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The Dance

  • #401
  • Apr 1, 2010 6:25am Apr 1, 2010 6:25am
Quoting endroute
Trotty,

When I am looking at a bounce setup like this I look for the following:

1....
Endroute,
Interesting filter. Could you clarify on which bar you are talking about? For example in my last chart would the previous bar be the one before the one that touched the MA?

Thanks,
Kostas
  • #402
  • Apr 1, 2010 6:29am Apr 1, 2010 6:29am
Thank you Kostas and endroute, very useful feedback.

regarding the gap between the previous candle and the MA's endroute, what significance does this have?
  • #403
  • Apr 1, 2010 6:54am Apr 1, 2010 6:54am
Is this a constrainment? I went short at the RN. It looks to be having trouble breaking the RN and the risk was low. PA and 10ema are below other ma's.
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Barry
  • #404
  • Apr 1, 2010 7:02am Apr 1, 2010 7:02am
In the MT4 platform you can right click the profits column heading in the terminal window on the trade tab and you will see a drop down menu with profit as an option which you click on and can set to points and this will show the profit in pips on the profit column, however it still does in the bottom line give the amount of profit and loss in dollars (if you have several trades open at the same time this gives you the summation of wins and losses and let me say that until I found this thread it was usually a loss situation for me). Hope this helps.

Alex
  • #405
  • Apr 1, 2010 7:12am Apr 1, 2010 7:12am
Quoting Trotty
Thank you Kostas and endroute, very useful feedback.

regarding the gap between the previous candle and the MA's endroute, what significance does this have?
typically the quicker the retrace the harder the bounce, except around news events, slow long drawn out moves back to an ma or round # are typically not as reliable. the space concept is along the same line as Clay's 2 bar rule.
  • #406
  • Apr 1, 2010 7:14am Apr 1, 2010 7:14am
Quoting endroute
typically the quicker the retrace the harder the bounce, except around news events, slow long drawn out moves back to an ma or round # are typically not as reliable. the space concept is along the same line as Clay's 2 bar rule.
Gotcha, cheers endroute
  • #407
  • Apr 1, 2010 7:14am Apr 1, 2010 7:14am
Quoting kostas1
Endroute,
Interesting filter. Could you clarify on which bar you are talking about? For example in my last chart would the previous bar be the one before the one that touched the MA?

Thanks,
Kostas
yes it would have been the bar before the one that touched the ma and the 1.5200 level.
  • #408
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:47am Apr 1, 2010 8:47am
Quoting Trotty
....The question is then, would you have taken the trade (without using hindsight to your advantage of course!!). My other thought whilst mulling this trade over was that I could get away with a really low SL, maybe even 6+ spread. It was either going to break through that RN or it wasn't and with the bearish pattern on H1, you'd assume a break would hold so no reason to risk any more. Would this have been a sound move?....
IF I had been awake, I might have taken it, but Endroute's comments are spot on and Kostas did a reasonably good analysis as well. It was an OK entry. Your reasoning was sound as well.

I had already made my decisions a bit earlier when I went back to bed though to wait for better price action. Still,,, not a bad entry.
  • #409
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:50am Apr 1, 2010 8:50am
Quoting Bary
Is this a constrainment? I went short at the RN. It looks to be having trouble breaking the RN and the risk was low. PA and 10ema are below other ma's.
Hi Bary, Look at the H1, not much distance to the support level of the 35, I probably would have waited for that to test out first, but it is a constrainment entry and sometimes those just blow through the support. So, if you took the trade and were aware of that level and just kept a tight SL through the whole trade, it would have been ok to do that.
  • #410
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:53am Apr 1, 2010 8:53am
Quoting eclayf
IF I had been awake, I might have taken it, but Endroute's comments are spot on and Kostas did a reasonably good analysis as well. It was an OK entry. Your reasoning was sound as well.

I had already made my decisions a bit earlier when I went back to bed though to wait for better price action. Still,,, not a bad entry.
Thanks eclayf. What SL do you think you would have used if you had taken it?
  • #411
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:03am Apr 1, 2010 9:03am
Quoting Trotty
Thanks eclayf. What SL do you think you would have used if you had taken it?
About 2 pips below the RN.
  • #412
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:06am Apr 1, 2010 9:06am
Quoting eclayf
About 2 pips below the RN.
Well I would have taken the trade at the RN so you're talking 2 pips + spread then?
  • #413
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:08am Apr 1, 2010 9:08am
Quoting Trotty
Well I would have taken the trade at the RN so you're talking 2 pips + spread then?
Yep,, sorry for the short answers,,, watching the market ATM looking for an entry long if I can find a good one.
  • #414
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:23am Apr 1, 2010 9:23am
You know,,, some days just piss you off. Today,, I've been in this stinking EJ trade twice, moved to BE twice,, been stopped out twice,,,,, hahhahahahhhehheheheh,,,, crap happens,,,,funny part is I KNOW where this dog is headed and I haven't been able to find the right leash on it yet....

OK,,, quit your laughing Endroute,,,

(he's seen me do this waaaaaaay to many times)
  • #415
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:24am Apr 1, 2010 9:24am
The danger of getting sidetracked.

Not seen much to get me excited for a bit so picked up the guitar and noodled around. All the while, something i'd been waiting to happen all day, happended. EJ finally broke out of it's mess and did something.

I'm sticking a chart up to get some verification that this was a good trade but also to keep showing examples of how powerful this way of trading can be.

The first large purple circle shows you some previous price action. Here you see what could be a break long, twice. We have the 5+10 ma's starting to point sharply north and we have higher lows being made. Both moves have pullbacks to the 5/10 ma area where you may have considered getting in. However, look at the 35/50 ma's, they're disagreeing with each other and are not working in harmony at all. It looks all wrong and this alone should keep you away from trading this.

Moving on to the green circled area, the 35 and 50 ma's look much better now. Lined up and moving north together. Although the circled area has not yet broken the high of the day, the ma's are very strongly pointing north with a 50 degree angle. One thing you'll notice is that there is no red pullback candle to take a trade off. However, when the price retraced into this ma area, it was red and could have closed red. What it did instead was reverse quickly and begin making tracks north again. Very quick profit indeed.

I believe that this is a solid, by the rules trade. There was no specific touch to trigger it but that's often hard and difficult to judge as the 5/10 ma's move with current PA too much. I believe a pullback to the general area is fine and taking previous price action into consideration, this was a good trade. Glad to be shown to be wrong though of course

It's weird but jumping in when price is racing away is sometimes more difficult than taking touches on bigger retraces. Very hard to figure out why and i'm still not getting in on enough of these. They should be bread and butter trades IMO. Was good for 50 points plus this, maybe 1:5 RR. Hurumph!
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  • #416
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:28am Apr 1, 2010 9:28am
Quoting eclayf
Yep,, sorry for the short answers,,, watching the market ATM looking for an entry long if I can find a good one.
No sweat. Not sure i'm brave enough to stick down a 2 pip SL though, that's too hairy for me!! 2% of your account lost on a 2 pip spike - yikes!
  • #417
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:53am Apr 1, 2010 9:53am
Quoting Trotty
... 2% of your account lost on a 2 pip spike - yikes!
NOT what happens,,, the script sets the % based on a 15 pip SL then I just move it to 2 pips... so even LESS of the account is actually 'at risk' in a trade like that! More like about .4 or so.

I have attached your chart again with some comments on it, and a chart with my analysis of what's going on and where I think it's going.
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Attached Image
  • #418
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:57am Apr 1, 2010 9:57am
Quoting eclayf
NOT what happens,,, the script sets the % based on a 15 pip SL then I just move it to 2 pips... so even LESS of the account is actually 'at risk' in a trade like that! More like about .4 or so.

I have attached your chart again with some comments on it, and a chart with my analysis of what's going on and where I think it's going.
Brilliant stuff, thanks again mate.

We were at cross purposes with regard to the SL. I have a couple of questions for you about that but they will have to wait until tuesday. I've gotta dash so that's me done for Easter now. Really enjoying trading with the folk on the thread and I wish you all a happy Easter!

Till Tuesday
  • #419
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:58am Apr 1, 2010 9:58am
Great info, thanks everyone!!
Took +15 from that earlier trade but then got stopped twice on the following shorts.
I shorted the one candle pullback to the 10ema at the first arrow (I thought that was a good entry??), then shorted again at the 35/50 and RN, 2nd arrow.
Then I tried to get long at green arrow but it missed me by a pip, it was a nice pullback after breaking above the ma's and RN, with the 10 turning up and above the 35/50 ma's.
Now waiting for E/U or U/J to pullback to the 10ema
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Barry
  • #420
  • Apr 1, 2010 10:02am Apr 1, 2010 10:02am
Quoting Trotty
The danger of getting sidetracked.


It's weird but jumping in when price is racing away is sometimes more difficult than taking touches on bigger retraces. Very hard to figure out why and i'm still not getting in on enough of these. They should be bread and butter trades IMO. Was good for 50 points plus this, maybe 1:5 RR. Hurumph!
Trotty you are not alone...I too am missing alot of good trades because i am waiting for the perfect touch that just does not seem to happen or that the bar just does not retrace close enough to the MA (IMO) to pull the trigger. When I should be looking at the angle of the MA to strengthen my confidence.
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