Dislikedlove ur analysis Jason, you go beyond just the technicals ..... very insightful ....I always read your thread ur call on USD/CAD based on SSI was simply great
Ignored
Too bad we didn't hit parity ...maybe next time . Over the past 3 years or so, SSI has worked really well on USD/CAD from what I have seen. So I tend to watch it the most.
USD/CHF over the past couple of days is an interesting case. Positioning yesterday was at 4.28. Quite a large number of traders long. Typical SSI trade would have been to go short; however, the long term trend on USD/CHF chart is up:
http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/4327/usdchf.jpg
The long positions made sense to me looking at the trend and we were right at the trend line. Sometimes the majority of traders are right! Plus Fitch downgrading Portugal's debt was great timing for this trade. Major props to our traders
SSI's kind of boring at the moment. Everything is within the -3/+3 range. USD/CAD at 1.92 and USD/CHF down to 2.80 on what is probably profit taking. So we'll just sit back and patiently wait for another trade to setup.
On a non-SSI fundamental note, today's announcement by Fitch to downgrade Portugals debt keeps the EUR as one of the weakest currencies in my eyes. On the strong side, I'm watching the USD (risk aversion), AUD, CAD, and NZD due to economic strength.
Pairs to watch: EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/USD, EUR/NZD, and maybe AUD/USD if you're playing the progression of lower highs on the daily chart.
And how long will CAD/JPY continue to move sideways? We're right at the top of a 10 month range: