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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #1,141
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:55am Mar 25, 2010 12:55am
You guys are too much. The quarling is classic. I do see the frustrastion though. Everybody wants a system and a system will not be given. I started this thread simply to share my conclusions about how trading should be done; long term. Many of you knew that orderflow studies have been my number one priority and I did not nessisarily intend for the thread to turn into an orderflow thread. BUT, I was amazed to log on one day and find Darkstar had joined the discussion. I could not pass on the opportunity to learn from one of the greats. Then Mike came into the discussion. I couldn't beleive it. One of the biggest problems I faced in my studies was the staggering lack of feedback from people who knew what they were talking about (this is not a stab at all my totally cool study partners these past months, you all know who you are ). That's why I was more than willing to let the thread turn into what it has.
DS and Mike answered all my nagging questions. Many of you will see their words and call them vague and unclear, but you have no real working knowledge to base that on. They were crystal clear for me and confirmed and dismissed a lot of what I had been thinking.

Despite all the naysayers and whiners as of late, I have to say there is a lot to learn and much to be gained by studying the intracasies of the market. There is TA, there is FA, and then there is OFA. Oh and one more thing... I never said i was mr big bad crazy profitable trader man. I'm just a guy who is working on it and getting closer everyday. I don't want to find myself 5-10 years into trading still stuck on things like obscure patterns to base trading decisions on. I'm 25 years old and I've only been involved with the trading world for a little over 2.5 years now. I was lucky enough to stumble upon members of forums like this, namely all the guys I've mentioned a million times. I study everyday and chew through as much info as I can. I've been devoting 10-15 hours a week since last August on this whole OF thing and it's been the best step I've taken in my journey so far. I know there are guys out there who have been sucked into the trap of retail trading who have been at it a LOT LONGER than me who still can't explain the simple basics of price movement. That's really sad to me and the only way I know to get better is to study.

Forex Factory is supposed to be a friendly place where we all network and learn together. I wish FF had a private or invite only forum area where we could start more meaningful dialogues and share with those who are like minded and who have done their homework too.
  • #1,142
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:08am Mar 25, 2010 1:08am
Quoting Scotty B
You guys are too much. The quarling is classic. I do see the frustrastion though. Everybody wants a system and a system will not be given. I started this thread simply to share my conclusions about how trading should be done; long term.
Any thread discussing long term seems to be a major threat to folks these days. I think you've done the best you can with the thread given the circumstances.

If any thread is started to discuss a method of trading that is not a scalping method all the scalpers will show up to derail and attack the posters of the thread and defend scalping even if nobody was talking about it. It's the usual cast of cult members it seems.

I get the impression that folks that scalp are very insecure about how they trade that they must attack any thread that dares discuss a time frame greater than 5 minutes or a method of trading that isn't scalping. Another observation, I look at all the dissenters in this thread and all of them appear to be scalpers and the thread is about order flow and longer term outlooks. I doubt that is a coincidence.

I don't see longer time frame traders interrupting scalper threads and attacking the members. I mean really, are scalpers that insecure that they can't even let a discussion take place about methods that are not scalping? From what I can see the answer is most definitely, yes.

Heaven forbid people discuss trading other than scalping at Forex Factory! Is the battle cry.

Before all you ladies try and hit me with your handbags, I have nothing against scalping. If you can make it work for you, great. We just don't need to hear about on every single thread.
.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #1,143
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:29am Mar 25, 2010 1:29am
Quoting Scotty B
I have to say there is a lot to learn and much to be gained by studying the intracasies of the market.
Agreed! Maybe once all the dust settles the discussion along those lines will continue. http://fc04.deviantart.net/images2/i...d_emoticon.gif

Also:
Quoting Scotty B
I wish FF had a private or invite only forum area
Quoting LasVahGoose
You have an 11th moderated forum section. A user starts a new thread and now the OP has full control over their thread.
  • #1,144
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:00am Mar 25, 2010 2:00am
Our capacity for making mistakes and errors in trading never really diminishes. Certainly, the market's ability to provide opportunities for us to make them never diminishes either.

The best one can hope for is the ability to recognize such mistakes and minimize their impact so they don't become account busters and/or morale destroyers.

Trading never becomes easy. As soon as one starts to believe it is, you're going to take a severe kick in the ass.

Kudos to DS for admitting it here, but the lesson is one should not make their trading public.
  • #1,145
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:35am Mar 25, 2010 2:35am
Hi Folks,

It matters not a jot if his loss on his trading account is 50%.

Trading isn't his only source of income.

Look at the bigger picture.

What if his trading account was holding only 5% of his total disposable assets, this would throw a completely different light on the subject.

If you were working for a major Bank and you had a trading account of $5m how much of this money would you be expected to risk, now don't tell me 2% because that is a crock of shit.

Regards,

BabeFX
  • #1,146
  • Mar 25, 2010 3:55am Mar 25, 2010 3:55am
Yeah Dopey, BabeFX,
it goes back to my previous point:
only your bottomline should matter to you.

a trader is bound to make mistakes, sooner or later & big or small, for as long as he trades.
we shouldn't create a big fuss & be hypercritical of someone for making one trading mistake.
we shouldn't kick someone if he's already down in the mud.

we are trying to learn here.
Fault finding is a very easy job & IMHO, it's not healthy, specially if we are seriously trying to learn.
we should create an environment conducive for new members to learn & for old members to continue participating (as opposed to leaving or stay lurking).
  • #1,147
  • Mar 25, 2010 4:22am Mar 25, 2010 4:22am
What if George Soros, Warren Buffet or a like character made a wrong move and lost some money? Would you completely debase them as investors? Some of us probably would, but it would be a mistake to debase their methodologies and overall thinking.

Get your minds off of money and instead focus them on methodologies, mechanisms, and ideas.

Take the ideas, make them your own and test them yourselves.
  • #1,148
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:08am Mar 25, 2010 5:08am
Since this colloquium has been dirty nuked, we could always pause and talk about risk.

I lose when my position in the market is negatively correlated with PA. How does one manage risk? How many options does a trader have in this regard? What are the factors that contribute to risk? How many of those factors are controllable? Is it possible to trade without risk?

Lets hear your thoughts.

This isn't necessarily a blatant orderflow question, it's just related to profitable trading and it could take us in a more productive path for the time being. All of this stuff is inseparable BTW.
  • #1,149
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:15am Mar 25, 2010 5:15am
Quoting Scotty B
I lose when my position in the market is negatively correlated with PA. How does one manage risk? How many options does a trader have in this regard? What are the factors that contribute to risk? How many of those factors are controllable? Is it possible to trade without risk?
Yes if you find execution inefficiencies etc. Like DS previously mentioned.
  • #1,150
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:16am Mar 25, 2010 5:16am
Quoting Scotty B
What if George Soros, Warren Buffet or a like character made a wrong move and lost some money? Would you completely debase them as investors? Some of us probably would, but it would be a mistake to debase their methodologies and overall thinking.

Get your minds off of money and instead focus them on methodologies, mechanisms, and ideas.

Take the ideas, make them your own and test them yourselves.
Well they do have documented success, the people on here only have documented failure. I'm not criticizing I am studying market microstructure as well, just I can see why some people are not buying in to it.
  • #1,151
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:17am Mar 25, 2010 5:17am
Quoting Deusomega
Yes if you find execution inefficiencies etc. Like DS previously mentioned.
Is that the only way?
  • #1,152
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:20am Mar 25, 2010 5:20am
Quoting chatzi
Well they do have documented success, the people on here only have documented failure. I'm not criticizing I am studying market microstructure as well, just I can see why some people are not buying in to it.
I say don't ever buy into a person, just try to focus on the matter at hand. Forget scotty b and everyone else, lets talk trading. Maybe we can all learn something.
  • #1,153
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:23am Mar 25, 2010 5:23am
Quoting Scotty B
Is that the only way?
The only way I know of so far.. every time you enter the market there is a risk that it will turn against you. I think the only way to minimize this risk without talking about options etc(I've seen DS mention hedged option positions) is to put your order in with a solid amount of market sentiment backing you or plainly put orders. I haven't really thought about risk as much as finding a high probability method for taking trades. This must come first I believe. So far I agree with Hanover and others... without an edge or a way to find high probability trades MM won't save you.
  • #1,154
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:24am Mar 25, 2010 5:24am
Quoting Scotty B
I say don't ever buy into a person, just try to focus on the matter at hand. Forget scotty b and everyone else, lets talk trading. Maybe we can all learn something.
Ok, I agree but you did compare yourself or DS to Soros et al, that was a bad move, credibility of this thread is already hanging on a thread if you pardon the double meaning.
  • #1,155
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:24am Mar 25, 2010 5:24am
I don't agree at all. You can minimize risk but you can't trade without risk.

Trading without risk is called buying a government bond (and these days, even that is risky...)
  • #1,156
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:26am Mar 25, 2010 5:26am
There is no such thing as risk free, this smacks of grail searching. You should focus on learning to cut losses, add to winners, kiss.
  • #1,157
  • Edited 9:08am Mar 25, 2010 5:31am | Edited 9:08am
Quoting Tenshi28

Trading without risk is called buying a government bond (and these days, even that is risky...)
I've heard some people call it arbitrage to. Just saying. One answer of many. So far we have:

 

  1. Exploiting Inefficiencies
  2. Buying Government bonds
  3. Arbitrage

  • #1,158
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:35am Mar 25, 2010 5:35am
Quoting chatzi
Ok, I agree but you did compare yourself or DS to Soros et al, that was a bad move, credibility of this thread is already hanging on a thread if you pardon the double meaning.

Definitley not making that comparison
  • #1,159
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:15am Mar 25, 2010 6:15am
Quoting chatzi
Ok, I agree but you did compare yourself or DS to Soros et al, that was a bad move, credibility of this thread is already hanging on a thread if you pardon the double meaning.
imho, whoever is mentioned is immaterial.

many often tend to glorify the successes of people like Soros et al, but many forget they too had their fair share of failure/s & mistakes.
their successes are 'in our face' & what we associate & identify them with, while their failures are swept under the rug & many are unaware of them.

Businesses have inherent risk/s; mistakes/failures are inevitable.
(obviously) Trading is a business too.
  • #1,160
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:26am Mar 25, 2010 6:26am
Quoting Darkstar
I think we need some clarification here. Taking longs on e/u at this point is little more then gambling.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Going back to Monday or Tuesday(?) you might recall my post about cutting the long if price hit 3400. Normally I have no trouble with averaging down in a trade but there was no point in this case. We weren't buying because the euro was cheap. We were buying on the premise that a Greek bailout would entice buy orders into the market. The climax of that event happened yesterday...
Well, this guy's got balls being honest. I rate that. What Darkstar went through is not especially uncommon to you or I -- we've all fallen off the tightrope before and copped devastating losses.

To borrow a cycling analogy, say, Lance Armstrong is the best cyclist in history, massive reputation, and you know he's sharp. But at the end of the day he still has to suffer like everyone else up those mountains, he still has to take the same precautions to avoid getting run over by trucks, etc.

Moral of story, stay ever vigilant: noone, not even the best, is invincible against the forces of nature and of the markets.

Traders are human, and to be human is to err -- happens even to the best of us. Just because it happened to him doesn't mean you get to go to town on the guy, unless you're the sort that delights in the pain of others. In which case, what comes around goes around.

Happy pips to all
Chngster
Thank you Crucial Point, Bleek, Trizzle, Darkstar
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