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Silent Service Method

  • #7,741
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:20pm Mar 26, 2010 11:20pm
hi low
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  • #7,742
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:34pm Mar 26, 2010 11:34pm
Quoting samer960
hi low

I like 81 as good strong support. Granted....most of this is Euro weakness, and not necessarily any great vote of confidence in the Dollar.
  • #7,743
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:44pm Mar 26, 2010 11:44pm
Quoting Low
If anybody here has a good chart for the DXY (I use freestockcharts.which only prints EOD and often varies from real feeds) could you please post both a daily and a 4H chart?

And I have a question for you, Chris:

I use the DXY mostly as an indicator for secondary confirmation of things I want to get into, but today's market action was strange to me. My daily DX chart shows a bearish outside bar, yet the indexes pinned, and gold and silver both gained.

I like correlations when they hold, but always try to keep in mind that not all things move...
This is somewhat of an esoteric question, but I will certainly try my best on this one.

Bearish outside bar implies weakness.....and gold is priced in USD.....so it holds true that it takes more USD to buy that Gold. However, that correlation doesn't always hold It really comes down to why traders are buying gold. Sometimes they are buying it because they don't like fiat currencies in general, but the USD is also considered a safe currency. I will give you some free advice about Gold: Don't pay attention to anything but the Gold chart. It seems like the reasons and truisms of gold change constantly. Silver is a bit different, because it is also an industrial metal - unlike gold, it has some uses.

Now as far as your bit about the DX being bearish, and the index charts being bearish - that can happen as well. It's not a given that the USD needs to get weak in order for the stocks to go up, or vice versa. In fact, I would say that correlation is breaking down a bit at the moment. I know the set ups of which you speak, and to be honest.....I wouldn't be overly surprised to see the USD pull back a touch and find support at 81, before going up again. (If I were a betting man I would believe it that is.)

Think of it this way: Europe is a mess. Risk is something that perhaps we are going to see people shun. That means Treasury Bills, which have to be bought in USD......so the demand for the Dollar goes up, and at the same time, the stocks go down.

However, you can also see money flowing into the USA in general.....which could cause both to go up as well. I know it's a pain in the ass to think about all of this - but it wouldn't be any fun if it were easy would it? lol

In general, you can figure out what's going on by paying attention to the last several weeks, and see what all is going up.....but that also takes experience as well.

I hope I didn't complicate it any more for you. I am wiped out, and need some sleep! If I screwed up this post, let me know - I can give you a better answer after a few hours of sleep!

Chris
  • #7,744
  • Mar 27, 2010 12:14pm Mar 27, 2010 12:14pm
Thanks Samer and Chris.

I think some of the confusion also comes from the new health-care legislation here in the US, not because it's good or bad, but simply because Wall Street is still trying to digest it.

In regards to the indexes,one thing that surprised me was that there was very little selling at the last established "top". It seemed like the big players were holding out for a higher high ( a fib extension at that ) to take profit at, while letting the "average investor" drive price to that level. This would validate the uptrend and lure more dumb-money into the long side to insure that there are plenty of buyers to sell into.

In short, I've just been wondering where all the sellers were, and I'm not sure if they've come out of hiding yet. The volume we've seen on this "rally" has effected me the same as many others, clearly there was lots of money to be made on the upside in the last 12 months, but on such mediocre volume that's it hard to justify a long position in light of the knowledge that fundamentally, little has changed here in the US in regards to dealing with many of the causes of our "downturn".

Sorry about the rambling, I'll stop myself now, since I could probably go on forever. Thanks again guys.
  • #7,745
  • Mar 27, 2010 11:23pm Mar 27, 2010 11:23pm
hi chris
we have a shooting star being formed on monthly . and price broke the daily and weekly trendline .
i am short already and i am aware of the level we have around 12750 .
but the shooting star we have on monthly chart and the candle we just had on weekly is telling me this pair might break 12750 and go much lower , what do u think ?
samer
  • #7,746
  • Edited 2:32am Mar 28, 2010 2:24am | Edited 2:32am
Quoting golferfx
Evening traders,


The way I see it, the euro will break $1.30 then seek $1.17 then will find parity and lower.


And that's all I have to say about the euro.


forrestfx

For anyone still thinking about shorting the EURO and going long the USD I think you have to give that a rethink and be careful. I'm not making any 100% guarantees here but I can see a bullish move on the EURO coming very very soon.

Let's not forget that the issue/turmoil surrounding Greece has been resolved and a new agreement between Germany and rest of EU: combined IMF and EU aid to Greece would be allowed, if unanimous decision in E-Z countries.

Secondly, the COT report clearly shows that the euro is back to having a record number of non-commercial futures-only positions at -74,917. This is a more than 50% increase from last week's -46,341 knowing fully well that the prior euro net short record was -74,551 two weeks ago.

Could this be a turning point for the EURO, a good time to go long??.. Well maybe and maybe not. But I really really have a strong conviction about an up-move soon. And of course, I could be wrong too..

Enjoy the weekend guys...

Cheers.
  • #7,747
  • Edited 5:30am Mar 28, 2010 5:20am | Edited 5:30am
hi my friend
for now i agree with u and u are probably right . but later many countries will follow Greece ( many are in the list Italy , Spain , Portugal)
and as a day trader , i will be looking for some price action to short the euro around 1.38 area .
join me we might get some pips
regards
samer

Quoting wh1zz0
For anyone still thinking about shorting the EURO and going long the USD I think you have to give that a rethink and be careful. I'm not making any 100% guarantees here but I can see a bullish move on the EURO coming very very soon.

Let's not forget that the issue/turmoil surrounding Greece has been resolved and a new agreement between Germany and rest of EU: combined IMF and EU aid to Greece would be allowed, if unanimous decision in E-Z countries.

Secondly, the COT report clearly shows that the euro is back to having a record number of...
  • #7,748
  • Mar 28, 2010 5:43am Mar 28, 2010 5:43am
in post 7410 a while ago , i was waiting for GJ to reach 139 area to short it and fortunately this is what has happened , will the market repeat itself again ? well we don't know , but i would be grateful if it does .
waiting for 139
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  • #7,749
  • Mar 28, 2010 7:15am Mar 28, 2010 7:15am
Quoting samer960
hi my friend
for now i agree with u and u are probably right . but later many countries will follow Greece ( many are in the list Italy , Spain , Portugal)
and as a day trader , i will be looking for some price action to short the euro around 1.38 area .
join me we might get some pips
regards
samer
I could do some scalps but not my main positions to the short side until I'm surer.
  • #7,750
  • Mar 28, 2010 7:26am Mar 28, 2010 7:26am
Anyone noticed this inverse HS on EURJPY?

Maybe here's a chance for Whizzo to play some euro strength
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  • #7,751
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:56am Mar 28, 2010 8:56am
Quoting samer960
hi chris
we have a shooting star being formed on monthly . and price broke the daily and weekly trendline .
i am short already and i am aware of the level we have around 12750 .
but the shooting star we have on monthly chart and the candle we just had on weekly is telling me this pair might break 12750 and go much lower , what do u think ?
samer
What I also like about it is that it's WAY overextended. I would agree with the analysis. I also have noticed that AUD/USD is having a hard time making new highs.
  • #7,752
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:59am Mar 28, 2010 8:59am
Quoting o990l6mh
Anyone noticed this inverse HS on EURJPY?

Maybe here's a chance for Whizzo to play some euro strength
It's good that you noticed....however, wait for it to break to be sure about it. Remember, don't anticipate.....react. I get burned every time I anticipate.....

Good eye though.

Chris
  • #7,753
  • Mar 28, 2010 10:07am Mar 28, 2010 10:07am
hi
i might look to short this one around 125 .
anyway as Chris said lets wait and see how it react at this level
samer

Quoting o990l6mh
Anyone noticed this inverse HS on EURJPY?

Maybe here's a chance for Whizzo to play some euro strength
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  • #7,754
  • Mar 28, 2010 10:30am Mar 28, 2010 10:30am
Quoting clockwork71
It's good that you noticed....however, wait for it to break to be sure about it. Remember, don't anticipate.....react. I get burned every time I anticipate.....

Good eye though.

Chris
Yeah, I try only to trade the very best setups so there's no trade for me there. Not yet anyway.

Besides my rules only allow 4% account risk at any one time and I'm already in trades, so I'm just watching and sitting on hands.

Jesse Livermore would be proud
  • #7,755
  • Mar 28, 2010 1:26pm Mar 28, 2010 1:26pm
Another way to play eur upside:

http://i39.tinypic.com/r0b6yo.png
  • #7,756
  • Mar 28, 2010 2:53pm Mar 28, 2010 2:53pm
come one guys, kill that talk of EURO strength, no wonder my short is getting hit....at negative 89 pips before market open.......................

Personally i still see EURO weakness across the board....have a look at EURUSD, EURAUD etc etc and especially EURNZD.......anyways lets wait for market open, though i will be in ma sheets, with u know who.............................n i warn u all kill that talk on EURO strength................

cheers guys...............

Quoting clockwork71
It's good that you noticed....however, wait for it to break to be sure about it. Remember, don't anticipate.....react. I get burned every time I anticipate.....

Good eye though.

Chris
  • #7,757
  • Mar 28, 2010 10:54pm Mar 28, 2010 10:54pm
I think the EUR has to break through the 1.35 area to be convincing in my opinion. Until then.....it's not concerning to me.
  • #7,758
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:12pm Mar 29, 2010 2:12pm
deutsche bank.
possible double-top. divergence. some bearish price action will be a nice short signal.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #7,759
  • Mar 29, 2010 8:16pm Mar 29, 2010 8:16pm
Quoting aserbfx
deutsche bank.
possible double-top. divergence. some bearish price action will be a nice short signal.
If that pinbar printed today gets violated - it's a very bearish signal. Some would call it a "Hanging Man" at that point....and it's bad news.
  • #7,760
  • Mar 29, 2010 8:45pm Mar 29, 2010 8:45pm
Noticed Dreamworks Animation setting up for a big move down.
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