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  • #81
  • Edited 12:47pm Apr 5, 2010 4:49am | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting pipmutt
6th sense about what, direction? ......
Absolutely no sarcasm intended, I was hoping you would elaborate on HOW you applied the Soros quote to your exits.

How far do you let your profits run? Are your exits based on technical levels? Trailing SL based on ATR? Trailing SL on fixed number of pips? Targets around key (S/R?) zones? Scaling out using a combo of these? Do you move your SL to breakeven, and if so, when? Do you have different exit strategies for different market types (trending, ranging,...?), and if so, what criteria do you use to determine these market types? Or different strategies for different timeframes?

You've been trading for 14 years, I've been struggling until just recently; I was hoping to learn something methodologically tangible from somebody who's genuinely experienced. Simply saying "it's about trade management", "it's not how often you win, but how much" and "you can't predict direction" is all rather unhelpfully vague, don't you agree? If you'd prefer not to share your secrets, then of course that's your prerogative, but please say so plainly. Or is your strategy just some kind of intuitive guesswork that's too difficult to explain in a forum post?
  • #82
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:50am Apr 5, 2010 4:50am
Quoting Hedginghog
OK! So getting this thread back on the rails didn't last very long did it! Oh well, maybe another time.

Happy trading to all.
Oh I don't know, I think they were pertinent questions and on-topic, the OP seems to be having problems managing his trades. but if you don't want to answer that's ok.
  • #83
  • Apr 5, 2010 5:20am Apr 5, 2010 5:20am
Quoting hanover

Simply saying......"you can't predict direction"
Sorry, when did I ever state direction is unpredictable? The point I was making was that trying to predict direction is unreliable, it doesn't provide any sort of reliably exploitable 'edge' in my opinion, it's results are going to be mediocre at best from what I've seen. Sure, for practical and psychological reasons we need something to give us a directional bias in order to place a trade and it seems reasonable to base that on some sort of probability, but that's as far as it goes.

Developing a convoluted system to try and predict direction is no more reliable or accurate than something very basic such as a breakout or trend line. I appreciate you, and others, have spent (and continue to spend) considerable time and effort looking for and trying to develop such a system so it might be inconceivable for you to even consider you might have been on a bit of a wild goose chase. Or maybe you haven't and you'll come up with something which traders since time immemorial haven't be able to come up with!

So where does that leave us? By process of elimination and assuming there actually isn't anything which can reliably predict direction (a reasonable assumption in absence of anything to support the contrary) what are we left with?
  • #84
  • Apr 5, 2010 5:44am Apr 5, 2010 5:44am
Quoting pipmutt
what are we left with?
A discussion about the way I phrased four insignificant words in my last post, or so it would seem.

When you're willing to discuss trading specifics, I'm ready to listen.
  • #85
  • Apr 5, 2010 5:49am Apr 5, 2010 5:49am
Quoting hanover
When you're willing to discuss trading specifics, I'm ready to listen.
Priceless.

I never thought it would be Hanover who'd push the button but...i'm done here.

Pip, would be nice to keep in touch. Enjoy the rest of your holiday.

Dan
  • #86
  • Apr 5, 2010 6:06am Apr 5, 2010 6:06am
majority of the time discussing on forums is like banging your head on a cleverly disguised brick wall
  • #87
  • Edited 6:20am Apr 5, 2010 6:09am | Edited 6:20am
Quoting pipmutt
So where does that leave us? By process of elimination and assuming there actually isn't anything which can reliably predict direction (a reasonable assumption in absence of anything to support the contrary) what are we left with?
Hoping that the market is unsure as you are about the exchange rates next move, and therefore positioning yourself to take advantage of that? Either that or you're cutting loses short and letting winners run, but you'd still need some kind of 'edge' to make it profitable.

EDIT: Actually, the 1st guess would still require one to predict that the market would be unsure/likely to range, and if I remember correctly you said you don't 'predict'. NVM, I quit. How can one trade without 'predicting' anything? :/

@Hanover- Absolutely hilarious, Ive seen you suck arse with people of much more questionable character than Pipmutt. What tipped you over the edge?
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #88
  • Apr 5, 2010 6:11am Apr 5, 2010 6:11am
Quoting AstonDan
Priceless.

I never thought it would be Hanover who'd push the button but...i'm done here.

Pip, would be nice to keep in touch. Enjoy the rest of your holiday.

Dan
You too Dan, we're off to one of those city farms in a little while, go and pat a few sheep!



Hanover, I'm happy to discuss anything you like.
  • #89
  • Apr 5, 2010 10:32am Apr 5, 2010 10:32am
I usually used to trade 2 mini lots at a time and set 10 pips stop loss which is 2% of my equity. Now, I have decided to trade 1 mini lot with 20 pips stop loss which did work today in my favor, thanks to you guys for all your comments. If I can't make $10, I can never make a hundred.
  • #90
  • Apr 5, 2010 11:22am Apr 5, 2010 11:22am
Quoting Pixie
I usually used to trade 2 mini lots at a time and set 10 pips stop loss which is 2% of my equity. Now, I have decided to trade 1 mini lot with 20 pips stop loss which did work today in my favor, thanks to you guys for all your comments. If I can't make $10, I can never make a hundred.

Is your stop based on the dollar amount you're prepared to risk or is it based on market analysis?

-
  • #91
  • Apr 5, 2010 11:29am Apr 5, 2010 11:29am
Quoting pipmutt
Is your stop based on the dollar amount you're prepared to risk or is it based on market analysis?

-
That's a good question. I'd have to say I follow the market and try to recognize the trend. However, since I'm new to forex, most of the time I'm wrong.
  • #92
  • Apr 5, 2010 11:36am Apr 5, 2010 11:36am
Quoting Pixie
That's a good question. I'd have to say I follow the market and try to recognize the trend. However, since I'm new to forex, most of the time I'm wrong.
Right, I just wondered how you decided on that 20 pip stop, it sounded a bit arbitrary.

You weren't wrong in the competition and demo though, so what's changed, is it just you're scared of losing some money?
  • #93
  • Apr 5, 2010 11:37am Apr 5, 2010 11:37am
I don't think Hanover said anything disrespectful or anything...

I think he is just to the point where he is tired of vague explanations...

I guess to sum up Pipmutt's approach is...

If I have a bias I will take a trade... if that trade works out and the market does what I thought it would then I'll take another trade in the direction of my bias given the opportunity risking more than before. If I lose a trade then lose another one I will cut down my risk and become conservative.

So to sum it up I think this would work:

Knowing when to be a lion and when to be a turtle is the key.

Nonspecific as that is I think it sums it up well.
  • #94
  • Apr 5, 2010 11:54am Apr 5, 2010 11:54am
Quoting pipmutt
Right, I just wondered how you decided on that 20 pip stop, it sounded a bit arbitrary.

You weren't wrong in the competition and demo though, so what's changed, is it just you're scared of losing some money?
I'd have to say yes to that but it's acceptable as long as I can win more than I lose. But so far, it has been the other way around.
  • #95
  • Apr 5, 2010 12:10pm Apr 5, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting Deusomega
I don't think Hanover said anything disrespectful or anything...

I think he is just to the point where he is tired of vague explanations...

I guess to sum up Pipmutt's approach is...

If I have a bias I will take a trade... if that trade works out and the market does what I thought it would then I'll take another trade in the direction of my bias given the opportunity risking more than before. If I lose a trade then lose another one I will cut down my risk and become conservative.

So to sum it up I think this would work:

Knowing when to be...
That pretty much loosely describes it. The idea is to limit risk and maximize reward. That may sound like logical common sense but it's something I know Hanover doesn't believe is reality, he mentioned it here. No guts, no glory - no pain, no gain etc.

I think there are lots of different ways to approach it but a change of priorities and a shift of focus is required. So instead of thinking about direction, obsessing over how to predict it as accurately as possible, and believing it will provide an edge and make us successful (the 'norm' if you like), I think it's important to realize predicting for what it is, unreliable at best. We all know we're not in control of where price goes, once we place a trade we rely on our analysis and prediction to produce profit and we're at the mercy of the market to decide our fate. Does that really sound like something you'd want to risk money on?

I wasn't offended by anything Hanover said, forums are pretty impersonal places so it's hard to take anything personally.
  • #96
  • Apr 5, 2010 12:17pm Apr 5, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting Pixie
I'd have to say yes to that but it's acceptable as long as I can win more than I lose. But so far, it has been the other way around.
You can see what I'm getting at though, you made virtual money in a competition and in demo, what changed? The market? The strategy? You?
  • #97
  • Apr 5, 2010 1:06pm Apr 5, 2010 1:06pm
Quoting pipmutt
I wasn't offended by anything Hanover said, forums are pretty impersonal places so it's hard to take anything personally.
Thanks, I appreciate it. I didn't mean any disrespect. I apologize if it came across that way.

I too hope that you enjoy your holiday.
  • #98
  • Apr 5, 2010 4:07pm Apr 5, 2010 4:07pm
Quoting pipmutt
Hanover, I'm happy to discuss anything you like.
Would you be willing to start a thread on trade management, and share some of the techniques that can be used to limit risk and maximize reward? Maybe post a chart or two, and explain how, when and why an experienced trader might move his stoploss, for example?

Given that there are very few threads dedicated to exit strategies, it should make for a refreshing and instructive read. Hopefully other experienced traders will share their ideas, also.
  • #99
  • Apr 5, 2010 10:36pm Apr 5, 2010 10:36pm
Hi Pixie

As a trader, fear and greed is always around you. There will be time when you will constantly adjust your stop loss so that you will not get stop out hoping to see the price reverse and move in your favour. This is the number one killer for new trader.

Personally, once I set my stop loss and limit, I will not adjust them anymore. I understand that there will be time when you will be tempted to exit your profit early as you are afraid that the market might take it back but this is where you are going to be a trader with low risk reward ratio.

In order to have a better entry and exit, you need to learn how other trader do it and then practice them on your demo account although you do not feel the kick anymore after trading live.
  • #100
  • Apr 6, 2010 1:23am Apr 6, 2010 1:23am
Quoting hanover
Would you be willing to start a thread on trade management, and share some of the techniques that can be used to limit risk and maximize reward? Maybe post a chart or two, and explain how, when and why an experienced trader might move his stoploss, for example?

Given that there are very few threads dedicated to exit strategies, it should make for a refreshing and instructive read. Hopefully other experienced traders will share their ideas, also.

There are probably hundreds of different practical ways to achieve the same goal, all it takes is a bit of lateral thinking. If someone doesn't have the capacity or adaptable mindset to think laterally then step-by-step instructions complete with diagrams is unlikely to help very much, in fact it could do more harm than good!

Besides, when's the last time you saw anyone publish specific details of how to make money in this business?

I've got nothing against discussing the subject in general terms though, but I think we've already done that haven't we?
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