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  • #101
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:18am Apr 14, 2010 6:18am
missed this...break of TL , retest and she goes...
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  • #102
  • Edited 6:33am Apr 14, 2010 6:18am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting lovejoy80
Thanks...so S1 is daily support 1 and thus M2 is halfway between daily pivot and S1 and M1 halfway between S1 and S2?
thats correct. After a previous down day ie closing lower than the open, the predicted high and strong resistence is M3 and the predicted low and strong support is M1 so the predicted trading range of the day is M1-M3. After a previous up day the range is from M2-M4 just use them like fibs to get confluence s/R to trade from
Quoting lovejoy80
Do these work on some pairs more than others...
yes they do work better on some more than others as do fibs and trendlines but i wouldnt trade without them on anything. they wrk well on all the majors with Eur/Usd being maybe just a touch more predictable.
Quoting lovejoy80
is the 5min time frame the optimum one?
doesent really matter, it depends on your style, stops and targets etc but the daily pivots are for intraday trading. multiple time frames to give you a good perspective from the 4 hour down to the 5min is optimal in my book

Looks like you creamed me with that AUD/USD long against my short, Price was still resisted at that level though - i was 15 pips up at one point with no draw as struggled to break. This break is a very bullish sign if it holds
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #103
  • Apr 14, 2010 6:52am Apr 14, 2010 6:52am
I think, EU will fill the gap..
  • #104
  • Apr 14, 2010 7:26am Apr 14, 2010 7:26am
All three UC trades closed @ 0.9970 - counter trend trading can hurt!

CJ hit stop loss @ 93.59 - wanted to get out @ BE as it didnt take off but SL got hit first.

Therefore still in E/A, E/C, A/U, A/N, E/G

TAG (from oil trade last night until now) @ + 121.76% ...a tough week this week for sure.
  • #105
  • Apr 14, 2010 7:28am Apr 14, 2010 7:28am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
thats correct. After a previous down day ie closing lower than the open, the predicted high and strong resistence is M3 and the predicted low and strong support is M1 so the predicted trading range of the day is M1-M3. After a previous up day the range is from M2-M4 just use them like fibs to get confluence s/R to trade from

yes they do work better on some more than others as do fibs and trendlines but i wouldnt trade without them on anything. they wrk well on all the majors with Eur/Usd being maybe just a touch more predictable.

doesent really...
Thanks ... do you have an indicator?

Yeah AU trade worked out...but as you say there was a 'reaction' at that level....might get some volatility after economic news release.
  • #106
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:13am Apr 14, 2010 8:13am
Closed AU @ 0.9339...think retrace is coming.

Went short CJ, UJ, AJ, [email protected], 93.51, 87.33, 144.21 - 1.5% risk on each. Will post charts and analysis later
  • #107
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:19am Apr 14, 2010 8:19am
Quoting lovejoy80
Closed AU @ 0.9339...think retrace is coming.

Went short CJ, UJ, AJ, [email protected], 93.51, 87.33, 144.21 - 1.5% risk on each. Will post charts and analysis later
...
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  • #108
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:21am Apr 14, 2010 8:21am
Sold GU @ 1.5451...
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  • #109
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:25am Apr 14, 2010 8:25am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yeah AU trade worked out...but as you say there was a 'reaction' at that level....might get some volatility after economic news release.
Hi LJoy,

I also shorted A/U at 1.459, but DJ (equities) is going up and lately this has not a good effect on USD. I mean euro can get more strength.

I am in E/Cad too from 1.37 Monday PB, doing well so far.

I noticed providing the required confluence you are not intimidated by opening counter trades. Am I correct?

Cheers
  • #110
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:25am Apr 14, 2010 8:25am
Quoting lovejoy80
All three UC trades closed @ 0.9970 - counter trend trading can hurt!

CJ hit stop loss @ 93.59 - wanted to get out @ BE as it didnt take off but SL got hit first.

Therefore still in E/A, E/C, A/U, A/N, E/G

TAG (from oil trade last night until now) @ + 121.76% ...a tough week this week for sure.
That's the toughest week in last 4 months LJ, and it came out as i started trading my live account.
  • #111
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:31am Apr 14, 2010 8:31am
Me again,

when I opened the A/U trade I got something like a 7 pips spread!! I am using IBFX.
Just as curiosity what was your spread?

Thanks
  • #112
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:32am Apr 14, 2010 8:32am
I meant E/A trade. Sorry
  • #113
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:35am Apr 14, 2010 8:35am
Quoting nasir.khan
That's the toughest week in last 4 months LJ, and it came out as i started trading my live account.
It definitely has been tough that's for sure...hopefully some yen strength will make for some winning trades...though without dow weakness I feel we weon't get a big move. Lots of choppyness this week, one trade I've got pending that looks a good setup is short oil @ 85.40.

It always seems the way doesn't it, risking real money and things start to change.
  • #114
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:38am Apr 14, 2010 8:38am
Quoting ogeid
Me again,

when I opened the A/U trade I got something like a 7 pips spread!! I am using IBFX.
Just as curiosity what was your spread?

Thanks
I have 7 pip spread on fxpro and 4 on alpari and Oanda.

MT4 generally sucks for spread compared to Oanda I find...if it wasn't for the charts and MQ4 I wouldnt use MT4.
  • #115
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:43am Apr 14, 2010 8:43am
Quoting ogeid
Hi LJoy,

I also shorted A/U at 1.459, but DJ (equities) is going up and lately this has not a good effect on USD. I mean euro can get more strength.

I am in E/Cad too from 1.37 Monday PB, doing well so far.

I noticed providing the required confluence you are not intimidated by opening counter trades. Am I correct?

Cheers
Yes, there isd a correlation between risk appetite and USD strength...if risk appetite is good dow goes up and USD goes down...and the commodity currencies like AU (with high interest rate differential too) benefit the most...well thats a simplistic picture and its not 100% correlation.

Also need to bear in mind Gold with A/U...for me gold was struggling to get above resistance thats why I exited A/U trade.

I'd much prefer to take some trend trades i.e. pick the beginning of a trend and ride breaks of peaks on the way or buy on pullbakcs...but this week thre has not been much trend action, thus I also like to pick range extremes or reversals / reactions at heavily confluenced areas.

I'm not that good at holding trades (which can help when not trending as the moves are small) but I've defintiely missed out on some decent trade where I've exited as a trend forms.
  • #116
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:55am Apr 14, 2010 8:55am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes, there isd a correlation between risk appetite and USD strength...if risk appetite is good dow goes up and USD goes down...and the commodity currencies like AU (with high interest rate differential too) benefit the most...well thats a simplistic picture and its not 100% correlation.
Eventually I am wrong (I hope) E/U has at the moment also a bearish divergence in H4.

4 pips spread with Alpari and MT4 is not bad. I am looking for a new broker, I already have MT4 so I do not mind any suggestion?

Tx
  • #117
  • Apr 14, 2010 8:55am Apr 14, 2010 8:55am
Quoting lovejoy80
It definitely has been tough that's for sure...hopefully some yen strength will make for some winning trades...though without dow weakness I feel we weon't get a big move. Lots of choppyness this week, one trade I've got pending that looks a good setup is short oil @ 85.40.

It always seems the way doesn't it, risking real money and things start to change.
Whats wrong with 85.00?
.
  • #118
  • Apr 14, 2010 9:02am Apr 14, 2010 9:02am
Quoting nasir.khan
Whats wrong with 85.00?
.
Nothing lol...for some reason I didnt see that, need to slow down a bit at times and take closer look at things as I do miss some obvious setups
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  • #119
  • Apr 14, 2010 9:10am Apr 14, 2010 9:10am
Quoting nasir.khan
Whats wrong with 85.00?
.
Hi Nasir,

I read you a lot in the J16. Nice to talk to you and LJoy.

Why would you short oil at 85/85.5 ? It looks pretty bearish to me. There was a strong reaction to go further down with the long Pin Bar in H4 (long tail)
Just for my understanding.
Tx
  • #120
  • Apr 14, 2010 9:12am Apr 14, 2010 9:12am
Quoting lovejoy80
Nothing lol...for some reason I didnt see that, need to slow down a bit at times and take closer look at things as I do miss some obvious setups
Check 85.10 @ Weekly.
.
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