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  • #6,541
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:07pm Apr 8, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting TC East
Not sure I follow you here; isn't this what a squat is? Or does it need to be ultra high vol vs. just "regular" high?
Don't try too add too many terms. It's really simple if you look at just price and volume (activity). Just re-read what I wrote.
  • #6,542
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:10pm Apr 8, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting wh1zz0
Don't try too add too many terms. It's really simple if you look at just price and volume. Just re-read what I wrote.
Not worried about terms just asking for clarification because what you describe is opposite of what I read in MTM. At top of an upmove, a high vol low spread bar is a sign of sellers coming in and capping the move. Regardless of what it's called, again, it's just from what I read in MTM...
  • #6,543
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:16pm Apr 8, 2010 7:16pm
Quoting TC East
Not worried about terms just asking for clarification because what you describe is opposite of what I read in MTM. At top of an upmove, a high vol low spread bar is a sign of sellers coming in and capping the move. Regardless of what it's called, again, it's just from what I read in MTM...
Okay...

Have a look at GU M15 chart: 2010.03.17.

Now that is a real good example of buying climax. End of a rising market. Compare the two and you will see they are quite different.

What is going on now is hidden buying.
  • #6,544
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:20pm Apr 8, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting TC East
Not worried about terms just asking for clarification because what you describe is opposite of what I read in MTM. At top of an upmove, a high vol low spread bar is a sign of sellers coming in and capping the move. Regardless of what it's called, again, it's just from what I read in MTM...
Quoting Wh1zz0
...Right now during Asia.. Here's what I'm seeing.. After the mark up.. The M15 candle forming is having very little spread on the down bar BUT the volume is increasing. This looks like accumulation or Inside buying, because If actually a reversal is near, then the spread of the candle should be wider.
When strength appears it appears on Down bars. When weakness appears it appears on Up bars. You two are talking about identical concepts but in the opposite direction.............

When the high volume narrow range bar comes after an upmove an is into new territory, we call it "end of a rising market". A specific name for the general concept of a squat. Thus all end of a rising markets bars are squats but not all squats are end of a rising market. And all end of a rising markets bar will come on UP bars.

The bar discribed as a down bar, therefore cannot be an end of a rising market. Yet it is a squat. And based soley on the post does represent demand swamping supply on that bar.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #6,545
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:26pm Apr 8, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting HiddenGap
When strength appears it appears on Down bars. When weakness appears it appears on Up bars. You two are talking about identical concepts but in the opposite direction.............
Yes, correct. But what I was specifically trying to point out is that the relationship between the spread and volume should be considered when making a judgment on bullish or bearish volume.
  • #6,546
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:42pm Apr 8, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting HiddenGap
When strength appears it appears on Down bars. When weakness appears it appears on Up bars. You two are talking about identical concepts but in the opposite direction.............

When the high volume narrow range bar comes after an upmove an is into new territory, we call it "end of a rising market". A specific name for the general concept of a squat. Thus all end of a rising markets bars are squats but not all squats are end of a rising market. And all end of a rising markets bar will come on UP bars.

The bar discribed as a down bar, therefore...
LOL....

You are mixing it all up buddy. Read my post properly.

I never said that the down bar which just occurred signals the the end of a rising market. I said the scenario on the 2010.03.17 is an example of buying climax "end of a rising market" which is quite different from what is happening now. I said this because I assumed he was calling for a reversal.
  • #6,547
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:50pm Apr 8, 2010 7:50pm
While we are on the subject of patience and market timming, i thought this article was great. This guy waited 10 years for his IPO to come back to break even.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/liv...7?pagenumber=1
  • #6,548
  • Apr 8, 2010 7:58pm Apr 8, 2010 7:58pm
Quoting wh1zz0
LOL....

You are mixing it all up buddy. Read my post properly.

I never said that the down bar which just occurred signals the the end of a rising market. I said the scenario on the 2010.03.17 is an example of buying climax "end of a rising market" which is quite different from what is happening now. I said this because I assumed he was calling for a reversal.
Well actually I think he understood your post quite well, much better than me.

I did look at that high vol down bar after the GU markup as a sign of reversal, but think I may now understand the difference being described a little better. BUT, GU is actually reversing as I write this, so we'll see, but just trying to learn is all, which is why I asked...
  • #6,549
  • Apr 9, 2010 12:15am Apr 9, 2010 12:15am
In view of the coming Canadian employment Change DATA. I would like to discuss how VSA charting play out in anticipation of the NEWS. Here is my take for now.

(Initial target project is within Avg Daily Range)
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  • #6,550
  • Apr 9, 2010 3:36am Apr 9, 2010 3:36am
Quoting malcolmb14
something i have noticed is :

lets say we see buyers and up day as we have seen today...
already got 1,5375.

malcolmb, do you still think the same ?

thanks a lot..
  • #6,551
  • Apr 9, 2010 3:42am Apr 9, 2010 3:42am
Quoting bruceli
already got 1,5375.

malcolmb, do you still think the same ?

thanks a lot..
with market conditions in us and now London we could see an ultra wide day of 250 pip .Just since beginning of London we have seen an 80 pip move , and daily atr is 150

The ultrahigh volume on 30 3 bars back has knocked market sideways for now.

We could see weekly close 1.5450 to 1.5500 BUT i went long 1.5265 , closed at 1.5370 in accordance with plan and with my 100 pip target for the day , has been an awesome week for me even though gu was ugly. So calling it a night and weekend .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #6,552
  • Apr 9, 2010 4:04am Apr 9, 2010 4:04am
Quoting malcolmb14
with market conditions in us and now London we could see an ultra wide day of 250 pip .Just since beginning of London we have seen an 80 pip move , and daily atr is 150

The ultrahigh volume on 30 3 bars back has knocked market sideways for now.

We could see weekly close 1.5450 to 1.5500 BUT i went long 1.5265 , closed at 1.5370 in accordance with plan and with my 100 pip target for the day , has been an awesome week for me even though gu was ugly. So calling it a night and weekend .
I need to see 1,5300 again to close my position at zero profit. and 1,5450 - 1,55 sounds very bad. bollinger bands leads this situation. i took several times, and lost for now at once..
thank you so much malcolmb for sharing your prediction.
  • #6,553
  • Edited 5:25am Apr 9, 2010 5:12am | Edited 5:25am
update on my previous post on USDCAD

ref: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6550

Possible strengths coming in at critical fibo level. (counting down to news about 45 mins to go.)

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  • #6,554
  • Apr 9, 2010 5:33am Apr 9, 2010 5:33am
Quoting malcolmb14
with market conditions in us and now London we could see an ultra wide day of 250 pip .Just since beginning of London we have seen an 80 pip move , and daily atr is 150

The ultrahigh volume on 30 3 bars back has knocked market sideways for now.

We could see weekly close 1.5450 to 1.5500 BUT i went long 1.5265 , closed at 1.5370 in accordance with plan and with my 100 pip target for the day , has been an awesome week for me even though gu was ugly. So calling it a night and weekend .
Yeah GU was hell this week, good to hear you are doing ok

Have a nice weekend. Cheers!
  • #6,555
  • Apr 9, 2010 6:29am Apr 9, 2010 6:29am
update on my previous post on USDCAD

ref: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6554

Sorry i miss this post on the revise Target on USDCAD just before the news (TP estimate is within ADR)

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  • #6,556
  • Apr 9, 2010 7:26am Apr 9, 2010 7:26am
Possible weakness in GU now


Additional indication of weak demand is prefer for as an alternative entry for a sell.


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  • #6,557
  • Apr 9, 2010 8:02am Apr 9, 2010 8:02am
Hi lascavel,

Nice chart! I wonder how you can tell supply coming in, because it fail to new high? What I see is two consecutive up bars with increased volume, i suppose they are healthy up bars. Could you explain it?

Thanks,

polomine

Quoting lascavel
Possible weakness in GU now


Additional indication of weak demand is prefer for as an alternative entry for a sell.


Attachment
  • #6,558
  • Apr 9, 2010 8:23am Apr 9, 2010 8:23am
Quoting polomine
Hi lascavel,

Nice chart! I wonder how you can tell supply coming in, because it fail to new high? What I see is two consecutive up bars with increased volume, i suppose they are healthy up bars. Could you explain it?

Thanks,

polomine
In most cases if there are signs of weakness before, any upbars with increase vol with relative spread(length of bar is similar for the pass few bars) indicates hidden selling of sorts. Therefore these are possible profession activities selling into weakness.

Cheers
  • #6,559
  • Apr 9, 2010 8:29am Apr 9, 2010 8:29am
Thank you for your reply. It seems I need to do homework this weekend.

Another silly question, I found you draw fibo lines in a different way. I mean the start point and the end point is in a reversed order that mine. what do you think of it?

Regards,

Quoting lascavel
In most cases if there are signs of weakness before, any upbars with increase vol with relative spread(length of bar is similar for the pass few bars) indicates hidden selling of sorts. Therefore these are possible profession activities selling into weakness.

Cheers
  • #6,560
  • Apr 9, 2010 9:03am Apr 9, 2010 9:03am
Quoting polomine
Thank you for your reply. It seems I need to do homework this weekend.

Another silly question, I found you draw fibo lines in a different way. I mean the start point and the end point is in a reversed order that mine. what do you think of it?

Regards,
No at all silly, for my case it depends on available swings which i can measure off it. In this case i m trying to ascertain possible retracement level to either 38.2 or 23.6 % (high percentage replacement target levels).

But if i am doing a projection, e.g.for a buy target I will use recent swing hi(100%) & low(0%) respectively. please refer to my previous USDCAD post :http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6556

Vice versa for a sell.

Cheers!
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