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The best way to trade is one trade a day

  • #41
  • Apr 3, 2010 2:15pm Apr 3, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting Intensity
The frequency of the trade is important but so is the relative profit.
the "1 win : 1 loss ratio" could be a 0.005% gain or a 150 % gain. In this latter case, you lose one time and it's over.
money management will not be part of my topic. i believe any decent trader will know how much to risk such that he doesnt blow his acct. 70% like i quoted was just an figurative number. your %% and ur RR ratios will be different. THE ISSUE IM TRYING TO SAY HERE IS once u have a %% and RR ratio IN YOUR FAVOUR, the more u trade the more u win because u can NORMALISE YOUR % THE WAY CASINOES DO IT. so stop all the selective reading and get the main idea.

lets do it this way. i ASSUME i have a system that gives 1:1 RR with 55% win rate. better now? more realistic now? applying the same idea. u should trade as much as possible to normalise your win rate such that it will be in your favour in the longggggg run.
  • #42
  • Apr 3, 2010 2:18pm Apr 3, 2010 2:18pm
Quoting 7bit
I think the real meaning of the term "overtrading" is that you are deviating from your system and your rules to get more trades. Your system won't give you a valid signal right now but you want to (or must) trade *now* at all costs, so you are bending your rules (lower timeframes, other sessions, unfamiliar instruments) until you have your "signal".
it happens to the greediest of us and the market as a teacher will teach those people very well. that will be called trading not by your rules. overtrading becomes too generic a term
  • #43
  • Apr 3, 2010 2:23pm Apr 3, 2010 2:23pm
Quoting Sim
70% strike rate and 1:1 RR means everything, it means 7 out of 10 trades win with the same risk:reward

not sure if you're just misunderstanding the posters' intentions bro but no worries
70% strike rate could mean losing for 30trades then winning the nex 70. it could mean u lose 300 trades in a row and then win 700. in terms if MM i suggest all posters here to use __% they are comfortable with. BUT that % has to be of your current acct and not your starting acct. basically its impossble to blow your acct this way.
  • #44
  • Apr 3, 2010 2:24pm Apr 3, 2010 2:24pm
this has became so circular now..
  • #45
  • Apr 3, 2010 3:53pm Apr 3, 2010 3:53pm
Quoting 7bit
R:R and strike ratio are all that is needed to describe the profitability of a system. It can be directly translated into the profit factor, which is sum(profit)/sum(loss). The above mentioned 1:1 with 70% would be an extraordinary profitable system with a profit factor of 7/3 = 2.333

If I had such a system i would be millionaire already.
Profitability might be where the problem comes from.
Profitability alone doesn't mean anything if you don't take in account other factors.
For example, the mentioned system would be worthless to me if it had to be applied to a yearly chart. Or if it had a drawdown of 85%. etc etc.

I'm so sorry I can't really explain myself because of the barrier language/etc but what I mean is that 1:1 with 70% is not enough data to determine if a system is usable or not.
  • #46
  • Apr 3, 2010 3:59pm Apr 3, 2010 3:59pm
well we can understand past the language barrier bro but the convention is somewhat different to your opinion...not wrong or right but remember i said from a quant perspective rational assumptions are made
  • #47
  • Apr 3, 2010 4:04pm Apr 3, 2010 4:04pm
Quoting Sim
well we can understand past the language barrier bro but the convention is somewhat different to your opinion...not wrong or right but remember i said from a quant perspective rational assumptions are made
I wouldn't bet on conventions when 99% of traders are losers

And my opinion is simply that your way to calculate a profitable system doesn't take enough factors in account. It's certainly very useful but it can still kill your account.
  • #48
  • Apr 3, 2010 4:10pm Apr 3, 2010 4:10pm
it's not even my way lol i was just telling u the norm so to say

obviously it doesnt guarantee OR mean anything... but then neither does a total analysis of past performance. still no guarantee of the SAME results ...
  • #49
  • Apr 3, 2010 4:13pm Apr 3, 2010 4:13pm
We're running in circle, let's just end it here lol


Back on topic, my first trades of any day are usually the most important ones. If they are profitable the day has a very good chance of being profitable. Why ? Certainly because I use a trend following system.

mmmh.... Maybe I should implement a 1 trade per session rule...
  • #50
  • Apr 3, 2010 4:16pm Apr 3, 2010 4:16pm
maybe split test in visual with ur account history may help?
  • #51
  • Apr 3, 2010 4:22pm Apr 3, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting Sim
maybe split test in visual with ur account history may help?
MyFxbook will only give me daily charts, I guess I'll have to do it through excel.
But I've just noticed a funny thing : virtually 80% of my losses since Jan 1 happened on Thursdays... haha I know what to do now : divide tradesize by 10 on that day.

Thanks for the helping intent Sim even after our discussion, you're a great guy (or woman)
  • #52
  • Apr 3, 2010 4:29pm Apr 3, 2010 4:29pm
no worries as blunt as i am my motive here is only to help strangely :s a subliminal one is probably avoiding the last uni work of my life lolll,,

WoW@ 80% of losses :o

Maybe go through charts and see what is different about that day regarding ur strategy? ATR different? More market traps?
  • #53
  • Apr 3, 2010 4:34pm Apr 3, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting Sim
no worries as blunt as i am my motive here is only to help strangely :s a subliminal one is probably avoiding the last uni work of my life lolll,,

WoW@ 80% of losses :o

Maybe go through charts and see what is different about that day regarding ur strategy? ATR different? More market traps?
My guess is that it's a personal problem. I "burn out" on thursday due the trading pressure and I go in a tilt mode. The pattern is frightening : it happens every 2 thursdays.
Haha I didn't know I was so sensitive but the numbers are right in front of me... Can't deny them.
  • #54
  • Apr 3, 2010 4:37pm Apr 3, 2010 4:37pm
lmao ur a softie at heart, go join the army to improve ur trading
  • #55
  • Apr 3, 2010 4:40pm Apr 3, 2010 4:40pm
Quoting Sim
lmao ur a softie at heart, go join the army to improve ur trading
Great idea but it's kinda harsh...
I'm developing my autotrader and given that I don't really know how to program it's taking some time but after 4 months it seems like most of the bugs are finally out. You can't imagine how destabilizing it can be to see your robot launch infinite buy orders for $1... Your trading station freezes and you don't know what to do to stop the slaughter...
  • #56
  • Apr 3, 2010 4:46pm Apr 3, 2010 4:46pm
woooow hahaha well any EA i go live with starts with micro lots live for that purpose,,im paranoid yes

and for ones that are proving good, man trade copiers have been some equity killers...

kept copying one or two live trades to all accounts then closing at next tick then re-opening :o

lost tons of money just from spread which kept multiplying haha
  • #57
  • Apr 3, 2010 4:51pm Apr 3, 2010 4:51pm
Quoting Sim
woooow hahaha well any EA i go live with starts with micro lots live for that purpose,,im paranoid yes

and for ones that are proving good, man trade copiers have been some equity killers...

kept copying one or two live trades to all accounts then closing at next tick then re-opening :o

lost tons of money just from spread which kept multiplying haha
hahaha I've also had reversal that continues to reverse... a real spread eater
Well today I use micro lots to test new EAs but I didn't think of that when I started
  • #58
  • Apr 4, 2010 2:55am Apr 4, 2010 2:55am
slower way to lose?


I have no idea all i know is since 2010 I have made profits every month and some days over 100 pips. My losses are capped. so I know the most I can lose each session, which i love as well. No 100 pip losing days either. Each to his own. But i am loving this way. Trade to live not live to trade.

Good luck.
  • #59
  • Apr 4, 2010 5:31am Apr 4, 2010 5:31am
Quoting Intensity
My guess is that it's a personal problem. I "burn out" on thursday due the trading pressure and I go in a tilt mode. The pattern is frightening : it happens every 2 thursdays.
Haha I didn't know I was so sensitive but the numbers are right in front of me... Can't deny them.
Thursdays are typically when unemployment numbers come out, and they tend to shake things up a bit...might want to see if that is a factor, too.
  • #60
  • Apr 4, 2010 5:38am Apr 4, 2010 5:38am
Putting a meaningless number to decide how many trades you should take, makes no more sense than having a random 50 pips stop loss on every trade.
Measure twice, cut once
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