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  • #1,321
  • Apr 1, 2010 6:50am Apr 1, 2010 6:50am
Less than an hour to unemployment claims. Then PMI a little later. If both are US negative we'll see 3650 today IMO of course.
  • #1,322
  • Apr 1, 2010 7:00am Apr 1, 2010 7:00am
Quoting Scotty B
Less than an hour to unemployment claims. Then PMI a little later. If both are US negative we'll see 3650 today IMO of course.
Hmmm if we break 3470 we may hit 3440 and even 3380 next IMO.
.
  • #1,323
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:16am Apr 1, 2010 8:16am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Not quite what I had in mind.
ARE YOU THREATENING ME???


YOU WILL GIVE ME TP!!! TP FOR MY BUNGHOLE!!!

hehe *scratch*
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #1,324
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:30am Apr 1, 2010 9:30am
Well, we will see if there is any follow through with this move up (flag break). That dip took out 20% of my position (guesstimated entry), now I wait. Volume came in on that pin bar seen on the 15m. It came in as price fell, filling bids. I'm trading somewhat blind, since I'm away from home base.
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  • #1,325
  • Apr 1, 2010 10:39am Apr 1, 2010 10:39am
I'll jump back in the EU trade with a Short market order @ 1.3552, Stop @ 1.3620, TP 1.3420.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #1,326
  • Apr 1, 2010 11:09am Apr 1, 2010 11:09am
Lol, who's just seen USD/CHF? A lot of people got long (or, most likely closed their shorts) very quickly.

New York, April 1. EUR/CHF
and USD/CHF have just surged, raising the clear prospect that the SNB have finally taken a fresh stand against CHF strength. More to come
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #1,327
  • Apr 1, 2010 11:11am Apr 1, 2010 11:11am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Lol, who's just seen USD/CHF? A lot of people got long (or, most likely closed their shorts) very quickly.

New York, April 1. EUR/CHF
and USD/CHF have just surged, raising the clear prospect that the SNB have finally taken a fresh stand against CHF strength. More to come
probably intervention mixed with lots of stops and open long triggers.
  • #1,328
  • Apr 1, 2010 11:51am Apr 1, 2010 11:51am
Quoting Scotty B
Well, we will see if there is any follow through with this move up (flag break). That dip took out 20% of my position (guesstimated entry), now I wait. Volume came in on that pin bar seen on the 15m. It came in as price fell, filling bids. I'm trading somewhat blind, since I'm away from home base.
Scotty... are those multiple sell orders to gradually close out your position the further price falls?
  • #1,329
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:07pm Apr 1, 2010 1:07pm
The fact that you lost is not important, we all lose from time to time. I bet that you don't know why you have lost. You based on trade on rumours, imagining the future before the London session, then you entered after it even the session screamed BUY for euro and cable. Tomorrow the markets will be quiet as the europeans will not work.
I don't think that this is healthy order flow trading.
  • #1,330
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:47pm Apr 1, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting Sauron
The fact that you lost is not important, we all lose from time to time. I bet that you don't know why you have lost. You based on trade on rumours, imagining the future before the London session, then you entered after it even the session screamed BUY for euro and cable. Tomorrow the markets will be quiet as the europeans will not work.
I don't think that this is healthy order flow trading.
I lost barely a thing, about 28% of a trades worth of risk (If I was risking 1% a trade I would have lost 0.28%), and the two pending orders that would have been triggered (had I not cancelled them before the US news) would still be in play now had I been very confident they would have been winners; Id rather cut a trade than not have high confidence in it.

The reason I bailed on the trade I entered I explained in my last post, the SNB was buying euros, and even if they were not going to buy more, the mere mention of it is enough to put an invisible wall to the EU's downside.

I'm not saying what I'm doing is perfect, but everything I did was in real time, and I didn't lose my arse... not today anyway.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #1,331
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:59pm Apr 1, 2010 1:59pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Ahhh, figured it out. For some reason OpenOffice wont let me paste the text text from Oandas interface... Ive just tried it on notepad and this text box and it does work. Cheers.
It is a limitation of Java and Oanda uses Java for it's interface. Sounds like you're on the right track now, just remember to use the keyboard commands when dealing with Java.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #1,332
  • Apr 1, 2010 4:52pm Apr 1, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting eurotrash
Scotty... are those multiple sell orders to gradually close out your position the further price falls?
Yeah, It's just a 5% position reductions/5pips. Keeps me in if I'm slightly wrong and if I'm totally wrong, I save about 50% in losses if every sell stop is hit. I'm looking to hold this trade to the 1.37ish zone, then I'll begin looking for a short entry to take the ride to 1.2 or below.
  • #1,333
  • Edited 1:13am Apr 2, 2010 12:28am | Edited 1:13am
EU appears to be flagging out again today. We've had two strong up days now and EU will often give three followed by a pullback. Orderflow..OI took a dip over the last couple of days on EU Futures. It's will be interesting to see what the change in short to longs will be on the next COT. I'm suspecting the drop in OI is short covering. This could be a sign that sentiment is changing and the retracement will continue. I'm sure the market will remain net short, but I suspect that many of the players are in for the long haul, so a retracment won't hurt them too much.

My only concern is the bearish flag forming on the daily. Many of you might start scratching your heads and wondering why I'm all of a sudden talking so much about flags...It's not nessisarily about the pattern to me, but it's interesting to note where volume comes in/goes out in these formations. They happen everywhere and to me hold a deeper meaning.

From an OF perspective, I simply see them as an accumulation phase followed by a stop squeeze. They also do a good job of showing market intention/sentiment. In a bull flag for example, you have an intentional wave of buying followed by strong support seen in the actual flag formation. The flags tell you there is still strong buying interest (value) and further breakouts are likely. This is why I said to wait for your shorts last night until the pattern decayed. I say the same thing tonite. Price will most likely pullback some, but I suspect there will be hard bids to catch anything to severe. I'd sure like to see that daily bearish flag decay. If today is another up day and we get a good "Three white soldier" pattern, or a good 'flag pole,' followed by a corrective consolodation (flag) next week, I'll be even more confident in that 1.37 number. My stops are set to a little better than BE, and so I simply wait.

BTW..I see the flag pattern the same way on all time frames for all you short term yahoos. It's not the pattern that makes it work though, but the story behind the orders that make it up.

In the days to come I'll be presenting more PA/pattern thoughts in light of OF.

Edit..Charts added just to make the point. If you see a 'flag,' don't ignore it, if you do the flow could kill you.
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  • #1,334
  • Apr 2, 2010 5:31am Apr 2, 2010 5:31am
Just to clarify..In my latest posts where I say that strong bids will hold price up, I don't mean just limit buys. I see bids as market buys that begin getting issued as well. It is market orders after all that make prices move in the first place. The idea is to trade when immeadiacy is the thing every one is after. It is 'fresh' speculative market orders coming into a market to act on old market orders and sitting limits that really get the blood pumping.

In most (but not all cases), it is fresh or new buying or selling that flows into the market that holds the most information. It is these orders that cause trends and stops to be tripped ect. In most cases, these market orders are dead giveaways as to what will happen next. Whats the differance between a bullish flag and a huge pin bar that forms after price has made a huge move up? What do the pin bars that end up 'working' ussually form into on the smaller timeframes?

Since I'm obviously not great at FA, I like to at the very least know if important news is coming out on a given day, read orderflow to see what the market is thinking, and trade accordingly. This is what my macro approach consists of in a nutshell. I gain my entries still at a micro level via OFA, and try to trade what I understand in the bigger picture. Am I guessing? You bet. I'll say it again..It's not the patterns, its the orders. If I don't understand the orders in the bigger picture in the way they are lining up, I'll get stopped out.
  • #1,335
  • Apr 2, 2010 5:41am Apr 2, 2010 5:41am
If anybody is following along here at this very moment..Go look at the one minute chart EU and watch what happens. What is the sentiment right now on that small scale? What's most likely going to happen. What does this formation say about orderflow and future values?
  • #1,336
  • Apr 2, 2010 6:24am Apr 2, 2010 6:24am
Quoting Scotty B
If anybody is following along here at this very moment..Go look at the one minute chart EU and watch what happens. What is the sentiment right now on that small scale? What's most likely going to happen. What does this formation say about orderflow and future values?
"Big" spike up followed by flag-ish consolidation... profit taking and fading shorts? Then buying at the lower prices? I'd say it will be going up.

/edit

Another spike up. I haven't got this order flow stuff down as I'm still in the beginningish part of Harris' book and haven't read Lyons etc, but it looks like demand is strong at this level.
  • #1,337
  • Apr 2, 2010 10:15am Apr 2, 2010 10:15am
Obviously for every buyer there needs to be a seller. If price is going down I'm thinking sellers are more agreesive. Of course at some point in order for a bottom to be put in buyers have to become more aggressive.

But I first look for a change in price - to the upside - to consider whether buyers are getting aggressive. I didn't see that in the overnight period and I most definitely didn't see it so far today. Europe and US banks closed and whats left of the European session ended means weakness should continue till the week's end close.

My advice for next week is to let the market lead the way and not the other way around.

Oh and it looks like from a glance at the calendar Monday is a bank holiday in EuroZone.
  • #1,338
  • Apr 2, 2010 1:47pm Apr 2, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting eurotrash
I haven't got this order flow stuff down as I'm still in the beginningish part of Harris' book
I just broke down and got my hard copy finally after reading the draft online for quite a while - nice to have. Looking forward to really digesting this stuff and seeing how much it helps. This should have been my first book on trading. What a joke and waste of money most of the others are.
  • #1,339
  • Apr 2, 2010 2:57pm Apr 2, 2010 2:57pm
Quoting FXSurfer
I just broke down and got my hard copy finally after reading the draft online for quite a while - nice to have. Looking forward to really digesting this stuff and seeing how much it helps. This should have been my first book on trading. What a joke and waste of money most of the others are.
Whats the title of the book? Sounds like a good read.
  • #1,340
  • Apr 2, 2010 2:59pm Apr 2, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting M-H Trader
Whats the title of the book? Sounds like a good read.
Trading and Exchanges by Larry Harris. I can't believe how uninformative and noobish my other forex books are compared to this.
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