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Ashraf Laidi "calls"

  • #41
  • Mar 26, 2010 6:28am Mar 26, 2010 6:28am
March 25, 2010 18:12 ET: GE-US 10 YIELD SPREAD at 3-YR LOW. Compare these TWO CHARTS:
On February 11, we bolstered our case for $1.32 EURUSD based on this chart http://chart.ly/eqbf3x highlighting our negative outlook for the German-US 10 yield differential, which stood at -0.50%, while EURUSD was at $1.38 at the time. Today, the GE-US spread has worsened to -0.73% http://chart.ly/ faea8w and EURUSD dropped to $1.3270. Readers of this website were constantly reminded of our negative outlook for the German yield disadvantage being instrumental in guiding EURUSD towards $1.30 and $1.28. Looking ahead, we expect the spread to reach to -0.90s and help break EURUSD below $1.30.


Yep !! I have to admit that the guy nailed it again

He messed up on some other stuff but his "predictions" about E/U are like anything from 95 to 99% correct.

I'm a 90% technical 10% fundamental trader so I still can't tell if he has being lucky in his analysis or if he really can sustain his predictions over time.

A lot of things about his life and his expertise dont match but again I have to say that the guy was spot on
  • #42
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:47pm Mar 31, 2010 4:47pm
Few more hours and Mr Laidi prediction of 1.32 E/U will be confirmed or busted.

I would say that even if it don't get quite there he was pretty accurate since last week we went as low as 1.3265.

He is claiming 1.28 as early as the end of April .......hummmmmm...lets see.
  • #43
  • Apr 2, 2010 5:06am Apr 2, 2010 5:06am
just heared on bloomberg he will talk there today, but havent catched the time.

EDIT:
got it they talk in a few moments about the probably discount rate hike on monday.
  • #44
  • Apr 2, 2010 2:43pm Apr 2, 2010 2:43pm
It seems that Mr Alaid's predictions on E/U hitting 1.32 by march end was busted.

But lets be fair... it got pretty close and nobody will be right 100% all the time.

Actually I'm kind of admiring this guy more and more because if you compare him to other brokers annalists out there the difference is enormous !

Get any forex "commentator" or "educator" ( as they like to be called) out there and you will notice that they are always hedged in their predictions, most of what they say doesn't help much or is pure BS.

Mr Alaidi at least have "cojones" enough to come in public, specify some targets and stick to it. He made some "bobos" in the past but nobody can have it 100% all the time.

That said......lets see if he has being lucky or if he really can sustain this kind of accuracy over time .
  • #45
  • Apr 2, 2010 2:56pm Apr 2, 2010 2:56pm
why you waste your time? do you think there is anybody who can time the market 100%? the beauty of the market you dont need to time the market 100% to make money.. anyone who atempt have a big ego problem and miss the point and he/she is going to get crazy.
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #46
  • Apr 2, 2010 2:58pm Apr 2, 2010 2:58pm
If he keeps missing his "calls" he won't be on TV much longer because the mystique will wear out (like all the rest). Why are people so excited about a guy who makes a wild guess with no money on the line? If the EURO had reached the target that he projected would you start worshipping him or something? I don't understand it....could someone help me with this one?
  • #47
  • Apr 2, 2010 3:02pm Apr 2, 2010 3:02pm
When you say things like "his predictions".....are you trying to make him out to be a sage or some type of mystic FX demi god? Would you hang on to his every word for your own trading livelihood. Would that be your strategy? He is a good analyst and has an interesting insight to the market, but he isn't a trader. Do you guys understand the difference?
  • #48
  • Apr 2, 2010 3:19pm Apr 2, 2010 3:19pm
I liken FX analysts to a coach on a sports team. They may know the Xs and Os. They know all the fancy language...they can tell you the history of the game; they just can't actually "play" the game. They may be Phil Jackson but they are not Michael Jordan. Drawing Xs and Os is one thing; but it is all about execution. A well skilled trader or player has mastered the art of pulling the trigger and executing the game plan. A coach or analyst has no idea how to pull the trigger, but it is OK to listen to what they are seeing or forecasting based on a host of variables.
  • #49
  • Edited 3:41pm Apr 2, 2010 3:24pm | Edited 3:41pm
Quoting Platypus
Again I'm not here to bash Mr Alaidi, but lately he is throwing so much Sh*** in the air that something will end up sticking.

He is basically talking about things that he DOES NOT KNOW for sure so.......like all of us...poor humans.....he is right when he is right and wrong when he is wrong
Just like wisdomfx in the commercial section! Gives a 50pip buffer for so called power levels then after the fact posts a screenshot of him and his Sydney connect gathering all the pips!
  • #50
  • Apr 2, 2010 3:32pm Apr 2, 2010 3:32pm
Quoting Troikaone1
I liken FX analysts to a coach on a sports team....

Sooo damn true,, I had 5 or more coaches in ball all my life, only one who was any good was an actual player himself...man he had game too...so young but actually knew how to coach because of the firsthand experience. Played GB ball, rugby and footie (soccer)
  • #51
  • Apr 2, 2010 5:12pm Apr 2, 2010 5:12pm
Quoting vulture
why you waste your time? do you think there is anybody who can time the market 100%? the beauty of the market you dont need to time the market 100% to make money.. anyone who atempt have a big ego problem and miss the point and he/she is going to get crazy.

I'm Analyzing this guy vulture....it is sort of a pet project . Read my first post....
  • #52
  • Apr 2, 2010 5:59pm Apr 2, 2010 5:59pm
IMO the first whiff of a two way analysis covering any outcome is enough to warrant a joke of an analyst...IMO there's no way you can be right if you're banking on both outcomes,,because you're not really taking a stab at anything :S:S
  • #53
  • Apr 3, 2010 10:42am Apr 3, 2010 10:42am
Quoting Sim
IMO the first whiff of a two way analysis covering any outcome is enough to warrant a joke of an analyst...IMO there's no way you can be right if you're banking on both outcomes,,because you're not really taking a stab at anything :S:S
I like to apply my trading stile to other situations on life, and as a trader I aim to see the markets the most unbiased way as possible. Thats why I'm here after more than 20 years .

I will praise the guy when he is right and critique him when he is wrong. If you call this a joke.....well !! I don't know him long enough to output any conclusive opinion.
  • #54
  • Apr 3, 2010 10:53am Apr 3, 2010 10:53am
it's one thing being unbiased another being paid to be unbiased, essentially equating to being paid to do nothing
  • #55
  • Apr 3, 2010 11:24am Apr 3, 2010 11:24am
Are you suggesting that I'm getting a kick back to hedge opinions about this guy?........

You are insane!!.....
  • #56
  • Apr 3, 2010 11:58am Apr 3, 2010 11:58am
lmaooo

yes hehehe
  • #57
  • Apr 3, 2010 12:33pm Apr 3, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting Sim
lmaooo

yes hehehe
.....you don't know the Platypus my friend.
  • #58
  • Apr 3, 2010 1:00pm Apr 3, 2010 1:00pm
Fail thread is FAIL.
  • #59
  • Apr 3, 2010 1:27pm Apr 3, 2010 1:27pm
^

.......
  • #60
  • Apr 6, 2010 7:00pm Apr 6, 2010 7:00pm
Mr Laidi announced on his twitter that he will no longer post his calls about interest rate in public but will continue to do it in private

hummmm.......

If I can remember well he screw up on the last 2 "predictions" he did...so....I wonder if he is embarrassed .
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