Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 705 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,081
  • Mar 26, 2010 6:23am Mar 26, 2010 6:23am
Quoting acumen
you can learn something from everyone.

secondly... technical analysis fallacy would imply my brand of analysis doesn't work.

so... my ongoing TECHNICAL ANALYSIS is simply a counter view.

i have started many threads... probably some you should visit.

ahh... who are we kidding... you are way to smart for me.
Hi Acumen,

Thanks for stopping by,I've read some of your thread
Quote( this was by Fti who started this thread).
So sad he won't be here anymore for personal reason. Hope he's doing well.
Hi leighsww,
correction if Imay,

this is the style that fti used in training dealers and how fti talks, lol.
fti is not all banks, but a few banks had him for some time.
So there is a circle of these fti type people around, still. hopefully.

Fti used to work in the banks(many banks with at least 30 yrs exp.) and also quite a big position.
You should thank him to have a chance - reading in this thread.

Some in your thread said
Lesson 6: Trade when the banks do.
The banks move this market.

well this trading style is the way of some bankers trade so you should learn from it.(as what you said)
BTW big banks work 24 hrs(3shifts)

Cheers,
  • #14,082
  • Edited 10:05am Mar 26, 2010 9:38am | Edited 10:05am
To make a long story short... I've been in forex for a bout 3-4 years but only serious and live for about 2 years. Heavily reliant on indicators and systems in the beginning, I started going nekid (except for a 15 min 34ema for ref points) about a year ago but was not making any significant headway in my trading (just about in profit)...until a series of eureka moments found in this thread.

It's taken me 4 months to read or should I say study this thread (trading and taking notes and references but admittedly skipping some of the youtube stuff ) but I never checked to see how long it was....940 odd pages later here I am! It's been so enjoyable and refreshing all the way.. Anyway.....I can't believe the main man has gone walkabout just as I finish it! but i just want to say...

FTI- you are a gentleman and a scholar. I can see you are a genuine, kind, generous and remarkable person (unlike a few that come and go who are just parasites or unremarkable) I wish you success in whatever journey you have taken on and want to sincerely thank you for all you have given here (I hope you pop in for a read and joke). Be assured that I have given 100% thought in your methodology and I can say that I am in awe.

To the rest of the regulars posters, well done on keeping the thread alive and for carrying on the fti style.
  • #14,083
  • Mar 26, 2010 12:16pm Mar 26, 2010 12:16pm
Now that we (being a not very clever and rather ignorant bunch of bumpkins) are left unguided in the cold and unforgiving world can we please talk markets again?

Honestly, I wasn't expecting that a joint solution would come in hand for Greece. By the way the E$ ranged today it seems the market did not either
Hope you all traded well
  • #14,084
  • Mar 26, 2010 12:40pm Mar 26, 2010 12:40pm
eyes are killin me , stopped trading a while ago ...
goodnite all and have good weekends ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #14,085
  • Mar 26, 2010 4:07pm Mar 26, 2010 4:07pm
Quoting Dl17
To make a long story short... I've been in forex for a bout 3-4 years but only serious and live for about 2 years. Heavily reliant on indicators and systems in the beginning, I started going nekid (except for a 15 min 34ema for ref points) about a year ago but was not making any significant headway in my trading (just about in profit)...until a series of eureka moments found in this thread.

It's taken me 4 months to read or should I say study this thread (trading and taking notes and references but admittedly skipping some of the youtube stuff...
Welcome and we look forward to having you around. Thanks for reading the thread first, and good luck to you.
  • #14,086
  • Mar 26, 2010 5:07pm Mar 26, 2010 5:07pm
Quoting Gro
Dear thread

I thank you for everything.
I thank you also for the stupid questions, are also needed.
I thank you for best people, who helped me and maybe even not know

this.
I thank one best man who is my "Man of the Mountain".
I became invincible, and the only one who can beat me ... myself.

For newbie:
"good eyes"...
Nice post, Gro. Please keep posting.

@ mahes
Are you OK? Worried about your eyes, have you been to a doc?

kind regards
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #14,087
  • Mar 27, 2010 12:59am Mar 27, 2010 12:59am
Quoting maheswara
eyes are killin me , stopped trading a while ago ...
goodnite all and have good weekends ...
Also, check out the HP w2448hc monitor. A lot of traders have said that it is the best for their eyes. It is a 24" High Definition screen. I am very happy with mine and the picture is crystal clear.

Kind regards, Ray
  • #14,088
  • Mar 27, 2010 7:11am Mar 27, 2010 7:11am
@DA,
yeah just little tired I guess ... but 12-14hrs a day in front of multiple screens take a lot out of u ... it takes a second to actually focus on long distance object now ...
@Ray,
will check out , mine is 22" , pretty happy with it , maybe need to adjust brightness contrast setting ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #14,089
  • Mar 27, 2010 7:20am Mar 27, 2010 7:20am
Quoting maheswara
@DA,
yeah just little tired I guess ... but 12-14hrs a day in front of multiple screens take a lot out of u ... it takes a second to actually focus on long distance object now ...
@Ray,
will check out , mine is 22" , pretty happy with it , maybe need to adjust brightness contrast setting ...
Mahes,

The screen is just one component, lighting, back lighting reflections, distance, screen color.... more. Also you need to look away from time to time and focus on other objects in the room. Do some research on computer eye strain.

protect your health.

regards
  • #14,090
  • Mar 27, 2010 8:49am Mar 27, 2010 8:49am
A little tardy but wanted to mention an observation about EUR/USD futures and the Treasury auction relationship. There seems to be a consistent effort to push USD price up before the auctions in an effort to ensure a successful sale. This manipulation pushes EUR down for a 1-2 day period then it surges for a day or two. This has happened on the last two auctions now. I trade what I see in real time but it doesnt hurt to be aware of the direction of "tide" when "surfing".

My two cents worth in an effort to contribute something back to this thread and to keep it continuing.....

Druid

“You win battles by knowing the enemy’s timing, and using a timing which the enemy does not expect.” – Miyamoto Musashi.
  • #14,091
  • Edited 9:17am Mar 27, 2010 9:13am | Edited 9:17am
Quoting auxesis
Mahes,

The screen is just one component, lighting, back lighting reflections, distance, screen color.... more. Also you need to look away from time to time and focus on other objects in the room. Do some research on computer eye strain.

protect your health.

regards
Critical to look away from screen every 30 min or less to avoid eye muscles freezing at a fixed focal length. Eye strain from looking at screen(s) for extended periods has been a problem for designers/engineers using CAD since its introduction in the early-80s. Soft back or overhead lighting can help but allowing the eye to relax and view a more distant object/place helps most of all. PLEASE take care of your eyes...you only get two! Also reduce as much white space on your screen(s) as possible.

Druid

"Whatever your present environment may be, you will fall, remain, or rise with your thoughts--your vision, your ideal. You will become as small as your controlling desire, as great as your dominant aspiration".
~James Allen
  • #14,092
  • Mar 27, 2010 5:39pm Mar 27, 2010 5:39pm
Quoting maheswara
@DA,
yeah just little tired I guess ... but 12-14hrs a day in front of multiple screens take a lot out of u ... it takes a second to actually focus on long distance object now ...
@Ray,
will check out , mine is 22" , pretty happy with it , maybe need to adjust brightness contrast setting ...
My friend, take care of your eyes. It's pretty easy to find time each trading day to step away. I try to do it several times a day to clear my head and get some blood flowing to someplace other that my seat -- lol. A cold wash cloth is nice for a few minutes just to relax the eye muscles.
  • #14,093
  • Mar 27, 2010 8:49pm Mar 27, 2010 8:49pm
Dear friends,

I was born in Fx world since last friday full of confidence - 80% successfully rate of choosing direction
First of all I like to thank GEfx and ofcos Fti also everybody in the thread.
As GEfx mentioned below:-

If you can make money consistently by risking 2% of your account on each trade (ie, on a $2,000 account balance, you can trade $2/pip for 20 pips, every day for 3 months), then you can start thinking about how to make progression work. You might find that the success of 3 months of trading will open your eyes to how the market really works and how you might take advantage of this new knowledge.

More importantly, you will learn how the market moves against you and how to keep your losses to a minimum (if you are risking 2%, you must exit each trade when the dollar loss = $40, every time, without fail). Better yet, over that 3 months, you may learn to exit a trade when you are only 10 or 15 pips down because you come to understand when a trade is going to run against you, rather than hang on to it and suffer big losses.

I was working on very hard on that. Rite now 80% of the time I choose the right direction. I loss 20% the profit would be 60%(Guessing work). the 20% lost just thinking of pay to landlord & outgoing as most businesses operate.
I've been thinking the whole week whether to talk about rescue or not since Fti wasn't here. Then I've seen Mas mentioned about eyes problem and you guys talk about long hours on the screen. I would like to apologise to Fti - you are my teacher I respect you a lot- your time in here guiding all of us to be successful & most guys in here are doing very well.

I think Rescue is suitable for banker only cos:-
1. to rescue needs a lot back up money & also time consuming.
2. They are dealing with big money(not their money) but we are thin pocket compare to them.
3. The way they work always keeping the book in positive so no matter how long it takes (3shifts). but us - we are one man band need to eat & sleep & also look after our family.
4. They're working for the bank with salary & some with bonus or pay rise so there emotion is lesser than us if they are making loss so what? they still have their salary & the most there will be no bonus or no pay rise. BUT loss money is big deal to us.

I'm very sorry some of you guys are very successful on rescue operation but me I feel a lot of stress(even on demo) & my pocket is thin when big wave came if I lost it going to be big like Fti said 'bite the bullet'.

Further more as time goes by we should work lesser not longer to be successfull in this business. Look at most successful business operators they are not going work long hrs they use their brians to make dicisions they play golf enjoy life. we 12-15 hrs I don't think is rite.
I'm very sorry this's just my input(thinking). Well may be I'm wrong I'm sorry.

But attacking is very good for us to use.

I trade only 2-4 hrs only due my full time job is very hard(then I started to think of this question. And also I heard many ppl said Flip & also Rescue only last solution - well since flip & rescue is only last solution bos we are ging to flip any way so why not we use mental SL).
My trade have to be more$$$ in a lot no rescue but attack yes. If I won 80% lost 20% I still had 60% profit but I should work lesser hrs & also lesser stress bcos I use mental SL.(so the loss is less) and my mental SL is no more than 15 pips ( learned from GEfx)

Again I'm very sorry if many of you think I'm wrong. It's just my opinion.
We should work lesser as the time goes by- but ofcos if you(some) enjoy & love what you are doing(long hrs on the screen) some ppl love their work I'm very happy for you - to do what you love (I sincerely mean it).

Best regards,
  • #14,094
  • Mar 27, 2010 11:51pm Mar 27, 2010 11:51pm
Quoting pete.alfa
Dear friends,

Best regards,
yes pete sir , the bank has far more resources than wat we small private trader has , applying the whole MO and its procedures are not the way to go and fti sir said so himself , u need to tweak and adjust it to ur own capacity without throwing its core concept

off course like everything else , a paramount of risk control is necessary , whatever the method you use ...

what exactly is the core concept of the MO ?

in one word , flexibility

you will be able to see it all when u are flexible and trade in the flow ...

rigidity creates a lot of problem that breeds bad mindsets ...
for one rigidity doesnt allow u to fail enough number of times ... and we learn most from our failures ...
rigidity protects you , but it does so in the bad way ... the similar way stoplosses protect you ...

u can be rigid , but dont be overly rigid , u can be flexible , but dont overdo it as well ,
there are no ultimate right or ultimate wrong ...

if you choose to do mechanical way , at least do it in the best way , that is to ride the trend infinitely and cut ur losses short (add to winners and reduce losers)

good luck to you pete sir

enjoy the weekend

ps: my eyes are not dead yet lol , just little tired , a price one pays when u married the screen I guess
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #14,095
  • Mar 28, 2010 12:52pm Mar 28, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting maheswara
@DA,
yeah just little tired I guess ... but 12-14hrs a day in front of multiple screens take a lot out of u ... it takes a second to actually focus on long distance object now ...
@Ray,
will check out , mine is 22" , pretty happy with it , maybe need to adjust brightness contrast setting ...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #14,096
  • Mar 28, 2010 5:29pm Mar 28, 2010 5:29pm
Wow, this is some gap guys...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #14,097
  • Mar 28, 2010 6:17pm Mar 28, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting pete.alfa
Dear friends,

I was born in Fx world since last friday full of confidence - 80% successfully rate of choosing direction
First of all I like to thank GEfx and ofcos Fti also everybody in the thread.
As GEfx mentioned below:-

If you can make money consistently by risking 2% of your account on each trade (ie, on a $2,000 account balance, you can trade $2/pip for 20 pips, every day for 3 months), then you can start thinking about how to make progression work. You might find that the success of 3 months......
pete.alfa , you have great win percentage there, if it is on a real account it's even greater. If average pips per trade are about equal you have a very, very, very profitable trading style, so keep up the good work

I think even 50% is enough to be profitable, since every time you enter a trade you gonna risk losing less than you will win if you are right. I believe no prudent trader will risk to lose 50$ to get 20$. Having a 15 pips mental stop means that you will spend more time finding a better entry than to rescue bad entries, this is more preferable to me, especially after my one week full of rescues.

[color=blue]I think Rescue is suitable for banker only cos:-
1. to rescue needs a lot back up money & also time consuming.
2. They are dealing with big money(not their money) but we are thin pocket compare to them.
3. The way they work always keeping the book in positive so no matter how long it takes (3shifts). but us - we are one man band need to eat & sleep & also look after our family.
4. They're working for the bank with salary & some with bonus or pay rise so there emotion is lesser than us if they are making loss so what? they still have their salary & the most there will be no bonus or no pay rise. BUT loss money is big deal to us.

I think rescues are proper for retail traders but they have to be adapted to our accounts.If my first position ties up big part of my capital, I don't even think about rescueing I just cut it if things go wrong. I guess banks can afford several days rescue operations but I certainly can't and I won't try it anymore

Fti style is 110% professional, but even he said somewhere in the begining of the thread that he was demoing to untrain himself, which I think means going from bank side to the retail side of trading.

I don't believe I can learn to dance like fti, but I can use the core concepts(as maheswara said) and improve my trading skills. I have to practice a lot the things I learned in this thread and I want to thank sincerely to fti and all the others who have kept the thread alive.

That is my humble opinion.

Regards, Mytbo
  • #14,098
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:20pm Mar 28, 2010 8:20pm
Quoting maheswara
yes pete sir , the bank has far more resources than wat we small private trader has , applying the whole MO and its procedures are not the way to go and fti sir said so himself , u need to tweak and adjust it to ur own capacity without throwing its core concept

off course like everything else , a paramount of risk control is necessary , whatever the method you use ...

what exactly is the core concept of the MO ?

in one word , flexibility

you will be able to see it all when u are flexible and trade in the flow ...

rigidity creates a lot of...
Hi Maheswara,
I've learned a lot from Fti & many friends in here - to find the my way how to dance properly. You are also my teacher please please don't call me sir.
At least nowaday I can feel the flow I can dance following the flow-without this thread I don't think I can make it so soon. and ofcos screen time as what you said.
I'm not trying to say that I'm very smart intelligent or some thing like that (infact I'm just average person) but I just try to put my opinion may be I might get some feedback.

I think if we want to 'trade for living' our live should be much better than working for ppl. So I think( my opinion) we should not work more than 8 hrs a day(sorry I'm working 10-12hrs a day at the moment).Ofcos there are many ppls love their jobs they can spend hrs & hrs doing the work with pleasure. To me I enjoy trading but not too some extend.(if not I won't be still around until now after 3-4 yrs )

Again please don't misunderstand me I love this thread & this thread like home to me it's just one input of one student.
Again Thanks to fti,maheswara,,lusan,GEfx,Auxseis & many guys in this fantastic & interesting thread.

Best regards,
  • #14,099
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:21pm Mar 28, 2010 8:21pm
  •  acim
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'd rather be stacking :-P | 46 Posts
maheswara ...... take care of yourself :-)


Interesting thoughts from another thread !


"" It is ultimately about ego. So many get caught up in trying to be so clever with their charts and indicators, in an effort to win all the time. I certainty did myself, revelling in my winning trades and chastising myself for the losers. "I should have seen the resistance at 1.3729, and it was obviously breaking out of the trendline, espechially when I draw it like that. How could I have missed that factor - I'll never make that mistake again." This, however, implicitly assumes you are somehow responsible for that loss; that you were somehow ever actually in control of what the market was going to do. It is a dangerous mentality to have, and one that is unfortunately born from the equally instrumental realization that you can actually make money from trading the market. I even think the basic tool of drawing a support or resistance line on a chart is potentially hazardous, as its exact placement is really so arbitrary, but once you put it there it suddenly seems so authoritative - like a constraint that you have craftily imposed upon the market. I prefer to passively OBSERVE concepts like support and resistance in the functioning of my systems, rather than trading based on my imperfect, arbitrary, and surely biased understanding of their specific placements. Unlike many traders, I don't even set targets for trades, since I believe that even that would be forecasting. I exit the trade reactively when the market tells me to. It could be at a large profit, a small profit, breakeven, or a small loss - and I couldn't care less about which one it turns out to be on any given trade; only that the statistical outcome over many, many trades is within the appropriate range. One of the shrewdest statements that I ever heard on this was that the only way to make a million dollars in trading (as opposed to investing) is to make 10 million dollars and lose 9 million dollars (in concept, at least: some of you may well be making 10 million and losing only 8, or 7, or 6.2...) ""
  • #14,100
  • Edited 9:08pm Mar 28, 2010 8:24pm | Edited 9:08pm
Inserted Video


History Channel SunZi Bing Fa 1 Of 10

Inserted Video


History Channel SunZi Bing Fa 2 Of 10
Inserted Video
16 traders viewing now