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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #220,041
  • Apr 1, 2010 11:34am Apr 1, 2010 11:34am
Quoting thadakman
That was awesome! My USD/CHF I had for 1.0515 (which started to look bad) hit my profit target at 1.06 and my order for GBP/CHF this morning at 1.60 hit my profit target at 1.61, whoohoo!

I only wish I changed my orders on EUR/CHF to 1.44, as they would've filled; these I'm still underwater with but it would've wiped out most of the loss...

Anyone underwater on the GBP/JPY trade? If so, it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to hedge long USD/JPY going into that job report tomorrow.

I really had that gut feeling that we'd get some intervention...
well i was going counter trend on that one building my position gradualy, i cought almost all EURCHF move but as you imagine my average position was not from the bottom although my last addition to the longs was not far off. anyways thats 140pips for me...in these times you wish you had much bigger position but then again you never know when its going to happen so Im happy anyways.... need some pippage to cover my GJ short )
  • #220,042
  • Apr 1, 2010 11:41am Apr 1, 2010 11:41am
Quoting lexazver
need some pippage to cover my GJ short )
Yeah, that helped out a lot! lol... I'm comfortable as long as we don't break the 1.47's... that seems to be the area that'll throw the long-term bearish view on this pair out the window.... I am a little concerned with overall JPY weakness, especially with everyone wanting to ride the USD/JPY to 95-100 now! If any sort of risk aversion returns to the market though, the Yen crosses should sell off pretty quickly... with DOW getting near huge technical as well as psychological resistance near 11,000, I think we may finally get an overall sell-off and boost the USD and JPY (not the USD/JPY cross).
  • #220,043
  • Apr 1, 2010 11:42am Apr 1, 2010 11:42am
Quoting pkimnyc
lol. like i said before... go with the flow.
Yeah, thanks for the advise
  • #220,044
  • Apr 1, 2010 11:48am Apr 1, 2010 11:48am
Greatest song ever...
Inserted Video
  • #220,045
  • Apr 1, 2010 11:59am Apr 1, 2010 11:59am
Quoting special0nefx
Greatest song ever...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olpkHhBQ_zY
You need to get out more.
  • #220,046
  • Apr 1, 2010 12:16pm Apr 1, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
You need to get out more.
  • #220,047
  • Apr 1, 2010 12:29pm Apr 1, 2010 12:29pm
The rocket is fueling its stage two booster rockets for reentry into bubble not burst yet economy atmosphere, will it be able to make it?
Attached Image
  • #220,048
  • Edited 12:55pm Apr 1, 2010 12:40pm | Edited 12:55pm
Congrats to Geppy and all who called this move 500-600 pips ago. I for one didn't think it would break 139.30 area so easily but goes to show you what do I know. . . When the market has an agenda there is no stopping PA even when you spend hours on hours charting.

So as it goes and like my good friend PK says "follow the money" and go with the flow. . .
So congrats to all who took the trade and stood steadfast. . .

After this move I was somewhat puzzled at this move so I started charting to try to make some sense out of this move on higher TF's (weekly). . .

Below is my weekly chart going into next week and now I can see quite clearly our options. . .

So here it goes. . .

1) Looking at the now swing high/low established off 132 we can see price has traveled 38.2% retrace of the entire move from 163.05-132.013. . .

2) We can also see that price has also traveled 61.8% retrace off the smaller swing high/low from 150.80-132.013 in 3 waves. . . which could be correctional (or just an abc correction with an ext. c wave) or the start of a IM wave but looks odd IMO. . .

3) We can also see from the channel that currently we are still in a bearsh trend until we see a weekly break-out and close, and test of the break-out above this descending channel. . .

Summary:

A break-out of this channel with a weekly close, a test of the break-out and we go straight to 151 and I don't see much standing in the way of that if this happens. . .

A weekly close within the channel should send price back to 139.20/30 area however seence we didn't see much resistance there on the weay up can't really see it providing so I'm going to say minor support at 137.50/138 area a close below that would send price back to 132 with some minor support. . .

A break below that and we all know the story. . .

Therefore how the week end will be very import for GJ moving forward into Q2 and we will know exactly where the market intends to take price soon.

My own opinion that we will see lower price much lower than many are predicting but we'll let the data/PA speak and I will go with the flow as my good friend PK say. . .

I'd like to discuss this chart so I welcome your comments
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly gj chart.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #220,049
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:07pm Apr 1, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting quecee5
Congrats to Geppy and all who called this move 500-600 pips ago.
Thanks bud!

I think your analysis is spot on. The reality is that the weekly still isn't bullish and we need to wait for confirmation before screaming that the trend has reversed. If we fail your channel I see two options:

1. A retracement from this most recent move up followed by another push higher through the weekly channel

2. A complete failure at these current levels and resumption of the overall downtrend.

Either way, I see us at a great point here as I feel the long-term direction will be clear and we can trade the overall trend. Enough of this counter trend trading!

I'd hope someone else can chime in on potential fundamentals as I'm no expert. I'll be flat the rest of the week and observing post NFP to see what kind of direction to expect for the coming weeks.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #220,050
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:07pm Apr 1, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting quecee5
Congrats to Geppy and all who called this move 500-600 pips ago. I for one didn't think it would break 139.30 area so easily but goes to show you what do I know. . . When the market has an agenda there is no stopping PA even when you spend hours on hours charting.

So as it goes and like my good friend PK says "follow the money" and go with the flow. . .
So congrats to all who took the trade and stood steadfast. . .

After this move I was somewhat puzzled at this move so I started charting to try to make some sense out of this move on higher...
March 17th I initiated a long view with a 2 month timeframe. immediately after had 3 down days. I did not expect it to go up this fast but I guess I got it right - as you can see where we are now. Not a perfect call but it was in the right direction. I earned my 10+V. Not sure what to make of this move going so fast up. This temporarily leaves the long term bear scenario out of the picture unless we drop right back down but I don't think that will happen.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #220,051
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:08pm Apr 1, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting quecee5
Congrats to Geppy and all who called this move 500-600 pips ago. I for one didn't think it would break 139.30 area so easily but goes to show you what do I know. . . When the market has an agenda there is no stopping PA even when you spend hours on hours charting.

So as it goes and like my good friend PK says "follow the money" and go with the flow. . .
So congrats to all who took the trade and stood steadfast. . .

After this move I was somewhat puzzled at this move so I started charting to try to make some sense out of this move on higher...
Nice Q,
I also waiting the breakout at the purple TL down there. Let see how the story going. For now enjoy all the song i found ...thanks
  • #220,052
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:11pm Apr 1, 2010 1:11pm
I think it possible to go over 145.00 but I'm not making any call on that. I will reassess view after this weekend. GL pound traders!
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #220,053
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:44pm Apr 1, 2010 1:44pm
Thanks for the analysis Q.

The only thing I could add is the pretty big bearish divergence on the 4hr TF now. Overbought too.

chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr diverg.gif Size: 19 KB


Unfortunately, at this stage TA, (and FA), can be consigned to the bin, but it all unravels in time.

Out of interest, I don't suppose you could post your reasons for thinking we'll see much much lower? EW?
  • #220,054
  • Apr 1, 2010 2:04pm Apr 1, 2010 2:04pm
Took a short @ 143.4
If this is consolidation, retrace or turn around I do not know.
I just feel that the rr is acceptable right now with tight SL @ 143.80
If it goes down the drain i'll look at higher levels to repeat.
If not closed before news tomorow i'll prob. move SL to BE or close it at market price.
I know countertrend trading is not adviced by seniors here but that's what I mostly do.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #220,055
  • Apr 1, 2010 2:04pm Apr 1, 2010 2:04pm
I still see 148 by tomorrow or monday. From there consolidation and some type of normal ranges continuing on from before the feb sell off.

I expect the economic bubble from stimulus is working its way through the system by this point and before it pops it will even get higher.

I traded my outlook all week even when I wanted to doubt it so I am leaving my longs to go into the news tomorrow with a health sized sl because that was my plan and so far my plan has been good to me.

I agree that the downtrend is still in play but we have to let the stimulus bubble work its way through before we can deal with that.
  • #220,056
  • Apr 1, 2010 2:07pm Apr 1, 2010 2:07pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Thanks for the analysis Q.

The only thing I could add is the pretty big bearish divergence on the 4hr TF now. Overbought too.

chart
Attachment

Unfortunately, at this stage TA, (and FA), can be consigned to the bin, but it all unravels in time.

Out of interest, I don't suppose you could post your reasons for thinking we'll see much much lower? EW?
Well I'm still in a debate with some cohorts that we are in Wave 5 from the move started from 250. . . with wave 4 ending at 163. . .

We will know very soon if we get rejected from here. . . I see a trip straight back to 132 and if we break then say hello to new lows. . .

If we close above 143.60'ish area then I see 151 and higher. . . and we could be in a true ABC correction up and a low has been put in at 132. . . This week is going to make it clear where we head next. . .

The tale-tale sign will be in the asia and london session 2nite. . . If both sell this rally going into NFP then we know more than likely the Q1 price pump has ended for now. . . Typically when price it pumped like this (straight up) with no retraces it falls just as hard. . .

The big question I have is why didn't they take price right on up over this cluster resistance with a daily close above it? That would have surely set the tone for a new uptrend. . .

comments welcomed. .
  • #220,057
  • Apr 1, 2010 2:18pm Apr 1, 2010 2:18pm
Quoting quecee5
The tale-tale sign will be in the asia and london session 2nite. . . If both sell this rally going into NFP then we know more than likely the Q1 price pump has ended. . .
I recall the last pre-NFP Asia & London sessions - trading was in time-wasting mode over a 40 pip range. Given the immense manipulation with which they got it to the upper 143.6 TL, I'd expect them to keep it here. Aside from that reasoning, Asia's PA is usually pathetic and insignificant towards the defining price movements. And let's not forget, London nor NY won't have full trader participation given the holiday. I also take from that that Monday & Tuesday will be needed for all the cards to be played - let's be cautious of fake out moves. (ie., a lower than 200K number might be cause for rally on friday, but sold after the weekend.)
  • #220,058
  • Apr 1, 2010 2:19pm Apr 1, 2010 2:19pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Took a short @ 143.4
If this is consolidation, retrace or turn around I do not know.
I just feel that the rr is acceptable right now with tight SL @ 143.80
If it goes down the drain i'll look at higher levels to repeat.
If not closed before news tomorow i'll prob. move SL to BE or close it at market price.
I know countertrend trading is not adviced by seniors here but that's what I mostly do.
I have a 200 pip sl on my longs you are welcome to a hundred or so of those before we go back up.

I don't really see the price moving much till right before nfp, Asia probably isn't going to break 1.46 but they may.

Probably right before news it will jump 80 pips, news will be a little less than forecast as adp says but it will be positive numbers and not a loss, thus validating that the "stimulus works" yea! hahaha.

Lots of political reasons for why this is all happening which is no surprise. The entire bubble burst served its purpose to allow discounted massive consolidation of corporate stocks, that leg of pretty well done, now its on to prime the consumer pumps for one more credit fleecing of Merica and then quickly back to massive televised contrived chaos and global political "solutions".

I am a firm believer that things on the global stage never happen for a reason, they happen because they were planned that way. GBP may be a long time coming down, London has 2012 Olympics, the Pope is coming for a visit to the Queen for the first time since anyone could ever remember.

Jpy will need some more devaluing for it to continue to be competitive as an industrial producer. By the time the next flight from risk trade works out in this pair we will be trading at 10:1 most likely and who knows what else will be in play.

Anyway, I would never dare to believe I can understand the big plan but sometimes you can get a pretty good whiff of what way the wind is blowing if you refuse to understand the world the way it is presented to you.
  • #220,059
  • Apr 1, 2010 2:28pm Apr 1, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting quecee5
Well I'm still in a debate with some cohorts that we are in Wave 5 from the move started from 250. . . with wave 4 ending at 163. . .

We will know very soon if we get rejected from here. . . I see a trip straight back to 132 and if we break then say hello to new lows. . .

If we close above 143.60'ish area then I see 151 and higher. . . and we could be in a true ABC correction up and a low has been put in at 132. . . This week is going to make it clear where we head next. . .

The tale-tale sign will be in the asia and london session 2nite....
Thank you.

The problem I have is there have been literally hundreds of occasions this past 4 days where price looks to have peaked; plenty of high volume spikes resulting in shooting stars etc on multiple TFs. BUT, it's as if GS/BoJ bots then spring into action taking price higher still, on lower volume. And why the heck wouldn't those same 'bots' simply wait for any retrace and enter at better prices. The buying has constantly been at the highest premium. Makes me think 'someone' thinks even these prices are cheap.

Back to 132 sounds lovely. I just can't see it atm.

In summary, I have no clue.
  • #220,060
  • Apr 1, 2010 2:40pm Apr 1, 2010 2:40pm
Sure they could swoop the price down and nock out a bunch of positions but the real money is in returning the markets to favorable again and letting this stimulus bubble play out for the consumers and not just the stock consolidation.

They have vast sums to collect from all the people desperate for loans and capital since the tightening.

Actually I think it was fairly civil of them to nicely rise it up the way they did. You could see by the PA even when it was falling that they were just setting it down on a ma to build up some steam before moving again.

They could have really raced it all over and made it impossible for anyone to trade at all had the chosen to.
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