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Silent Service Method

  • #7,921
  • Apr 10, 2010 8:11am Apr 10, 2010 8:11am
Quoting supermatt
i just have changed my charts to the white background black candles and have re drawn all major lines, it seems to be alot more clearer, ive always had a black background, dont know why, it could be good for a change, see what happens but i did see a few of you guys using white backgrounds.

also i have been using the spaced lines indicator that plots the major round numbers but i have removed that and just focused on key areas from the past. just 1 or 2 lines here or there and have observed that those areas are probably more important than a major...
This brings up a good point. The less lines, the better off you can be. There is a trade off though: less trades. But the trades you get into, tend to last longer, and pay more.

Oh, and then there's that whole less stress thing too!
  • #7,922
  • Apr 10, 2010 11:20am Apr 10, 2010 11:20am
To my Polish friends: My thoughts are with you.
  • #7,923
  • Apr 10, 2010 11:38am Apr 10, 2010 11:38am
I just got Camtasia 7, and am trying out some things. Here is the result of a trial run with some captions. It is about some charts I like right now.....

http://thetraderguy.com/april102010.mp4

If you don't want to watch it in the browser, just right click and "save as."
  • #7,924
  • Apr 10, 2010 2:05pm Apr 10, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting clockwork71
I just got Camtasia 7, and am trying out some things. Here is the result of a trial run with some captions. It is about some charts I like right now.....

http://thetraderguy.com/april102010.mp4

If you don't want to watch it in the browser, just right click and "save as."
Really good vid Chris, thanks! I see now what you mean about not messing about with little trades here or there on eurgbp, much easier to wait for the big one and ride it all the way.

Is a close below that triangle enough for an entry or would you wait for a pullback to the trendline and a break of the original breakout candle/bar?
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #7,925
  • Apr 10, 2010 2:36pm Apr 10, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting clockwork71
I just got Camtasia 7, and am trying out some things. Here is the result of a trial run with some captions. It is about some charts I like right now.....

http://thetraderguy.com/april102010.mp4

If you don't want to watch it in the browser, just right click and "save as."
Nice video and I quite agree with your thoughts on these. Especially USDJPY is something I'm going to have a close look at during my weekend fx analysis, I've been waiting for it to retest the breakout but I thought it was going to reach 92-ish before bouncing.
I exited my EURGBP short this Friday but with the plan of looking for a reentry again when opportunity presents itself.
  • #7,926
  • Apr 10, 2010 2:52pm Apr 10, 2010 2:52pm
Nice vid, Clock..

I've been reading a book titled "Enhancing Trader Performance" ~ B. Steenbarger and I don't know how y'all could keep it a secret this long! So this line from the book just jumped out at me and I had to post what he says:

"My review of research conducted with expert performers leads me to advance an idea that will not seem obvious at first blush: The path to competence for someone who eventually develops expertise is different from the path for those who remain competent nonexperts. Most traders - and those who work with traders as mentors - fail to recognize this vital distinction."

This guy doesn't start with charts, psychology, business plans and so much of what's marketed and branded into the newbie and veterans alike in this industry. He goes on to write, "I have a very simple definition of competence in trading and an equally simple definition of expertise.

* A competent trader is one who consistently covers his or her trading costs.

* An expert trader is one who makes a consistent and acceptable living from his or her trading."

He focuses on one's natural, inborn, fundamental passion and strength - even if that turns-out to be in a venue altogether removed from being a trader. It's about discovering your niche instead of forcing yourself to jump ahead to the final steps of the developmental process with say "entries, exits, reading order flow, limiting losses, and mastering emotions." He continues, "Here's an important performance principle. Please make note. Whatever your distinctive abilities might be, you are already engaging in them."

There's so much more in this book; every page is a gem and wealth of refreshment if you ask me. "The implications are profound: To develop expertise as a trader, the imposition of discipline and deliberative practice is not the first step to be taken. The first step - and the one so often forgotten by new traders - is to simply have fun." (I'm only on page 50!) Guess I'm preaching to the choir!

He reports that Benjamin Bloom, Ph.D. of the University of Chicago and his colleagues coordinated an experiment in the 80's called the Development of Talent Research Project and found three factors that distinguish high-level performance across the various fields they studied:

1. Strong interest and emotional commitment to a particular field
2. Desire to reach a high level of attainment in that field
3. Willingness to put in the significant time and effort required for this high-level achievement

Good weekend y'all!
  • #7,927
  • Apr 10, 2010 3:59pm Apr 10, 2010 3:59pm
deutsche postbank on weekly and daily. if it breaks it may not look back...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: dpbd.png Size: 18 KB
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #7,928
  • Apr 10, 2010 4:13pm Apr 10, 2010 4:13pm
nvidia may go back to the upper trendline...
last candle indicates that supply is decreasing and demand is returning.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nvda.png Size: 17 KB
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #7,929
  • Edited 8:19pm Apr 10, 2010 8:00pm | Edited 8:19pm
Quoting clockwork71
To my Polish friends: My thoughts are with you.
Yeah, may their souls rest in peace.

*We might see some crazy movements in USD/PLN.

Another thing is Poland is an important and one of the biggest members of the European Union.
  • #7,930
  • Apr 10, 2010 10:43pm Apr 10, 2010 10:43pm
Quoting aserbfx
deutsche postbank on weekly and daily. if it breaks it may not look back...

I like this chart. A good one to watch no doubt.
  • #7,931
  • Apr 10, 2010 10:45pm Apr 10, 2010 10:45pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Really good vid Chris, thanks! I see now what you mean about not messing about with little trades here or there on eurgbp, much easier to wait for the big one and ride it all the way.

Is a close below that triangle enough for an entry or would you wait for a pullback to the trendline and a break of the original breakout candle/bar?
Truthfully, I think a close below is good enough....on a set up like this....it's just so obvious, I am willing to "be a little more risky".
  • #7,932
  • Apr 10, 2010 10:48pm Apr 10, 2010 10:48pm
Quoting Soca
Nice vid, Clock..

I've been reading a book titled "Enhancing Trader Performance" ~ B. Steenbarger and I don't know how y'all could keep it a secret this long! So this line from the book just jumped out at me and I had to post what he says:

[font=System][color=RoyalBlue]"My review of research conducted with expert performers leads me to advance an idea that will not seem obvious at first blush: The path to competence for someone who eventually develops expertise is different from the path for those who remain competent nonexperts. Most...

I would add the #4....which you already touched on.....

4) To be able to enjoy your "work". When work is something you enjoy, it no longer is work. It is effortless, and becomes something you look forward to. This allows one to trade without fear.

Steenbarger's work is really good.
  • #7,933
  • Edited 5:30am Apr 11, 2010 4:50am | Edited 5:30am
Quoting clockwork71
I just got Camtasia 7, and am trying out some things. Here is the result of a trial run with some captions. It is about some charts I like right now.....
Yeah, a #4 point seems to be what that book is a sojourn about; Steenbarger really gets into the passion and strength behind finding one's niche by starting out with just having fun on-the-road to mastery - in any field of endeavor. Fortunately his focus is on trading in that book; I'll be devouring all his books from now on and most importantly redefining what success means to me via immersing myself in whatever resonates.

And while a break in that three-year down TL is cool, on up to a swing handle being even cooler, to make it even cooler is that it's at a major confluence zone w/a downward channel from way back. (It's my biggest reason to remain technically bearish on the uSD/jPY from a long-term perspective.) *See attached chart.

Fundamentally, one thing Japan has going for it is a massive surplus in foreign currency reserves and a consistently positive GDP - though they too are in a recession - unemployment remains below 6%. We'll see how this plays out but I wouldn't be surprised to see them begin to flex their real financial power once the U.S. economic power begins to resurrect from the hips...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uSD_jPY_Monthly_.png Size: 53 KB
  • #7,934
  • Apr 11, 2010 9:03am Apr 11, 2010 9:03am
here's my new link to facebook......still working on profile, etc.

http://www.facebook.com/ForexFantasies
  • #7,935
  • Apr 11, 2010 9:12am Apr 11, 2010 9:12am
The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, made a "surprise" visit to Beijing last week pleading the Chinese to revalue the Yuan. Gold prices sharply climbed that day...

China is the world's largest holder of USD reserves. If they begin to seriously offload those reserves, in other words, transfer their wealth to other markets; what happens to the dollar? And, consequently, to Gold?

I think we saw but a glimpse of the overall move coming in Gold on Friday. It's the hedge of choice; so is Oil. Stocks wouldn't necessarily fall in face value but the base currency (USD) would fundamentally weaken. Bond yields would rise due to an influx of floating Government debt, with less able to afford the premium, not only because of a weaker dollar but a depressive overload on the GDP, or leverage-to-capital. Not to mention the already tenuous State and Municipal bonds teetering on the brink of collapse, including the City of L.A. comptroller saying it's probably going bankrupt sometime this week...

Yet all this would be fairly nominal in a stable economic milieu. However, in this market, smart money goes to Gold and Blue-Chip stocks. So, "the private sector" again, wins. (That's you, me and entrepre...)

This is currency devaluation at its best and coming to join the fun is Greece, proposing a bond sale to the U.S. this week! Default to my face or on the sly; no need to patronize by saying there is no debt too large we can't just inflate away, since monetizing the debt would be too expensive and wouldn't look good for business. Now the USD is well on its way to losing its reserve currency status. I'm just going to enjoy the ride as best I can, this week and beyond.

Excuse me, Clock, just had to informally rant. Cheers!
  • #7,936
  • Apr 11, 2010 9:36am Apr 11, 2010 9:36am
Quoting supermatt
i just have changed my charts to the white background black candles and have re drawn all major lines, it seems to be alot more clearer, I've always had a black background, dont know why, it could be good for a change, see what happens but i did see a few of you guys using white backgrounds.
I just did the same thing. I am trying to create charts that are simple and easy to read for quick analysis. I also plan on printing charts for future reference, and black on white seems the way to go.

*****

I have two monitors. On one I show the WK and the other I show D or 4H, or toggle between the two time frames. To avoid having to redraw all of my lines, on each time frame, each time I update a chart I have developed a simple technique for moving lines, rectangles, etc. from one chart to another on MT4. I have created a template named 'transfer'. I'll update the weekly chart, adding or subtracting lines and notes. Then I'll save the chart template as 'transfer' and simply apply it to the other chart of the same currency.

This idea was born of the task of going through all of the my brokers (IBFX) pairs and practicing identifying support and resistance.

If someone has developed a more elegant way of transferring lines and marks in MT4 I would like to hear it.
  • #7,937
  • Apr 11, 2010 10:15am Apr 11, 2010 10:15am
Quoting Soca
And while a break in that three-year down TL is cool, on up to a swing handle being even cooler, to make it even cooler is that it's at a major confluence zone w/a downward channel from way back. (It's my biggest reason to remain technically bearish on the uSD/jPY from a long-term perspective.) *See attached chart.
Soca,

I don't completely disagree with what you have posted, but I wanted to post my longterm JPY chart for comparison. I realize the TA is a subjective endeavor, so here is my interpretation of the longterm JPY trend. I see a lot of potential for upside, especially to the 101 area.

Your trend line is in blue, mine are in red.

Comments from all posters welcome please.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy m.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #7,938
  • Apr 11, 2010 10:53am Apr 11, 2010 10:53am
U might also want to checkout Walmart............Trend is up, 55 RN and acting as Support, PB in trend direction and IB Fakey...........cheers.........good for long................

Quoting aserbfx
nvidia may go back to the upper trendline...
last candle indicates that supply is decreasing and demand is returning.
  • #7,939
  • Apr 11, 2010 12:42pm Apr 11, 2010 12:42pm
http://i42.tinypic.com/5dov7n.png
  • #7,940
  • Apr 11, 2010 1:42pm Apr 11, 2010 1:42pm
Quoting clockwork71
To my Polish friends: My thoughts are with you.
We are here and we feel emptiness and pain. All the people can't believe what has happened.

Thank you for being so warm and sensitive person. You are trully a great person, not only a trader.

Regards,

Coobin
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