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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #220,381
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:35am Apr 7, 2010 10:35am
Quoting USD-Bear
Looks like you get another chance........
I hope so...
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  • #220,382
  • Apr 7, 2010 10:55am Apr 7, 2010 10:55am
I'm really p*ssed off.
I had a beautifull short position in GJ @ 143.75 when Malcom warned that a break of 152.75 in GU would mean 1.538
Than GB-data came => GU to 152.85 on that damn false move, me panicing and closing my GJ short @ 143.49

Now I got no feeling on GJ/GU anymore, so looking at shorting AUD/USD which looks understandable to me.....
I'm sure I'll return to GJ but for now I had it.

Still can't handle these circumstances....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #220,383
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:08am Apr 7, 2010 11:08am
Quoting USD-Bear
I'm really p*ssed off.
I had a beautifull short position in GJ @ 143.75 when Malcom warned that a break of 152.75 in GU would mean 1.538
Than GB-data came => GU to 152.85 on that damn false move, me panicing and closing my GJ short @ 143.49
While I am an advocate for considering others' advice, I don't think you should take it as absolute. I respect Q, Scrat and others on here and sometimes we disagree... example: I felt pretty alone in thinking we were going to make a huge run up to these levels a couple weeks ago. Q and Scrat challenged me on that and only made me become stronger in my convictions for it. I appreciate that they force me to analyze both sides but I don't allow it to sway me unless I really think I'm wrong.

Gotta listen to yourself first.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #220,384
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:09am Apr 7, 2010 11:09am
Quoting USD-Bear
I'm really p*ssed off.
I had a beautifull short position in GJ @ 143.75 when Malcom warned that a break of 152.75 in GU would mean 1.538
Than GB-data came => GU to 152.85 on that damn false move, me panicing and closing my GJ short @ 143.49

Now I got no feeling on GJ/GU anymore, so looking at shorting AUD/USD which looks understandable to me.....
I'm sure I'll return to GJ but for now I had it.

Still can't handle these circumstances....
Here's a simple chart for you....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #220,385
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:09am Apr 7, 2010 11:09am
Potential tweezer top here on the 15min
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  • #220,386
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:18am Apr 7, 2010 11:18am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Here's a simple chart for you....
Attachment
Thanks guys, just wondering the declining TL a OK.
The ascending TL I would have drawn it a little steeper with another start point.
Did you draw it without knowing the last bottom?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #220,387
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:22am Apr 7, 2010 11:22am
I just dont get why pound is being so bid up in NY sessions. makes me wonder...but i can smell big move coming soon - just need to get the direction right )
  • #220,388
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:23am Apr 7, 2010 11:23am
Quote
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/big_grin.gif bs

  • #220,389
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:33am Apr 7, 2010 11:33am
Quoting USD-Bear
Thanks guys, just wondering the declining TL a OK.
The ascending TL I would have drawn it a little steeper with another start point.
Did you draw it without knowing the last bottom?
Yea, the ascending trend line can be drawn differently, but it has been respected so far. It's just a guide really. We break this line as well as break the last low at 142.10 and shorts are back in business.
  • #220,390
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:37am Apr 7, 2010 11:37am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Yea, the ascending trend line can be drawn differently, but it has been respected so far. It's just a guide really. We break this line as well as break the last low at 142.10 and shorts are back in business.
Uncle Ben gonna talk in 1H, see whether can help us get near to 140 or not.
  • #220,391
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:39am Apr 7, 2010 11:39am
Quoting Geppy
While I am an advocate for considering others' advice, I don't think you should take it as absolute. I respect Q, Scrat and others on here and sometimes we disagree... example: I felt pretty alone in thinking we were going to make a huge run up to these levels a couple weeks ago. Q and Scrat challenged me on that and only made me become stronger in my convictions for it. I appreciate that they force me to analyze both sides but I don't allow it to sway me unless I really think I'm wrong.

Gotta listen to yourself first.
Marriage is good training for this ... when you think you are right ... your wrong!
  • #220,392
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:43am Apr 7, 2010 11:43am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Yea, the ascending trend line can be drawn differently, but it has been respected so far. It's just a guide really. We break this line as well as break the last low at 142.10 and shorts are back in business.
I'm agree, Geppy even is unable to close above 500 FL from last down move, so, shorts in play yet.

15m TF:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: geppy15m.gif Size: 21 KB
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #220,393
  • Edited 3:15pm Apr 7, 2010 11:55am | Edited 3:15pm
I predict a huge rise possibly 146 or 147 the range is big on the uptrend and as of now my channel says the trend is up...
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Doc7.doc   143 KB | 267 downloads
  • #220,394
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:56am Apr 7, 2010 11:56am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Yea, the ascending trend line can be drawn differently, but it has been respected so far. It's just a guide really. We break this line as well as break the last low at 142.10 and shorts are back in business.
Look who is talking, but I don't see it atm.
For some reason GU is almost back where it came from
UJ is responsible for current level of GJ, but it has done enough for a day when I look at its PA.
Maybe it needs more time....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #220,395
  • Apr 7, 2010 1:11pm Apr 7, 2010 1:11pm
Well I am seeing PA that is bias towards 141 and if broken then a quick touch at 140.50 for tomorrow. I would love to see PA in the next few days continue down to the 137 LTL.

At the moment I have no clue if it will break but if it does then I am riding it down...

Since I am collecting long positions in USD/JPY long term - yearly positions - I am favoring a medium term and long term bull trend to start to emerge with GBP/JPY. It should be in a consolidation mode over the summer and then the climb will start.... Dollar carry trades are being replace as we speak with yen carry trades....

For me a possible place where this downtrend can turn back up is around 138.40-60. If that breaks then 137 will be targeted with a possibilty of 136.50-70 area being touch for a nice wick...

Just a thought...
Traderdesk -
  • #220,396
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:04pm Apr 7, 2010 2:04pm
Here's a very simple daily chart. Notice the up trend line that should offer support along with a slight down trend line that was support, broken and then broken again to the upside and should now offer support once again.

I see the confluence of these two support areas being an ideal place for a short target and a potential place to begin buying. I know Q, Scrat and others are calling for 137/136.50 or so, but I don't see us sitting down there. If it were to happen it would be a quick scare spike down & bear trap. I think Q has mentioned this too.

Regardless, the support comes in somewhere around 138/138.50 and that's an area I'll have interest in. I wouldn't mind giving up 100 or so pips to get out there and ponder my next attack.

Geppy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #220,397
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:30pm Apr 7, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting Geppy
Regardless, the support comes in somewhere around 138/138.50 and that's an area I'll have interest in. I wouldn't mind giving up 100 or so pips to get out there and ponder my next attack.

Geppy
I agree with both your analysis and Q's. If the 138.5 breaks then I look at Q's target so for me it is more of looking how much of a retracement from the 138.5 level would I take before closing my short positions...
Traderdesk -
  • #220,398
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:38pm Apr 7, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting Pham
Do you want to long GJ this time? why?

if price breached upper wall of the channel weekly why not
good trades
  • #220,399
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:41pm Apr 7, 2010 2:41pm
Also the 138.50 area is a fibo retracement area... another support along with two trend lines....
Traderdesk -
  • #220,400
  • Apr 7, 2010 2:46pm Apr 7, 2010 2:46pm
Quoting Traderdesk
Also the 138.50 area is a fibo retracement area... another support along with two trend lines....
Yep, not at my home charts so I'm limited in my analysis but looks to be 50% fibo... nice!
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