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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #219,901
  • Mar 31, 2010 9:04am Mar 31, 2010 9:04am
I am getting the feeling the adp numbers are going to turn out to be much more negative than the final number.
  • #219,902
  • Mar 31, 2010 9:41am Mar 31, 2010 9:41am
Quoting shiva
By 11 15 you mean NY time?
Yes. Or, 4:15pm London time. If USD gets sold, could also mean EURUSD will trend reach 1.3550.

Quoting Cod
I am getting the feeling the adp numbers are going to turn out to be much more negative than the final number.
You mean Friday's NFP? That might be the case ... if so, poor liquidity could mean a Thanksgiving like plunge to the 138's on GJ.
  • #219,903
  • Mar 31, 2010 9:50am Mar 31, 2010 9:50am
Quoting Beljevina
Yes. Or, 4:15pm London time. If USD gets sold, could also mean EURUSD will trend reach 1.3550.

You mean Friday's NFP? That might be the case ... if so, poor liquidity could mean a Thanksgiving like plunge to the 138's on GJ.
I was thinking the other way around, todays numbers, the adp are showing something more negative than what the final will be. So reverse scenario and low liquidity on friday creates a high high.

Just trying to rationalize how a pair already way past due for a correction get a whiff of possibly worse than expected job numbers and it only costs 60 80 pips. You may be right though and the price will come down this afternoon.
  • #219,904
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:01am Mar 31, 2010 10:01am
holy crap what was that all about, i was long so good for me but dang

and he did say unto them, "thall shalt notest shorteth they GBPJPY"

and they did say Amen.
  • #219,905
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:31am Mar 31, 2010 10:31am
Highest volumes of the day on the 5m and 15m TF when price reached 142 ish. Indicates sell orders.

Let's see how strong they are.

Crazy PA. Scalpers paradise, but makes the swing traders nervous..... especially those with short bias.
  • #219,906
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:35am Mar 31, 2010 10:35am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Highest volumes of the day on the 5m and 15m TF when price reached 142 ish. Indicates sell orders.

Let's see how strong they are.

Crazy PA. Scalpers paradise, but makes the swing traders nervous..... especially those with short bias.
UJ double top @ 93.75, GU UTL @ 1.5215 => GJ @ UTL 143.4
Don't know, could happen
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #219,907
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:38am Mar 31, 2010 10:38am
Quoting USD-Bear
UJ double top @ 93.75, GU UTL @ 1.5215 => GJ @ UTL 143.4
Don't know, could happen
I have 143 for my UTL, but yea, keeping an eye on it certainly.
  • #219,908
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:40am Mar 31, 2010 10:40am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Highest volumes of the day on the 5m and 15m TF when price reached 142 ish. Indicates sell orders.

Let's see how strong they are.

Crazy PA. Scalpers paradise, but makes the swing traders nervous..... especially those with short bias.
Would like to see your chart view ... I'm not seeing markedly high volumes up at that new high.

Frankly, I'm P O'ed at this movement, rightly what the big boys want: 100+ north pips on nothing. I vote we christen GJ the Coattail Pair - other than the blatant manipulation, there is no reason nor predictability to it's rise. I think I'll be done with GJ shortly; missing too many moves elsewhere that do make sense. How strong are they? With manipulation in overdrive, no reason for them not to visit 147+ at this rate.
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  • #219,909
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:40am Mar 31, 2010 10:40am
Quoting ukdaytrader
I have 143 for my UTL, but yea, keeping an eye on it certainly.
That would even fit the other 2 figures better, lets do.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #219,910
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:43am Mar 31, 2010 10:43am
Quoting PandoraBox
GJ monthly pattern similiar on 1 June 1995.
Any chart? What type of pip vs. time movement & circumstances do you recall? Next to none of us were trading 15 years ago.
  • #219,911
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:51am Mar 31, 2010 10:51am
goin long @ market for a move to 143 atleast wit a sl @ 138.
  • #219,912
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:55am Mar 31, 2010 10:55am
Quoting allendavid23
goin long @ market for a move to 143 atleast wit a sl @ 138.
  • #219,913
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:55am Mar 31, 2010 10:55am
Quoting Beljevina
Would like to see your chart view ... I'm not seeing markedly high volumes up at that new high.

Frankly, I'm P O'ed at this movement, rightly what the big boys want: 100+ north pips on nothing. I vote we christen GJ the Coattail Pair - other than the blatant manipulation, there is no reason nor predictability to it's rise. I think I'll be done with GJ shortly; missing too many moves elsewhere that do make sense. How strong are they? With manipulation in overdrive, no reason for them not to visit 147+ at this rate.
15m chart showing high volume. (See arrows).
It's funny because all day I've been seeing what look like signs of selling into each upmove only for the PA to continue higher.

Hmmmmm

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  • #219,914
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:55am Mar 31, 2010 10:55am
Quoting allendavid23
goin long @ market for a move to 143 atleast wit a sl @ 138.
1:5 not a great reward/risk ratio......
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #219,915
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:55am Mar 31, 2010 10:55am
100 DAY SMA is at 142.50'ish, which will provide resistance.

the 50 DAY SMA provided some resistance - not a lot.

NM
  • #219,916
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:57am Mar 31, 2010 10:57am
Quoting USD-Bear
1:5 not a great reward/risk ratio......
well a minimum move to 143 and sl large coz dealin with the beast
  • #219,917
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:58am Mar 31, 2010 10:58am
You know there are a lot of people drooling over any kind of drawdown at this point. I don't see much hope of any retraces over 100 pips till 148 is landed.
  • #219,918
  • Mar 31, 2010 11:00am Mar 31, 2010 11:00am
Good Night All.
Red Triangle is unpredictable area, Green Triangle is predictable area.

I love unpredictable area.., who`s know market politic.
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  • #219,919
  • Mar 31, 2010 11:03am Mar 31, 2010 11:03am
Quoting ukdaytrader
15m chart showing high volume. (See arrows).
It's funny because all day I've been seeing what look like signs of selling into each upmove only for the PA to continue higher.

Hmmmmm
Attachment
I think most attempts at VSA are in vain on GJ these days ... my 15m view shows double the overall trading volume (scale at side), so in theory it should be more representative. (My LP is supposed to be Citibank) Having said that, my last white bar stopping volume shows the highest recent 15M volume, hence buying of the dips by pros. Regardless, we're all getting only a small portion of overall volume view - esignal might be better, but I bet big boys aren't adequately represented in there either.

Not trying to be difficult, I just think we're into a GJ mode where volume/VSA is carrying less weight, given some of the correlations I mentioned in my previous note.
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  • #219,920
  • Mar 31, 2010 11:03am Mar 31, 2010 11:03am
Quoting next-move
100 DAY SMA is at 142.50'ish, which will provide resistance.

the 50 DAY SMA provided some resistance - not a lot.

NM
We are also at FE 100 retrace of the move started from 132.05 from the swing high/lo and we are also currenly kissing weekly gann. . .

Not to say it won't spike up and hit 143.69 area but it sure has a lot of wood to chop which means nothing considering it has taken out some significant resistane at this point. . .

Which just goes to show you that the market can move price anywhere they want at any given time regardless of ma, fibs, indi's, gann, TL etc.

At this point gj not repecting any of the above it's a market agenda and no ones knows where the top or bottom or which way it's going to go at this point. . .

If you are long good call and congrats to all who took that trade.
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