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The Dance

  • #321
  • Edited 10:43am Mar 25, 2010 9:38am | Edited 10:43am
good day gentlemen, this is a trade that ive taken earlier. hope its according to the rules. and did anyone else catch this one, i just noticed i entered 20min prior to a news event, which clay said we should wait till after news but i completely forgot about the news event...oops. but trade still worked out, in good pips right now.

cheers
dane
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  • #322
  • Mar 25, 2010 9:51am Mar 25, 2010 9:51am
Quoting zznbrm
Many times when the touch of the 10 ma happens, the steep angle of the 10 MA is completely gone. This is less of a problem with the 35 and 50 MAs for obvious reasons.

You could consider changing the 10 EMA to use Open price or add shift=1. Doing this creates a static MA for the current bar. Then it may be easier to judge the touches. It also makes backtesting (visually and otherwise) much easier and more accurate.

Also, may want to consider using the velocity of the MAs instead of the angle tool to judge the "steepness".

You just have to...
Thanks for that. The only trouble is, changing these setting takes the MA too far away from the touches. Also, in a very strong trend, pa retraces only a little, more off of the 5 ma than anything else and then shoots off up.

We can identify when price is trending sharply from the 10 ema angle, I just want to try and get my head around some more solid rules for entering during these bursts for maximum R/R.
  • #323
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:52am Mar 25, 2010 10:52am
[QUOTE.DaNiSh101;3584118]good day gentlemen, this is a trade that ive taken earlier. hope its according to the rules. and did anyone else catch this one, i just noticed i entered 20min prior to a news event, which clay said we should wait till after news but i completely forgot about the news event...oops. but trade still worked out, in good pips right now.

cheers
dane[/quote]

Dan. i did see that set-up but was afraid, moreso since it took more than two candle to get there and i did'nt want to loose wat i had made. Nice trade now i wish i took it... Eclayf: Thanks for your analysis on my chart yesterday. I made 16 pips off the e/u, i was afraid to lose those pips so i just exited, i was then determined to trail the usd/jpy, using the 15m chart and that went up to 20+ pips but took me out at +7... Green pips is green pips. Today was great too.. I did made some good trade from eur/jpy bounce off 10ema, that was a 23 pips trade in less than 20 mins. I would have taken the usd/jpy setup but was afraid of given bak wat i had, now am regretting it was a good 20+ pips atleast, that combined with that gu trade dan took would have made today a lot better but am excited, i just ran out of my daily internet subscription so am using my my phone to post this but can't upload chart, with the trade i made yesterday and today( i big pip gain was a trade call from bullbear in cable thread thou) i will be able to make a one month subscription soon. (Down here (nigeria) internet is a luxury, just a college student of which the price for subscription is equal to my monthly allowance)... I so much love this strategy, i am yet to see a loss and out of 5 trades ( 1 break even +1) and my drawdown highest was just 9pips, given the small account (100usd) i do risk more at tyms but this strategy has earned me about 40% in two days, my stoploss is yet to exceed 12pips. So i am kind of cormfotable taking more risk. But now my risk is getting better now. Thanks again but i might not be posting again till next week. Happy piping everyone...
  • #324
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:05am Mar 25, 2010 11:05am
Quoting yunielescaz
hi DANCERS!
Too funny,,, I was actually looking for a post from someone named "Dancers."

Quoting yunielescaz
hi clay i finally understood why u are having problems with 5EMA bounces. it repaints horribly....
The real issue for me yunie, is that a 5 EMA "touch" just isn't as strong as a 10 EMA "touch" is. Yes, it does wiggle around a lot, but that isn't the real issue. There are some "tell tale" signs of a "touch" that actually did touch the line in "real time" that you can see pretty clearly after the fact. When "real" touch happens, the MA most often will have a "hump" in it from where it slowed a tiny bit. If the retrace to the EMA was really fast, (1 bar, or 2 in a really strong move) there many not be a hump left over. The other is that often these "wick through" a bit, that's part of the reason for an SL of about 10 to 12 pips.

Quoting Trotty
....The angle of the ma's seems vital in these. They need to be steep, really steep to keep the trade secure. Would extending the ma trajectories with a hand-drawn line give us a more sure trade (just following the current angle and drawing up or down the chart in that direction? They're hard to take but I'm sure even with the odd loser you will have, most of these trades will net you 2%-6% on a 2% risk and they happen all the time, every day. They should be no brainers but we're not talking about them much....
The angle IS critical, it's the most critical part of the trade. That's actually part of the rule in the manual. No more than 2 bars and a VERY steep angle... the steeper the better, anything less than about 25% I would be very, very cautions about the trade.

Remember, there is a "Trendline by angle" tool I discussed a ways back in the thread and actually used it in the images on the thread to demonstrate it's use. I think I did it also in the manual. I'd have to look at it again to be sure I did.

As for maximizing them, just follow the rules and look for P/A for potential exits around RN lines or at a RECENT S/R level such as a wick tip from a daily, hourly candle, or a place where P/A created a new S/R level RECENTLY to the chart's left, then tighten the SL a bit. Otherwise, ride it "by the rules."

Quoting zznbrm
Many times when the touch of the 10 ma happens, the steep angle of the 10 MA is completely gone....... You could consider changing the 10 EMA to use Open price or add shift=1. Doing this creates a static MA for the current bar...
Yes, there are times when it "seems" to flatten a bit on the SECOND bar to retrace, but rarely ever on the first one. That "flattening" is what caused the "hump" I talked about earlier in this post. I WOULD BE VERY, VERY careful messing with the settings on the Moving averages. This strategy was designed to be a "plain jane," "everyone can use it" strategy "out of the box."

Not sure how you would even determine the "momentum of the average" without one of those lying oscillators, which are STRICTLY FORBIDDEN on this thread. The fancier you make it the more it breaks down. Just learn a bit more discretion, such as when a bar races back to "touch" a RN level, but doesn't make it to the MA, it's probably a safe trade as it has touched S/R. REMEMBER, all of the lines are NOTHING MORE than S/R levels in one way or another. The Moving Averages are "floating" or "active" S/R levels that follow price and are based on it.

Keep it simple guys, it really will pay of big.

I didn't trade much last night,,, needed the sleep. Still have a few lingering things to handle for some reason so I may be slower in responding today or tomorrow, but looks like people are starting to get a good handle on this, so it shouldn't be much of an issue, and as time progresses, the goal is for several to be nailing this so the thread can take on a life of it's own and people can learn from other people, not just me.

Talk to you later
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  • #325
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:20am Mar 25, 2010 11:20am
Quoting Naijapipholi
....did'nt want to loose wat i had made. Nice trade now i wish i took it...
Don't worry about missing trades, and DO NOT allow yourself to experience "fear" when trading. BOTH will cause you problems. Just trust the strategy and keep moving.

Quoting Naijapipholi
...i will be able to make a one month subscription soon. (Down here (nigeria) internet is a luxury, just a college student of which the price for subscription is equal to my monthly allowance)...
No worries, I understand, and hope others do to. I have lived in countries where people lived waaaaaaaaaaay below the standard most Americans could even imagine, and I understand your issue, but you also, WILL get there. It just takes some patience and a bit of perseverance.

Quoting Naijapipholi
....i am yet to see a loss and out of 5 trades ( 1 break even +1) and my drawdown highest was just 9pips, given the small account (100usd) i do risk more at tyms but this strategy has earned me about 40% in two days, my stoploss is yet to exceed 12pips. So i am kind of cormfotable taking more risk. But now my risk is getting better now. Thanks again but i might not be posting again till next week. Happy piping everyone...
No Need to take large risks. As you can see, the strategy is pretty solid. The ONLY times I get into problems is when I try to "push it" or "force" gains that aren't there. IF you stick to the basics, and trade only when you see the perfect signals, you can continue this sort of gain for a very, very long time then start minimizing risk by dropping he % a bit and actually have LESS risk, but MORE gains in "real" money and that is the goal, consistent income to live on with little risk.


By the way, I have a friend, (Chike Nwasike) who is from a little place north of Lagos. Don't speak much of if myself, but he did teach me a small amount.

"Chuku GoZiege Nwanim!"
  • #326
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:31am Mar 25, 2010 11:31am
Quoting DaNiSh101
this is a trade that ive taken earlier. hope its according to the rules. and did anyone else catch this one, i just noticed i entered 20min prior to a news event,
Hi Dane, the entry is an "OK" entry but not a great one. IT IS acceptable "by the rules" BECAUSE IT IS ALSO a rejection of the H1 line that corresponded to it. It "looks" like it violates the rules, but remember the hither TF chart signals always supercede the lower one.

As for the news,,,, I often forget to check it myself. On this one you were probably ok as I think you had time to move your SL to at least BE.

NOTICE here, that the bars "bunched up" around a confliuence of several MA's. Always indicates that price will break pretty solidly on one direction of another pretty soon.

Just be careful with these types of "marginal" entries. The work out often, but can bit you too.
  • #327
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:53pm Mar 25, 2010 12:53pm
Hi Guys, just got a PM from one here who hasn't posted yet, but it has some neat stuff that needs to be addressed and will help everyone, so I decided to answer here.

By the way, feel free to PM, I will try to answer everyone, but when you have lots of questions, often so does everyone else. So feel free to ask as well.

Quoting dogfight
...the sma35/ema50 doesn't work THAT fantastically for me. Maybe I'm missing out on some details (the relationship between them), maybe we could discuss that a little?..
There is sort of an interplay between the two that is pretty strong on all time frames and all currencies for the most part. Some, obviously are easier to see than others as not all currencies are traded as often and the higher time frames tak muuuuuuuuuch longer to develop and require much larger SL setting. The MAIN thing to remember is that when they start to "split" it means price is slowing SIGNIFICANTLY and you need to be aware of that. WHEN THEY FLATTEN, you are entering a pretty strong area of consolidation where price is going to go sideways and you need to be careful in that as well. Then, when they start to narrow price is arriving at a "break point" of sorts and there will be a move "reasonably" soon. To be honest, at this point of "narrowing" one could place an order above and below the area to catch the break out, but I have never really been comfortable with that sort of trading. Not yet at least, but Endroute does it fairly often and it will be (eventually) part of the advanced rules when we get there.

Quoting dogfight
...Your mastertrades come from constrainment. Unfortunately, I'm having HUGE difficulties trading them.
As the markets change, certain types of trades are MORE PREDOMINANT as signals. When I started down this road, constrainment trades were more predominant and I called them the "Master Trades" but as time has progressed, the "Touch" trades have taken over and are now more predominant. In fact, now that I think of it, "touch" trades are probably much more common overall because they can happen several times during a move, where as constrainment usually is the START of a move.

Quoting dogfight
...more importantly, the 'touches' on the ema10s on the m5 and m15 seem to do the trick for me. On g/j, if ema10 or ema21's pointing at one o'clock, I wait for price to retrace to either ema before taking it for 10pips or more. Preferably near the beginning of a significant trend. S/L's about 5-10pips away. I also look at the general trend on m15 and/or h1.
Perfect explanation of how to "look" at these types of trades dogfight. AND, for some, one signal will "jump off the chart" faster than another type. I like country two step and waltz for dancing, but some prefer foxtrot, box step, square dancing or even polka. We are all made a bit differently and if you find that one signal is much easier for you to see than another one TRADE IT! DO WHAT WORKS FOR YOU,,, that is what "The Dance" is all about. You take the basics, stick to them until you master them, or the parts of them that work the best for YOU, then you begin the process of "making it your own" as stated in the back part of the manual.

Quoting dogfight
...The reason why I do this is because 1) I have difficulties trading constrainment 2) they provide plenty of opportunities, allowing me to pick and choose I've been through some of Endroute's posts and it seems that he is doing it very frequently on the 5min timeframe. It should be worth noting that usually I'll lock in with 10-15pips profit. I'm trying to master the ema10 touches so the maximization of pips would come in later.
Be careful on M5, it moves a bit differently, but if used ONLY to fine tune the M15 entries, you should be fine. Great way to lock in the pips and good levels to choose to do it. In fact, though I haven't yet talked about it, this is very similar to what Endroute does and what RyanMCD does as well.

Quoting dogfight
...That being said, other than the 2-bar-rule and a steep angle, what are the chances of improving one's success rate? Also, the london open tends to rocket. I'm trying to figure out a way to capitalize on it based on the 10ema, possibly the 5ema or 21ema. Any suggestions would be appreciated.
Over time, one develop's an "intuition" about the really good trades, BUT it's ALL BASED on your experience with P/A and how it moves around the lines. There will be times in the future where you take a trade because you KNOW it's a good one, it won't "fit" exactly the rules, but it WILL work out really well. That is what discretion is all about. The only way to really maximize any of this is SCREEN TIME and LOTS of it. That is why I recommend the Simulator so much.

Quoting dogfight
...I guess there's no need to say good trading since its taken for granted you are doing fantastic! .... Looking forward to learn from you! Regards, Raymond
This part is the best part for me. I do "OK" but NOT fantastic, not yet. Part of the reason I am sharing this is a VERY selfish one, it helps ME grow to do this. The more charts and posts I have to focus on and analyze "by the rules" the MORE it FORCES ME to focus and get better at my strategy and craft.

As I said in post 1, I AM NOT a guru, I HAVE NOT mastered trading, but I AM getting much, much closer and though I still have some really nasty days, I NOW KNOW WHY they happen. I can look at the chart, my entries and see IMMEDIATELY whether or not I made a good trade. In fact, there have been many times when I took an entry and just as immediately got OUT taking my loss of the spread only, wondering what the &%@#@$$%% I was thinking. But then I also IMMEDIATELY analyze my chart "by the rules" again to try to figure out what I was NOT seeing that made me take that particular trade. Often, it had NOTHING TO DO with the charts and was more about my own psychology, wantint to "hurry" a trade, or to "not miss" one. BOTH of which are WRONG way thinking and something I ahve to guard agianst pretty hard.

This whole strategy and process forces me to analyze and focus on MY trading a lot more and "why" one worked and one didn't.

THAT is also a goal here, for people to get to that point where they are "self teaching" and growing ON THEIR OWN and sharing with others so BOTH can continue growing.

For example, Mikali sent me an email saying he would like to post more and help out with some comments from time to time. WHAT A WONDERFUL development. He has been working really, really hard with this for a long time and has been through tons of charts with me and though he isn't a "master" (none of us are) his insight would help many here.

Keep up the good work guys, and great comments and questions.
  • #328
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:24pm Mar 25, 2010 1:24pm
Sir,

That was a very detailed reply, Thank You

I'll be looking forward to the advanced methods regarding the ema10 on m5 and m15!

Actually, I do try to take as much discretion away as possible. This will ensure (hopefully) that I do not over-trade should I not be dancing with the markets. Unfortunately we have to look at a variety of factors on choosing our trades, hence I agree with the amount of screen time needed to 'mechanize' our brains into seeing the necessary factors (round numbers, confluence, avg trend range, etc) at a glance.


Raymond
  • #329
  • Edited 10:09pm Mar 25, 2010 4:43pm | Edited 10:09pm
Quoting dogfight
...I'll be looking forward to the advanced methods regarding the ema10 on m5 and m15!
Hi Raymond. First let me say again that it will be quite some time before we begin talks of any "advanced" rules and MOSTLY those will be using things like M5 to "fine tune" an entry into an existing move, using the tips of Daily and Hourly wicks as S/R levels, "seeing" a few other RECENT P/A based S/R levels and so on. There will be more discussion on the best way to "time" a trade, which hours work best "normally" and how to make sure your SL is the closest possible to a strong entry so you can maintain very small SL settings and so on.

Quoting dogfight
...Unfortunately we have to look at a variety of factors on choosing our trades, hence I agree with the amount of screen time needed to 'mechanize' our brains into seeing the necessary factors (round numbers, confluence, avg trend range, etc) at a glance.
Really good comment Raymond. ESPECIALLY that "at a glance" part. One of the things I was working on was a way to "see" "at a glance" if there either was or was about to "be" a trade on a currency. The paralysis of analysis is a major issue in trading. I read once, not sure where, "the more confirmation a trader needs to take a trade, the more risk and fewer pips they will have to live with."

THAT statement opened my eyes in a way I cannot even begin to explain. It is said that you cannot pick tops and bottoms in trading. Oh really,,, why? In "The Dance" we ROUTINELY pick almost EXACT tops on moves of a certain kind. THAT IS THE ESSENCE of a "Touch" trade to be honest. They say you can't catch a falling knife,, oh really? Take a "touch trade."

On Touch trades we stand full in front of the approaching train, lie dead under the falling knife and pick the (almost) EXACT point it will turn, with the LEAST possible confirmation for that entry. BUT we do it in such a way that if the "knife" keeps falling we get nicked not stabbed in the heart. IF the train keeps coming, we get gently "moved aside" and not crushed and if the top we pick isn't really the top, no big deal, another trade will be long any minute.

Trading is NOT a spectator's sport and YOU WILL get "hit," "slammed," "cut," or lots of other ways of putting it. YOU MUST EXPECT IT TO HAPPEN, or you are NOT mentally prepared for trading.

I have watched many, many times when my friend Endroute NAILED a trade EXACTLY at the EXTREME TIP of an M15 pin bar, and was literally flabbergasted by it and the uncanny way he had of doing it. SO I asked TONS and TONS of questions over a very long time to figure out all the nuances of how he trades and how I could use it and create something "I" could trade as well.

Lots of lines on a chart just confuses me. Oscillators lie to me every single time, even though there are some who swear by them. I almost always ended up swearing at them.

I needed something SIMPLE, and when we get to the point of talking about advanced rules, THEY WILL BE SIMPLE to use and SIMPLE to follow and SIMPLE to "see" the signals they provide. Anything less would be a waste of my time and yours.

Complicated strategies are for complex people who want to spend endless hours in front of a screen. I and most here want a life APART from trading that is the REASON we trade, to have a LIFE.

There are so many "lies" and untruths in FOREX and trading in general and I HATE lies with a passion most have a hard time even comprehending, so I do the best I can to SIMPLIFY everything. Just what works, nothing else ever.

There also a great many "self fulfilling" prophecies we can take advantage of. We do the best we can here to do that.

Wow,,, you hit a nerve with that "at a glance" comment. Cool stuff! Glad you mentioned it.

God bless and good trading to all.
  • #330
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:26pm Mar 25, 2010 8:26pm
oh boy! clay u got me all excited about the breakout trading in your advanced strategy.

as for oscillators, they lie becos they are on the wrong time frame. My experience with them is this: given a 200pip move up in a day, lets say i trade on the 5minTF, at the start of the move 5minTF stochs are moving towards the ceiling and stays there for the rest of the day. 15minsTF takes a longer time reach the ceiling and stays there for the rest of the day. so on and so forth, but if u look at the 4hr, it shows a perfect buy sell signal on the stochs just becos the size of the move fits the 4hr stoch perfectly. problem is we will neva know how big the move will be for that day and such we will not know which TF stoch we should trust.

as for momentum(for MA or PA). i think angle of 35/50 would do just fine. i have had some experience in finding momentum(which i feel is important as it shows dwindling strength in a trend and possible reversal) via volume but problem is volume in forex is not really accurate due to the market's nature. another momentum indicator i use to use was bill williams' AO. im a great fan of his and his 3 trading books had a great impact in my life/trading journey/mentality. problem is his indicators are somewhat based on volume as well which screws with the result in forex markets due to how volume is counted in forex.

just some personal thoughts. not trying to pollute the thread with other indicators.
  • #331
  • Edited 11:43pm Mar 25, 2010 9:24pm | Edited 11:43pm
Hi yunie, don't think I mentioned any "breakout" as part of the strategy, but a "clear break" is part of it and I guess there could be a way of using that concept, haven't really given it too much thought.

Today sure seems slow trading wise, but there have been some signals. In a GU long ATM myself off the last constrainment area of the M15 50 EMA top side and moved to BE +3 already. Don't really expect much out of it right now,,, just going to milk it along and see what happens. It could come back down after all this work and pop me out +3,,, hope not, but it's a slow night and it might.

Here's the chart and the progress so far. currently up about 10 pip, and locked in BE+3

P.S. FINAL was +22 stopped out at a profit. Not bad. hit my SL on the last image below.
Attached Images
  • #332
  • Mar 25, 2010 9:53pm Mar 25, 2010 9:53pm
Quoting eclayf
Complicated strategies are for complex people who wasn't to spend endless hours in front of a screen. I and most here want a life APART from trading that is the REASON we trade, to have a LIFE.
so true... before i starting trading your strategy i was actually quite profitable on another. proud record stands at 87wins 0 loss. if my trade was right i made small money, if my trade was wrong i made big money(highest unrealised drawdown was 12%). but i got burned out quickly. on my wrong days it took me on average 12-16hrs of screen staring(lookin for levelled entry n exit points) before i could turn loss into profit. my days as u know start at london open(my 3pm) on some occasions i had to sit till new york close (5am). even though i was making good money i was not happy, tired and lifeless.. so i told myself i will never use that strategy again. and thus my journey to rediscover a new strategy started. guess what! the day u posted your strategy was the day i starting lookin for a new strategy. i think its called fate.

i must admit my entries are very rusty and careless becos my previous strategy didnt really care about how you enter. i could take any system posted in this forum and turn their losses into winners. but the whole gameplan has changed. gota get very strict with my entries now.

on ur G/U trade. looks like its running out of steam with 1HR 35 comin up. i might take that short touch.
  • #333
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:05pm Mar 25, 2010 10:05pm
Eclayf, thank you for continuing to post charts of your recent trades, they are invaluable.
  • #334
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:17pm Mar 25, 2010 10:17pm
Hi Clay.
It truly is a pleasure to read and follow along on this thread. Again I appreciate the time you put into it.
On your last trade. the 1H is in a down trend so I thought we should only be looking to go short. Please explain. Thanks again!
Barry
  • #335
  • Edited Mar 26, 2010 12:03am Mar 25, 2010 11:40pm | Edited Mar 26, 2010 12:03am
Quoting Bary
On your last trade. the 1H is in a down trend so I thought we should only be looking to go short. Please explain. Thanks again!
Remember, the "signals" come primarily on M15, and ONLY "touch" trades are truly valid on H1 and D1. There are times when a constrainment trade is valid on H1, or D1, but they are pretty rare.

In addition, the SAME rules apply on ALL time frames, so if a 'rule' says that we need to be careful around a line on M15, we follow the SAME rule on the other two. SO,, on H1, price action is NOT a strong run at the 35, it is instead a sort of a "meandering" up swing.

NOW,,, DO NOT TRADE THIS COMMENT until loooooooooooooooooong after you have some experience with The Dance.

SOMETIMES, you can "see" a counter trend move on a time frame by the way the 10 EMA "scoops up" price and begins to constrain it higher on each bar. I have attached a chart to illustrate this, from THIS trading session. DO NOT trade this "signal" yet. It takes a LOT of experience to know when that sort of trade on M15 is valid. It's easier on H1, but DO NOT trade it on M15 AND, normally when it starts on H1, there is ALSO a corresponding signal on M15, like the one I took earlier.

By the way, the signal on M15 is a correct Long "with the trend of the moment" so it's only countertrend on H1 and D1, but that is part of why we use the M15,, all primary signals are on M15 so we can take advantage of the "noise" others miss out on.

Here is the chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PriceScoopedUp.gif Size: 51 KB
  • #336
  • Mar 26, 2010 6:50am Mar 26, 2010 6:50am
Hi all,

I wanted to show a chart to point a couple of things out to help the educational flow here. It's EU from today. This is my first ever attempt at posting a chart up so be gentle!

http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/3588/36927158.gif (http://img195.imageshack.us/i/36927158.gif/)


I wanted to ask about the area marked 1. We have the 50 ma in brown and that is on top of the 35. Obviously we want them the other way around. The gap is also big and pa has only just burst through them. We have a poor angle too. However, there is a good bounce worth a few pips on the first test - I would no way take this though. It then re-tests and the second test has a red candle with a small wick that closes on the 50 and 10 ma's. This looks like a decent set-up to me, despite the factors against us and it not entirely following the rules. Price races away after that second touch. Should we be looking for these sorts of set-ups eclayf because they scream at me!!!

The second area marked 2 is something that I wanted to highlight for anyone doubting the effectiveness of these touches and trying to make sense of the system. It takes a few candles to get to the ma's but it's within the rules, just. However, we have the 35 and 50 ma's crossing so it's hitting them both at the same time - double support! Their angle is steep and good. The orange dotted line is the 35 ma from H1 - another confluence point! 3 in one go!!! There is also a xx.25 psych level there to boot. What more invitation to take the trade do you need than this?

You get instant profit here, if you take the touch. No waiting around to see if pa is going to go your way. It shoots off your way straight from the get go . No need to have more than few pips stop here, it's got everything going for it. Even if we just wait out two candles, you're going to net 4% on 2% risk. A thought I had on that sort of rapid bounce would be to wait until a candle closes back through the 10 ema against the trend direction. If you took that approach, you'd still be in this trade at 80 pips as I type! That's a staggering 1:8 R/R and a 16% account growth on one trade. HOLY COW!!!

It works folks, it really does
  • #337
  • Mar 26, 2010 8:01am Mar 26, 2010 8:01am
Trotty,
I agree with most of your analyst. I wish I was awake for the trade at #2. I seen it when I got online at 7am est.
My question is if someone misses the touch is it a good trade to take the long 1-2 pips above the touch candle if the touch candle is a pin? I've seen that many times.
Barry
Barry
  • #338
  • Mar 26, 2010 8:02am Mar 26, 2010 8:02am
Quoting Trotty
Hi all,

wanted to ask about the area marked 1. We have the 50 ma in brown and that is on top of the 35. Obviously we want them the other way around. The gap is also big and pa has only just burst through them. We have a poor angle too. However, there is a good bounce worth a few pips on the first test - I would no way take this though. It then re-tests and the second test has a red candle with a small wick that closes on the 50 and 10 ma's. This looks like a decent set-up to me, despite the factors against us and it not entirely following the...
I think this is a a decent low risk setup (right at where the 10/50 converge), if taken at the close of the candle that touched the 10/50 your sl would be 3 -4 pips plus spread below the close of that for a risk of less than 10 pips. Both mas are headed north and the 50 is about to be crossing the 10 (not that we are trading ma crosses here but again additional confirmation is always nice).
  • #339
  • Mar 26, 2010 8:37am Mar 26, 2010 8:37am
Quoting endroute
I think this is a a decent low risk setup (right at where the 10/50 converge), if taken at the close of the candle that touched the 10/50 your sl would be 3 -4 pips plus spread below the close of that for a risk of less than 10 pips. Both mas are headed north and the 50 is about to be crossing the 10 (not that we are trading ma crosses here but again additional confirmation is always nice).
Thank you endroute, it's very reassuring when you hear an experienced trader confirm your thoughts. It gives you more confidence to start trusting your own judgement if your analysis isn't totally in the confines of a system you're following.
  • #340
  • Mar 26, 2010 1:32pm Mar 26, 2010 1:32pm
Hi Dancers,

Finally a week ending in positive pips. Still experiencing losses but they are now less than the wins. Engenders confidence for the future.

Thank you Clay, a great strategy!

jvfx
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