Check out my trades

I discovered forex five years ago. I have come to FF Plenty of times to find advice or some magical system that would make millions for me. Tried few of them and wasn't happy of results. And rest of them were too complicated for me to understand (maybe cuz I'm stupid). So, now I have developed my own simple system. Well actually 10 of them. My thinking is, if all of these 10 systems would have performed well last five years (backtesting), what are the chances that more than half of them would loose me money. This would be analogous to having invested into ten shares instead of few...Well you get my point. So, I'm opening this thread to keep track of performance of my systems. That's about it, so now i'll just wait for the next signal. I have one important rule: no trading on Fridays.

These systems are mechanical systems combined with statistical analysis and are currently tested on demo.

Example of statistical analysis:
If there is a price movement of zz pips at xx:xx, what are the chances of price moving yy pips more? (Based on five year data)

System 1:
02/08/10 Monday 5:05
Placed an BUY EURUSD entry order @ 1.3663 Stop @ 1.3643 (Entry order1)

Entry order triggered at ??:?? Stop was reached at 7:30

Results for System 1: -20 pips

SYS2
Entry order 2:
02/08/10
Sell EURUSD Entry order @ 1.3690 STOP @ 1.3712

Entry order triggered 10:45

Trade closed 10:50 at 1.36948

SYS2: -4.8pips

Was supposed to cancel entry order @ 10:30
Well, that's why you have to demo b4 going live.

Was away from computer from 1PM and 12PM. missed couple of trades. If I only could stay awake for 24h/4.

System5

EURUSD BUY Entry order @ 1.36931 Stop @ 1.36731

5:55 Entry order cancelled

System3
Entry order EURUSD Sell @ 1.3693 stop @ 1.3733 target 1.3676
7:55 Entry order cancelled

System4
7:28
Entry 0rder EURUSD BUY @ 1.3690 stop @ 1.3670
7:55 Entry order cancelled

Didn't follow market on Wednesday. Busy doing other things than trading. Missed some good signals.

Missed 1 good signal this morning:

System1:
Sell signal @ 7:05
Close @ 10:50
45 pips

Reason for missing: I was sleeping.
Is that a good enough reason?
Keeping track of 10 systems is a daunting task, so, I'm going to drop five of them.
System1 consists of seven subsystems: Sub1, Sub2, Sub3, Sub4, Sub5, Sub6, Sub7

Wow, this thread had slipped all the way to the third page. It's not ready to be put to dusty shelves of lost archives of FF journals yet.

Plus olympics are over so, i should be able to find time to post my progress here. Also, I see there are almost 300 views of my journal, so that should further motivate me to keep it updated. Altough, I don't know why anyone would be interested in it. It's not like I'm going to give away my trading secrets. Forex world is a dog eat dog world, and I wish to keep my edge.

Enough of nonsense. I added 35 more subsystems last week. It's not really that hard to keep up with so many systems when not all of them are traded at the same time. Each subsystem is traded only when it's opportune time to start trading it, at less opportune time it's not traded at all. All systems are indicator based mechanical systems. All of them are 8 years back tested and found to be making 200 to 500 pips every year (hypothetical results). If you are afraid of loosing money, having multiple systems is way to go. It also makes it harder to make huge returns but so what? I'm not here to gamble, I'm here to make money. Forget 100% a month, 100% a year is enough to turn $10000 into $1000000 in 10 years (seven years if you can avoid taxes). O.K. I just downloaded last weeks data and I' m going to analyze it to see which systems are active for the next week.

Since the name of the thread is "check out my trades" I thought I might post an example:


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1268471006


One of my systems gave an entry signal at 1.36305, Target was at 1.3673.

Later I noticed a peak at A, assumed there would be stops at B and Sharks would go for these stops. Decided to moved target to 1.36640.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1268472874

Well as you can see target was hit, but so would have the previous target. Didn't realise there would be stops at C also. Didn't stick to plan and it cost me 9 pips.

I was just looking at some other threads in journal section, and noticed some of them are giving live calls so, I thought maybe thats's what I need to do to make my thread more interesting. So,here we go:

SYS2: EURUSD SELLEntry @ 1.37088 Stop @1.3730 2MINILOTS

If Entrys are not hit within certian period, they are cancelled.
Higher propability trades are taken with multiple lots.

What I wish to see is monthly, maybe weekly, consistent returns in dollar amount, not in pips.

The signal above is a result of purely mechanical systems, but I get some confirmation from fibo also:

signal was given by 4 different sub systems, so just opened 4 minilots:

BUY at 1.3692 STOP @ 1.3645 target @ 1.3708
UPDATE:Stop @1.3650
Stop above is emergency stop; position closed more likely when target is hit or there is a close signal.



Sell entry at 1.37088 changed to 1 minilot

There was a mistake on post #10 and I just made the correction in that post.

Trade 1: BUY at 1.3692 STOP @ 1.3645 [color=#22229c]target @ 1.3708[/color]
Target hit @ 1.3708 (4minilots) @ 7:00

Trade 2: Sell Entry @1.37088 activated @ 7:00 Stop @1.3731
Stop hit 7:45 EST

I found this interesting:
There's a bottom @ A. There were propably stops below line E. Sharks go for these stops @ C. My stop was just out of reach (D). It was placed by my system, and my system doesn't know what is stophunting. Don't know if it would have worked if trade was taken on live account. That's why I prefer mental stops.

EURUSD

Sell @ 3720 3minilots

Target @ 37025

Stop @ 3750

Stop is updated regularly

Well, that was humbling, picture says it all. This time my system put me exactly where sharks wanted me to be. Soon after entry my stops were spiked out. I Believe I can avoid majority of news spikes by not trading these systems thursdays and fridays. I knew there would be occasional spikes other weekdays too. By demotrading, I hope to find out other news spike events that my systems would be vulnerable to. Note to my self: Do not trade certain subsystems on FOMC days. There was another signal later on that would have made some profit pips, nullifying this loss, but missed it because I was sleeping. There were some profitable signals on wednesday too, but just didn't have time to trade.

This week was a sad week. No signals, except during times when I avoid trading because of fear of spikes. There were no spikes except thursday 12:05 that I suspect of being stop hunting spike (pic1). No spikes on friday (pic2). Still trying to figure out what to post here. Maybe I should stop coming to FF and spend more time trying to develop better systems and learning how to create EAs.

EURUSD

4 signals=> Buy 4 minilots at 34865 (23:19)

CLOSED @ 35043 (1:55) 17.8pips X 4

Missed signal: SELL EURUSD @ 35040 1 minilot (1:55) CLOSE @ 35281 (2:25)
-24.1pips X 1

EURUSD

Sell 2 minilots at 34719 (5:55)
Stop at 35050
Target at 34486



Closed at 34490 (9:41) 22.9pips X 2