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Peaks and Valleys (Trading Naked)

  • #581
  • Apr 1, 2010 3:19pm Apr 1, 2010 3:19pm
Where do you guys put your stops at for this method? Heres an idea I had, nothing crazy, but I think I will try it out for awhile. Here we have a breakout, and I put my stop behind the nearest PPZ beyond the breakout. I use the ATR, its not a magic number, just something to keep some consistancy. At 1 ATR profit I pull 33 percent, I cut my stop to 1/4th, which puts me at BE, or slight profit, and keeps my stop hidden behind place I played breakout from. Then, how to trail other main position? I am split between hard targets and trailing behind other peak's, and valleys. Trailing behind other peaks and valleys would be more consistant, but how many of these big moves can I really catch playing that conservative.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.gif Size: 23 KB


First line is minor PPZ prior to breakout. Second line is where my stop would be.
  • #582
  • Edited Apr 3, 2010 4:55am Apr 2, 2010 11:47am | Edited Apr 3, 2010 4:55am
Quoting Jlr
Where do you guys put your stops at for this method? Heres an idea I had, nothing crazy, but I think I will try it out for awhile. Here we have a breakout, and I put my stop behind the nearest PPZ beyond the breakout. I use the ATR, its not a magic number, just something to keep some consistancy. At 1 ATR profit I pull 33 percent, I cut my stop to 1/4th, which puts me at BE, or slight profit, and keeps my stop hidden behind place I played breakout from. Then, how to trail other main position? I am split between hard targets and trailing behind other...
The very first thing to consider while managing my trades that I never use arbitrary numbers like 15, 20 or ATR. I always look for near S/R to move stops or taking profits.

Well this a very difficult question to answer cause every trade has a different outcome I mean you could be certain about a trade/price to some extent that it will travel from point X to point Z but you could never know how it will go there.

Will it shoot up in a minute and touch Z? Will it take some time making further peaks and valleys? Will it just show you a profit straight away after you enter the trade or will it hang near you entry price or maybe go below it and show you a drawdown for several days before continuing in your direction again?

So it is like a TRUE/FALSE question exam and you have no idea what the answers are. What you can do in this situation is to tick either all the FALSE boxes or TRUE boxes. So you could get 50%-70% of them right.

So this is how exactly you could manage your trades. If you take quick profits of 20-40 pips and set your SL at BE you will surely have a high win rate BUT you may not catch big runners for weeks or even months. If you wait for price to either hit your SL or hit the next S/R level before taking partial profits and moving your SL you won't have a high win rate but you would catch 200-500 pip moves more often.

So whatever style you want to pick for your trade management stick to it for 3-6 months and see if it suites your personality and your tradiing method.

With experience and solid believe in your skills/methods you can start to treat different trades/scenarios with different trade management approach's that will help you successfully execute your different market situations more often.

LIKE KNOWING THE CORRECT ANSWER TO EVERY QUESTION.
In the end all I could say is that a stranger on internet cannot tell you that what will work for you.

TO KNOW THE GAME YOU NEED TO PLAY THE GAME.
  • #583
  • Apr 2, 2010 12:36pm Apr 2, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting nasir.khan
Well this a very difficult question to answer cause every trade has a different outcome I mean you could be certain about a trade/price to some extent that it will travel from point X to point Z but you could never know how it will go there.
Will it shoot up in a minute and touch Z? Will it take some time making further peaks and valleys? Will it just show you a profit straight away after you enter the trade or will it hang near you entry price or maybe go below it and show you a drawdown for several days before continuing in your direction again?...
Hmm, yeah, you are very right. Thanks for the well thought out answer. The ATR thing, its just so I can keep similar stops. I would not want a 30 pip stop for g/j, and the same stop for u/j, I mean its not a big deal of course. Starting next week I'm going to set up 2 seperate demo accounts, and try to put in a solid month of testing for both. I think that is a fair way to asses this method, considering how many trades it produces, 1 month would be a huge sample of trades already. Guess I'll have to see.
1 last question I had. Say a peak/valley rides up against a PPZ, would you play the break of the peak/valley, which is also a PPZ break? Thanks again for all the help
  • #584
  • Apr 3, 2010 5:05am Apr 3, 2010 5:05am
Quoting Jlr
1 last question I had. Say a peak/valley rides up against a PPZ, would you play the break of the peak/valley, which is also a PPZ break? Thanks again for all the help
Check the charts i posted in this thread and you'll get your answer. .
.
  • #585
  • Apr 3, 2010 5:43am Apr 3, 2010 5:43am
Quoting kingping
kevin, your idealogy is really quite impressive, but i find it difficult to trace the valleys and peak on the running market,
like i am watching currently over the EURUSD chart for H4, and ongoing, i placed some valleys and peaks, now m stuck at a point where i am not able to make a valley.....
please enlighten this point for me
thanx...
Can you post a chart showing your problem.
.
  • #586
  • Apr 3, 2010 7:54am Apr 3, 2010 7:54am
Is everyone trading this strategy off the 4H charts? I'm wondering if anyone is having luck trading off the 1H.

I keep finding for most of the pairs (most of the time) that a 50 pip SL is insufficient for this strategy on the 4H chart -- that it often doesn't cover the length of even a single candle. And going for an even larger stop would leave me with a positively microscopic lot size...
  • #587
  • Apr 5, 2010 2:34am Apr 5, 2010 2:34am
Quoting Tailgun
Is everyone trading this strategy off the 4H charts? I'm wondering if anyone is having luck trading off the 1H.

I keep finding for most of the pairs (most of the time) that a 50 pip SL is insufficient for this strategy on the 4H chart -- that it often doesn't cover the length of even a single candle. And going for an even larger stop would leave me with a positively microscopic lot size...
Like i said, I am never comfortable using random numbers like 20-50-100. I use S/R for my SL's specially. Sometimes it's 20 pips sometimes its 100 pips.

But every body have their own choice.
.
  • #588
  • Apr 8, 2010 2:39am Apr 8, 2010 2:39am
Some current trades...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #589
  • Apr 8, 2010 4:52am Apr 8, 2010 4:52am
Quoting lovejoy80
Some current trades...
I'm also in UC (thanks to Nasir!!) and UJ...
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #590
  • Apr 9, 2010 1:23am Apr 9, 2010 1:23am
Quoting Chris_B
I'm also in UC (thanks to Nasir!!) and UJ...
Hope you got out of UC okay! That move was very frustrating - sometimes you do get some quick moves with CAD. UJ didnt go as far as I wanted it to but a stop and reverse was valid - havent quite mastered it yet like Nasir.

GBP / CHf going well.

Just taken this gold breakout...did anyone get the whole trend and add in positions on each breakout?
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  • #591
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:39am Apr 9, 2010 5:39am
Quoting lovejoy80
Hope you got out of UC okay! That move was very frustrating - sometimes you do get some quick moves with CAD. UJ didnt go as far as I wanted it to but a stop and reverse was valid - havent quite mastered it yet like Nasir.

GBP / CHf going well.

Just taken this gold breakout...did anyone get the whole trend and add in positions on each breakout?
Unfortunately took a full loss on UC...Im'in gold...but entered just yesterday on the retracement, not on the breakout...my stop is at BE...
I always have dounbt with this method on when move my stop to BE...even on UC i could have moved my stop...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.gif Size: 10 KB
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #592
  • Apr 9, 2010 8:42am Apr 9, 2010 8:42am
Quoting lovejoy80
Some current trades...
Nice ones.

Whats the reason for first short on AJ?
.
  • #593
  • Apr 9, 2010 8:46am Apr 9, 2010 8:46am
Quoting lovejoy80
Hope you got out of UC okay! That move was very frustrating - sometimes you do get some quick moves with CAD. UJ didnt go as far as I wanted it to but a stop and reverse was valid - havent quite mastered it yet like Nasir.

GBP / CHf going well.

Just taken this gold breakout...did anyone get the whole trend and add in positions on each breakout?
I did bought at 28, 34, 38 and then closed all at 44.
.
  • #594
  • Apr 9, 2010 8:51am Apr 9, 2010 8:51am
Quoting Chris_B
Unfortunately took a full loss on UC...Im'in gold...but entered just yesterday on the retracement, not on the breakout...my stop is at BE...
I always have dounbt with this method on when move my stop to BE...even on UC i could have moved my stop...
Nice trade Chris.

Stop to BE or not.
.
  • #595
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:28am Apr 9, 2010 9:28am
Quoting nasir.khan
Nice ones.

Whats the reason for first short on AJ?
.
This was my notes at the time...

'looking weak , divergence, near TL resistance, JPY looking strong'

Not concrete reasons but it was more of a feel and I decided to risk 1% on it.
  • #596
  • Apr 9, 2010 10:46am Apr 9, 2010 10:46am
Quoting nasir.khan
I did bought at 28, 34, 38 and then closed all at 44.
.


I got out of gold earlier when it started to retrace and back in again when it hit previous support and back out again @ 1163.40...a PPZ around this area...

Looking for reversals now on EU,AU and GU
  • #597
  • Apr 9, 2010 11:25am Apr 9, 2010 11:25am
Quoting lovejoy80
Looking for reversals now on EU,AU and GU
Why?
  • #598
  • Apr 9, 2010 11:40am Apr 9, 2010 11:40am
Quoting nasir.khan
Why?
...
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  • #599
  • Apr 9, 2010 6:25pm Apr 9, 2010 6:25pm
Hi,lovejoy80

I am impressed by your trades, it seems all of yours except the last one are counter trend. what were the reasons for you to enter those CT trades, if I may ask?

Quoting lovejoy80
Some current trades...
  • #600
  • Apr 10, 2010 2:48am Apr 10, 2010 2:48am
Quoting jeurre
Hi,lovejoy80

I am impressed by your trades, it seems all of yours except the last one are counter trend. what were the reasons for you to enter those CT trades, if I may ask?
There is no particular reason for my trades being CT...it's just going with the current 'trend' on that timeline...the break of HH and HL's indicated a trend change (talkng about a short entry) and then it's a case of playing each break of a HL until there is an obvious trend reversal point again...pickingthe start of the 'trend' is the hardest part...after that adding in further positions is straightforward and each time moving you SL's up etc...

Of course the market doesn't always trend...in fact it has been trending rather well lately.
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