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  • #81
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:32pm Apr 13, 2010 1:32pm
Just took profit on oil as it hit potential TL resistance...a nice end to the day . It's been a rubbish day to trade today so much chop.

Closed Oil @ 84.19

Also took profit on EUR / AUD @ 1.4665

TAG now @ 146.32%
  • #82
  • Apr 13, 2010 4:02pm Apr 13, 2010 4:02pm
Note to self ...look at daily charts before trading tomorrow...pins on all xxx/jpy of TL or support gold and oil rebounded off support levels...could be a heads up to dollar and JPY weakness tomorrow.
  • #83
  • Apr 14, 2010 12:54am Apr 14, 2010 12:54am
Stopped out on EU and CJ shorts @ 1.3602 and 93.10.

TAG now @ 124.22%
  • #84
  • Apr 14, 2010 1:23am Apr 14, 2010 1:23am
Hi, lovejoy80

the strategy works very well, I was doing backtesting to get a feel about it, one quick question, how do you avoid the range market as much as you can? what annoys me is the situation the range market gives too many false breaks. I think I will do some demo trading following your method. thank you for sharing your trades.

jeurre
  • #85
  • Apr 14, 2010 4:23am Apr 14, 2010 4:23am
Went long on E/J

Price broke above the TL and both 1HR PPZ...so was looking for a pullback and entry long. Scrolled down the timeframes and the retest held so went long 2x1% positions @ 127.59 and 127.59...SL @ 127.30
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  • #86
  • Apr 14, 2010 4:29am Apr 14, 2010 4:29am
Went short C/J @ 93.59, SL @ 93.84 -2% @ risk...missed the touch trade off resistance but a pin bar formed to trading this instead.

Went long U/C @ 0.9980, [email protected] 2% @ risk. Price has gone down to previous low to form a double bottom which is also weekly PPz. A pin bar with divergence on 5min timeframe so took this, although it has hit the 1HRbar highs and retraced so looks like I missed the chance to take profit.
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  • #87
  • Apr 14, 2010 4:33am Apr 14, 2010 4:33am
Went long AU...price was @ a daily PPZ so scrolled down the time frames and taken a break out speculative trade. Long AU @ 0.9327. SL @ 0.9310, 1% @ risk.
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  • #88
  • Apr 14, 2010 4:41am Apr 14, 2010 4:41am
Long GU...breakout of triangle (and above bar highs) . Long @ 1.5439, SL@ 1.5410 - 1% @ risk.
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  • #89
  • Edited 4:54am Apr 14, 2010 4:43am | Edited 4:54am
excellent discipline and risk management. great technique, awesome results. truly inspirational. thankyou for sharing

Quoting lovejoy80
Went long AU...price was @ a daily PPZ Long AU @ 0.9327. SL @ 0.9310, 1% @ risk.
the PPZ you mention is M4. i sold the same level risking 1% with a 20 pip stop in the wake of disappointing home loans today. We are on the opposite side of this trade. good luck
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #90
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:04am Apr 14, 2010 5:04am
Watching my current trades very carefully...Gold needs to break 1160 for AU to continue up...AJ is approaching triple top too. Oil needs to pause and retrace for CAD to weaken...those CAD trades were counter trend so risky.

Looking to exit trades or move stop losses before US economic news release (Core CPI and retail sales) in 2.5 hours as price could move quite quickly...good figures and I would expect USD and JPY to go down due to increasing risk appetite (although we could see a spike up in USD first) and the opposite for bad figures.
  • #91
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:06am Apr 14, 2010 5:06am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
excellent discipline and risk management. great technique, awesome results. truly inspirational. thankyou for sharing


the PPZ you mention is M4. i sold the same level risking 1% with a 20 pip stop in the wake of disappointing home loans today. We are on the opposite side of this trade. good luck
Thanks, it helps me to share as I can analyse my trades after the fact...plus others can post their opinions which can only help me learn more.

What is M4, never heard of this before?

I'm not feeling good about the AU trades as gold is stalling @ PPZ and I expected a quick push up in EJ and AU but they are stalling...lack of buy orders maybe or maybe low volatility becasue people are waiting for US news.
  • #92
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:14am Apr 14, 2010 5:14am
Quoting jeurre
Hi, lovejoy80

the strategy works very well, I was doing backtesting to get a feel about it, one quick question, how do you avoid the range market as much as you can? what annoys me is the situation the range market gives too many false breaks. I think I will do some demo trading following your method. thank you for sharing your trades.

jeurre
I dont need to avoid range markets...when price is ranging it is obviously quite easy to ride the peaks and valleys etc...I'm not actually very good at this...I need to hold trades longer and add in more positions that I do, I've never caught a trend from beginning to end and reversed yet...that is one of my goals.

Yesterday was a choppy sideways day...I focus a lot on the major PPZ areas i.e. from the daily and weekly time frames and then go down lower...when you have a major PPZ with fibs, TL and price action this is a really good trade and can indicate the start of a trend or a major reversal.

There are days like yesterday when I trade to play some breaks and trend trades and price just chopped around all over the place, if you use proper risk management i.e. I used 1% mostly yesterday as most of the pairs are still deciding whether to go up and down (not at major PPz's either)...there is a lack of direction in most cases as risk sentiment is not at extremes...Greece is still a concern as the Euro is generally despite the loan agreement and the bond sale. Risk sentiment is a major driver of markets at the moment and there has not been much economic data either so far this week and there was not much data or news yesterday. It was only a nice Oil trade that made my day yesterday.

Recognising when price is trending and ranging is all part of getting screen time and experience and knowing where the major areas are that price is heading to or will reverse at.


I think a lot of fundamental traders are waiting for corporate results season to get underway to guage how well corporates are doing in US, also have UK general election and continuting Greece, PIIGS saga.
  • #93
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:16am Apr 14, 2010 5:16am
Quoting lovejoy80
Watching my current trades very carefully...Gold needs to break 1160 for AU to continue up...AJ is approaching triple top too. Oil needs to pause and retrace for CAD to weaken...those CAD trades were counter trend so risky.

Looking to exit trades or move stop losses before US economic news release (Core CPI and retail sales) in 2.5 hours as price could move quite quickly...good figures and I would expect USD and JPY to go down due to increasing risk appetite (although we could see a spike up in USD first) and the opposite for bad figures.
lol...should have waited for gold to break 1160 before going long AU...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #94
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:17am Apr 14, 2010 5:17am
Quoting lovejoy80

What is M4, never heard of this before?
the M4 pivot. Its the half way point between the R1 pivot (R for resistance) and the R2 pivot. If you still have no idea what I am talking about let me know - Im about to blow your mind
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #95
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:21am Apr 14, 2010 5:21am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
the M4 pivot. Its the half way point between the R1 pivot (R for resistance) and the R2 pivot. If you still have no idea what I am talking about let me know - Im about to blow your mind
I know about floor pivots i.e. pivot, S1, S2, R1 ,R2 etc...but actually dont know what they are in terms of how they are calculated...something to do with previous days high/low? Never heard of using the mid points of P-R1 etc...be glad to hear more about these...
  • #96
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:21am Apr 14, 2010 5:21am
I see, you are using more than one strategy to trade.

Quoting lovejoy80
I dont need to avoid range markets...when price is ranging it is obviously quite easy to ride the peaks and valleys etc...I'm not actually very good at this...I need to hold trades longer and add in more positions that I do, I've never caught a trend from beginning to end and reversed yet...that is one of my goals.

Yesterday was a choppy sideways day...I focus a lot on the major PPZ areas i.e. from the daily and weekly time frames and then go down lower...when you have a major PPZ with fibs, TL and price action this is a really good trade and...
  • #97
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:29am Apr 14, 2010 5:29am
Well, those trades took off...in the wrong direction!

Exited manually GU and EJ @ 1.5421 and 127.41 leaving UC and CJ in play as well as AU - if 1158 support on gold can hold then AU should be ok...watching closely though. Wasnt really happy with EJ and GU they should have taken off after breaking resistance but didnt so happy to cut these.

Got a pending order sell on EUR/CAD @ 1.3594...otherwsie waiting till we get near double/ triple tops on xxx/JPY ...if this is combined with poor USD data (and dow is at weekly PPZ and formed bearish 1H pin bar with divergence in last hour last night) we could see as big fall in JPY pairs
  • #98
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:32am Apr 14, 2010 5:32am
Quoting lovejoy80
I know about floor pivots i.e. pivot, S1, S2, R1 ,R2 etc..
its the same thing applied to FX - Ill get some resource material or website for you. in the meantime check this chart out from yesterdays trading. The pivot points are marked. It displays the effectiveness of these levels. remember these levels were in place before price went there
You can easily calculate the levels from previous OHLC data but nobody does that as there are indicators that do it all for you as you can see on my chart. There are weekly and monthly pivots and these are even more powerful. You use them exactly the same way you do fibs, as a leading indicator. You will love them, They will give more significant levels to find confluence with. Nothing like a pivot plus fib line up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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BTC Return This Year: na
  • #99
  • Edited 5:59am Apr 14, 2010 5:44am | Edited 5:59am
Sold Eur / AUd and EUr / CAD on break of support...notice if I still had my EUr / AUd short in play from yesterday this would be an additional position...but I got inpatient and took profit...must get better at this.

E/A short @ 1.4605, SL@ 1.4722 - 2%
E/C short @ 1.3596, SL@ 1.3660 - 2%

(thanks Nasir for posting these potential trades...I would have missed them!)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: ecad.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #100
  • Apr 14, 2010 5:48am Apr 14, 2010 5:48am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
its the same thing applied to FX - Ill get some resource material or website for you. in the meantime check this chart out from yesterdays trading. The pivot points are marked. It displays the effectiveness of these levels. remember these levels were in place before price went there
You can easily calculate the levels from previous OHLC data but nobody does that as there are indicators that do it all for you as you can see on my chart. There are weekly and monthly pivots and these are even more powerful. You use them exactly the same way you do...
Thanks...so S1 is daily support 1 and thus M2 is halfway between daily pivot and S1 and M1 halfway between S1 and S2?

Do these work on some pairs more than others...is the 5min time frame the optimum one?
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