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  • #219,381
  • Mar 25, 2010 9:57am Mar 25, 2010 9:57am
Quoting Dat7447
a strong c, anyway i am looking down , say i am wrong if exceed 138.38
That chart is spot on bro. . . (15 min chart playing out right on target)

Corrective abc after 5 wave down makes a lot of sense right?

Now I'm looking for an IM (impulsive) wave down to start our bearish continuation with an initial target at 135.60 over the next few sessions.

Then we should see a bounce back up to check the evential resistance we will see once we break the minor supp areas which will then act as res.

Will be a good opportunity to add shorts at each stage for a nice ride lower all the way to 133/131/127. . . maybe even lower
  • #219,382
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:07am Mar 25, 2010 10:07am
Quoting Geppy
Well, I feel pretty stupid for closing my longs (90% of them at least). I was expecting a deeper retracement and had orders waiting, but we never got there... bummer.

I can't really say what I expect right now as I haven't been home to look over charts since last afternoon. But I can't see any reason why we can't keep going up. Yes, the long-term bias remains down until 141.00 is taken and then we can start questioning that. We're still in rally mode and there's no reason why we can't crack 139.00 It seems EVERYONE is calling for this to drop...
Well as far as EU I see no reason for it to go up at all. . . In fact we have broken long term support at 1.34031 so not sure why you see 1.35?

What I see is 1.30 as the next support level if it does not close above 1.34 by 2morrow or on Sundays open. . .
  • #219,383
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:15am Mar 25, 2010 10:15am
Quoting quecee5
Well as far as EU I see no reason for it to go up at all. . . In fact we have broken long term support at 1.34031 so not sure why you see 1.35?

What I see is 1.30 as the next support level if it does not close above 1.34 by 2morrow or on Sundays open. . .
And to throw a spanner in the works, GS have stated they have liquidated their losing EU long bets. I wouldn't long EU right now. Dollar looks very strong.

Aussie is interesting right now. Both AU and AY look to be setting up for a nice fall on the Daily TFs.

Where this leaves GY is anyone's guess, but further upside, (temporary), cannot be discounted.
  • #219,384
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:16am Mar 25, 2010 10:16am
Quoting quecee5
Well as far as EU I see no reason for it to go up at all. . . In fact we have broken long term support at 1.34031 so not sure why you see 1.35?

What I see is 1.30 as the next support level if it does not close above 1.34 by 2morrow or on Sundays open. . .
Just believe it's due for a correction as it's been sold to hell... 1.3450/1.3500 seems like an area that would be some strong resistance.
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  • #219,385
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:21am Mar 25, 2010 10:21am
Quoting quecee5
That chart is spot on bro. . . (15 min chart playing out right on target)

Corrective abc after 5 wave down makes a lot of sense right?

Now I'm looking for an IM (impulsive) wave down to start our bearish continuation with an initial target at 135.60 over the next few sessions.

Then we should see a bounce back up to check the evential resistance we will see once we break the minor supp areas which will then act as res.

Will be a good opportunity to add shorts at each stage for a nice ride lower all the way to 133/131/127....

Hi Quecee,

I agree and am looking at targets down to 12070 area...:nerd:

We are held here at bear flag retest and upper Trendline, but supported by the 38.2 Fib Fan 9Oct 2009-March 2010). Once U/J finishes it's "sh*ts and giggles" move we should see quite a dramatic fall. Hedge Funds were in on U/J at 9040, but it can't go up in a straight line forever...


Waiting and holding G/J Short 13730..., but expecting chop for a while. Could see push above 13800 before this hour closes to rip out a few more Short Stops.

Chart from earlier today:

What thinks thee?
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  • #219,386
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:25am Mar 25, 2010 10:25am
Quoting Traderdesk
One of the factors that I am keeping my eyes on is the cross-over on the usd being replace once again as a carry-trade currency. I see it happening soon but the question I have is, will it be this qtr. or the next where the effects will help propel GBP/JPY into a bullish mode. I was hoping next qtr. with the added effect of the election happening in May with a positive spin..... If we are at 127 or lower then a nice medium-term bull run would look probable. But I am getting ahead of myself here.. Now the spike up is correlated with USD/JPY so...
Well all I will say is watch for yen strength (and I know many will say why?) but watch for this move over the coming weeks as I believe this move in UJ is temp. at best. . .

Many are calling for yen appreciation or dire consequences as their currency is currently way undervalued. . .
  • #219,387
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:28am Mar 25, 2010 10:28am
Quoting Geppy
Just believe it's due for a correction as it's been sold to hell... 1.3450/1.3500 seems like an area that would be some strong resistance.

heh im with you on that one, but I be even bolder and suggest higher )
  • #219,388
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:32am Mar 25, 2010 10:32am
This is very interesting, certaintly is a possible reason for the crazy UJ rise of yesterday. As far as GJ is concerned, it's really a matter of sterling weakness vs. USD strength (as opposed to yen weakness). Most intriguing is the correlation and how it broke yesterday, between GBPJPY and GBPUSD - check the chart. I still feel sterling weakness is going to win out in the short term, just as many believe EURUSD will go lower. Not sure how/when GBPJPY & GBPUSD will line up to correlate once again - I'd expect it to be in a few days, but there's always a chance of the 2 meeting at a half way point, which may not be exactly what I was envisioning.


Traders Passing Around An Article From The Nikkei -By Jamie Coleman, March 25, 2010 at 14:18 GMT

In-boxes are filling up with an article from the Nikkei which says the Japan Post Bank has been intervening covertly in USD/JPY for the government, to keep safe-haven flows from overwhelming USD/JPY and EUR/JPY and pushing them lower (like EUR/CHF). Usually we see flows from these guys at range-extremes to keep the dollar from falling but we rarely see them chasing the rate higher, so this is a new wrinkle. The market is taking it seriously, based on the price action, with USD/JPY near 92.50 and EUR/JPY trading at 123.25 despite Greece’s woes.

From the article:

The issue has drawn market attention due to widespread speculation that the government is using the postal bank a tool for yen-selling, dollar-buying market intervention. The bank's purchase of U.S. government bonds is intended to prevent the yen from strengthening, some market insiders said. The accuracy of this view is unclear. But there is circumstantial evidence to support it. A dealer at a Japanese bank, for instance, said that the postal bank's dollar-buying prevented a further rise in the value of the yen when it soared to the 84 level in November.

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  • #219,389
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:53am Mar 25, 2010 10:53am
Quoting Geppy
Well, I feel pretty stupid for closing my longs (90% of them at least). I was expecting a deeper retracement and had orders waiting, but we never got there... bummer.

I can't really say what I expect right now as I haven't been home to look over charts since last afternoon. But I can't see any reason why we can't keep going up. Yes, the long-term bias remains down until 141.00 is taken and then we can start questioning that. We're still in rally mode and there's no reason why we can't crack 139.00 It seems EVERYONE is calling for this to drop...
I do agree with you on gbpjpy & eurusd
I'm still holding longs usdjpy from below 90.00 and i was expecting a break of 91...targeting 93
For gbpjpy i'll wait until usdjpy reaches 93-93.50 to make a decision because gbpusd is acting up & down lately i've no view on it
Dips seems to be bought on gbpjpy so i'll wait 139 before thinking of going down

Fundamentally i agree with you about a weak usd ...i'm expecting a move up to 1.3450-1.3500 as well ....either as a short covering rally or because eurozone will find a better solution for Greece.
Or i'll wait until eurusd reaches 0.00 to buy it ....
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #219,390
  • Mar 25, 2010 10:58am Mar 25, 2010 10:58am
Quoting kuroro001
I do agree with you on gbpjpy & eurusd
I'm still holding longs usdjpy from below 90.00 and i was expecting a break of 91...targeting 93
For gbpjpy i'll wait until usdjpy reaches 93-93.50 to make a decision because gbpusd is acting up & down lately i've no view on it
Dips seems to be bought on gbpjpy so i'll wait 139 before thinking of going down

Fundamentally i agree with you about a weak usd ...i'm expecting a move up to 1.3450-1.3500 as well ....either as a short covering rally or because eurozone will find a better solution for Greece.
Or...
Here's a little tidbit I found regarding Greece:

"BRUSSELS -(Dow Jones)- Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said Thursday that he supported a mechanism that
would allow his country and others in the euro zone that are hit by financial speculation to borrow through the European Commission.

"It's a clear solution and a simple one," Papandreou told reporters after meeting other socialist European leaders
ahead of a European Union summit, where Greece's debt problems will top the agenda.

"Hopefully it's a solution that might be decided even today," he said.

Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, the president of Party of European Socialists, said that the group was going to propose
a mechanism by which the commission would borrow on the market and then lend the cash on to Greece or any other country.
"
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  • #219,391
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:09am Mar 25, 2010 11:09am
Quoting Geppy
Here's a little tidbit I found regarding Greece:

"BRUSSELS -(Dow Jones)- Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said Thursday that he supported a mechanism that
would allow his country and others in the euro zone that are hit by financial speculation to borrow through the European Commission.

"It's a clear solution and a simple one," Papandreou told reporters after meeting other socialist European leaders
ahead of a European Union summit, where Greece's debt problems will top the agenda.

"Hopefully it's a solution that might be decided...

Yes i've read it earlier ... i hope it goes well
And few minutes ago Sarkozy & Merkel found an agreement about Greece....Right now the text is presented to Herman Van Rompuy
Let's wait & see

But if there is a big good news the spike up (or rally ) will be used for Soros and his dogs to short it
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #219,392
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:15am Mar 25, 2010 11:15am
Quoting kuroro001
Yes i've read it earlier ... i hope it goes well
And few minutes ago Sarkozy & Merkel found an agreement about Greece....Right now the text is presented to Herman Van Rompuy
Let's wait & see

But if there is a big good news the spike up will be used for Soros and his dogs to short it
Ok wow that's what just happened. I just walked away to take a dump and came back to see we'd spiked up (but got slapped back down).
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #219,393
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:22am Mar 25, 2010 11:22am
and you believe GS? :nerd: excuse me?!?
i would think this is the moment to go long e-u. 300 pips north... IF 3315 holds
in fact, i opened a long with a 35 pips SL... just in case.

Quoting ukdaytrader
And to throw a spanner in the works, GS have stated they have liquidated their losing EU long bets. I wouldn't long EU right now. Dollar looks very strong.

Aussie is interesting right now. Both AU and AY look to be setting up for a nice fall on the Daily TFs.

Where this leaves GY is anyone's guess, but further upside, (temporary), cannot be discounted.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #219,394
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:24am Mar 25, 2010 11:24am
Quoting Scrat
and you believe GS? :nerd: excuse me?!?
i would think this is the moment to go long e-u. 300 pips north... is 3315 holds
In this instance I actually would. Not believe them necessarily, but steer clear of EU until the news is digested.

Am short AU atm though, so I see Dollar strength.
  • #219,395
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:34am Mar 25, 2010 11:34am
Quoting Scrat
and you believe GS? :nerd: excuse me?!?
i would think this is the moment to go long e-u. 300 pips north... IF 3315 holds
in fact, i opened a long with a 35 pips SL... just in case.
2 weeks ago there were long eurusd at 1.3600...& then a 300 pips move down
Now they are short ? ok back to 1.3500
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #219,396
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:39am Mar 25, 2010 11:39am
I agree. GS and the truth don't often collide in the sentence.

Quoting Scrat
and you believe GS? :nerd: excuse me?!?
i would think this is the moment to go long e-u. 300 pips north... IF 3315 holds
in fact, i opened a long with a 35 pips SL... just in case.
  • #219,397
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:56am Mar 25, 2010 11:56am
Quoting ukdaytrader
In this instance I actually would. Not believe them necessarily, but steer clear of EU until the news is digested.

Am short AU atm though, so I see Dollar strength.
Was looking for a sensible position in all this madness. I picked up some short AU too. Looks like a good probability trade technically.
  • #219,398
  • Mar 25, 2010 11:59am Mar 25, 2010 11:59am
What is your target for shorts?...If you don't mind...

Quoting direct-trade
Hi Quecee,

I agree and am looking at targets down to 12070 area...:nerd:

We are held here at bear flag retest and upper Trendline, but supported by the 38.2 Fib Fan 9Oct 2009-March 2010). Once U/J finishes it's "sh*ts and giggles" move we should see quite a dramatic fall. Hedge Funds were in on U/J at 9040, but it can't go up in a straight line forever...


Waiting and holding G/J Short 13730..., but expecting chop for a while. Could see push above 13800 before this hour closes to rip out a few more Short Stops.

Chart from earlier today:...
  • #219,399
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:04pm Mar 25, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting Fusion
What is your target for shorts?...If you don't mind...
Dude, he's said it like 1,345,395,383,591,260 time... it's actually in the portion you quoted.
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  • #219,400
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:11pm Mar 25, 2010 12:11pm
Haven't slept for 21 hours....thanks...

Quoting Geppy
Dude, he's said it like 1,345,395,383,591,260 time... it's actually in the portion you quoted.
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