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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #1,081
  • Edited 9:42am Mar 24, 2010 9:33am | Edited 9:42am
Hi Folks,

The market is just a machine that processes orders. Just like your local "Fast Food" venue, "Next order please"

As FTi says follow the ladies with the long legs.





This little snippet if its true should keep a lid on the Euro


The only question we have is whether or not the euro goes to par quickly on some type of Eurozone crisis, or just grinds lower and lower in the months ahead. Either way, we want to remain positioned short the euro against the dollar and ride this move for all its worth. This research piece lays out the key reasons why we are confident in that view.

The PIIGS are collectively sitting on a whopping $2,946 billion (€ 2,166.6 billion) of short-term external debt; and a colossal $8,152 billion (€ 5,994.2 billion) of the long-term variety.



 Regards,


BabeFX
  • #1,082
  • Mar 24, 2010 9:41am Mar 24, 2010 9:41am
Quoting BabeFX
Hi Folks,

The market is just a machine that processes orders. Just like your local "Fast Food" venue, "Next order please"

As FTi says follow the ladies with the long legs.


Regards,


BabeFX
yes, such clarity.

~~~~~~ <-- my brains splattered across the ground
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #1,083
  • Edited 10:55am Mar 24, 2010 10:17am | Edited 10:55am
[quote=nubcake;3580432]yes, such clarity.

~~~~~~ <-- my brains splattered across the ground[/quote

Hi nubcake,

Yes, sometimes its goes up & sometimes it goes down.

Yes we are all probably safer to wait for a retest of a breakout or confirmation of a failed breakout before entering.

Special consideration to levels around numbers ending 00 or 50, everything already covered in previous posts.

Regards,

BabeFX.
  • #1,084
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:20am Mar 24, 2010 10:20am
Buyers showing interest ATM. Never a guarantee..One of those micro based trades that you jump into, cover, and wait.
  • #1,085
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:34am Mar 24, 2010 10:34am
Ive been trying to put the pieces of this Jigsaw together.

Darkstar, Gaston, Topkher88, Trader888 & a few others all seem to "Sing from the same hymm Sheet" They dont trade (a) indicators, (b) news releases or (c) PA.

Fundamentals help them build a picture and if you strip out a, b and c then all you are left with is price and orders. (where future market stop orders rest). Seems like above and below round numbers 00 and 50 also coincide with large portion of barrier options. But as spot FX is OTC decentralised finding the order infomation is unreliable.

Darkstar said that the DOM of MB and most other ECN's is just an illusion. So where can we look for this info.

EBS is said to handle approx $ 200 billion in spot FX transactions, which would equate to roughly 1/6th of total daily volume traded. THATS HUGE.

EBS is the primary trading venue for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/CHF and Reuters fxfx / 3000 for most others mainly GBP crossed pairs.

My uncle works for Barcalys Capital in London and was Head of structured FX products for BARX. I think its time i started asking him some serious questions.

Darkstars posts have forced me to look at whats going on behind candlesticks and indicators and investigate price flows.
  • #1,086
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:34am Mar 24, 2010 10:34am
Quoting Scotty
Buyers showing interest
Maybe I don't know a lot about order flow and I don't have IFR and whatever else but if you're trying to find opportunities of buying EURO...
This pair broke every important support and is heading to 1.29. Even short term any long trade looks bad.
  • #1,087
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:45am Mar 24, 2010 10:45am
Quoting Scotty B
Buyers showing interest ATM. Never a guarantee..One of those micro based trades that you jump into, cover, and wait.

are u referring to futures volume scott ?

thanks
  • #1,088
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:46am Mar 24, 2010 10:46am
Quoting Tornado
Ive been trying to put the pieces of this Jigsaw together.

Darkstar, Gaston, Topkher88, Trader888 & a few others all seem to "Sing from the same hymm Sheet" They dont trade (a) indicators, (b) news releases or (c) PA.

Fundamentals help them build a picture and if you strip out a, b and c then all you are left with is price and orders. (where future market stop orders rest). Seems like above and below round numbers 00 and 50 also coincide with large portion of barrier options. But as spot FX is OTC decentralised finding the order infomation...
Ehh. Price is just a byproduct of consumption. It's always relative. That's why none of these guys use charts. It's all about liquidity effects. Throw little pebbles in a pond and you get nice little ripples and maybe a tiny spash..Throw a boulder in the pond and you're probably going to 1. Get wet, 2. Kill some fish, 3. Piss off some fisherman, 4. Cause a wave not a ripple..That sort of thing.
  • #1,089
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:52am Mar 24, 2010 10:52am
Quoting lumesh
are u referring to futures volume scott ?

thanks
Yeah..Thats all you need. And a ton a patience. I've never bothered with anything else and frankly don't have much interest at this point.

------

Well there was a 20 pip trade..They happen all the time and in the same way. Often they'll give you much more than that. I don't like burning my eyes out so I like to set em and forget em as the late night TV salesman say.
  • #1,090
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:56am Mar 24, 2010 10:56am
Quoting Tornado
Darkstar, Gaston, Topkher88, Trader888 & a few others all seem to "Sing from the same hymm Sheet" They dont trade (a) indicators, (b) news releases or (c) PA.
My uncle works for Barcalys Capital in London and was Head of structured FX products for BARX.
Just to clear up a few things. DS trades news releases. He did in the past and even wrote a post describing his way of trading the news(I wouldn't be surprised if he still doesn't when he feels like giving it a go)

Also DS uses PA. PA is used in so many different senses on the forum so hard to nail down a clear meaning(which I don't think is necessary)... but literally if you look at a chart then you are "using" PA.

First step to figuring out this jigsaw is reading ALL of Darkstar's posts. If you do you will see he trades using many different approaches but sentiment is a common denominator as I would argue is a common denominator in any successful trading strategy.

But above all else I want to comment on family connections. I've seen a couple people mention family members who are involved in fx in some threads. And if your Uncle was Head of an FX department then for the love of god stop reading this forum at once and talk to your uncle. Even if he isn't a trader himself(idk what qualifications are for that position) he must have immense inside connections. What he can teach you and further connect you to should be your primary and only focus if you are serious. Buy him dinner.. offer to help with whatever he needs for free... etc...

So even if he's not a trader information is EVERYTHING in trading. I think for the most part besides psychology its the only thing that separates profitable traders from losers. And man you have an uncle who probably has a hell of a lot of information. Barclays has assets in the trillions. I'm jealous now.
  • #1,091
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:56am Mar 24, 2010 10:56am
I've gotten into several of these longs and each one has gotten eaten. It's the double edged sword of refusing to trade a certain direction. At least I'm making interest...haha. This is why there is a new sub forum of this thread detailing the failings of Scotty B.
  • #1,092
  • Mar 24, 2010 11:00am Mar 24, 2010 11:00am
Quoting Scotty B
Yeah..Thats all you need. And a ton a patience. I've never bothered with anything else and frankly don't have much interest at this point.

------

Well there was a 20 pip trade..They happen all the time and in the same way. Often they'll give you much more than that. I don't like burning my eyes out so I like to set em and forget em as the late night TV salesman say.
From where you get the futures vol data/chart?


Thanks
  • #1,093
  • Mar 24, 2010 11:01am Mar 24, 2010 11:01am
Quoting Scotty B
Yeah..Thats all you need. And a ton a patience. I've never bothered with anything else and frankly don't have much interest at this point.

------

Well there was a 20 pip trade..They happen all the time and in the same way. Often they'll give you much more than that. I don't like burning my eyes out so I like to set em and forget em as the late night TV salesman say.
cool,

are u into vsa then ?
  • #1,094
  • Mar 24, 2010 11:04am Mar 24, 2010 11:04am
Quoting lumesh
cool,

are u into vsa then ?
No.. But I'm not against VSA..I don't want to make any judgments about what other folks are doing.
  • #1,095
  • Mar 24, 2010 11:54am Mar 24, 2010 11:54am
Darkstar,

I have a few questions related to trade documentation and measurment:

1) What information is important to document (position size, wins/losses, dates, etc)
2) What statistical numbers are relevant in measuring them (expectancy, profit factor, etc)?
3) Out of curiosity, how do you document your trades (some kind of spreadsheet?)

This would help me tremendously, thank you!
All I ask for is a chance to prove that money cannot make me happy.
  • #1,096
  • Mar 24, 2010 12:27pm Mar 24, 2010 12:27pm
I think we need some clarification here. Taking longs on e/u at this point is little more then gambling.

Going back to Monday or Tuesday(?) you might recall my post about cutting the long if price hit 3400. Normally I have no trouble with averaging down in a trade but there was no point in this case. We weren't buying because the euro was cheap. We were buying on the premise that a Greek bailout would entice buy orders into the market. The climax of that event happened yesterday when France and Germany agreed that the IMF should take the lead. The default risk has averted but the market dropped precipitously as a result.

The hard truth is, I failed in my analysis. Apparently the concern was never really about "if" greece would get a bailout. It was "how" that bailout would be organized. I still fail to grasp exactly why an IMF loan is more negative for the euro then a euro led bailout, but the market seems to think there is a difference and that’s all that matters.

Now one could argue that I'm making excuses, but my account balance bears the truth of my failure. I took a $50k hit and it doesn't matter how well off you are, that hurts. I failed in that trade and I paid the price for failure. The question I've had to ask myself is, "why?"

I think part of the reason is that I took the trade for all the wrong reasons. I wanted to make a point for Scotty and answer some of the critics who have given him and I grief throughout the course of this thread. I also wasn't following euro specific news very closely prior to taking the trade. Unfortunately, I rationalized that after a year or so of consistent wins I could make it work regardless. I got cocky and took the trade even though I wasn't qualified to handle the position.

Once I took it and called it on an open forum (where a great many people seem to have respect for what I do), I didn't want the trade to fail. I should have gotten out a lot sooner then I did yet my fear of loss got in the way of making good decisions.

Worst of all, I ALMOST made it worse. After I lost, I threw on a huge revenge trade solely so that I could save face. Thankfully I came to my senses and closed it at BE, but that could have very quickly put me on tilt and started a massive depletion of my capital base.

Now these aren't excuses. I failed and I am willing to freely admit that I failed. I made bad decisions and it cost me. The entire point of this post is to punish myself by publicly airing my failures with this trade. The money may hurt, but without correcting the mistakes in the psychology that led me to this point, I'm doomed to accept more losses.

Going forward, for better or worse, I will not be making any more live calls related to real money positions. I think I have demonstrated to myself and anyone following that I lack the emotional fortitude to deal with that type of pressure. If anyone wants to debate or discuss positions that I'm not holding, that’s fine. Just don't ask me what I'm doing right now on my own accounts.

I will be taking a few days off to get my head right. In the mean time, I encourage everyone to examine my failure and draw your own lessons from it. We can take up the discussion next week if anyone has any thoughts to share.

Luck be with you.
  • #1,097
  • Mar 24, 2010 12:41pm Mar 24, 2010 12:41pm
Quoting Darkstar
I think we need some clarification here. Taking longs on e/u at this point is little more then gambling.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Going back to Monday or Tuesday(?) you might recall my post about cutting the long if price hit 3400. Normally I have no trouble with averaging down in a trade but there was no point in this case. We weren't buying because the euro was cheap. We were buying on the premise that a Greek bailout would entice buy orders into the market. The climax of that event happened yesterday...

Kudos on being able to admit that. This example goes to show that the battle of overcoming beginner mistakes is not a one time thing but a continuing process in the life of a trader. In my opinon that is why I think MOST succesful top traders are reclusive. The extra pressure for having to perform for the ego is insidious and sneaky. SO the best thing to do most of the time is not put oneself in a position to have to defend it.

Thanks once again darkstar for your above post. I was following this thread closely and this is the best thing i got out of it (dont put yourself in a position to defend your ego or position). Sorry it had to be at your expense though.
  • #1,098
  • Mar 24, 2010 12:46pm Mar 24, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting Darkstar
called it on an open forum (where a great many people seem to have respect for what I do), I didn't want the trade to fail. I should have gotten out a lot sooner then I did
Sorry about the loss, DS.

I don't blame you at all for not making more calls. Too high of a likelihood that it's being forced - either in putting it on, holding it or closing it out.

Thanks for trying on our behalf. Feel better!
  • #1,099
  • Mar 24, 2010 12:57pm Mar 24, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting Darkstar
I think we need some clarification here. Taking longs on e/u at this point is little more then gambling.

I still fail to grasp exactly why an IMF loan is more negative for the euro then a euro led bailout, but the market seems to think there is a difference and that’s all that matters.
Yeah that's a good point. I don't really have a clue either might be because Euro leaders putting off the responsibility and the overall inaction. Also there was a large DNT at 1.3400(supposedly huge stops) that it seemed combined with the inaction of Euros and overall market sentiment that it ended up acting like a black hole towards price. I'm an infant when it comes to the market but seems like once we got around 1.3430(and the consolidation and inability to hit higher) there was no direction but down towards that DNT.

Sorry about the loss as well but with someone like you it will just be a small stumble.
  • #1,100
  • Mar 24, 2010 1:49pm Mar 24, 2010 1:49pm
Aren't Darkstar (and a couple more in FF) words in his posts, the most similar we get to market wizards interviews?

Now, we have 3 options:
- We take blindly what he says and we will certainly fail;
- We take "nada" of what he says and we will probably fail because it means we have market dogmas and are not willing to learn anymore;
- We take from his words what we think fits our personality as a trader and we increase the odds of success. Nothing more, no guarantees.

Darkstar's last post is a great lesson on the most important area in trading.

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