This thread has died down, but I'm almost surprised nobody posted about what looked/looks like it was a recent option play on EUR/USD. This is history but as it was happening I was able to make out the possibility that it might be shaping up the way it did - though I was detachedly watching from afar and not in the trenches on this one: an armchair quarterback.
Caveat: I don't use IFR nor do I have info regarding where options have been or might be hiding. I can post a chart but ScottyB has asked that this thread remain uncluttered so hopefully my description will suffice. I make these observations while looking at an E/U 1 hour chart based on Eastern time.
The 3/30 2:00 AM (Eastern) high was 1.3537 on my chart (just under the 1.3550 presumed option level), and that following that high a decline of 151 pips ensued. This was my first clue that the 1.355 level *might* be in play.
The prolonged overnight rally that started at 2:00 AM on 3/31 bears a striking resemblance to the stop hunt that Darkstar posted about earlier in this thread. I would cite the 10:00 AM, miss (option defence) and the 12:00 noon very near miss (option defence) and decline but hold, with the overnight session move playing out and triggering the stops (presumably) at 20:00 on 3/31 and extending to 1.3561 on my chart as the final note on the harp was plucked.
Perhaps this was an option play. Perhaps it was not. But of one thing I am certain, there are aspects of this way of thinking about option levels and stop hunts that are certainly exploitable and it seems like history repeating itself. Did anybody else notice this move and did you also conclude that this was an option play or something else? Were you safely in your armchair or did you go out on the field?
Caveat: I don't use IFR nor do I have info regarding where options have been or might be hiding. I can post a chart but ScottyB has asked that this thread remain uncluttered so hopefully my description will suffice. I make these observations while looking at an E/U 1 hour chart based on Eastern time.
The 3/30 2:00 AM (Eastern) high was 1.3537 on my chart (just under the 1.3550 presumed option level), and that following that high a decline of 151 pips ensued. This was my first clue that the 1.355 level *might* be in play.
The prolonged overnight rally that started at 2:00 AM on 3/31 bears a striking resemblance to the stop hunt that Darkstar posted about earlier in this thread. I would cite the 10:00 AM, miss (option defence) and the 12:00 noon very near miss (option defence) and decline but hold, with the overnight session move playing out and triggering the stops (presumably) at 20:00 on 3/31 and extending to 1.3561 on my chart as the final note on the harp was plucked.
Perhaps this was an option play. Perhaps it was not. But of one thing I am certain, there are aspects of this way of thinking about option levels and stop hunts that are certainly exploitable and it seems like history repeating itself. Did anybody else notice this move and did you also conclude that this was an option play or something else? Were you safely in your armchair or did you go out on the field?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
