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Commodity Talk

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 20, 2010 11:20am Feb 20, 2010 11:20am
Hi all.

Along with Forex I trade a lot of commodities.
Currently have options on silver, corn, T-bills, coffee, cocoa, oil. The recent strength we have seen has taken its toll on the account. But most of the above are still in good shape.

So as I put on positions I will post charts and am looking for imput/ discussiion.

Here I have a daily and weekly cocoa Sept 2010 chart. I have a long position where I have entered with the pull back early Feb. Right now sitting on a little profit.

Sop anyway here it is.

Rufus
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sept 10 Cocoa 2-20.png Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly Cocoa.png Size: 8 KB
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  • #2
  • Feb 20, 2010 11:36am Feb 20, 2010 11:36am
My objective with commodities is to take a position in a trend after a strong pullback.

So for me just about any commodity is game as long as we have liquidity.

Rufus
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  • #3
  • Feb 20, 2010 12:22pm Feb 20, 2010 12:22pm
i see. liquidity. Copper is quite liquid. Aluminum is also very liquid.

I think aluminum is going to be the metal of the future. as Aluminum is used in all transportation vehicles and the future of transportation is going to be very bright. Aluminum will definitely evolved into a super strong lightweight metal.
  • #4
  • Feb 20, 2010 12:23pm Feb 20, 2010 12:23pm
I am constantly on the quest to get the information I need at the least amount of expense.

http://finviz.com/

Great for tons on information on stocks. futures, etc. simple to use
No indicator choices on the charts. Pure candles. I print off page anmd draw trendlines.

http://www.quote.com

Little cumbersome to use but a lot of choices of indicators for your charts.
Also has a lot of information.

I use the first to get overall informtion and ideas. The second to confirm things and use some indicators if I want.

Rufus
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  • #5
  • Feb 20, 2010 12:32pm Feb 20, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting tradedragon
i see. liquidity. Copper is quite liquid. Aluminum is also very liquid.

I think aluminum is going to be the metal of the future. as Aluminum is used in all transportation vehicles and the future of transportation is going to be very bright. Aluminum will definitely evolved into a super strong lightweight metal.
How do you trade aluminum? Stocks for companies that produce it? I don't see it on the futures charts. I would suspect that it will be there shortly.

You are absolutly right about its involvement in the future. Not only the things you said but it is also easily recycled.

Looking at the Alcoa chart. It looks poised for another run up. I will be looking at it with more detail later today.

Rufus
Attached Image
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  • #6
  • Feb 20, 2010 2:34pm Feb 20, 2010 2:34pm
Oil has been surprisingly strong during this bull run by the $. If the $ should weaken...

Natural gas got shot down this week as the emphasis is switching from the recent cold weather (bullish) to whether there is going to be a pickup in industrial demand.

Sugar faces some bearish pressure from the Brazilian sugar harvest that's finally coming in.

Very strong bull runs in live cattle and cotton right now.
  • #7
  • Feb 20, 2010 4:34pm Feb 20, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting Michael112
Oil has been surprisingly strong during this bull run by the $. If the $ should weaken...

Natural gas got shot down this week as the emphasis is switching from the recent cold weather (bullish) to whether there is going to be a pickup in industrial demand.

Sugar faces some bearish pressure from the Brazilian sugar harvest that's finally coming in.

Very strong bull runs in live cattle and cotton right now.
I have a bull call spread on oil right now that is slightly down. I think this oil rally will continue. Like you say also if we get a drop in the dollar oil could be a rocket.

I lost some money on cattle. My options expired to early to catch this run. But I tell you though I think this run is short lived 93 - 94 for live cattle has been a tough hurdle. My dad just sold off his 120 head of cattle a few days ago he wasn't liking the price action. Also this time of year you often see a price rise due to pastures coming in. Another bullish thing for cattle is that the economy appears stronger and people tend to eat more beef. I would love to short cattle soon, but don't have cahonies to do it.

Sugar is another I would love to short. The price is out of whack. When it does slide I suspect it will be quick.

Ah well back to my taxes for the year.

Rufus
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  • #8
  • Feb 21, 2010 3:04pm Feb 21, 2010 3:04pm
Him all

Silver is one of my favorites. I love to own it.

The chart shows like it might be ripe for another run at 20. If it gets past 22 it could really move.

One of the interesting things about silver is the ongoing speculation about price manipulation and such. There is also a school of thought out there that do to silvers industrial demand there is actualy more physical gold being held than physical silver. Gold is not used very much in industry. Silver on the other hand is used everywhere, from electrical contacts to medical supplies. So if this amount of silver that we have is true where will price stop? Hence the manipulation theories.

Ah well, I still like silver. Tomorrow I may be putting in an order for a few shares of a silver mining company.

Rufus

Chart to big to post
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  • #9
  • Feb 21, 2010 8:30pm Feb 21, 2010 8:30pm
I think the reason silver hasn't boomed is because you would need to hold a much larger physical quantity of it than gold for the same value, and in europe there are often worse tax laws for silver than gold. However buying silver as an investment metal is being hyped in china which I think can really help raise the price near its more long term held price ratio with gold.
The greatest force on earth is compound interest.
  • #10
  • Feb 21, 2010 10:58pm Feb 21, 2010 10:58pm
Yea, Silver hasnt boom i agree. It could go up soon.

But I am bullish on Aluminum. It is going to be in huge demand by 2015.
  • #11
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:11pm Feb 21, 2010 11:11pm
Quoting tradedragon
Yea, Silver hasnt boom i agree. It could go up soon.

But I am bullish on Aluminum. It is going to be in huge demand by 2015.

Hey tradedragon

Do yopu trade aluminum by way of the stockmarket? Like Alcoa or some other company.

Rufus
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  • #12
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:13pm Feb 21, 2010 11:13pm
Quoting sebastionay
I think the reason silver hasn't boomed is because you would need to hold a much larger physical quantity of it than gold for the same value, and in europe there are often worse tax laws for silver than gold. However buying silver as an investment metal is being hyped in china which I think can really help raise the price near its more long term held price ratio with gold.

China with 1 billion people. If each bought 1 ounce....... I don't know if there is enough available. Maybe I should buy more.

Rufus
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  • #13
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:26pm Feb 21, 2010 11:26pm
Silver is good to fade when precious metals sentiment takes a dive; goldbugs will buy gold to cushion its fall, no one cares for silver during its fall.

OTOH, if gold gets high enough, the public will prefer to pile into silver as a cheaper anti-inflation hedge.
  • #14
  • Feb 26, 2010 9:40pm Feb 26, 2010 9:40pm
Picked up a June 2010 95 CHF call today.

With all the problems with the euro, Greece etc. Also the USD in a funk. There may be a flight to the CHF. In the years past the CHF has been a "safe" place to put your money. Big base siting at 92 to work from.

So we will see in a month or two if I am right.

Rufus
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  • #15
  • Feb 27, 2010 8:03pm Feb 27, 2010 8:03pm
Hi, yea i trade aluminum by buying aluminum stocks.

Alcoa, Chalco and Cenx.

I think Alcoa looks very cheap now.

$13.30 is really cheap.

China's PMI is coming up on monday. Should that be very positive, I see a commodity rally coming up next month.
Copper could go to new highs $3.45, Aluminum could hit $1.00

Should tat happen, Alcoa should rise marginally to $15.1

Tat's how I trade aluminum.
  • #16
  • Feb 27, 2010 9:25pm Feb 27, 2010 9:25pm
I am glad you posted that. I forgot all about looking into Alcoa with all the work and such I have been doing. I would have to agree with you Alcoa is looking very good.

Rufus
Attached Image
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  • #17
  • Feb 28, 2010 2:08pm Feb 28, 2010 2:08pm
yea, and it is everywhere. All the news are saying that aluminum demand is increasing.

Rusal increasing output.
National India increasing output.
Chalco increasing alumina output
Alcoa 100% alumina output in their brazils plants.
CENX resuming output Iceland plants.

Aluminum demand is going to explode.

JAPAN industrials show high motor sales.
China PMI most probably going to show good auto sales.

Boeing increases orders by 50 planes,

the aluminum rally is starting. Load up all aluminum stocks.
  • #18
  • Edited 10:08pm Mar 30, 2010 9:13pm | Edited 10:08pm
Quoting Rufus
China with 1 billion people. If each bought 1 ounce....... I don't know if there is enough available. Maybe I should buy more.

Rufus
I don't know about that but silver is consumed by industry unlike gold which doesn't disappear.

Does anyone trade columbium/Niobium or Coltan?
The greatest force on earth is compound interest.
  • #19
  • Apr 6, 2010 10:22pm Apr 6, 2010 10:22pm
Quoting sebastionay
I don't know about that but silver is consumed by industry unlike gold which doesn't disappear.
There are "experts" out there that estimate that there is actually less above ground silver than above ground gold due to the industrial demand.

I am a perpetual silver bull. I think it will be a long time before I would ever short it.

Rufus
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  • #20
  • Apr 10, 2010 5:25am Apr 10, 2010 5:25am
There is also a vid on these forums showing chinese news channels telling the public to buy silver as an investment metal.
The greatest force on earth is compound interest.
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