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Silent Service Method

  • #7,961
  • Apr 12, 2010 5:23am Apr 12, 2010 5:23am
So if it closes like that is that a buy signal or too messy?
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Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #7,962
  • Apr 12, 2010 5:28am Apr 12, 2010 5:28am
Ok, next time I promise to think before posting! 93.8 may not be a round number but you only have to zoom the daily chart out a bit to see it's definitely support/resistance. Let's not trade into that shall we?
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Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #7,963
  • Apr 12, 2010 5:53am Apr 12, 2010 5:53am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Ok, next time I promise to think before posting! 93.8 may not be a round number but you only have to zoom the daily chart out a bit to see it's definitely support/resistance. Let's not trade into that shall we?
Unfortunately not all of us possess your wisdom. I placed two trades last night shortly after the market opened. To be honest I feel that both trades were impulsive and reckless, and I am luckily that they both have headed in the right direction. Although the setups were not horrible I can honestly say that the decision to trade was based on the fear of missing the move, rather than sound PA analysis.

I have already moved S/L to BE on both to minimize the potential for a loss.
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  • #7,964
  • Apr 12, 2010 6:24am Apr 12, 2010 6:24am
Well with the audusd you could get away with it if you say to yourself that gaps tend to fill...

And usdjpy looks like it's going to go up but I just want a clear signal rather than this rangy type price action.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #7,965
  • Apr 12, 2010 7:21am Apr 12, 2010 7:21am
Quoting Arfer Daily
And usdjpy looks like it's going to go up but I just want a clear signal rather than this rangy type price action.
Well get in and PUSH. I could use some help.

  • #7,966
  • Apr 12, 2010 7:22am Apr 12, 2010 7:22am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Ok, next time I promise to think before posting! 93.8 may not be a round number but you only have to zoom the daily chart out a bit to see it's definitely support/resistance. Let's not trade into that shall we?

For me it's all about whether or not we stay north of the massive down trend line. As long as we do - we are changing the trend. It might be messy, these things normally are, but in the end it should pay off....
  • #7,967
  • Apr 12, 2010 7:23am Apr 12, 2010 7:23am
Quoting clockwork71
Well get in and PUSH. I could use some help.

Are you long CW? If so do you mind explaining your entry?
  • #7,968
  • Apr 12, 2010 7:52am Apr 12, 2010 7:52am
Quoting jharvey407
Are you long CW? If so do you mind explaining your entry?
Here is the chart.
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  • #7,969
  • Apr 12, 2010 7:59am Apr 12, 2010 7:59am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Having had time to look through this a bit more I've discovered that it is very difficult to trade futures using the ss method because you only get data going back to the start of the contract which can be as little as 3 or 4 months, not enough time to determine significant support and resistance on a weekly chart.

The gold and silver can be traded ok but none of the futures. I looked at the charts on IG Index and they give you even less data in most instances.

So, I'm now looking for a metatrader broker who offers a good range of cfds but NOT...
Actually, you can do it....but what you need is the continuous contract chart. It's basically the "CASH" chart of futures. They can be found at barchart.com

You have to figure out your s/r lines, and transpose them on the recent month's chart. It still holds true in the end.

Good question though. I am glad you mentioned it, as I didn't even think about bringing it up.
  • #7,970
  • Apr 12, 2010 8:22am Apr 12, 2010 8:22am
Quoting clockwork71
Well get in and PUSH. I could use some help.

LOL! Not sure my position size is up to the job
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #7,971
  • Apr 12, 2010 8:28am Apr 12, 2010 8:28am
Quoting clockwork71
Actually, you can do it....but what you need is the continuous contract chart. It's basically the "CASH" chart of futures. They can be found at barchart.com

You have to figure out your s/r lines, and transpose them on the recent month's chart. It still holds true in the end.

Good question though. I am glad you mentioned it, as I didn't even think about bringing it up.
Great, thanks, I'll take a look.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #7,972
  • Edited 9:35am Apr 12, 2010 8:28am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting clockwork71
Here is the chart.
Thanks, I feel better about my decision to go long.

I have moved my stop to BE. If I get taken out by my close stop I may re-enter on a break of the daily PIN.
  • #7,973
  • Apr 12, 2010 9:35am Apr 12, 2010 9:35am
Quoting Arfer Daily
LOL! Not sure my position size is up to the job
Hey man -

It could be your micro lot that pushes it over the edge!
  • #7,974
  • Apr 12, 2010 9:53am Apr 12, 2010 9:53am
Quoting clockwork71
Here is the chart.

I thought that you typically waited for the retest and break on a breakout? Are you entering earlier than you usually do because you really like this set up, or did I misinterpret your method?

-Dave
  • #7,975
  • Apr 12, 2010 10:06am Apr 12, 2010 10:06am
Quoting TraderDavo
I thought that you typically waited for the retest and break on a breakout? Are you entering earlier than you usually do because you really like this set up, or did I misinterpret your method?

-Dave
No. Consider the trend line break AND the break above 93 as both being breakouts. I am actually playing the retest of said 93.....

if that fails, I will try the retest of the weekly trend line.

I hope that made sense.
  • #7,976
  • Apr 12, 2010 10:11am Apr 12, 2010 10:11am
Well by the look of it I just put my 0.01 in at a better price than you got on your trade so it can't be bad!

My stop loss is below 92 as that seems to be the next support, is that about right?
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #7,977
  • Apr 12, 2010 10:53am Apr 12, 2010 10:53am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Well by the look of it I just put my 0.01 in at a better price than you got on your trade so it can't be bad!

My stop loss is below 92 as that seems to be the next support, is that about right?

Yeah I suppose. Truthfully - My feelings about this pair don't change until we go back under this line on my chart.....although we could go sideways for a while.
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  • #7,978
  • Apr 12, 2010 11:04am Apr 12, 2010 11:04am
As I posted before I took a long on USDJPY more on impulse than analysis. I moved my stop to BE as a precaution, and I got stopped out at 0. I think this is a good result for a poorly executed trade.

I revisited my previous analysis of the pair and came up with the following entry strategy.

The pair broke and held above resistance at 93.00 and printed a PIN bar on the daily chart (red arrow). The next day the price broke the high of the pin bar, but retraced and closed down, although still above 93.00 (blue arrow). I could use the break of the PIN bar's high to justify a long position right now, at a better price than the break of the PIN, but I don't like the way the 4h chart is shaping up.

So I have placed a buy stop 10 pips above the high of the PIN bar. Which is also 1 pip above todays high. I have placed the stoploss 10 pips below the low of the PIN bar, which should give the market a little room to breathe.

At this point if the price goes up I am in at the break of the PIN and a new high for today. If the price goes down, I'll reevaluate.

I placed the buy stop because I may have to leave the office and do some field work if the rain stops.
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  • #7,979
  • Apr 12, 2010 2:03pm Apr 12, 2010 2:03pm
I would like to see one signal on points 1 or 2...

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I appreciate all your comments

sorry my english!
  • #7,980
  • Apr 12, 2010 2:23pm Apr 12, 2010 2:23pm
Was watching this. We have a break of the 93 mark. Not sure if this is going to be a breakout/retest and Long position or if we could see the emergence of a solid pin bar. You can see that it also is a break of a year long slightly downward trend, which makes me think it is a continuation of the yearS long upward trend.

Time and price action will tell us!

http://i43.tinypic.com/2exrqk9.gif
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