VantagePoint discussion thread | Page 8 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Daily Scalping EA - Discussion Thread 349 replies

genisis data vantagepoint 1 reply

Forward Testing Discussion Thread 241 replies

VantagePoint Sample System 0 replies

VantagePoint Graphics thread 27 replies

Attachments: VantagePoint discussion thread
Exit Attachments

VantagePoint discussion thread

  • #141
  • Jan 2, 2006 5:20pm Jan 2, 2006 5:20pm
Quoting drjoe4x
Rocket,

Currently I am establishing rules for both day trading and position trading using VP. I will tell you this to keep your confidence, I've made 20 trades with VP analysis and nothing else, and had 20 winning trades 0 losers. This was 18 day trades and 2 overnight small time frame position trades. I plan to position trade for longer time frames over the next few weeks as the software dictates trend reversal and continuation.

Thx for the question...
One of the things I've noticed is that the greatest percentage of my trades with VP were almost all in a relatively decent profit even when the market did turn and stop me out. I'd often thought that with careful market monitoring it should not be that hard to develop a system that had a very high winning rate.

Regardless your 20 winning trades in a row is impressive. I'm rather curious to see how long this run continues.

FT
  • #142
  • Edited 3:53am Jan 3, 2006 3:44am | Edited 3:53am
Good mornning FT! thanks for the reply....good to hear from you again.

your comments are excellent and noteworthy, as always, and greatly appreciated....Thank you!....I guess my biggest question for now is how to most accurately determine the trend for the time period being traded: using VP's precicted indicators, or addtl indicators not included in VP, or some combination of the 2...?

would welcome everone's comments regarding this issue, and also any additional information on how they are using the VP signals/indicators. I am especially interested in any strategies that would allow me to place trades that would not require monitoring during the day while I'm away at work.

again I must mention that I am very pleased to be a member of the Forex Factory, and greatful for all those who are so willing to share their experience and ideas with other fellow traders. Thanks!....as a new forex trader, this info is greatly appreciated.

Have to get to work shortly....good trading to all!

robrob
  • #143
  • Jan 3, 2006 9:30pm Jan 3, 2006 9:30pm
After spending some time analyzing the history of the eur/usd for 60 trading days, I would like to pass along some observations that I hope will be educational. I set up a spreadsheet that allowed for entering trades 15 pips before the predicted high or low for the day with a 25 pip S/L. This stop was chosen because the data showed that when the currency value exceeds the predicted H/L, it is usually always WAY beyond that predicted value. The T/P amount was set to 50 pips. The one shortcoming in this test that I cannot eliminate without going back and looking at daily price activity, is to know if the value went to the high or the low first. In some cases this would probably have affected the outcome of my analysis, but I do not believe it would have changed the overall results significantly. 60 trading days, 54 trades executed, 30 winners, 24 losers. Total gain = 1500 pips, total loss = 600 pips, net gain = 900 pips. As I have stated before, monitoring trades will produce better results, but for the purpose of this test, I assumed a ‘set and forget’ system. It is my intention to examine other currency pairs in the same manner and report my findings here.

I am currently using the VP software to trade a demo account in a system that is regularly monitored, and the results are very good.

Any comments or observations would be appreciated.
  • #144
  • Jan 3, 2006 10:28pm Jan 3, 2006 10:28pm
Quoting BeachBum
I set up a spreadsheet that allowed for entering trades 15 pips before the predicted high or low for the day with a 25 pip S/L. This stop was chosen because the data showed that when the currency value exceeds the predicted H/L, it is usually always WAY beyond that predicted value. The T/P amount was set to 50 pips..
Very interesting and promising ...

Did you set the trade up with both a low entry and high entry .. or was it based on the direction of the trade as predicted by VP .. and if so what indicator was used to project the directon of the trade?


thanks
  • #145
  • Jan 4, 2006 12:16am Jan 4, 2006 12:16am
Wow, BB. Thanks for those results.

I wonder what the results would be if you only executed the trades according to the neural index.

So if it was a 1. you would buy 15 pips above the predicted low.. and so on.

I'll test it too. Let's see if our results compare.

Thanks so much for your teaching. i'm very excited. THis is exactly what i needed!
I think I can I think I can I think I can...
  • #146
  • Jan 4, 2006 1:28am Jan 4, 2006 1:28am
Quoting drjoe4x
Hey Spud,

Here is what VP says about the Neural Index:

"The NI indicates whether or not the market is expected to make a top or bottom and change trend direction within the next TWO days, based on a comparison of two 3-day moving averages."
Piotruslalka .... Using the Neural index may not be the best way to go as it is desribed in the above quote from a previouse post by drjoe4x ..

Perhaps using the "Predicted Short Term Trend" value weather it is + or - may be a better indicator of the next days trading trend. What do you think?
  • #147
  • Jan 4, 2006 4:53am Jan 4, 2006 4:53am
Quoting BeachBum
After spending some time analyzing the history of the eur/usd for 60 trading days, I would like to pass along some observations that I hope will be educational. I set up a spreadsheet that allowed for entering trades 15 pips before the predicted high or low for the day with a 25 pip S/L. This stop was chosen because the data showed that when the currency value exceeds the predicted H/L, it is usually always WAY beyond that predicted value. The T/P amount was set to 50 pips. The one shortcoming in this test that I cannot eliminate without going back and looking at daily price activity, is to know if the value went to the high or the low first. In some cases this would probably have affected the outcome of my analysis, but I do not believe it would have changed the overall results significantly. 60 trading days, 54 trades executed, 30 winners, 24 losers. Total gain = 1500 pips, total loss = 600 pips, net gain = 900 pips. As I have stated before, monitoring trades will produce better results, but for the purpose of this test, I assumed a ‘set and forget’ system. It is my intention to examine other currency pairs in the same manner and report my findings here.

I am currently using the VP software to trade a demo account in a system that is regularly monitored, and the results are very good.

Any comments or observations would be appreciated.
Excellent information. I'd noticed that trades entered with stops of 15 or more pips outside the predicted range had a low incidence of turning round and have wondered what the optimum level would be but have been a bit too busy with the PF to get round to analysing the history. Thanks for confirming my suspicions on stops. That will make a great difference to me when I get back to my system refinements soon to come.

Did you assume daily entries on both sides of the market or did you have a means of selecting short or long?

My decision tree worked like this:

1. Decide which side of the market to bias for that day.
2. Decide how close to the predicted limit to place the trade.
3. Decide where to exit.
4. Decide how to exit.

I personally got the best results when I first looked for a directional bias and took either long or short for that day. When I thought there was no clear directional bias then I'd enter both sides on an OCO basis or I'd not enter at all if the market looked to confused.

FT
  • #148
  • Jan 4, 2006 5:04am Jan 4, 2006 5:04am
Quoting piotruslalka
Wow, BB. Thanks for those results.

I wonder what the results would be if you only executed the trades according to the neural index.

So if it was a 1. you would buy 15 pips above the predicted low.. and so on.

I'll test it too. Let's see if our results compare.

Thanks so much for your teaching. i'm very excited. THis is exactly what i needed!
I could find no directional correlation with the Index indicator for the next day. In fact it is designed to look about 2 to 3 days out and perhaps one should take the index indicator from two days previous and attempt to apply that to the current days predictions. I don't know if that would produce a better correlation or not. Also I think the index is best combined with pts and ptm and that and orderly change in all three is most likely to be strongest.

Example:

1. PTS goes from long to short on monday.
2. Index goes from long to short tuesday or Wednesday.
3. PTM goes from long to short on Wednesday.
4. Then watch the next four days for a shift in directional bias if the PTS, PTM, and Index all stay short.
5. Also observe the strength indicator for increase in momentum.
6. Look also for degree of angle and separation in PTS and PTM to increase.
7. Look for market to open mid range or in the stronger (in this short bias the lower 1/2) half of the predicted range and head in one direction and not look back as a sign of directional strength.
8. When consolidation begins to take place look for entries near the opposite s/r of the trend. (in this example the phigh) During a strong trend you most likely will not get in near the extremes of the day and you'll often see breaches of the s/r in the direction of the trend.

FT
  • #149
  • Jan 4, 2006 5:11am Jan 4, 2006 5:11am
Quoting mmills4x
Does anyone know of a signal service based on vantage point's predictions? If so, what is the web-site?
If a signal service purports to be based on VP predictions they are committing a copyright violation. The license agreement you received clearly prohibits the use of VP data for including in other systems for resale or distribution. The use of VP data output is permitted only for the benefit of a users personal trading account(s) only. If anyone finds a service that is violating their license agreement -- and you report it to VP I'm pretty sure they'd be very grateful to you for it.

FT
  • #150
  • Jan 4, 2006 2:30pm Jan 4, 2006 2:30pm
hmmm. So when I post my spreadsheet should I strip out the VP data I used to generate it? Shouldn't be a problem for those with VP to repopulate I suppose.
  • #151
  • Edited 2:04am Jan 5, 2006 1:41am | Edited 2:04am
Quoting spudbox
hmmm. So when I post my spreadsheet should I strip out the VP data I used to generate it? Shouldn't be a problem for those with VP to repopulate I suppose.
Thanks for your comments. I don't know VP's answer but since you are not selling anything or using it to make money, and since VP shows historical market information as part of their presentation I don't imagine it will be a problem. However if you post it and VP has a problem I'm sure they'll let us know. If that becomes an issue I'll inform you and we may need to remove it. However unless I hear differently please feel free to post your spreadsheet. If I get complaints we can revert to the users populating it with their own data.

Thanks,


FT
  • #152
  • Edited 2:31am Jan 5, 2006 2:02am | Edited 2:31am
A contributor from Moneytec dropped in and posted a derrogatory post about VP. However as is common with all the people who have been posting crap about VP -- he had no actual arguments about what specifically is wrong with the software. Posts from anyone who has some good technical reasons that invalidate VP on the basis of an intelligent technical arguement will be discussed and entertained here.

However he had nothing to say but the standard criticizm about their marketing methods which has already been discussed here and will continue to be dicussed in the light of how to take advantage of VP's pricing flexibility. Any idiot can criticize with rhetoric but it takes some intelligence and a winning attitude to be in the top 5 percent. Let the losers tear each other apart and their distraction be our advantage.

So anyone who came here looking for general slander against VP I'll tell you how to get more of it than you can read in a day. Just use any popular search engine and you'll find plenty of people (even disgruntled people who have purchased it) expressing a lot of uninformed and irresponsible garbage about it. In fact the guy who posted says that he has plenty of trash to say about VP. So why should we dupicate it here if it is already over there?

Since that sort of thing is so common I have no interest in promoting it since the common or even popular viewpoint about any trading has proven to be the viewpoint that loses money.

When he said in his post that he wasn't going to post here anymore because the moderator didn't want negative crap posted about VP -- I thought "why should we care"?

FT
  • #153
  • Jan 5, 2006 2:07am Jan 5, 2006 2:07am
whats up with moneytec anyway. i stop in over there and geez its full of awful people. seriously this place is like heaven and its like hell. its an amazing thing to see. jim
Quoting fijitrader
A contributor from Moneytec dropped in and posted a derrogatory post about VP. However as is common with all the people who have been posting crap about VP -- he had no actual arguments about what specifically is wrong with the software. Posts from anyone who has some good technical reasons that invalidate VP on the basis of an intelligent technical arguement will be discussed and entertained here.

However he had nothing to say but the standard criticizm about their market methods which has already been discussed here and will continue to be dicussed in the light of how to take advantage of VP's flexibility. Any idiot can criticize with rhetoric but it takes some intelligence and a winning attitude to be in the top 5 percent. Let the losers tear each other apart and their distraction be our advantage.

So anyone you came here looking for general slander against VP I'll tell you how to get more of it than you can read in a day. Just use any popular search engine and you'll find plenty of people (even disgruntled people who have purchased it) expressing a lot of uninformed and irresponsible garbage about it. In fact the guy who posted says that he has plenty of trash to say about VP. So why should we dupicate it here if it is already over there?

Since that sort of thing is so common I have no interest in promoting it since the common or even popular viewpoint about any trading has proven to be the viewpoint that loses money.

When he said in his post that he wasn't going to post here anymore because people didn't want to hear negative crap about VP I thought "why should we care"?

FT
  • #154
  • Jan 5, 2006 2:27am Jan 5, 2006 2:27am
Quoting james16
whats up with moneytec anyway. i stop in over there and geez its full of awful people. seriously this place is like heaven and its like hell. its an amazing thing to see. jim
I thought about spending a while bashing moneytec here but then it occurred to me it was not worth the trouble.

FT
  • #155
  • Jan 5, 2006 4:13am Jan 5, 2006 4:13am
Quoting BeachBum
After spending some time analyzing the history of the eur/usd for 60 trading days, I would like to pass along some observations that I hope will be educational. I set up a spreadsheet that allowed for entering trades 15 pips before the predicted high or low for the day with a 25 pip S/L. This stop was chosen because the data showed that when the currency value exceeds the predicted H/L, it is usually always WAY beyond that predicted value. The T/P amount was set to 50 pips. The one shortcoming in this test that I cannot eliminate without going back and looking at daily price activity, is to know if the value went to the high or the low first. In some cases this would probably have affected the outcome of my analysis, but I do not believe it would have changed the overall results significantly. 60 trading days, 54 trades executed, 30 winners, 24 losers. Total gain = 1500 pips, total loss = 600 pips, net gain = 900 pips. As I have stated before, monitoring trades will produce better results, but for the purpose of this test, I assumed a ‘set and forget’ system. It is my intention to examine other currency pairs in the same manner and report my findings here.

I am currently using the VP software to trade a demo account in a system that is regularly monitored, and the results are very good.

Any comments or observations would be appreciated.
BB

just read your thread and it appears to pretty well describes the type of trading plan I've been searching for: a plan that would allow me to trade VP while I'm away at work and unable to monitor my trades ....i envision setting up potential trades after downloading the end-of-day data, making any changes when i get up for work at 3am, and then allowing the trades to run their course, given stop and profit limits...


Just a few questions:

1. are you looking at any other currency pairs other than the eur/usd?

2. are you trading off both the high and low, or only trading in the perceived
direction of the trend ?

3. have you found the 50 pip profit target to be a good number, or are you
finding that a higher/lower target produces better results?

As a new forex trader and new member here at the Forex Factory, I would greatly appreciate everyone's comments/suggestions/results who are also looking at these same and similar parameters....

I love being a part of this trading community, and appreciate the help, advice, suggestions, and observations that all are contributing..Thanks!

God bless...and good trading to all!

robrob
  • #156
  • Edited 6:42pm Jan 5, 2006 7:01am | Edited 6:42pm
All right, Fiji, since you’ve invited thoughtful arguments re. VP, here goes:

First, let me start by saying that I bought the s/w based on Fiji’s recommendations because I respect Fiji as a trader and a person of integrity, so this is not meant to undermine his review nor his reports of the product. These are my personal observations open for discussion. Second, as I’ve said earlier, not all s/w packages will fit every trader’s needs or personality and therefore some people will end up not using a s/w package for all kinds of reasons, no matter how good or bad the s/w actually is. From some of the posts above, people seem to get excellent results with VP and I think that’s great – all the power to you, keep on trucking! It just hasn’t been the case for me so far and here are the reasons why:

1) As I’ve already said in an earlier message, I’ve observed that the predicted high and/or low often reflect key points in the recent past (e.g. a pivot point, a fib, a fractal). The other predicted value is off in the direction of the trend that the market often just runs over as if it didn’t exist. Any trading system based on 4 hour or higher timeframes should already be telling you what the direction of the trend and the key s/r points are, otherwise you need to ask yourself how and why you’re trading in the first place. So far after 6 weeks of use, I fail to see the value-added VP provides in this regard.

2) For most people, if you want to make some serious pips with a lot less stress, you’re better of trading long-term (4H and higher) charts – this is especially true for beginners. You can find a number of threads on FF that talk about this; first and foremost if you haven’t already, go read the excellent “james16 chart thread” and if you have access to it, the numerous posts in the private forum by others on how this is a better way to trade unless you’re an experienced trader or need the excitement watching constant price fluctuations and enjoy staring at the computer screen a lot. In my mind, time and energy is better spent on finding, understanding and adopting a solid trading system that suits you and then add james16’s Price Action (PA) concepts to put your trading system on steroids rather than fiddling endlessly with VP trying to make it work for what will likely be fewer pips in the end. If you use 4H and higher timeframes, keep in mind that VP gives daily predictions, less useful for longer term plays. What about the 4-day MA predictions the s/w gives, you say? see point 6 below.

3) This is strictly a personal preference: I’m big on simple (as in simple trading systems, simple charts, etc because experience has taught me these tend to work best) and I like high probability trades. If this means only two to three trades a week but with lots of potential pips, that’s just fine by me. VP is too much of a hit and miss (certainly compared to other ways of determining range and trend) and trying to filter VP data to end up with only correct predictions has so far been a futile and anything but simple exercise, even for others as far as I can tell from previous posts.

General observations on VP as a product:

4) I spend a certain % of the net value of my trading accounts each year on s/w and have found that by and large there is no relationship between the value of the s/w and its cost. The “it’s expensive and therefore must be good” syndrome. This fools a lot of people. As an example, in another thread I mentioned a $57 Excel/VBA add-in for equity options that is excellent value for the money.

5) The deleted post made some valid points. Why doesn’t VP have a trial period? Why does the company have a no refund policy? The reason these questions are brought up time again is because we have as yet not seen any solid arguments as to why these policies need to be in place.

6) Another valid point from the deleted post: the VP 10-day MA chart looks erringly similar to a simple MA chart. Open a daily chart on your favourite charting software. Add a 10EMA to it and then a 2MA (any MA method will do, but try “smoothed” especially). Looks familiar, doesn’t it? If I showed you this and the VP 10-day MA chart side by side, on most days you’d have a tough time telling which is which. I have yet to see days when VP really goes against the expected trend by something it has calculated but that you’d be unable to determine using a solid medium to long-term trading system.

That said, of course someone could come along tomorrow and post something about VP that I totally missed and I’ll be glad (and grateful) to have learned something new and will change my views accordingly. In particular, I’m intrigued by drjoe4x recent post that out of 20 trades he's taken using VP, every single one was profitable (#139) and look forward to seeing how he’s done this. That’s what a thread such as this is all about.

Fiji: It’s your choice whether you just want to just delete this post since it doesn’t sing VP’s praises as you’ve done in the past or decide to have a non-condescending and non-confrontational discussion. I hope the latter because I noticed that a number of people - some of them quite knowledgeable - on this and some other “Fiji Reports” threads no longer post and that’s a shame because any further input on their part is now lost. Of course, you can discredit these people by saying they’re part of the 95% of the losers, etc. but on the assumption that you’re a better trader than they are, I feel that you’ve missed an opportunity to reach and educate them.

Ah, and Fiji, I apologize for being direct but feel I need to say this: before you get the urge to discredit my comments again by making false assumptions that my trading must be lacking somehow because of the points I made above, let me assure you that my balance sheet shows a healthy P/L at the end of each and every month - with or without VP and on some days, in spite of it.

Good trading to all,
BlueMeasure
  • #157
  • Jan 5, 2006 8:40am Jan 5, 2006 8:40am
Quoting fijitrader
I thought about spending a while bashing moneytec here but then it occurred to me it was not worth the trouble.

FT


With all the new stuff from all you fine folks in the new private forum, I have had my time cut a little short, as far playing goes.

When things settle down a bit, I'm going over to MoneyTec and stir things up.

I love to get things going, I will not mention FF or anyone in it.

Friends and family that know me, have always said, I could start a fire on water, if I put my mind to it. In the next while, watch the shit I'm going to get going over there.

If I get banned I don't give a damn, very very few have got anything constructive to say about anything.
I'll keep you posted when it starts.

Quinn
I started out with nothing, and I've got most of it left!
  • #158
  • Jan 5, 2006 1:20pm Jan 5, 2006 1:20pm
It seems that you met Fiji's criteria for posting negative comments about VP!

Quote
Posts from anyone who has some good technical reasons that invalidate VP on the basis of an intelligent technical arguement will be discussed and entertained here.

Fijitrader Today 03:02

If you wouldn't mind maybe mentioning your strategies or what you use to trade with less stress in the longer term. I like how that sounds. I read Bird Watching in Lion Country and I completely agree with the longer term psychology.

Maybe in this thread would be inappropriate, but I think it would be great to hear what you have to say. You mention that you use James16 charts is this all or is there anything else that you depend on.

Thank you all!
I think I can I think I can I think I can...
  • #159
  • Jan 5, 2006 2:50pm Jan 5, 2006 2:50pm
Hello VP users & watchers........

Thanks for the comments & observations......very much appreciated!

I will answer the questions raised since my last post as best I can. In this test I did not pay attention to the trend or the neural index. It has been my observation that the value may hit either the predicted H/L 'area' after the Asian market opens without regard to the trend, that is, if the trend is up, it may hit the 'high area' first, bounce downward toward the predicted 'low area' and then reverse to continue the up trend. I have said all along that I am trying to keep this trading system as simple as possible, and this is one of the ways I have done this both in testing and trading my demo acount.

originally posted by robrob:

just read your thread and it appears to pretty well describes the type of trading plan I've been searching for: a plan that would allow me to trade VP while I'm away at work and unable to monitor my trades ....i envision setting up potential trades after downloading the end-of-day data, making any changes when i get up for work at 3am, and then allowing the trades to run their course, given stop and profit limits...


Just a few questions:

1. are you looking at any other currency pairs other than the eur/usd?

2. are you trading off both the high and low, or only trading in the perceived
direction of the trend ?

3. have you found the 50 pip profit target to be a good number, or are you
finding that a higher/lower target produces better results?

As a new forex trader and new member here at the Forex Factory, I would greatly appreciate everyone's comments/suggestions/results who are also looking at these same and similar parameters....

I love being a part of this trading community, and appreciate the help, advice, suggestions, and observations that all are contributing..Thanks!

God bless...and good trading to all!

robrob

1. I am in the process of looking at 9 other pairs, please bear with me, I am travelling right now, internet access is sporatic, I'll post as I can

2. Both high and low, see the above comment

3. 50 is very arbitrary at this point. If I monitor a trade, I can often get much more on some currency pairs. 50 is good for eur/usd, but I have gained as much as 200 on gbp/jpy. I think the ATR should be the basis for determining a realistic T/P and S/L amount. I'll have moer to say about this later.

And finally a comment on Moneytec..........very hostile environment there, I will NOT waste my time over there, there is WAY too much good stuff and GOOD people here at FF!!!!!! I personally would rather use my time and energy on positive things, like VP testing & trading and using the new PF.
  • #160
  • Edited 8:05pm Jan 5, 2006 6:40pm | Edited 8:05pm
Quoting piotruslalka
If you wouldn't mind maybe mentioning your strategies or what you use to trade with less stress in the longer term. I like how that sounds. I read Bird Watching in Lion Country and I completely agree with the longer term psychology.

Maybe in this thread would be inappropriate, but I think it would be great to hear what you have to say. You mention that you use James16 charts is this all or is there anything else that you depend on.

Thank you all!
Hi piotruslalka,

Essentially, VP is not a trading system per se. You need to already have a solid trading system in place that you like and you're confident in and then use VP to boost your confidence in the signals your system generates. Also, in my view, one needs to be aware that with VP there is a bit of discretionary trading involved and this requires that you bring a certain amount of trading experience to the table. This is what leads me to say that while yes, you might be able extract some valuable information out of VP eventually, the amount of time and effort required is better spent elsewhere for the reasons cited - first and foremost ensuring you've got a solid trading system in place. Couple this with the amazing PA concepts james16 is putting forward and you're well on your way. james16's stuff just blows me away - how simple and yet powerful - and makes me wish I would have come across this info years ago already.

At the end of the day, we're in this game to make some pips; time is a limited resource and you have to decide how to best use it. How much time should you invest in product/concept A vs product/concept B? The sooner you know how much potential return you can expect in each case for time & effort required, the better. Everyone's answer will differ based on experience and personal preferences.

As far as trading systems are concerned, you're right, this is not the place to discuss this topic, but let me briefly say that there are a number of excellent free ones out there that will work just fine if you have the discipline to follow them (MA crossover and price breakout systems are common). I can provide you with a list if you'd like. My own favourite is a price breakout system that I can send you more info on if you're interested, just send me a PM

BlueMeasure
0 traders viewing now