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The Dance

  • #461
  • Apr 6, 2010 3:34am Apr 6, 2010 3:34am
Quoting Iamfx
Even though your trade has a very nice movement did'nt the retrace exceed the 2 bar rule?
Hi Iamfx,,, the "two bar rule" is MOSTLY for the trades taken off the 10 EMA. For trades against the 35/50 lines, as long as the bars are fairly large, it's worth the risk most of the time. The issue with the 35/50 lines is when you get price that "creeps up" on them with several progressively smaller bars,,, THAT is when you really need to watch it, and if the lines have separated quite a bit, say around 15 or more pips after a larger move. THOSE TWO situations you need to be careful about.

But trades like you see with Juneman's entry are really solid entries usually.
  • #462
  • Apr 6, 2010 3:39am Apr 6, 2010 3:39am
Quoting eclayf
Hi Iamfx,,, the "two bar rule" is MOSTLY for the trades taken off the 10 EMA....
OK thanks for clearing that up.
Cheers
We are all One. Be present. Be the Observer
  • #463
  • Apr 6, 2010 6:05am Apr 6, 2010 6:05am
Hi Clay, sickened by the e-bay stuff, noticed that his home town is in Lithuania which would make litigation a real bitch I would think. Anyway in your post 461 it seems a little counter-intuitive to me, but no doubt right. I would have thought that slowing bars approaching the 35/50 lines would be suggesting change of opinion rather than long aggressive bars approaching forcefully. However I have to say that studying your system and working live with it (small OANDA account) it pays to just learn from your experience and not try and pre-judge. Which just brings me to say that I really appreciate all your fine work and effort and the more work I put in the more I have to study. Thanks a lot.

Alex
  • #464
  • Apr 6, 2010 7:00am Apr 6, 2010 7:00am
what a day of misses for me. yet another no touch no trade example. so near yet so close.
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  • #465
  • Apr 6, 2010 7:06am Apr 6, 2010 7:06am
As per Eclayf's request in the original post, i'm going to try and get these charts up "live".

This one is slightly left-field for me. I'm trying to be a little less cautious and I don't normally trade this pair but it's been trending well and has a reasonable spread. The touch is on the 35 but has a psych level near by and the 50 is close enough to add extra comfort for the trade. The approach candle for the touch was 11/12 pips as well so all in all, it's not a perfect entry but it's in the rules.

Stop loss is 10 pips plus spread.
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  • #466
  • Apr 6, 2010 7:13am Apr 6, 2010 7:13am
Quoting Trotty
As per Eclayf's request in the original post, i'm going to try and get these charts up "live".
Trotty,
Could you add which pair this is, price scale and TF? Thanks!
  • #467
  • Apr 6, 2010 7:22am Apr 6, 2010 7:22am
Quoting kostas1
Trotty,
Could you add which pair this is, price scale and TF? Thanks!
Sorry Kostas, I rushed the chart so I got the touch. It was AUDUSD on M15.

Right, there's a reason why i'm such a cautious trader and this is a good example of why perhaps. The trade went into profit by a few pips and then returned to going south again and took my small stop out. With the ability of hindsight, it looks a little messy in the approach but it did have H1 confirmation as H1 was bouncing off 10ema with a good angle. I still think that all in all, it was a reasonable trade to take but maybe I should just stuck to my cautious ways. That's me down for the day now so looking for a good trade to at least get me back on track. Hurumph.
  • #468
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:35am Apr 6, 2010 8:35am
Quoting Trotty
Sorry Kostas, I rushed the chart so I got the touch....
Although price is now going back in the direction of this failed trade, it's a good example of why we should keep stops small where we can. If i'd used a 20 pip stop, for example, it'd have still taken it out and i'd have made double the loss for now really good reason. A 25 pip stop would have kept me in the trade but there has to be limits and 25 pips is far too big for this strat.
  • #469
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:42am Apr 6, 2010 8:42am
Quoting Trotty
...This one is slightly left-field for me...
Hi Trotty, here is my analysis "after the fact" of why that trade failed, but it is also how I would have been thinking at the time based on P/A.

Hope this helps.
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  • #470
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:45am Apr 6, 2010 8:45am
To all those who have emailed and PM'd me about the thief on Ebay, thank you all for your concerns and input. I will be contacting Ebay later about this thief to see if at least he can be stopped for a while, but my experience with a thief is he will just scurry under another rock and keep trying to steal from there. They can be and usually are very hard to stop.

Not sure what more I will be able to do about him/her, but we'll see. Now, on to trading The Dance.
  • #471
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:47am Apr 6, 2010 8:47am
Quoting eclayf
Hi Trotty, here is my analysis "after the fact" of why that trade failed, but it is also how I would have been thinking at the time based on P/A.

Hope this helps.
Hi Clay.

Thanks again for the feedback and yeah, those were some of the reasons that I had not to take it but decided that the pros outweighed the cons. Hey, you live and learn and hopefully live to fight another day!

Regarding the MA cross, the 35 crossed above the 50 just before the trade, I didn't take this as either a positive or negative sign, just the norm really as you would expect the 35 to be on top of the 50 in a strong trend.

It failed but not by a whole heap. The Price is now back above my entry point. It's just one of them really. NEXT!

Once again though, thanks for your tireless work in analysing our trades - the good and bad!
  • #472
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:52am Apr 6, 2010 8:52am
My pleasure Trotty, but I really AM being selfish in doing all this. THE MORE I do it, the BETTER I get AT IT.
  • #473
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:54am Apr 6, 2010 8:54am
Quoting eclayf
My pleasure Trotty, but I really AM being selfish in doing all this. THE MORE I do it, the BETTER I get AT IT.
And getting a sense of pride and satisfaction in helping other traders make a living and maybe make themselves rich one day.

Absolutely nothing wrong with that my friend
  • #474
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:55am Apr 6, 2010 8:55am
Short on Eu anyone? Valid-ish entry???
  • #475
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:59am Apr 6, 2010 8:59am
Ebay report against the thief filed. Now we'll see if they do anything. If not, at least people will be getting a decent system to trade with and in the documents it talks about FF, so perhaps it will lead some here to learn as well.

Gotta make the best of a bad situation.

Thanks again for all the input and concern.
  • #476
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:02am Apr 6, 2010 9:02am
Quoting eclayf
Ebay report against the thief filed. Now we'll see if they do anything. If not, at least people will be getting a decent system to trade with and in the documents it talks about FF, so perhaps it will lead some here to learn as well.
They'll be seething mad when they realise that they paid good money for something that is all here for free though!

Wish i'd taken that EU touch, up 18 pips now.....
  • #477
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:08am Apr 6, 2010 9:08am
Quoting eclayf
Ebay report against the thief filed. Now we'll see if they do anything. If not, at least people will be getting a decent system to trade with and in the documents it talks about FF, so perhaps it will lead some here to learn as well.

Gotta make the best of a bad situation.

Thanks again for all the input and concern.

Good work Clay. I was thinking about this strategy and how its hard to post live trades because they can happen so fast. Its great to have it on FF but wouldnt it be even better for people who are trading this strategy to chat to each other live and be able to talk about trades as they are happening? If Clay and other people agree why can't there be an IRC channel or have some kind of live chat on a website?
  • #478
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:13am Apr 6, 2010 9:13am
Quoting Juneman
Good work Clay. I was thinking about this strategy and how its hard to post live trades because they can happen so fast. Its great to have it on FF but wouldnt it be even better for people who are trading this strategy to chat to each other live and be able to talk about trades as they are happening? If Clay and other people agree why can't there be an IRC channel or have some kind of live chat on a website?
I'm happy to investigate it, maybe initially on a trial basis Juneman. You're in the UK and trading full-time like me I think? I trade 8.00 to about 5.00/5.30 gmt.

However, i'd still want to keep this thread up-to-date at the same time. Clay has put a great deal of effort into setting it up and it's only just started rocking. As beneficiaries of that work, we're duty bound to make sure it stay on the first page at FF.
  • #479
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:21am Apr 6, 2010 9:21am
I would not worry too much about the thief, we all know that you could give two different traders trading rules and a plan to follow and you will get two completely different results.

If someone is searching ebay for trading systems they really have a lot to learn about trading.

Clay has provided a strategy that if followed overtime can provide some serious results. I have been following this thread from the begining and will admit that on paper looks very easy to implement. For whatever reasons (all of which i believe are emotional) my results have not been that stellar...until last night. I had been taking many losses (very small losses) last night I noticed a setup that looked exactly like one of the setups that are in the manual...I took it!!!

Needless to say that one trade has wiped out all of my losses and then some. After I closed out that trade I sat back and thought about what had just happened and realized that this is exactly what Clay has been telling us. I asked myself why cant i just look for these kinds of trades? why do i get too anxious and force trades that do not work out? Although I had followed the rules on all of the trades the losses were not A+ setups and probably should have been disregarded, but they were not huge losses and were all recouped after one A+ trade.

This had done something for my confidence that no other trading strategy has accomplished in the past...i guess you could say it was my...ah ha...moment.

Sorry for the long post but i wanted to say thank you to clay for everything you have provided and your on going input and support to the benefit of others, it is truley inspirational.

One other thing...for those of you who have not read "Think and Grow Rich" I highly recommend. I read the book a long time ago and just finished it again...and in my opinion the principles of that book are at work right here in this thread.

Good job Clay you are living proof, on a daily basis of the principles that Napoleon Hill laid out in the book.

Thanks again
Mike
  • #480
  • Apr 6, 2010 9:21am Apr 6, 2010 9:21am
Quoting Juneman
Good work Clay. I was thinking about this strategy and how its hard to post live trades because they can happen so fast. Its great to have it on FF but wouldnt it be even better for people who are trading this strategy to chat to each other live and be able to talk about trades as they are happening? If Clay and other people agree why can't there be an IRC channel or have some kind of live chat on a website?
Hi Juneman,

I think that would be great, i do something similar with the other strategy i trade, i meet up with a few friends i have made online and we trade together, analysing our trades, personally, its really help me improve however maintaining the thread would still be ideal
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