My path to financial freedom

If EU can get back up to 475 area again...

Tempted by gold long too again...

For some reason I didnt pull the trigger on a UJ short at fib, ppz and TL confluence earler...account could have definelty been nearer 100% gain if I'd not cut some winners short and not missed some opportunities

A bit volatile this afternoon...friday and all, and Dow near 11000 could be fireworks if it gets there if it rebounds hard JPy will strengthen if it sails through USd and JPY crosses will rise hard...i'll probably just keep out and watch from the sidelines this afternoon.

Bought gold...self explanatory as to why.

Pending orders short on EU, might add a position on GU if we get higher and maybe AU...not that keen on JPY pairs at the momentbut short EJ 126.08 looks the most appealing to me...if dow is near 11k at the same time then I might load up.

Gold long @ 1153.40 SL @ 1151.50 TP again @ 1160.50 - 3% @ risk

Short AU @ 0.9316. SL @ 0.9405 - 2%

Now they are the sort of trades I like Gold shot up...took off the TP and took profit manually @ 1163.40 a great %R for 30mins work lol!

TAG is now @ 110.57% - doubled my account in 7 trading days

I thinks we will see reversals in EU, GU, AU now..AU is far too high and near RBA intervention area, EU @ technical resistance and GU is stalling @ a PPZ area...dow is 25 pips of 11k and JPY pairs are not really moving.

I've take GU,EU and AU shorts...will post later ...wanna watch price aciton as if I've entered too soon I'll cut them quickly.

Added another position @ 0.9335 same SL 1%

Added another GU 1.5374 1% saem SL as original

EU short 1.3471 - 2% SL 1.3525

Dollar Index is bouncing from near a PPZ...there might be another leg down to fuly test it i.e. further leg up in xxx/USD but I dont wanna miss the boat if it doesnt.

An example of why I need to be more patient with my trades...USD/CHF - price eventually went to the obvious target area (it did come bac and put the initial position in drawdown first)..I closed @ 1.0707 for a 32 pip gain and 0.54R gain. If I'd left it to reach TP @ 1.0655 that would have been a 84 pip gain and 1.65R gain...it's trades like this where I need to stick to my plan more and just set my SL and TP and not look at the chart again...of course there are times when I want to get to BE at a certain point, but that's what MT4 audible alerts are for or even a trade manager...will look into trade manager EA's over the weekend.

My two main aims for the coming weeks is to be more patient with my trasdes and stick to my plan and to catch a whole trend...on the 4H or 1HR from start to finish adding postions on the way.

I'll go over my daily, weekly charts over the weekend and jot down my thoughts over the weekend...it's a key point for EU and GU in particular...break highs could signal a change in the trend (Higher Highs would have formed and strong PPZ broken) a move lower and we will be range trading on the higher time frames again (EU has made a HL this week on the daily) ... I prefer the ranging option (well I'm short xxx/USD!) but I'll post some charts over the weekend

Hi Lovejoy,

Nice and useful Journal. Please keep it up.
Cheers

Ogeid

I thought I'd share my thoughts on AU, GU and EU as I've taken shorts on all of these pairs on Friday.

1. EUR / USD

- We are in a deep down trend on the daily/weekly time frame
- Price has risen to a confluence of the TL, fibs, BRN and hidden confluence (on 4HR).

For these reasons I went short...well worht a speculative short IMO. However I do have a niggling thought that we could be in for a deeper reversal...price has made a higher low last week and a pin bar on weekly points to more bullish price action. But rather than trade what I think might happen I'm trading what my charts currently show me.

If price did break the TL and closed above the high marked in the chart then this would mean we have formed a higher high and higher low and thus I'd be switching quickly to a long entry with a target of 1.3820.

One other thing to note is the chart of the Dollar Index...which again points to a continued move down the the xxx/USD if we stay within the channel. a sustained break of this would enforce the thoughts that we are in for deeper retracements in xxx/USD

Worth bearing in mind a chart of USD/CHF when trading EU as they are correlated...as you can see we have a weekly pin bar and price is winding up...although on the 4H we are a support area.

2. GBP/USD

- Price has been trending down in higher timeframes , although we are ina sideways consolidation between 1.4800 - 1.5385 area since February.

- price is currently at the top of the range with fib confluence and divergence on 4H.

- If price breaks above this range then we have a breakout and I'll be long with a target of 1.5560 PPZ area.

3. AUD/USD

- Price has been in an uptrend but ranging from August last year with a series of lower lows forming but with 7 touches of the area where price now sits (on weekly chart).

- There is a lots of potential resistance at both where we are now and above as can be seen on a weekly chart.

- Daily shows resistance with divergence.

I certainly aim to keep it going...it helps me collect my thoughts and easier to be able to look back over trades. Also welcome any other memebers comments on my trades etc.

Thanks

Hi Lovejoy,
I like your thread, it helps me a lot at my trading. I think you are definitely a talented trader. I wish you all the best!

Brian

Hi Lovejoy,

I would like to post the following chart to know your opinion. I hope I am not deviating from the main purpose of your journal. If I am feel free to kill me!

EUR/GBP
- Weekly on a consolidation ascending triangle with support around 0.875 area.
- Confluence with 350 EMA
- Nice daily PB with space around it
- Pull back to TL

What do you think?

Cheers
Ogeid

How dare you post a chart in my thread...thou shall die! ...post away, I love sharing opinions.

This is my current chart of EG. I dont generally use MA/EMA's but I would definitely include a 350EMA as confluence.

I'm presuming you mean Friday's daily bar which is technically a pin bar but the body is far too big compared to the tail to be classed as a good pin bar.

Our TL's differ in position too, yours is just above Friday's bar and mine just below.

I won't be trading this...I actually wanted to go long on Friday if price touched the PPZ @ 0.87000 but my order missed getting filled by 2pips.

I'm on the sidelines waiting for price to get to the next PPZ area - 0.8834 where I'll be watching how price reacts at this area (alternatively if we head south another touch of the lower PPZ area @ 0.87000 or the weekly TL.

I hope that helps...it's just my opinion and one of the things I've learned is that if you have a proven method that you know works (from backtesting and forward testing i.e. statistically) then don't let someone else talk you out of a trade.

Cheers
Mark

I am really usurping your thread. LOL!

Thanks a lot for your reply. I admire your consistency in applying your method.

I also doubting the body of the PB. BTW going through my charts I noticed a similar situation in GBP/CHF (correlation) with a better shape of PB (IMO).

Thanks again
Ogeid

That is definitely a better setup...but still could be better in terms of location - see my post here.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=60480

Not decided whether I will take this setup yet , I'm already exposed to GBP via GBP/USD shorts so I'll assess later.

Looking through my charts and writing out my 'watchlist' for the week...a list of pairs with either immediate trades I want to take tonight / tomorrow or areas of interest where I'll set MT4 alerts for.

I'm not going to go through all of them as my list is long...but in addition to the EU,u/CHf, AU and GU that I've already discussed I'd like to sahre my views on the CAD in assocition with a chart of Oil.

Here is two charts of Oil...both weekly..first one zoomed out to show the PPZ area marked on my chart and the second one zoomed in to show the current weekly price action. As you can see price has reached the PPZ area and formed a pin bar (although not a great pin bar and not one I would trade outright) with divergence.

Now price might soar through this PPZ but we've already had a reaction at this level so buyers and sellers have noticed this area and the sellers are currently in control. If we get some more selling action and this pin bar breaks then it would be fair to assume the CAD would weaken during the course of next week.

Thus looking at the main two CAD pairs I follow (CAD/JPY and USD/CAD) we we can look for shorts and longs respectively.

For USD/CAD I'll be looking for long entries either @ the PPZ marked coming up or a retest of the recent low. also notice (easier to see on the line chart) how price broke the steep TL and made a new higher high followed by a higher low which is a strong indication of a potential trend change. If price rebounds of the PPZ just below current price and forms a new low then this will be a new higher low and I would expect price then to make a new higher high. Thus, I will be entering a 'speculative' long entry @ this PPZ unless price action on this pair and Oil shows something to convince me not to get in this trade. I use the term speculative as I am basing my trade on assumptions (based on a certain thought process) that the trade has changed without any price action to confirm this. Thus on the balance of probabilities taking into account my thought process there is a higher probability that we could see a bounce at the PPZ and this could be the start of a trend change. If this is proven to be the case (by the formation of a new higher high) then I can then add more positions with higher risk as I am then confident that we are in a new bullish move.

Looking @ CJ we can see the same pattern on the 4H chart i.e. a formation of a LH and LL and a break of the most recent steep TL - in fact the new LH was formed by a retest of the TL and is now resistance (also formed a BEOB). In order for the trend change to be confirmed we will need a break of the outer TL ato make a new LL - at this point I'd enter a short as the trend is confirmed...this would not be aspeculative short like the impending U/CAD trade as the trend change is confirmed.

Now I might of course be completely wrong and this could be just a small retracement to 'pick up' more buying power to push through the PPZ's on Oil and UC, CJ etc...but this is my thoughts and plan and obviously I get paid (by the market) to take risks, but if we manage our risks correctly we can still be wrong a good number of times and make decent returns.

I expect to see a positive Euro @ open...Greece bailout agreed @5% interest rates - below market standard of >7%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...15Jz6UVU&pos=1

Have taken a very small long on EU on my Oanda platform (open 24/7).

Will wait for the market to settle following any reaction before deciding whether to cut my EU shorts...I would expect a bounce in EU and also a lower USD across the board due to increased risk appetite following this news...if the move looks sustained through Asia and European open I'll cut my GU,AU,EU shorts and be looking for longs.

Some other charts I have added to my watchlist for the forthcoming week...the areas I'm watching for a potential trading opportunity should be relatively straghtforward...