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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #1,161
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:27am Mar 25, 2010 6:27am
Quoting supremeChaos
imho, whoever is mentioned is immaterial.

many often tend to glorify the successes of people like Soros et al, but many forget they too had their fair share of failure/s & mistakes.
their successes are 'in our face' & what we associate & identify them with, while their failures are swept under the rug & many are unaware of them.

Businesses have inherent risk/s; mistakes/failures are inevitable.
(obviously) Trading is a business too.
Well he started with not much and is now a billionaire, he obviously is successful. His mistakes or failures were smaller than his wins by billions.
  • #1,162
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:40am Mar 25, 2010 6:40am
Quoting chatzi
Well he started with not much and is now a billionaire, he obviously is successful. His mistakes or failures were smaller than his wins by billions.
yes, precisely my point.
most of us are short-sighted (we see/look only at the present) & never remember &/or realize that they started out small &/or struggled too, just like all of us.
  • #1,163
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:47am Mar 25, 2010 6:47am
Quoting supremeChaos
yes, precisely my point.
most of us are short-sighted (we see/look only at the present) & never remember &/or realize that they started out small &/or struggled too, just like all of us.
No one posting in a free forum will ever make any kinda money, 99.9% will lose. This 0.1% that win will barely make a profit. I haven't seen any proof otherwise.
  • #1,164
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:49am Mar 25, 2010 6:49am
This thread is getting boring . "Blah blah blah big traders make mistakes blah blah blah generic canned advice follows blah blah DS has big balls blah blah some philosophy about human existence thrown in blah blah blah"
  • #1,165
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:52am Mar 25, 2010 6:52am
Quoting chatzi
No one posting in a free forum will ever make any kinda money, 99.9% will lose. This 0.1% that win will barely make a profit. I haven't seen any proof otherwise.
Xaron won a live trading contest and got a trading position with a trading group. Xaron had a live thread with live calls and doubled or tripled his account(can't remember). Xaron posted a 8-9 month transaction log which showed a 500-600% return. Now you are just grasping for straws... and frankly you are making my smile turn upside down.

There is just one example. I'll be profitable I guarantee that .
  • #1,166
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:17am Mar 25, 2010 7:17am
Quoting Deusomega
This thread is getting boring . "Blah blah blah big traders make mistakes blah blah blah generic canned advice follows blah blah DS has big balls blah blah some philosophy about human existence thrown in blah blah blah"
Yeah, we're rapidly falling into Captain Obvious territory.

Trying to reconduct the conversation into the main topic, and specifically regarding EURUSD, markets seem massively biased towards a weaker euro for the time being, we all know that. However, the most interesting question in my opinion is this: at what level and what kind of event does the euro need to efectively reverse the downward trend which started at 1.52 at the end of 2009? in other words, I am trying to anticipate the now (in)famous order flow and see where/why may the winds change.

What's your take?
  • #1,167
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:21am Mar 25, 2010 7:21am
Quoting Tenshi28
Yeah, we're rapidly falling into Captain Obvious territory.

Trying to reconduct the conversation into the main topic, and specifically regarding EURUSD, markets seem massively biased towards a weaker euro for the time being, we all know that. However, the most interesting question in my opinion is this: at what level and what kind of event does the euro need to efectively reverse the downward trend which started at 1.52 at the end of 2009? in other words, I am trying to anticipate the now (in)famous order flow and see where/why may the winds...
Most obvious support and momentum would come from a definitive answer to Greece's problems. Greece is the subject of almost every news release. I'm not into longer term stuff though seems more fitting for people with a couple years of market experience. As I've said previously I'm sticking to short term so I can see the cause and effect more readily. Short term I favor the EUR coming back to 1.3300. EU leaders are meeting today so anything could happen.
  • #1,168
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:26am Mar 25, 2010 7:26am
Quoting Deusomega
Most obvious support and momentum would come from a definitive answer to Greece's problems. Greece is the subject of almost every news release. I'm not into longer term stuff though seems more fitting for people with a couple years of market experience. As I've said previously I'm sticking to short term so I can see the cause and effect more readily.
Yes, one would think that, but honestly, I am not so sure anymore. It's mighty hard to predict how markets will react to this kind of macro news anymore. A EU bailout would seem instantly EUR positive, but it seems an unlikely posibility now. So what of an IMF deal? it would also seem bullish for the euro, but markets are not really buying that anymore.

Maybe it is better to stick to shorter frames for now and just follow trends and ranges.
  • #1,169
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:44am Mar 25, 2010 7:44am
Hi Folks !

Attached is a quote from Ace Greenberg

„You will do well in business as long
as you don´t believe
your own odour is perfume“
(Ace Greenberg)

Maybe Bear Stearns went down by ignoring his principle...

Regards

Bernhard

P.S. Darkstar I could imagine your feelings ....... ( It's very dificult even as a pro to withstand this moments .. )
  • #1,170
  • Edited 9:53am Mar 25, 2010 7:50am | Edited 9:53am
We all just need to help each other out!

Inserted Video


EDIT: That's team spirit!
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #1,171
  • Mar 25, 2010 7:54am Mar 25, 2010 7:54am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
We all just need to help each other out!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSKL3ohnr3A
My first post in this thread and it just has to be
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,172
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:17am Mar 25, 2010 8:17am
Quoting Islander
My first post in this thread and it just has to be
I'm worried, maybe it's the kind of thing only Britons and possibly Aussies would be amused by. No other responses :/
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #1,173
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:20am Mar 25, 2010 8:20am
I think the problem is you guys are trying to think to much, trying to figure out every price movement , was it a stop run, did a option barrier cause that reversal. You will never know, you can only look for high probability setups using clues in price action and some basic TA.

Learning about order flow and microstructure is great and will help you trading, just like learning how to draw a fib or about money management.

It is not a grail, just another tool.
  • #1,174
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:26am Mar 25, 2010 8:26am
Quote
I think the problem is you guys are trying to think to much, trying to figure out every price movement , was it a stop run, did a option barrier cause that reversal.

What you describe is trying to explain the past - and this is of no use to us.

Quote
Learning about order flow and microstructure is great and will help you trading, just like learning how to draw a fib or about money management.

It is not a grail, just another tool

I refuse to believe that fibs have any kind of predictive value, it's almost not even worth disproving there use because I don't see for a second why they would be useful.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #1,175
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:27am Mar 25, 2010 8:27am
I'm wondering where people are getting this idea as though people in this thread are looking for a holy grail?

For the most part I've only seen rational and logical discussion by those who are truly interested in learning like Leon and a few others.

I definitely try to think about why price moved sharply at one place or consolidated at another. This type of thinking I believe is very helpful... and asking questions like was it a stop hunt, or did an option cause movement or stalling etc can only be helpful. I don't think anyone is under the delusion that we can explain every price movement but I definitely believe certain price points which cause reactions in price can be explained. And I believe much can be learned from studying these reactions and their primary causes.

Take for example the EURUSD as we speak. Option activity would explain its consolidation around the 1.3340 level much more than any fib explanation... For my part I'll bet that people with interest in a 250M option will have much more influence than mystical fib numbers. BUT that this explanation makes more SENSE to me but thats just me.. Idc what you believe.
  • #1,176
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:32am Mar 25, 2010 8:32am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
What you describe is trying to explain the past - and this is of no use to us.



I refuse to believe that fibs have any kind of predictive value, it's almost not even worth disproving there use because I don't see for a second why they would be useful.
They are not predictive but can be a factor that you add to the probablity that your trade will profit. Draw a few fibs from a long daily move from different lows (or highs), you will likely see reaction at 50 or 61.8 or any that line up, if it happens to also be S/R or some sort (trend line, or horizontal), then that area is a hot zone. If you get a pin bar or some other pa bar, then you will want to play it.
  • #1,177
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:35am Mar 25, 2010 8:35am
Quoting Deusomega
I'm wondering where people are getting this idea as though people in this thread are looking for a holy grail?

For the most part I've only seen rational and logical discussion by those who are truly interested in learning like Leon and a few others.

I definitely try to think about why price moved sharply at one place or consolidated at another. This type of thinking I believe is very helpful... and asking questions like was it a stop hunt, or did an option cause movement or stalling etc can only be helpful. I don't think anyone is under the delusion...
You will never know if you are right, concentrate on trading, you will be able to tell if you're right about that.
  • #1,178
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:35am Mar 25, 2010 8:35am
Where are you guys reading order flow from? Can anyone advise a free option for viewing order flow?
The greatest force on earth is compound interest.
  • #1,179
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:40am Mar 25, 2010 8:40am
Quoting chatzi
They are not predictive but can be a factor that you add to the probablity that your trade will profit.
That seems sort of like adding extra indicators to "confirm" your trade. Now let's add a couple of MAs, and if they cross...
  • #1,180
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:42am Mar 25, 2010 8:42am
Quoting eurotrash
That seems sort of like adding extra indicators to "confirm" your trade. Now let's add a couple of MAs, and if they cross...
Keep it simple price with SR and fibs.
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