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Attachments: Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

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  • Post #220,581
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  • Apr 9, 2010 4:42pm Apr 9, 2010 4:42pm
  •  karimfx
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: golan cu bani | 291 Posts
Quoting karimfx
Disliked
LET'S WATCH DAILY CHART...

sma4 it is at 142.90 and looks like could breaks from up to down sma9 ( for this happen it is necessary today's close to be under 142.90 )

if we take this case, the fractal it is at 134.60 area and the SAR dot at 144.90

so IF TODAY'S CLOSE WILL BE UNDER 142.90, WILL HAVE AN UNCONFIRMED OPENED POSITION @142.90 WITH SL 144.90 AND TP 134.60
TO CONFIRM, SMA4 NEEDS TO GO UNDER SMA18 ( NOW AT 140.30 AREA )

ALSO, IT CAN BE SEEN A BEARISH DIVERGENCE ON DAILY CHART

[b]IN THIS CASE, IF TODAY'S CLOSE UNDER 142.90,...
Ignored

monthly: CONFIRMED TREND @149.20 WITH SL 162 AND TP 120
weekly: UNCONFIRMED CALL @138.90 WITH SL 132.50 AND TP 151 ( confirmation will be when sma4 ( now at 140 ) go over sma18 ( now at 143 )
daily: if today close under 142.90, UNCONFIRMED CALL @142.90 SL 144.90 TP 134.60 ( confirmation if sma4 ( now at 142.90 ) go under sma18 ( now at 140.30 )

so let's watch today's close for unconfirmed daily call
let's watch next week's first 3 days for confirmation of the daily call
let's watch next 1-2 weeks for confirmation of the weekly still unconfirmed call

pip it!!
LOL
 
 
  • Post #220,582
  • Quote
  • Edited at 2:47am Apr 10, 2010 1:01am | Edited at 2:47am
  •  Raza
  • Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Money never sleeps | 5,878 Posts
Quoting karimfx
Disliked
monthly: CONFIRMED TREND @149.20 WITH SL 162 AND TP 120
weekly: UNCONFIRMED CALL @138.90 WITH SL 132.50 AND TP 151 ( confirmation will be when sma4 ( now at 140 ) go over sma18 ( now at 143 )
daily: if today close under 142.90, UNCONFIRMED CALL @142.90 SL 144.90 TP 134.60 ( confirmation if sma4 ( now at 142.90 ) go under sma18 ( now at 140.30 )

so let's watch today's close for unconfirmed daily call
let's watch next week's first 3 days for confirmation of the daily call
let's watch next 1-2 weeks for confirmation of the weekly still unconfirmed...
Ignored
You have got some Crazy Stop Lossess.... Bro

why even Bother with STOP LOSS...just have Limit Profits...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
 
 
  • Post #220,583
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  • Apr 10, 2010 8:44am Apr 10, 2010 8:44am
  •  karimfx
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: golan cu bani | 291 Posts
Quoting Raza
Disliked
You have got some Crazy Stop Lossess.... Bro

why even Bother with STOP LOSS...just have Limit Profits...
Ignored
the calls are not for intraDAY trading, just for medium & long term

but the main advantage is that those calls on monthly, weekly and daily offers you very important s / r levels

those SL are for clear trend inverse, but after opening a position i do not maintain SL, i am moving SL after SAR dots

but, this strategy can also be use for intraday trading and i explain how..

need to use daily, 4H and 1H charts.. for example, a good call on 1H chart will give you for sure 50pips from the confirmation point ( which is where sma4 breaks sma18, after sma4 broked sma9 )

try to use this strategy for 2 weeks and you'll see very good results
LOL
 
 
  • Post #220,584
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  • Apr 10, 2010 5:36pm Apr 10, 2010 5:36pm
  •  cohiba pips
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 1,839 Posts
and what I'll trade - unfortunately I had to close my shorts from 144.70 . 50 thursday night after the bounce, even though im very happy this is what i have in play for sunday/monday

the charts say it all but price action speaks louder even though the oscillators say different you have to go with pa notice also chart not attached is the daily giving us indecision but thats obvious when you look at uj and cable these are driven by gold so we need to see what currency has the most strength or the most weakness ( big difference ) which in my opinion will be cable deriving from the gold charts in other words cable will travel further than uj drop - so i say buy in the 142 region low if we get there - who knows lets watch the price action all we be told by 11ish gmt monday morning

when ny closes another story will be told giving us an idea of what the market wants to do

good luck my friends
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  • Post #220,585
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  • Apr 10, 2010 8:40pm Apr 10, 2010 8:40pm
  •  cohiba pips
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 1,839 Posts
after talking to a good friend - what if we gap up on sunday then we close the gap as normal we will be building the right shoulder here in this area and price wont go that much lower anyway we will know monday night if the pattern is valid or not

be good and remember

Inserted Video
 
 
  • Post #220,586
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  • Apr 10, 2010 8:59pm Apr 10, 2010 8:59pm
  •  pkimnyc
  • Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Sniper | 14,756 Posts
Quoting cohiba pips
Disliked
after talking to a good friend - what if we gap up on sunday then we close the gap as normal we will be building the right shoulder here in this area and price wont go that much lower anyway we will know monday night if the pattern is valid or not

be good and remember

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn481...eature=related
Ignored
lol. thanks for the video.
 
 
  • Post #220,587
  • Quote
  • Apr 10, 2010 10:26pm Apr 10, 2010 10:26pm
  •  Raza
  • Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Money never sleeps | 5,878 Posts
Quoting karimfx
Disliked
the calls are not for intraDAY trading, just for medium & long term

but the main advantage is that those calls on monthly, weekly and daily offers you very important s / r levels

those SL are for clear trend inverse, but after opening a position i do not maintain SL, i am moving SL after SAR dots

but, this strategy can also be use for intraday trading and i explain how..

need to use daily, 4H and 1H charts.. for example, a good call on 1H chart will give you for sure 50pips from the confirmation point ( which is where sma4 breaks sma18,...
Ignored
Thanks for putting the Time in to explain your strategy in last 3 Post...

Will have to try Demo those MAs....
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
 
 
  • Post #220,588
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  • Apr 10, 2010 10:50pm Apr 10, 2010 10:50pm
  •  vincy balboa
  • Joined Aug 2009 | Status: THE GREAT LEGEND | 2,084 Posts
Quoting naatha
Disliked
green circle
Ignored
um , en

wrong I would say , probability You might forgot If i am not Your IMPULISVE 5th wave Subdivision thats why you Just Putted The DE on Just Following ABC ..

How thats Possible Okay Let Assume You have ur 4 wave Subdivision Like you mention your Chart A B C .. so thats it .

But why you just Taking ur TG on DE and showing the 5th wave, I bet you should think That isn't A Proper TRIANGLE . so pls think I bet you should Triple Complex . Okay My good man or women Naatha
DRAGON-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!
 
 
  • Post #220,589
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  • Edited at 11:44pm Apr 10, 2010 11:25pm | Edited at 11:44pm
  •  Raza
  • Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Money never sleeps | 5,878 Posts
Quoting vincy balboa
Disliked
um , en

wrong I would say , probability You might forgot If i am not Your IMPULISVE 5th wave Subdivision thats why you Just Putted The DE on Just Following ABC ..

How thats Possible Okay Let Assume You have ur 4 wave Subdivision Like you mention your Chart A B C .. so thats it .

But why you just Taking ur TG on DE and showing the 5th wave, I bet you should think That isn't A Proper TRIANGLE . so pls think I bet you should Triple Complex . Okay My good man or women Naatha
Ignored
Vincy...LOL... Poor Naatha...

That was My chart...I HAD POSTED THAT ON YOUR THREAD TOO LAST THURSDAY OR SO...

I also said it can turn into XX correction... I hate double or Tripple Corrections..

Could you provide alternate or correct Scenario...Please...1 HR..or 4 Hr.. G/J.

Thanks..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
 
 
  • Post #220,590
  • Quote
  • Apr 11, 2010 4:27am Apr 11, 2010 4:27am
  •  vincy balboa
  • Joined Aug 2009 | Status: THE GREAT LEGEND | 2,084 Posts
Quoting Raza
Disliked
Vincy...LOL... Poor Naatha...

That was My chart...I HAD POSTED THAT ON YOUR THREAD TOO LAST THURSDAY OR SO...

I also said it can turn into XX correction... I hate double or Tripple Corrections..

Could you provide alternate or correct Scenario...Please...1 HR..or 4 Hr.. G/J.

Thanks..
Ignored
oh So sorry for that as well To Naatha


okay And I LOVEEEEEEEEEEEEE DOUBLE TRIPLE. that why My Mind Only Love to see so

okay Here you can see My Update

zz Subdivide accepted PROPERLY 100%
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DRAGON-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!
 
 
  • Post #220,591
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:53pm Apr 11, 2010 4:29am | Edited at 4:53pm
  •  jckm
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 2,130 Posts
Chart for opening trading eur/jpy 12. apr 2010 - target down to 124,00 (pennant formation)
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Twitter: Forexlivetrade - Buy: AFFI.CPH ISIN: DK0015966592 - target 12 DKK
 
 
  • Post #220,592
  • Quote
  • Apr 11, 2010 2:29pm Apr 11, 2010 2:29pm
  •  ukdaytrader
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Member | 2,753 Posts
OK, been thinking this weekend about where we go from here. Friday's PA really threw a curveball into the mix and any weak shorts will be sweating now.

I'm looking at it like this:
Last week's downmoves before the rally from 141, looked pretty strong, (and real), to me. BUT, the huge rise we had witnessed before that looked strong too, so I have to revert to my analysis rather than second guess what the large players do.

Chart 1, 4hr GY. I was banging on about the bearish divergence last week that needed to play out. My own personal target was 141, but in reality the play-out area was a bit lower than that, and most importantly, was not hit. This is still in play IMO. There is also a wider divergence with a play-out area of 137-138, but first things first.

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Chart 2, Daily ES. ES is typically closely correlated to the Yen carries and it's moves mirror that of GY, AY and UY. We have seen a major, (and rapid), run up which has left us with strong bearish divergence from 1112. I believe this has to play out too if we are to see a change of trend.

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Both these charts together tell me we need to see a drop before any more significant upside. If we look at a Daily chart and ignore the last candle, we would still be pretty strongly bearish. Friday's candle has confused matters, so i'm staying flexible, but contrary to most, I remain bearish..... for now.
 
 
  • Post #220,593
  • Quote
  • Apr 11, 2010 2:50pm Apr 11, 2010 2:50pm
  •  karimfx
  • | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: golan cu bani | 291 Posts
Quoting ukdaytrader
Disliked
OK, been thinking this weekend about where we go from here. Friday's PA really threw a curveball into the mix and any weak shorts will be sweating now.

I'm looking at it like this:
Last week's downmoves before the rally from 141, looked pretty strong, (and real), to me. BUT, the huge rise we had witnessed before that looked strong too, so I have to revert to my analysis rather than second guess what the large players do.

Chart 1, 4hr GY. I was banging on about the bearish divergence last week that needed to play out. My own personal target...
Ignored
AGREED

too many bearish divergences not played out..

like i said friday....
"monthly: CONFIRMED TREND @149.20 WITH SL 162 AND TP 120
weekly: UNCONFIRMED CALL @138.90 WITH SL 132.50 AND TP 151 ( confirmation will be when sma4 ( now at 140 ) go over sma18 ( now at 143 )
daily: if today close under 142.90, UNCONFIRMED CALL @142.90 SL 144.90 TP 134.60 ( confirmation if sma4 ( now at 142.90 ) go under sma18 ( now at 140.30 )

so let's watch today's close for unconfirmed daily call
let's watch next week's first 3 days for confirmation of the daily call
let's watch next 1-2 weeks for confirmation of the weekly still unconfirmed call"

now, friday close was at 143.20, which still not confirmed daily call, but also that call wasn't unconfirmed
so, now we need to see monday's close to confirm or not my daily call..

I'M BEARISH TOO ON GJ, but i'll watch closely/carrefully daily close..

pip it!!
LOL
 
 
  • Post #220,594
  • Quote
  • Apr 11, 2010 3:38pm Apr 11, 2010 3:38pm
  •  cohiba pips
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 1,839 Posts
[quote=ukdaytrader;3627656]OK, been thinking this weekend about where we go from here. Friday's PA really threw a curveball into the mix and any weak shorts will be sweating now.

lol Not a bad way off looking at things throw into the mix this gap up we are going to get makes me even more confused - in situations like this its probably best to stand aside miss a few pips and see what mondays daily candle gives us i know i know thats boring but price is being protected it seems - or just bought when all our charts are screaming 138 etc have we been here before
 
 
  • Post #220,595
  • Quote
  • Apr 11, 2010 9:45pm Apr 11, 2010 9:45pm
  •  next-move
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Member | 83 Posts
Interesting observations:

1) Gap is still open from 143.19 (at least on my platform).

2) Geppy is not making a new high vs. EUR/JPY - makes sense.

3) Big gap for EUR/JPY (on the order oof 100 pips).

Gaps will need to be closed (either soon or in one week or so) - that is just the way it works. So, when EUR/JPY falls, Geppy will possibly fall harder.

NM
 
 
  • Post #220,596
  • Quote
  • Apr 11, 2010 10:37pm Apr 11, 2010 10:37pm
  •  PipinStein
  • | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Witness Protection | 132 Posts
Quoting JhonMonsalve
Disliked
I have an eye on this trade for next week.

Attachment 454895
Ignored
A good start to the week, covered some of mine
Without a trade plan, say bye bye to your account & hello to frustration.
 
 
  • Post #220,597
  • Quote
  • Apr 11, 2010 10:49pm Apr 11, 2010 10:49pm
  •  pkimnyc
  • Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Sniper | 14,756 Posts
Quoting next-move
Disliked
Interesting observations:

1) Gap is still open from 143.19 (at least on my platform).

2) Geppy is not making a new high vs. EUR/JPY - makes sense.

3) Big gap for EUR/JPY (on the order oof 100 pips).

Gaps will need to be closed (either soon or in one week or so) - that is just the way it works. So, when EUR/JPY falls, Geppy will possibly fall harder.

NM
Ignored
gaps sometimes don't get filled right away.
 
 
  • Post #220,598
  • Quote
  • Apr 11, 2010 11:02pm Apr 11, 2010 11:02pm
  •  next-move
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Member | 83 Posts
I agree. My 'right away' is within 24 hours. Otherwise, it could certainly take a few weeks - if not months. From what I can tell, it is usually filled within 24 hours.

Has anyone done a thorough analysis?

The gap from 140.20 - 139.65 that pushed us down a few weeks ago lasted about two weeks.

So, statistically, we are likely to fill within a day or two.

It is so quiet around here - either the active voices are getting a little shut-eye for the London session or everyone is nervous (or nobody cares).

NM
 
 
  • Post #220,599
  • Quote
  • Apr 11, 2010 11:11pm Apr 11, 2010 11:11pm
  •  pkimnyc
  • Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Sniper | 14,756 Posts
Quoting next-move
Disliked
I agree. My 'right away' is within 24 hours. Otherwise, it could certainly take a few weeks - if not months. From what I can tell, it is usually filled within 24 hours.

Has anyone done a thorough analysis?

The gap from 140.20 - 139.65 that pushed us down a few weeks ago lasted about two weeks.

So, statistically, we are likely to fill within a day or two.

It is so quiet around here - either the active voices are getting a little shut-eye for the London session or everyone is nervous (or nobody cares).

NM
Ignored
short term analysis was bullish. not sure if it was worth mentioning.
whether we fill the gap or not, will have to wait for monday to pass.
looks kind of doubtful, but anything can happen.
 
 
  • Post #220,600
  • Quote
  • Apr 11, 2010 11:21pm Apr 11, 2010 11:21pm
  •  next-move
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Member | 83 Posts
Short term bullish (i.e. within next 24 hours) - yes, most definitely.

Inverse head-and-shoulders is somewhat carved out, although there could be a better right shoulder - perhaps a spike down in the 142.50 region.

However, a lot of resistance above:

1) we are at the top of a rising trendline

2) 200 SMA Daily is at 145 (which is a nice bullish trade if it were to work)

3) Geppy is somewhat sluggish - a pop would fix that.

4) There is the issue of 'unfinished business' around 140 or so.

5) There is talk of the US weakening, which may neutralize Geppy (?).

The wildcard may be the US earnings season, which begins tomorrow. A short squeeze could hold it where it is until the air is cleared late Monday in the US.

The game changer would be 145 cleared for a day or two.

NM

Quoting pkimnyc
Disliked
short term analysis was bullish. not sure if it was worth mentioning.
whether we fill the gap or not, will have to wait for monday to pass.
looks kind of doubtful, but anything can happen.
Ignored
 
 
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