USDCAD trend reversal?

We have a nice upper TL break. Target is at the green line which is 1.0180 & you could put a SL at the red line which is 1.0000

Hi Ferndog: nice chart. My take is not a TL break; since candle you drew did not close > than the TL.

Also, next candle had hi'R HI & should be used to draw revised TL.
Plus, STO going down as well as {THIS IS THE BIGGIE THING THAT I WAIT FOR in order to determine a TL break} MacD did not X > then its signal.

Your post did give me info to ponder & levels to beware of & thanks for it.
$ will go where $ wants to go.If your up TL is breached, I'll buy ( & thank you all the way to the bank)

FOTO: sorry to be so thick. My take: US/CAD up E/US down. Y/n?

USDCAD is still coming down, so what is your next step?

Thanks.

People trade your own thoughts. This way you know why you have the trade on. If it does not perform or it does perform you would have an anchor (trade entry) to reference from. The most difficult part of a trade is not entry, it is what follows where the screwups occur.
How often does it happen that second thoughts pop up in the mind, for as soon as entry happens the trade moves. Do I hold for more gains, crap it went against me right off, quick close it out, then as soon as you do it marches right on back to entry and sure enough it goes plus. Quick let me get in again, crap its happening again. So on and so forth.
Meanwhile all the action is consuming the account.

Think of fishing. To go big game fishing, one is not going with a 10 lbs test line to tackle tuna. You will bust that fish right off. In the north country how many muskies will come to the net if you fish a bobber and a bamboo pole? That is why I prefer wide stops and longer time frames for it gives the market the chance to sort things out and gives me a chance to evaluate do I stay or do I go.

My thinking should not be your thinking. That is the greatest error of all, letting others thoughts modify your own ideas.
Last evening the USD bears got the greatest gift of all, the long awaited revaluation of Asian currencies (Singapore dollar) I am flat the EURO/USD now after being short. I think the US dollar bears will run this pair right up today out of New York. But it is also coming smack up against the 20 sma on the monthlies where the Euro bears should be parked. It should be an interesting day. When the aftermath of whatever the outcome, I will be looking for a place to go short late afternoon or in Asia or the witching hour tonite. But it will be based upon price action today which will hopefully give me a clue about who has the stronger hand Bears or Bulls.
Technically near term, most time frames daily and under are up this pair but the monthlies (the 800 lbs. gorrilla) are strongly down, and the fundamentals as far as I'm concerned say sell the Euro.

So my bias is to sell Euro's. Obama in his trip to Asia had the message the Whitehouse wants no more manipulation as it will cost him the presidency.
The US dollar bears believe parking money every where but in the US. The end of the money is coming goes the mantra.

Who has the most troops will determine the outcome. The European session is still buying dollars as this post is being written. But ahead today we have retail sales, then Bernanke in front of congress trying to explain away high unemployment (1/2 of the Fed mandate is to balance job growth with inflation) My gut and head says wait until later there will be better levels and more info to make a decision.

At least there is a plan, to act from. I try not to fly blind.

I will add one more thing. One of the reasons I post here is because it helps my trading. So it is self serving. When one makes a post it forces the mind to make a call, for we do not post wishing to be looked at as a fool. The ego prevents that happening unless of course we are a fool, then there is no hope.

So if one is serious about trading make posts, whether here or somewhere else. Nothing better then to get ones ideas down in print and know that someone else is looking over the work criticaly.

Do not allow ego to prevent the post being made, from feeling undergunned. One thing about forex there is no difference between Kings for a day and Paupers. Like the end of time, it comes to all without anything capable of being done about it.

So get your butts in gear and make posts and trade to win.
All the best wishes for today, and good luck.

So far so good, made the mistake of not going along for the ride as the young turks with lots of soverign money, led the charge as the European session closed out. Pretty nice spike in price in Euro/USD
They are meeting some solid selling pressure at the sunday evening high level. And not even able to hold up price through the lunch hour.
One of my resolutions for the year is to only take low risk entries, so that means finding areas in the market where serious order backlogs are there to keep entry drawdowns to a minimum. Should be another attempt to run up price this afternoon and how selling pressure responds will show the depth of market for Euro bears.

Then the thin Asia trade at night will test the USD bull once more as the Asia market will most certainly sell dollars. The US trade deficit keeps them well armed.

I think the Euro is destined lower over time and this area currently trading should be an area worth taking a stand.

Short the Euro/USD at 1.3657 on weak price response to Beige book . Wide stop for initial entry at 1.3809, and I will get some sleep tonite instead of worrying about some market in asia.

Remain short Euro/GBP thru all the ups and downs.

Sold my shorts during NY, & pip god smiled upon me

4H tonight suggests retrace (STO up) but MacD <H2O & < than signal! Also, the 50 ema is down. I am waiting 9985 Prev S/R levels for direction.

Read FOTO's post on 800lb gorilla- an earlier post of mine gave M/W/& D direction of the teks- that is why my bias is bear on loonie pair.

9900 next target but not tonight.

WRT Euro/US I'm bear, but long term (too much euphoria this weekend re: how wonderful Greece is)so I would like 3580 break downwards to sell.

Good trading to ya PHAM

FOTO: TOO TRUE!
From my limited experience on this thread (before Christmas, I was calling for parity) many disagreed,I had occasion to doubt my decisions;however,the input was valuable & caused me to review MY trade choices.
I also learned about fundamentals in my tek trading equation (as well as gaining new sources of information to further my knowledge in this unfamiliar area).
Result in March: pip god was good; but results would have been better had I followed my OWN advice & not made a few COUNTERTREND trades.

Well done Scarecru.

The fuse is now lite in Euroland after the overnight events. All those US trade deficit dollars (courtesy of the Fed) and the Asian manipulation of currencies has created tremendous stress in international markets. Countries have neither the resources, nor apparently the legal authority to bail out the world.

German taxpayers will not play the chump. Without Germany the Euro is in deep trouble.

There will be great volatility in the EURO/USD and EURO/GBP. I will leave on the initial stop rather then move to breakeven. Open trade gains will give a cushion for whatever happens.

The Central Bankers have discovered that icebergs are bigger then them. The real forces of markets cannot be distorted forever.

Keep an eye on commodity currencies they may start to reflect the first wifts of the direction forward. This could really get going.

[quote=foto;3638662]One of my resolutions for the year is to only take low risk entries, so that means finding areas in the market where serious order backlogs are there to keep entry drawdowns to a minimum. quote]

FOTO: would you mind attempting to educate this fundamentally challenged trader about "finding areas.....where serious order backlogs are" never knew of such a thing, Learning alot. Thank you

- Long -

Entry: 1.00459
Stop: 1.00104

morning Scarecru,
In response. All markets have groups of institutions that have order backlogs (money to be moved) but not executed yet. These outstanding orders represent buying/selling pressure that will be brought to the market at some time.
An example are instituitions that sell options. To prevent those options from getting hit they errect option barriers in the market. Large orders that just sit there as insurance in case the market takes a move adverse to the interests of that issuing institution. Option markets are good examples of why buyers are entering a rigged game. The House holds the upper hand and can control smaller events to make your option expire worthless. If one can beat the house the rewards are huge. I will not get into how to trade options as I do not. But suffice to say buyer beware.

Now if you want to put on a position, why not attempt to have a lot of company with your order. In markets the army with the most troops has an advantage. If bulls have more money to back their position they will dominate the price action. Self evident.

To accomplish the worthy goal is the difficulty. We do not have knowledge of the order book. If we did and used that knowldege it is illegal and called front running, or trading on inside knowledge. For doing this, one is placed under the care of a state institution, with bars on the windows.

However it is perfectly OK if one attempts from publicaly available info (price action) to judge the strength of the order books as they get implemented.
This is a skill that once was called tape reading. One of those recommended books I mentioned was written by a fellow who practised that art.
It is not infallible, but we are looking to develop an edge in the market. A way to have a probabilisticaly favorable outcome.

Yogi Berra once said "you can learn a lot by watching" My suggestion to you is spend a lot of time watching price and learn patterns that emerge as institutions enter and exit markets.

Hello andradewjr, Just had a break of the daily 13 EMA which is something I watch. This m.v. has contained a lot of the down move on the USD/CAD

Will see as the day progresses. maybe a turn in this pair is occurring. We all have been fooled many times by going long this pair, but one never knows for sure the perfect time is at hand.

ANYONE SEE SUCH A BIG SPIKE NOW??

Crackup is coming from Yen pairs. When things break they really break.
Too much stress in the markets from currency misalignments. Nothing gradual about this move all those cad longs are getting creamed.
Amazing news coming through on news pge.

Been buying at and below parity and scalping the range. Enjoying a nice large long from 1.0015

See my analysis from my journal. About 80% of my trades are with this pair so I am very familiar with its movements.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...1&postcount=43

Hi, Which book was this if you don't mind me asking?

I'm in the market for a few new trading books as I have just recently finished reading what I have... I'd highly recommend "Trading From The Gut" btw, that's a book I just finished and I'm sure it can benefit a lot of traders.