Watch the rise (or fall) of a trader gone naked

Hi,

I'm still waiting patiently for the next short opportunity on the daily chart. Normally I monitor the price action every couple of hours, but today I actually forgot (!) about the market for 6 hours. That has never happened before. I feel good about it, because it tells me that my emotions are more disconnected from my trading then they were a couple of months ago.

I'm now waiting for a good retrace. The market has to break the steep resistance and head up towards 1.38. I will then take a short position after the indicated end of the retrace, which is a red candle.

The retrace is getting closer since the market has been stretched out a little bit and it has been slowing down around 1.36. Those facts are, however, only indications. Nothing's certain.

By the way, check out the new thread created by CrucialPoint. It's here in the Trading Journals Forum and there's a link to it in the first post of this thread.

beam

My emotions: "There will be a retrace, right? Will it not? I'm goin' nuts! Is the f-n market goin' down forever?"

My common sense: "It will retrace sooner or later. I'm doing a god job not to chase it. Patience will pay off."

Have a nice weekend!

beam

Finally, a "valid" retrace is in place. The market has been slowing down during the last few weeks and the recent move up from the 1.4 area started the retrace.

The resistance line is now somewhere between 1.38 and 1.385. Only 100+ pips away. The market has also moved up towards the Bollinger buy channel.

Ideally, I would like it to go up to 1.38-ish before indicating an end to the retrace. But the market don't always do what I want it to do...

Todays red candle is enough for me. You might argue it's a risky trade with the NFP coming up and the crisis in Greece and all. Yeah, it might be, but from a tech viewpoint I have to go in. Actually, I've back tested my "system" a couple of years and I have never found that the NFP has that much effect in the long term.

I've placed my stop well above the resistance TL and approximately 75 pips above the previous horizontal support. This trade has a lot of space, but I'm "betting" with the trend.

Trade 12 (short)
Entry: 1.35811
Stop Loss: 1.395
Status*: -368.9 pips

*) Current stop order

We're in for a serious consolidation, but the end of it is probably near. I obviously rushed into trade 12. Should have waited for a significant break up or down. Lesson learned, but not payed for... yet... But who knows, maybe it'll work out since the trade is with the trend.

Trade 12 is 170 pips behind. The market did break out of the consolidation. And it closed above the falling resistance... But below the horizontal resistance at 1.38.

For now, I will leave the trade to itself, but if the market manages to close above 1.38, I will reconsider my position. Tomorrow will be interesting...

If this trade becomes a winner or a loser, either way it is a bad trade. I entered too early. This is a new candidate rule for my strategy: "Don't predict the market, follow it."

beam

The market didn't manage to close above 1.38 today.

A close above 1.38 will indicate that the retrace/correction isn't over just yet. A close below the support, see chart, currently at 1.3652 will indicate the start of a resumed trend down.

As you can see on the daily chart, there is a resistance at 1.35-ish. Earlier today when the market went below only to turn back up again, I changed my stop to 1.355. I then got stopped out.

Please see the log for results.

What now? Here are the alternatives:

1. The market closes below 1.35 -> new short trade.
2. The market bounces back off 1.38 again -> new short trade.
3. The market closes above 1.38 -> maybe a long position.
4. Anything else between 1.35 and 1.38 -> sidelines.

Sold at 1.33128. Stop loss at 1.36.

I've been looking too much at time frames shorter than daily, such as 1h and 15min. I also started trade 12 before the market showed my that I should. The correct entry would have been after the drop to 1.38+ to 1.3607. And because I was watching the 15min chart when the market bounced at 1.35'ish I got over-cautious.

Lesson learned. Trade 13 is actually a continuation of trade 12. Stop loss is placed well above (100 pips) the previous support 1.35.

I will go back to two market checks per day only. 6-7 am and 10 pm CET. Daily, weekly and monthly charts only.

beam

Trade 13 is now 40 pips in profit. Stop loss is kept at 1.36, since it's only an emergency stop. I will manually close the trade when I have a daily candle with at least 75% of the difference between open and close above the Bollinger sell channel. However, this trade might have to be handled differently (it's some 300 pips late...) if it's on the wrong side of the entry when that happens. I might then have to trust the 1.35 resistance to take the market down again.

If I had followed my method, trade 12 would still be active from 1.3606. 330 pips profit. I would have moved my ESL to BE today. You can count on that I will follow the rules in my next I trade...

I have been very relaxed today since I stayed away from the market. Had a look at it a couple of hours before the London session, and then again a few minutes ago.

I feel that I have to practice to be more patient and disciplined in my relation to the market.

beam

160 pips behind. Just below the 1.35 horizontal resistance. It's also out of the sell zone. I will follow the rules the next time.

Bounced back down from the 1.35 resistance. Back in the sell zone. Looking good. I look forward to see what the rest of the week brings. Greece, Portugal, IMF, NFP, etc.

Been a while since I got any feedback on my posts here. Is anyone at all interested in this thread?

beam

I read every update. Slow but...interesting. Also, I follow your blog via samtradesfx

Thanks Sam! It's encouraging to know that at least one fellow trader take interest in my posts. Enough for me, I will continue to post here. Can't wait until I can start the "Successfully Trading the EURUSD Daily" thread in the discussion forum

But miss Peter FM's ambushes. It was very refreshing when he barged in and dismounted my posts

Mmm, sure thing. I too look forward to your "Successfully trading..." thread.

Key thing, I believe, is that the journal & blog are helping you. I've posted to an online journal (http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums...ad.php?t=57907) two years straight yet after the second year, 100+ pages, 1200 replies & 40k views, found I was under more pressure with the journal, daily updates, posters, etc. and have since cut way back with that, along with my blog. My trading has improved since.

As long as it's helping you...you'll be able to help others in good time

Keep it up!

You've already seen me stop a winner and chase a trade. Two well known newbie mistakes. My next move might turn out to be another classic, to let your losers run. I want to give my trade more space before the NFP announcement later today. SL is now at 1.37. The trend is down, but the question is if the market will turn back down again before I get stopped out.

Beam

SL moved back to 1.36.

The market is now at 1.3341, only 30 pips above my too early entry. A correct entry would have been at 1.339'ish 24 hours ago. The market has also gone down into the sell channel. So... I can now almost manage the trade according to my rules.