a row, maybe, but that would be an extremely rare instance. A pair would have to range for the whole week without a spike or news event or just plain lousy price action to get that far and I have yet to see that happen.

With regards to reversal, no I really have no criteria for them. Best thing to do is watch the chart and see how the price reverses at certain levels and then we'll have to look at adjusting the entry point more, but that will come later.

Quote
PLEASE DO NOT MARTINGALE IF YOU ARE A NEWBIE.

IT WILL KILL YOU.

DEMO AT LEAST FOR 6 MONTHS.
If you've bothered to read the WHOLE thread, I have already mention the risk of martingale techniques several times. No one is forcing anyone to use a martingale style of trading in this thread.

Quote
Is it possible to fix the Fibo line lengths so that it should remain in the period separator area? For larger TF they are mixing with each other!
This strategy was not designed for higher timeframes.

Quote
Seems you are using a 5digit broker... hmmm eventually you should extend the parameter MaxBarSize to 300...?
I have been using the original indicators with no issues, but it now works, thanks.
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