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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #219,401
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:19am Mar 25, 2010 10:19am
Quoting Fusion
Haven't slept for 21 hours....thanks...
lol...
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #219,402
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:58am Mar 25, 2010 10:58am
Almost time to buy GU
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #219,403
  • Edited 11:36am Mar 25, 2010 11:19am | Edited 11:36am
Have checked 2 platforms now, and the volume for GJ trading this time of day has increased significantly as this week has gone on, to the point where it seems extremely today, for this time of day. Given this is sterling, I have to believe those are more sellers piling in, or, at least any previous buyers, bailing while they can. I know direct-trade sees the same thing - anyone else seeing similar?

Also meant to add ... while UJ did a further healthy 80 pips north when GJ was @ 138, GJ just couldn't break it. We should see it break 137.4 next.
  • #219,404
  • Edited 12:12pm Mar 25, 2010 11:44am | Edited 12:12pm
well not really... but here is the volume profile, showing distribution between 137.40/138. if we go below daily vwap, currently @ 137.42, then i believe shorts are confirmed.

short @ 137.30... see blue area.

p.s. - IF we are to drop, i think 136.20/135.85 will be first area to be tested, as it was last resistance before this rally. what happens there, remains to be seen. either a bounce to higher grounds (141/142), or a break to new lows (133.40 first, then lower).

Quoting Beljevina
Have checked 2 platforms now, and the volume for GJ trading this time of day has increased significantly as this week has gone on, to the point where it seems extremely today, for this time of day. Given this is sterling, I have to believe those are more sellers piling in, or, at least any previous buyers, bailing while they can. I know direct-trade sees the same thing - anyone else seeing similar?

Also meant to add ... while UJ did a further healthy 80 pips north when GJ was @ 138, GJ just couldn't break it. We should see it break 137.4 next.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #219,405
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:57am Mar 25, 2010 11:57am
Quoting Scrat
well not really... but here is the volume profile, showing distribution between 137.40/138. if we go below daily vwap, currently @ 137.42, then i believe shorts are confirmed.

short @ 137.30... see blue area.
Ya,i agree, should not daily should not close below 137.51. If not small chances to see 142 already...Good luck all
  • #219,406
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:19pm Mar 25, 2010 12:19pm
Quoting Xpittrader
yes i can see the diverg.,but we need to make another high above prev res. so that the diverrg can lign up with all the TF,and that will take a quick thrust up towrds 140-141 region . lets see if 138.50 can hold it.you might be right .but im sure we have a couple of days left for the diverg. to play out . IF WE GET A DAILY CLOSE ABOVE 138,THEN 140/141 IS IN THE CARDS

GU looks for a close above 1.5 on daily and weekly and that will lead the way to 1.52 first.

close of today and tomorrow will tell us what to do next!
weekly bar... lower low so far. i also see 138.40 area max (hopefully ).
  • #219,407
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:18pm Mar 25, 2010 1:18pm
Good luck to all on your gj trades. . . see you all down under. . .
  • #219,408
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:20pm Mar 25, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting special0nefx
Ya,i agree, should not daily should not close below 137.51. If not small chances to see 142 already...Good luck all
So what about the hourly reversal candle? A close above or below 136.50 will be critical going into 2morrows close! Which would also give us a lower high for the week. . . then I would expect a lower low by month end. . .
  • #219,409
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:24pm Mar 25, 2010 1:24pm
Quoting quecee5
Good luck to all on your gj trades. . . see you all down under. . .
Going down already? ...I wait how it close daily then only decide north or south.
Edit: But looks not good, looks going close below 137.51. I may follow your train Q... If really close below it.
  • #219,410
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:24pm Mar 25, 2010 1:24pm
i think the end of this rally has just been confirmed. 137.30 tested and taken, distribution ended and now let's open the pip parachute thank you very much.

135.85 is next.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #219,411
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:28pm Mar 25, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting special0nefx
Going down already? ...I wait how it close daily then only decide north or south.
Edit: But looks not good, looks going close below 137.51. I may follow your train Q... If really close below it.
Bro don't follow my post I just want to give constructive information so we see the glass half empty and it half full. . .

Read my signature. . .
  • #219,412
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:31pm Mar 25, 2010 1:31pm
Quoting Scrat
i think the end of this rally has just been confirmed. 137.30 tested and taken, distribution ended and now let's open the pip parachute thank you very much.

135.85 is next.
I agree but confirmation will come when we drop below weekly pivot with a close below it now at 136.80. . .

Then all that will be required is a test and failure of it and we are all good for 131.50 and below but I'm not expecting to see those level until next week if not next two weeks. . .
  • #219,413
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:36pm Mar 25, 2010 1:36pm
Quoting quecee5
Bro don't follow my post I just want to give constructive information so we see the glass half empty and it half full. . .

Read my signature. . .
ya i know, my chart still want me go for long as long today close above 137.51.
Retrace is surely but as long retrace till [email protected] and not over 136.98 i still in profit. I lock my SL@BE+20.
If hit my SL@BE then i stay sideline. See how she goes again. Anyway my main Ship is heading 125 there...Before 125, i see a possible to 142 1st...
Trend what you see.
Nice analysis with all of you, sharing info can lock pips and always in +ve
Thanks all trader GJ
  • #219,414
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:38pm Mar 25, 2010 1:38pm
Also keep in mind Uj is at weekly resistance and monthly resistance lies just above at 93.40. . . However as UJ gets strong thru usd strength with a weaken sterling and a strong dollar where does that put gj?

As gu has dropped 600 pips in the last 6 days. . . and a break and close below the low on a weekly basis not good GJ longs IMO

As it has further to fall without support than UJ has to risw without major resistance. . .
  • #219,415
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:40pm Mar 25, 2010 1:40pm
let's look for a moment at these 3 charts - monthly, weekly and daily - and see what they have to say about current direction.

1. monthly, the big boss, shows LOWER LOWS and LOWER HIGHS. this is clearly a downtrend. recommendations: SELL all rallies on weekly and daily.

2. weekly just put a LOWER LOW. and then we had a bounce to check resistance @ 137.64 area - see white arrow. from my point of view, this testing rally has just ended today - i posted today's volume profile earlier.

3. daily is not yet confirmed for a drop. there's 135.97/88 that needs to be broken - a daily close below... or a drop below 135.20 will clearly confirm the resumption of the big boss' trend = which is DOWN.

any questions? now, please excuse me while i take care of my pip parachute...
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #219,416
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:46pm Mar 25, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting Scrat
let's look for a moment at these 3 charts - monthly, weekly and daily - and see what they have to say about current direction.

1. monthly, the big boss, shows LOWER LOWS and LOWER HIGHS. this is clearly a downtrend. recommendations: SELL all rallies on weekly and daily.

2. weekly just put a LOWER LOW. and then we had a bounce to check resistance @ 137.64 area - see white arrow. from my point of view, this testing rally has just ended today - i posted today's volume profile earlier.

3. daily is not yet confirmed for a drop. there's 135.97/88...
ya. That's why i see daily LTL not broken yet and still closing higher than the previous day. Daily is the main now. Nice chart and thanks for sharing scart
  • #219,417
  • Edited 1:59pm Mar 25, 2010 1:48pm | Edited 1:59pm
Quoting special0nefx
ya i know, my chart still want me go for long as long today close above 137.51.
Retrace is surely but as long retrace till [email protected] and not over 136.98 i still in profit. I lock my SL@BE+20.
If hit my SL@BE then i stay sideline. See how she goes again. Anyway my main Ship is heading 125 there...Before 125, i see a possible to 142 1st...
Trend what you see.
Nice analysis with all, sharing info can lock pips and always in +ve
Okay think about this. . .

Last week we had a high of 139.29. . . We then opened and immediately dropped and got rejected at 138.50 after making that high and dropped to 134.50. . . Which tells me that sellers are strong there. . .

We dropped in 5 waves some say 3 but that's a different story. . . Since then we retraced 76.4% of that wave and landed right below guess what 138.50 resistance. . .

I'll say it again. . . It took 6 months to break 139.29 support after attacking it, not sure why many on this thread think it will break in less than a month. . . Also if we get a close above 138.50 that would be a direct attack on 139.29 and a weekly close above there would not be eyeing 141/142 we would see the next cluster resistance at 143.69/144. . .

The breaking of that support was major and we have since then tested it and it is a clear signal that we are continuing the main trend. . .

I'm not saying this becasue I short or long I'm saying these are fact that should not be ignored. . . It helps to look at higher TF's so one can see the "Big" picture if you want to trade counter trend!

The move up is what it is correctional and we have confirmation all week that the market is not buying into this upmove thru the divergence I'm seeing on the 1hr chart as stated ealier in my post this week. . .

I will stick to the technicals and leave the news releases and politics to the media. . .
  • #219,418
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:05pm Mar 25, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting quecee5
Okay think about this. . .

Lat week we had a high of 139.29. . . We then opened and immediately dropped and got rejected at 138.50 after making that high and dropped to 134.50. . . Which tells me that sellers are strong there. . .

We dropped in 5 waves some say 3 but that's a different story. . . Since then we retraced 76.4% of that wave and landed right below guess what 138.50 resistance. . .

I'll say it again. . . It took 6 months to break 139.29 support after attacking it, not sure why many on this thread think...
Yes, 139.29 support take nearly 6 month to break during sept 09 there and this support break. Base on what your points, we can see she going up to test for the 1st time , the previous major [email protected] which is now become our resistant already. A clear bounce heavily drop to 134.xx there for the 1st time test . Today we can see try to get close of it again, which i can see is fail already...
As for now, Daily LTL is important for now...
Thanks for the info also , Quecee
  • #219,419
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:08pm Mar 25, 2010 2:08pm
Btw, rgitt you there? Can we know your view also?
and btw, i miss you too
  • #219,420
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:28pm Mar 25, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
I'm seeing something similar too.
Aussie could drag other Yen pairs back IMO. It looks exhausted against USD and EUR and although a pop up to previous resistance on AY could happen, a pretty big fall for Aussie is on the cards.

Daily EA has strong bullish divergence....
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I don't trade them, but could there be a slight inkling of a H&S in the making on the Daily....?
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Congrats to all those who went short, especially on AU.
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