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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #219,941
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:54pm Mar 31, 2010 4:54pm
Quoting Cod
Ya it is moving about a pip every four hours.

One of my brokers has an insiders view where it tells how many of their customers are on what side of the trade. 75% are short GY, the 25% that are long have an average stoploss of 95.00.
hey Cod, that probably means that GY is going up if 3/4 of traders are short ! we all know the market and how it whip[s the other way to what is most commonly perceived.
I read an article yesterday that said the Queen could intervene in the elections in the UK and stop a general election next month - - if she is advised an election would be bad for the economy.
I hope this doesn't happen as i am gunning for 128 and lower, but i think GU needs to complete it's 4th wave up, and then maybe after that we'll see GY come down.
  • #219,942
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:17pm Mar 31, 2010 5:17pm

Wednesday, March 31, 2010 14:48:58
(UK) PIMCO said that the UK risks a vicious circle of rising debt costs as global investors demand a penalty fee on gilts to protect against inflation - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans- Pritchard
- According to Bill Gross, the UK was on PIMCO's list of "must avoid" countries along with Greece and others in the EU's Club Med.
  • #219,943
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:21pm Mar 31, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting hombremalo
hey Cod, that probably means that GY is going up if 3/4 of traders are short ! we all know the market and how it whip[s the other way to what is most commonly perceived.
I read an article yesterday that said the Queen could intervene in the elections in the UK and stop a general election next month - - if she is advised an election would be bad for the economy.
I hope this doesn't happen as i am gunning for 128 and lower, but i think GU needs to complete it's 4th wave up, and then maybe after that we'll see GY come down.
Ya, it seems like if the common view is right it only happens after a good move the other direction to get them off the position.

I am sure Queen mum will take good care of her properties. The pope is coming to visit soon and I am sure she will want to make sure the rugs have been cleaned and the floors scrubbed before that.

I am freshly long from the top here after TP right at the same spot.

I am constantly refining my disaster preparedness plan here.

Hoping for a pre news 30 pip jack up to give me a chance for be, I don't know though after the bad news today I hung in there and was glad I did, may just ride it out.
  • #219,944
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:30pm Mar 31, 2010 5:30pm
Thanks Cod


Yes it is tight but according to my calendar the TMI at 6:50 pm (est) is suppose to be high impact.

I think I will put in my not so famous straddle trade a buy and a sell one gets filled the other canceled and filled one movies with a trailing stop loss.it works more times then not..I used the same setup for NFP..

Dean




[/quote]Can't really say, you would have thought the news today would have taken 100 pips off of it easy but it has a mind of its own right now.

Just off hand I would say Jpy news bad gy goes up a little more, Jpy news good maybe goes down a little.

Its in a super tight range right now of just a few pips so whatever happens will be interesting.[/quote]
  • #219,945
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:37pm Mar 31, 2010 5:37pm
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_bO4XCgwfSu...f+Jerky%3F.jpg
  • #219,946
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:39pm Mar 31, 2010 5:39pm
Quoting Leche Mocha
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_bO4XCgwfSu...f+Jerky%3F.jpg
god i luv that movie

Beef jerky anyone?
  • #219,947
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:41pm Mar 31, 2010 5:41pm
Pivots
S3 S2 S1 P R1 R2 R3

Hourly
GBP/JPY141.51141.64141.72141.85141.93142.06142.14
4 HR
GBP/JPY141.49141.61141.74141.86141.99142.11142.24
Daily
GBP/JPY138.10138.91140.39141.20142.68143.49144.97
Weekly
GBP/JPY131.91133.22135.50136.81139.09140.40142.68
  • #219,948
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:42pm Mar 31, 2010 5:42pm
The Tankan index news is @ 7:50 EST.
  • #219,949
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:45pm Mar 31, 2010 5:45pm
Hmm well I was the same as EST what happen?
It's 5:45 pm my time now
Dean



Quoting Beljevina
The Tankan index news is @ 7:50 EST.
  • #219,950
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:52pm Mar 31, 2010 5:52pm
Quoting dean walker
Hmm well I was the same as EST what happen?
It's 5:45 pm my time now
Dean
Not sure ... you've lost me Dean. ... You originally wrote the news was at 6:50 EST, and I just wanted to let folks know it's about an hour away @ 7:50 EST.
  • #219,951
  • Mar 31, 2010 6:02pm Mar 31, 2010 6:02pm
lol no I'm sorry what I meant to say was it is 5:45 where I live now in that post.
I re-read it and saw how it is confusing..I am a hour behind but I was the same a while ago I think..down here I never pay that much attention to actual time but does explain why the opening of London and NY seemed pretty busy as it already been open a hour ..
Thanks
Dean


Quoting Beljevina
Not sure ... you've lost me Dean. ... You originally wrote the news was at 6:50 EST, and I just wanted to let folks know it's about an hour away @ 7:50 EST.
  • #219,952
  • Mar 31, 2010 6:19pm Mar 31, 2010 6:19pm
March 31, 2010 17:39 ET: Dow and S&P500 consolidate over the last 7 sessions with stochastics increasingly bearish (triple top in RSI, negative crossover in MACD). Although Nikkei was the only rallying index in Asian to have rallied on Wednesday, Thursday could be an occasion for a selloff, which could be extended by further yen strength as tonights Tankan survey is released (see calendar for Tankan). AUDJPY now testing key 61.8% retracement at 85.70s, while oil closes above 83, therefore closely watch whether these gains are sustainable into the rest of the week. Remember that on Jan 11 crude oil hit a $83.95 before retreating towards 78 in that same week. Will a disappointing NFP erode risk trades in FX to the benefit of USD and JPY?

For what it's worth, you'd expect a weaker yen to be favoured by manufacturers, along with a somewhat bettering climate, so, we may see the yen crosses move down. But, given the new world of currency movement over the last 2 weeks, you could also throw darts for the outcome.
  • #219,953
  • Mar 31, 2010 6:54pm Mar 31, 2010 6:54pm
-14 on the Tankan index, exactly what was expected. Barely a pip of movement attributable to the news. Overall implies more pessimists than optimists on manufacturing. Next month is expected to be -8, and you can probably take that to the bank. And now, back to your regularly scheduled programming ...
  • #219,954
  • Mar 31, 2010 6:57pm Mar 31, 2010 6:57pm
ya, that was anti climactic, oh well at least we got out of that tight range.

the Non-Manufacturing Index was two points better than expected so apparently the world is falling into the abyss is a less than expected rate. that works for me.
  • #219,955
  • Mar 31, 2010 7:14pm Mar 31, 2010 7:14pm
Boring but manage to take 10 pips from the market..
Come to think about it we really have not had any news lately that had a impact it's like the market is on tranquilizers when the news comes..
Dean
  • #219,956
  • Mar 31, 2010 8:27pm Mar 31, 2010 8:27pm
Quoting pash78
Closed all longs, I think we might see a corrective wave here. I will stay aside or scalp a few shorts after confirmation.
you might want to re-label your count or wait til the picture becomes clear.
it is way off.
  • #219,957
  • Mar 31, 2010 8:34pm Mar 31, 2010 8:34pm
looks like we are at fe 100 141.89.
would look for how 4hr bar closes as a clue.
  • #219,958
  • Edited 9:06pm Mar 31, 2010 8:35pm | Edited 9:06pm
we are stuck in the middle now, where is the strongest center of gravity back down at h4 35sma of 138.79 or is the gravity from w1 35sma of 145.9 more powerful.

I know we are getting way off the averages but remember when it fell down here it didn't follow protocol either.

I am going to keep riding it like a bull tell it throws me off.

I will say though that I am not going to compromise with my sl or be. Sometimes I'll move back a little to keep from loosing a position I think will get just touched and gone. I don't want to get seduced by a slow moving down trend that never ends till it gets back to an sma.

I called 148 on sunday but it is crazy to see it could almost happen.

Nice Butterfly taking shape on GJ
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  • #219,959
  • Mar 31, 2010 9:16pm Mar 31, 2010 9:16pm
here are a few naked charts with important levels.

at this moment, price is going up in a channel - see h4 and daily charts (in fact, daily shows a very nice series of higher lows). lower limit of this channel stands @ 141.73.

if 141.73 is broken, i expect a significant retrace to next support - maybe to previous weekly close, 137.78, maybe higher (i mentioned all supports in one of my previous posts)... what i know for sure is that 141.8 area will turn into serious resistance, because this is also March' close.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #219,960
  • Mar 31, 2010 9:27pm Mar 31, 2010 9:27pm
You are good, it just got reject off of 73

Very helpful info thanks.

It looks like it just needed to step down a little and find some better footing to march uphill with. They brought it down to 80 like a china plate on a pillow. I have seem them do that and just keep going though.

Was good to know 73 was the channel, I hadn't caught on to that yet.
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