Dan's Self-Honesty Journal

Well here it goes...

Method:
J16

Time Frames:
weekly/daily/4hr

I will be taking my trades posted in this journal on a live account. If there is a trade posted that is taken on a demo account, I will specify that.

Risk per trade will vary, never exceeding 4%.

Up to this point, my trading has been very loosely monitored. I think making a thread like this will force me to take full and detailed recordings of all my decisions. Starting this journal can only help me so I feel it's necessary in my pursuit of success.

Every weekend I will post how much my account has grown, or how much my account has shrunk during the previous week in percentage terms (that's realized and unrealized).

I need to thank my mentor, James16 for being the most helpful and giving human being on the internet (this is not an exaggeration, just fact). His crew in the J16 thread are overly friendly and it will leave you stunned when you first check it out. I have been inspired by others who have come up as successful traders, namely kissfan, MBQB11, and Jarroo are the first 3 who pop into my head. I know there's a ton more but you guys know who you are! If I ever give back half to anyone else, what I have learned from these people, I will be extremely pleased with myself.

Let's get this party started, shall we?

UPDATE: 4-29-2010

I have neglected this thread in a bad way. I turned my attention back to the J16 thread, and that thread has been bogged down by politics and newer traders as of this past week or so. I can't complain about new traders, because I'm a new trader too. But I feel like my graduation is near in terms of deciding who I AM, and what I BELIEVE. It's time for me to pave my own road, and determine what type of trades I want to take, and what my risk structure is for those trades. Also, my technique has spread beyond J16 PA, and posting touch trades in the J16 thread doesn't feel right to me anymore. Recently, I have had a good "theoretical" run of touch trades going with the trend (by theoretical, I mean that I have canceled some winner trades before they even were triggered, and would have proven to be very successful in hindsight). My studies into round numbers at every 100 pip increment has also become better, also the idea that closing up the entire position at a first target area is a good idea, for the most part (thanks Mike!).

Also, I have began studying futures now. Expanding my knowledge to more markets will mean that I have more opportunity, thus more reason to be patient and wait for the best trades. As of this date, I HOPE that I can be trading futures on a live account after 3 months of study.

95% of traders fail. What do traders on Forex Factory NOT DO, especially in the journals section? Answer: They don't post their trade terminals. Why? Because they're part of the 95%. period. End of discussion.

I plan to start posting my terminal here, and following what I see on my charts, and my own risk structure when I see an opportunity. I don't care if I have a string of losing trades. Really I don't. Money does not matter, what matters is progress. AM I IMPROVING? well, that will be seen here.

I still owe my knowledge to my mentors, and without them I would be doomed.


Rules:
I am not smarter than my rules
All trades where a plan was followed, go in the winner column. +/- is irrelevant
Weekly trades are managed on a weekly chart, daily trades are managed on a daily chart
Trend is my friend
Counter trend trades are good for 1% risk at the most
Trend trades are good for 3% risk at the most
Be patient
Don't be greedy



If you guys have any questions in regards to why I took a trade the way I did, or something of that nature, I hope you will ask in a reasonable manner that doesn't hint at "pie in the sky" expectations because I will not deal with that. Also, private messages get a much better response from me than a random post thrown into my thread here, so consider that a hint as to how to get a good response from me.



UPDATE: 6-2-2010

New update, I have reduced the number of pairs I am trading down to:

EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
USDCAD
EURGBP/GBPCHF (these almost mirror each other)
EURJPY
GBPJPY


I may place a rare trade here and there on the other pairs, but the other pairs are too choppy I have found. lowering to these ones will allow me to get a better feel for them specifically as well. Also I can focus heavier on futures, and becoming accustomed to the fundies!

I'm going to start this thing off with what I'm looking at for weekly setups to watch during the next week of trading. I find the weekend is the best time to do this analysis, for obvious reasons.

First off, we have a NZD/USD weekly chart.

Second pic is a trade I took last week using the weekly I4B found on USD/JPY. I am holding it over the weekend, I am currently looking at a 0.5% realized profit, and a 1.8% unrealized profit (I'm scaling out of the position here). This is my only open position at the moment.

very nice consolidation, expecting a strong breakout.... I don't care which way it breaks, I just want to be sure that I'm along for the ride

Nice, just saw this thread.
hope u wont get too reclusive now that u have your own cave.
Good luck!

I think this thread will become first priority for me...

Well I'm long on this... Kind of suprised that price broke upwards.

Moving stop to B/E after 30 pips, profit targets are highlighted.

got a couple windup patterns going on here... will watch them!

note: I'm already long on USDJPY and am not looking to add to my position on this pennant. The GBPJPY squeeze alert is right smack on a strong weekly PPZ though.... I'm considering a 1% risk here.

well today USDJPY closed up a daily bar as an I4B/squeeze alert pattern at a significant PPZ. I have moved my S/L on my weekly long trade to 92.21, and placed a sell stop for USDJPY at 92.19...

We'll see what happens here.

Hi Dan ,
Thanks for open nice thread.I am sure this wiil be another great thread with excellent charts as u provided J16 thread.
Good luck to you.

I shall do my best

I took a 2% loss on this trade.... on to the next one!


EURUSD BEOB, good for a 4% risk coming off the 1.35 BRN, nice bar, S/R... this is absolutely an A+ trade. first target: 1.3290

here is a current terminal shot of pending trades. I currently have no open trades.

USDJPY=1% risk
management: 25 pips to break even, 95 pips to 1/2 profit.
EURUSD=0.5% risk
management: 25 pips to break even, 50 pips to 1/2 profit.
AUDUSD=2% risk
management: 75 pips to break even, 75 pips to 1/2 profit.

this trade was never triggered. huge wake up call to me and understanding that PA isn't always going to work, even if it's "A+"

here is the reason for my aud trade, my eur trade, and my usdjpy trade.

aud: bullish flag
eur: 61.8, round number, down trend, weekly PPZ that is very strong and goes way back in time.
usdjpy: trend, 61.8, 95 round number

sorry about how messy the jpy chart is, the 95.60 will most likely be my next touch trade short attempt if the 95 fails.

I4B on euraud, I'm taking it short for 1%, not good enough for me to risk 2% (no very big round number).

that is the only daily PA I am taking for today.

see attached.

EURUSD: 0.5% loss
AUDUSD: 1.2% loss (closed position before weekend)

My futures demo trading was very sick last week, 5% gain (on fake money lol)

I may start posting all my futures DEMO trades here alongside my live trading currency trades.

I will lay out my plans for some of my upcoming trades for this week. I already have couple orders placed.

Studies this weekend included a lot of trendline theory, a tiny bit of futures study, trailing stops on trades VS targets (amazing results on this, ONLY WHEN TRENDING, though - - get crushed when market turns sideways), and very long term chart studies.

Price has been bouncing very well off the PPZ's I pre-drew on my charts using the zig zag indicator, and this is a good "indication" as to how many of my trades may play out in the upcoming weeks in hopes of becoming more developed in the "touch trading" department.

have a look at this GBPUSD weekly chart. the yellow horizontal line is a strong PPZ, and the upper downward sloping trendline is legit in my opinion.

I'm seeing Price bouncing hard off the 1.57 here, and running down to 1.55 at the least.


1% risk

management technique: 100 pip trailing stop loss as soon as trade is placed, this will reduce risk as price reaches my target @ 1.5500


EDIT: also my USDJPY sell @ 95.00 is still there, unchanged from last week

EURUSD trade for this week.

1% risk

100 pip trailing stop applied immediatly when trade is placed to reduce risk as price reaches my target.

interesting one


EDIT: added in terminal picture.

management: 45 pips to break even, full profit taken @ 1.6225


2% risk