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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #220,301
  • Edited 1:34pm Apr 6, 2010 12:48pm | Edited 1:34pm
This is my view of cable. 1.5250 was the area we saw a selloff in london session so im thinking price will consolidate around it and will start drigtinf lower at the end of NY session continuing into Asian and then in london too. Targeting 1.5080/1.51 but perhaps cable will go as low as 1.5 just need to wait and see what Asians bring tonight.

EDIT: sticking to the plan went short at 1.5252 with stop at 1.5274

Edit 2 : jumped a gun abit too quickly there i guess stilll looking to sell

edit 3 : shorting at 1.5276 stop at 95
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  • #220,302
  • Apr 6, 2010 1:30pm Apr 6, 2010 1:30pm
FOMC Minutes. . .



Throughout the FOMC meeting, participants have attested that the overall economic conditions of the world's largest economy are enhancing and improving, having the staff continuing to anticipate a moderate pace of economic recovery over the next two years, reflecting the accommodative stance of monetary policy.

Plus, the staff made forecast for the unemployment rate at the end of 2011 was about the same as in its previous levels, knowing that despite the slight easing of the deteriorated labor market, still this key sector remains on delaying a full recovery from the crisis to be witnessed.
While staff made modest downward adjustments to its projections for real GDP growth in response to unfavorable news on housing activity, unexpectedly weak spending by state and local governments, and a substantial reduction in the estimated level of household income in the second half of 2009.

However, the total PCE price inflation is projected to rise slightly above predicted core inflation levels throughout this year but than will edge down once again to the same rate as core inflation forecasted to be in 2011.

  • #220,303
  • Apr 6, 2010 1:35pm Apr 6, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting quecee5
FOMC Minutes. . .



Throughout the FOMC meeting, participants have attested that the overall economic conditions of the world's largest economy are enhancing and improving, having the staff continuing to anticipate a moderate pace of economic recovery over the next two years, reflecting the accommodative stance of monetary policy.

[size=2]Plus, the staff made forecast for the unemployment rate at the end of 2011 was about the same as in its previous levels, knowing that despite the slight easing of the deteriorated...
Deliberately opaque? or just very bad English?
  • #220,304
  • Apr 6, 2010 1:45pm Apr 6, 2010 1:45pm
So are we still thinking 137 ish is the place to get in on the ride up?

I got overconfident and took some big hits thinking we would get to 148 without a major drawback. No where near bullish yet although I am overall.

Guess we will see what asia does today. As was mentioned they are suffering some severe deflation and will probably keep buying yen. May go into some type of short during asia long during london ny strategy for this week.
  • #220,305
  • Apr 6, 2010 1:53pm Apr 6, 2010 1:53pm
activated.

Quoting Geppy
Had some shorts that I covered this morning. Now looking for 143.30 to enter short again...
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #220,306
  • Apr 6, 2010 2:06pm Apr 6, 2010 2:06pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Deliberately opaque? or just very bad English?
A bunch of mindless dribble and a lot of nothing right?
  • #220,307
  • Apr 6, 2010 2:14pm Apr 6, 2010 2:14pm
More FOMC minutes. . .

Friday’s non-farm Payrolls showed that the economy managed to add 162 thousand jobs over the course of March, compared with the previous 36 thousand jobs that were reported in February, but given the fact that unemployment remains high at 9.7 percent and tight credit conditions, where both will continue to suppress activities in the economy and stall the recovery process.

In addition, the housing sector conditions' remain challenging as the Fed anticipate that foreclosures are likely to “Remain Quite High” thus with unemployment, tight credit conditions, and diminishing wealth, the housing sector might need some time to recover from the worst financial crisis in decades.

As for the outlook for inflation, the Federal Reserve continues to project that inflation levels will remain subdued over the upcoming period, noting that the Mid-Term Inflation risks maybe to the upside but the overall inflation outlook remains “Reasonably Well Anchored” in the upcoming period. FOMC Minutes showed that “Recent data on consumer prices and unit labor costs led the staff to revise down slightly its projection for core PCE price inflation for 2010 and 2011”.

As for the economy’s outlook, Fed officials stated that the policy outlook is “Contingent” on Economy, but the recovery process will be curbed by elevated unemployment thus the fed made modest downward adjustments to its projections for real GDP growth in response to unfavorable news on housing activity, unexpectedly weak spending by state and local governments, and a substantial reduction in the estimated level of household income in the second half of 2009. The staff's forecast for the unemployment rate at the end of 2010 was about the same as in its previous ranging between 9.3% - 9.8 percent.
  • #220,308
  • Apr 6, 2010 2:18pm Apr 6, 2010 2:18pm
Basically, this means that NFP last Friday was all 'whoopla" and "hype" and we are in fact raelly no better off than we were last NFP = stagnant and it look like this will be the case until year end. . .

So, I see nothing to continue to dirve price up further esp. with little to no growth in the forseeable months to come. . .

Might see price start to slowly drift down and not sure 139 will be the stopping point this go ar'd. . .

Watching to see how it closes!
  • #220,309
  • Apr 6, 2010 2:38pm Apr 6, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting Geppy
Had some shorts that I covered this morning. Now looking for 143.30 to enter short again...
Another nice call ... I am begining to learn the discipline of patience.
  • #220,310
  • Apr 6, 2010 2:43pm Apr 6, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting plucker01
Another nice call ... I am begining to learn the discipline of patience.
Patience pills are a must have
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #220,311
  • Apr 6, 2010 2:43pm Apr 6, 2010 2:43pm
AJ knocking on the ceiling, UY knocking on the basement. Hmmmmm. Interesting.

Providing we close today under 143.8, I'm staying bearish.
  • #220,312
  • Edited 3:16pm Apr 6, 2010 2:47pm | Edited 3:16pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
AJ knocking on the ceiling, UY knocking on the basement. Hmmmmm. Interesting.

Providing we close today under 143.8, I'm staying bearish.
A/J made a new High!!!!..

SO THE u/j...

g/J... NOT YET...

?????

I AM NO gURU IN vOLUME...BUT CHECKOUT The last 20..so Bars.. 4 hrs..DAILY...

seems like a lot of Buying interest......

Watching the DAILY HAMMER or PIN BAR in the making....

Range Time...Bull/ Bear Flag.....
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #220,313
  • Apr 6, 2010 2:51pm Apr 6, 2010 2:51pm
the real support according to intra-month volume profile is @ 137.65/138.10. might even go as low as 136.55, but IF it dips below i think this rally party is over and we get back to work as usual... pip parachute... you know the drill.

i agree with q and geppy that price started to come down. i already opened some shorts, and will keep an eye on p.a. to see how it's going from now until london. however, when i look at the profile of the last rally (134.65 - 144.80), i see that distribution at this level (143.25) is not done yet. which means that any move down should be considered just another dip to be bought.

i have two possible scenarios for current configuration:
- either move down very soon to 139.50 area and then up again to 143.30 to complete distribution... maybe even rally higher...
- or slowly ranging up here, around 143.30, until distribution is done and then drop for good.

here's the chart.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #220,314
  • Apr 6, 2010 2:59pm Apr 6, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting Scrat
the real support according to intra-month volume profile is @ 137.65/138.10. might even go as low as 136.55, but IF it dips below i think this rally party is over and we get back to work as usual... pip parachute... you know the drill.

i agree with q and geppy that price started to come down. i already opened some shorts, and will keep an eye on p.a. to see how it's going from now until london. however, when i look at the profile of the last rally (134.65 - 144.80), i see that distribution at this level (143.25) is not done yet. which means that...
  • #220,315
  • Apr 6, 2010 3:25pm Apr 6, 2010 3:25pm
Quoting Geppy
activated.
what is your TP and SL??

Ub
  • #220,316
  • Apr 6, 2010 3:35pm Apr 6, 2010 3:35pm
Quoting ubaidahsan
what is your TP and SL??

Ub
SL not in... target open, probably shooting for 139 initially but I'll close if I see it getting ready to retrace again in order to lock profits and get short again.

I understand that's zero help.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #220,317
  • Apr 6, 2010 3:54pm Apr 6, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting ubaidahsan
what is your TP and SL??

Ub
135.80. . .
  • #220,318
  • Apr 6, 2010 4:56pm Apr 6, 2010 4:56pm
Good morning all,

This morning i found this on my chart 6H;

TP1= 143.67 (if TP1 + Spread over, go to TP2)
TP2= 144.00 (if TP2 + spread over, go to TP3)
TP3= 144.53 (if TP3 + spread over, go to TP4)
TP4= 145.38

expired till 16.00____07 April 2010__GMT 0

Good luck, have a nice trade.
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  • #220,319
  • Edited 6:50pm Apr 6, 2010 6:40pm | Edited 6:50pm
Quoting Ekadaya
Good morning all,

This morning i found this on my chart 6H;

TP1= 143.67 (if TP1 + Spread over, go to TP2)
TP2= 144.00 (if TP2 + spread over, go to TP3)
TP3= 144.53 (if TP3 + spread over, go to TP4)
TP4= 145.38

expired till 16.00____07 April 2010__GMT 0

Good luck, have a nice trade.
Can I ask what's your TA logic behind these targets? why would we go back up there when we have made a lower low and a low high on a daily basis?

Just want to understand your thoughts or is this a signal service you are following? I see divergence lower on daily and the 1hr chart.

Now what is concerning is we look to be a bit OS on the 4hr chart but nothing ranging wouldn't take care of to get it out of OB status and align it with the 1hr and daily sell signal. . .

To further this analysis we have also close below the daily 5 sma for the 1st time in a week so I'm just curious regarding your reasoning behind it possibly going all the back above the NY high which it was rejected. . .

Price was also sold in Asia and NY yesterday for a bear move why would they buy it back at these levels when it looks we had distribution at 145, 144.70 and 143.50 area?

I would think we would head lower close to 140.44 1st stop and then 139 next stop before we see a move back up for an even lower high. . .

Your thoughts please. . .
  • #220,320
  • Apr 6, 2010 6:45pm Apr 6, 2010 6:45pm
if you have been following Martin Armstrong,

here is his latest essay (from prison) http://www.scribd.com/From-the-Hole-7/d/29424807
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