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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #220,401
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:52pm Apr 7, 2010 2:52pm
Quoting Geppy
Yep, not at my home charts so I'm limited in my analysis but looks to be 50% fibo... nice!
Yep your right... I wanted to short this bear heavy but I have put so many long orders in USD/JPY and AUD/JPY that my risk model is yelling red at me
Traderdesk -
  • #220,402
  • Edited Apr 8, 2010 9:21am Apr 7, 2010 2:54pm | Edited Apr 8, 2010 9:21am
a)141.50 & 140.30 is safe
b) 138.50/60 & 137.50/60 at 50% safe
c) 136.50 is risky

as a conclusion as i say i will stop riding bear at a) then Sl BE+ for b)

then take my coffee

am done and let this last 2 entry going to 141.50 and 139.50 acordingly.....

good luck guys and catch u guys later next week...

g
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GY-H4.JPG Size: 70 KB
  • #220,403
  • Apr 7, 2010 3:24pm Apr 7, 2010 3:24pm
See A big rise to 151-153... in the long run...
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Doc8.doc   148 KB | 243 downloads
  • #220,404
  • Apr 7, 2010 3:36pm Apr 7, 2010 3:36pm
What would be a proper TF to observe possible divergences?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #220,405
  • Apr 7, 2010 3:52pm Apr 7, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting USD-Bear
What would be a proper TF to observe possible divergences?
Anything from 4hr upwards has proven pretty reliable for me, but I do look at the lower TFs too for signs of exhaustion, when price has rallied/dropped strongly.
  • #220,406
  • Apr 7, 2010 3:59pm Apr 7, 2010 3:59pm
I know I have been bugging everyone with the "Compression stuff", but if you look at daily chart with all EMA's thrown in, you see that we are getting into a HUGE compression at around 140ish....I think we have to wait for a while to see which side it is gonna spike after to get into the right trade....


Quoting grashid
a)141.50 & 140.30 is safe
b) 138.50/60 & 137.50/60 at 50% safe
c) 136.50 is risky

as a conclusion as i say i will stop riding bear at a) then Sl BE+ for b)

then take my coffee

am done and let this last 2 entry going to 141.50 and 139.50 acordingly.....

good luck guys and catch u guys later next week...

g
  • #220,407
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:21pm Apr 7, 2010 4:21pm
here is top but ıt looks like a descending triangle
base can be broken down in asian session
hope ı wont be surprised when ı get up in the morning
good trades
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #220,408
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:24pm Apr 7, 2010 4:24pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Anything from 4hr upwards has proven pretty reliable for me, but I do look at the lower TFs too for signs of exhaustion, when price has rallied/dropped strongly.
Thanks,

sorry to be off-topic, but would you consider this pattern a clear example of bearish divergence?

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #220,409
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:26pm Apr 7, 2010 4:26pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Thanks,

sorry to be off-topic, but would you consider this pattern a clear example of bearish divergence?

Attachment
Yes, but it played out on the spike lower.

A simple way to remember which divergence you're dealing with is to view the location of the divergence lines. If across the top of the PA and oscillator, then it's bearish, if across the bottom of the PA and oscillator, it's bullish. Be careful plotting lines across the middle of the PA; it should be plotted at the extremes of the candles.
  • #220,410
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:33pm Apr 7, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Yes, but it played out on the spike lower.

A simple way to remember which divergence you're dealing with is to view the location of the divergence lines. If across the top of the PA and oscillator, then it's bearish, if across the bottom of the PA and oscillator, it's bullish. Be careful plotting lines across the middle of the PA; it should be plotted at the extremes of the candles.
Ah I see, words finally get a meaning
Thanks a lot
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #220,411
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:37pm Apr 7, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Ah I see, words finally get a meaning
Thanks a lot
Here's a chart with 2 examples. First one is bearish divergence, (yellow lines). Second is a bit of a cheat, but i'm trying in indicate what bullish divergence would look like.

The bearish divergence btw has not played out yet and won't be considered complete until price reaches the orange box area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: diverg.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #220,412
  • Edited 4:54pm Apr 7, 2010 4:41pm | Edited 4:54pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Here's a chart with 2 examples. First one is bearish divergence, (yellow lines). Second is a bit of a cheat, but i'm trying in indicate what bullish divergence would look like.

The bearish divergence btw has not played out yet and won't be considered complete until price reaches the orange box area.

Attachment
How do you define "played out" (where the orange box is), I can see the down-move after the bearish divergence?
Is it the price level where the bearish divergence starts?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #220,413
  • Apr 7, 2010 4:51pm Apr 7, 2010 4:51pm
Quoting USD-Bear
How do you define "played out" (where the orange box is), I can see the down-move after the bearish divergence?
I look at it like this: (but am happy to concede there are other methods)

The angle of the 2 lines you plot must be in the same direction to be considered played out. So, in my example, if you draw a new line on the price from the low of the divergence across the chart so it's direction matches that of the oscillator.

Same chart, new line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I am conservative in my analysis of this target, so anything under 141 I would consider played out.

Search some of my recent posts from the last week for more examples.
  • #220,414
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:06pm Apr 7, 2010 5:06pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
I look at it like this: (but am happy to concede there are other methods)

The angle of the 2 lines you plot must be in the same direction to be considered played out. So, in my example, if you draw a new line on the price from the low of the divergence across the chart so it's direction matches that of the oscillator.

Same chart, new line.
Attachment

I am conservative in my analysis of this target, so anything under 141 I would consider played out.

Search some of my recent posts from the last week for more examples.
Sorry, same direction in this case is "down" or between 45 and 90 degrees.
The steepness of the line on the oscillator in your example is different from the steepness of the price (wite line).
What is the argument choosing the level between 45 and 90 degrees?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #220,415
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:10pm Apr 7, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Sorry, same direction in this case is "down" or between 45 and 90 degrees.
The steepness of the line on the oscillator in your example is different from the steepness of the price.
What is the argument choosing the level between 45 and 90 degrees?
The direction has to match, not the exact angle. The reason we get divergences in the first place is because the two lines are either side of the zero line, (if looking at an x y grid).

Divergence plays out when both lines are in the same grid pane.

Simply put, both lines have to be pointing in the same direction, either up or down.
  • #220,416
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:16pm Apr 7, 2010 5:16pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
The direction has to match, not the exact angle. The reason we get divergences in the first place is because the two lines are either side of the zero line, (if looking at an x y grid).

Divergence plays out when both lines are in the same grid pane.

Simply put, both lines have to be pointing in the same direction, either up or down.
All clear thank you very much, already searching
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #220,417
  • Apr 7, 2010 5:27pm Apr 7, 2010 5:27pm
hehe... although i mentioned 136 or so... in my last chart i showed that real support is somewhere in the upper 137/lower 138.

here it is:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=220320

Quoting Geppy
Here's a very simple daily chart....
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #220,418
  • Apr 7, 2010 6:11pm Apr 7, 2010 6:11pm
Quoting Scrat
hehe... although i mentioned 136 or so... in my last chart i showed that real support is somewhere in the upper 137/lower 138.

here it is:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=220320
Yeah, didn't mean to misquote you Scrat. My apologies.

I just covered about 40% of my shorts down here and am looking to put them back on at 142.60... it looks like we could see a little pop up on some of the lower time frames before a resumption lower.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #220,419
  • Apr 7, 2010 6:27pm Apr 7, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting Geppy
Yeah, didn't mean to misquote you Scrat. My apologies.

I just covered about 40% of my shorts down here and am looking to put them back on at 142.60... it looks like we could see a little pop up on some of the lower time frames before a resumption lower.
Hi Geppy,

Sorry I am at work and don't access to charts.Would you tell us kindly why 142.60?

It would be wonderful if attach a chart also.

Regards
Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #220,420
  • Apr 7, 2010 6:35pm Apr 7, 2010 6:35pm
Quoting mike1349
Hi Geppy,

Sorry I am at work and don't access to charts.Would you tell us kindly why 142.60?

It would be wonderful if attach a chart also.

Regards
Mike
Mike, for the last two days you've been sending me PMs asking why 14x.xx, why 14x.xx

I've explained it to you each time as politely and as well as I can.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
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