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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #219,181
  • Mar 23, 2010 10:22am Mar 23, 2010 10:22am
Quoting grashid


nice observation and 200-300pips more up with 137.50 as i mentioned in asian....

since nice daily pin, my straegy for today is buy dip n yes, easy 100pip bnk..maybe ther people will say am crazy, but daily candle is enough to tell u that clue....

unless 134.50 break, then that diff stoy where we should buy dip and put SL at this number...

good luck guys
  • #219,182
  • Mar 23, 2010 10:31am Mar 23, 2010 10:31am
Simple 15m time-frame view...
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  • #219,183
  • Mar 23, 2010 10:43am Mar 23, 2010 10:43am
gj15m
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  • #219,184
  • Mar 23, 2010 11:00am Mar 23, 2010 11:00am
Quoting Geppy
Simple 15m time-frame view...
clear love simple things. but the real risk for longs I see is UJ dropping:

Daily:

Attached Image
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #219,185
  • Mar 23, 2010 11:07am Mar 23, 2010 11:07am
Quoting USD-Bear
clear love simple things. but the real risk for longs I see is UJ dropping:

Daily:

Attachment
USD/JPY is range bound... that 4H hasn't broken out of that rectangle for a long time now (seems forever) and it's going to take something significant for it to go whichever way it chooses.

Assuming USD/JPY stays stagnant for awhile, we have to look to GBP/USD for direction. I think sterling still has some north-bound desire left in it and would bring GBP/JPY up too.

Again, just opinion.
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  • #219,186
  • Mar 23, 2010 11:30am Mar 23, 2010 11:30am
Quoting Geppy
USD/JPY is range bound... that 4H hasn't broken out of that rectangle for a long time now (seems forever) and it's going to take something significant for it to go whichever way it chooses.

Assuming USD/JPY stays stagnant for awhile, we have to look to GBP/USD for direction. I think sterling still has some north-bound desire left in it and would bring GBP/JPY up too.

Again, just opinion.
Agreed, thanks
Just can't lose the feeling prob due to the extreem long range bound, that final break (I see it south) will be heavy.
But as usual you're right within that time there will be numerous trades in GJ
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #219,187
  • Mar 23, 2010 11:52am Mar 23, 2010 11:52am
Quoting USD-Bear
Agreed, thanks
Just can't lose the feeling prob due to the extreem long range bound, that final break (I see it south) will be heavy.
But as usual you're right within that time there will be numerous trades in GJ
I'm not trying to guess on the direction of USD/JPY when it breaks out and I'm not ruling out either possibility. EVERYONE "sees it south" which makes me pause and wonder. There's been chatter of potential BoJ intervention if we should see much lower levels and we're pressed right up again some major resistances and still just defying gravity. All it takes is one spark but whichever way it goes, it'll be very evident which way we'll be trading.
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  • #219,188
  • Mar 23, 2010 12:59pm Mar 23, 2010 12:59pm
Quoting Traderdesk
If 135.30-00 is broken soon then next target is 134.50-60... More news coming out later so if it is bearish for the currency then it would help to propel PA to the low of yesterday and test it strongly... Bears are adding shorts at 136.00-20 for the 134.50 low...
The 136.0-20 area seems to have bears adding to their short positions. PA is now dropping and maybe some funds will take this opportunity to try to shake out the weaker longs down at 135.00-30... Will be interesting to see if it happens this evening especially when the US market closes...
Traderdesk -
  • #219,189
  • Mar 23, 2010 1:23pm Mar 23, 2010 1:23pm
Quoting Traderdesk
The 136.0-20 area seems to have bears adding to their short positions. PA is now dropping and maybe some funds will take this opportunity to try to shake out the weaker longs down at 135.00-30... Will be interesting to see if it happens this evening especially when the US market closes...
on 1hr and 4hr chart looks to be building momentum for a thust upward. . Also, looks like a classic abc correction to the upside. . .

But I do agree we could see it range between 136 and 135.20/135.50 before we get a direction either way. . .

Bullish divergence on 4hr and 1hr has already given a buy signal on dips - but that just what I'm seeing. . .
  • #219,190
  • Mar 23, 2010 1:27pm Mar 23, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting quecee5
on 1hr and 4hr chart looks to me to be building momentum for a thust upward. . . Also, looks like a classi abc correction to the upside. . .

But I do agree we could see it range between 136 and 135.20/135.50 before we get a direction either way. . .

Bullish divergence on 4hr and 1hr has already given a buy signal on dips - but that just what I'm seeing. . .
I don't see any bullish divergence on 4hr. BUt bearish divergence on daily can be seen
  • #219,191
  • Edited Mar 24, 2010 10:11am Mar 23, 2010 1:37pm | Edited Mar 24, 2010 10:11am
Quoting special0nefx
I don't see any bullish divergence on 4hr. BUt bearish divergence on daily can be seen
Yep - I'm looking at the daily as well and do agree the ultimate trend is to the downside in fact I have a 5 wave target that could reach 127 by month end. . .

However, I do think we will see at the very minimum a touch of 137/137.50/138.21 to play out the abc correction and the divergence I'm seeing. . .

a 4hr close above 136.45 should seal the deal. . .
  • #219,192
  • Mar 23, 2010 1:38pm Mar 23, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting quecee5
Yep - I'm looking at the daily as well and do agree the ultimate trend is to the downside in fact I have a 5 wave target that could reach 127 by month end. . .

However, I do think we will see at the very minimum a touch of 137/137.50/138.21 to play out the abc correction and the divergence I'm seeing. . .

a 4hr close above 136.45 should seal the seal. . .
ya i agree still got chance to 137. But if close below Daily Gann, the impulse wave is going for 125 there.
  • #219,193
  • Mar 23, 2010 1:40pm Mar 23, 2010 1:40pm
quite possible. however, if we go below today's low, i don't see any bullish momentum left - maybe 133 area will give it another chance.
crappy p.a.

Quoting quecee5
on 1hr and 4hr chart looks to be building momentum for a thust upward. . Also, looks like a classic abc correction to the upside. . .

But I do agree we could see it range between 136 and 135.20/135.50 before we get a direction either way. . .

Bullish divergence on 4hr and 1hr has already given a buy signal on dips - but that just what I'm seeing. . .
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #219,194
  • Mar 23, 2010 1:44pm Mar 23, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting Scrat
quite possible. however, if we go below today's low, i don't see any bullish momentum left - maybe 133 area will give it another chance.
crappy p.a.
ya now too risk going up now. 136.50 is hard to break.
  • #219,195
  • Mar 23, 2010 1:45pm Mar 23, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting Scrat
quite possible. however, if we go below today's low, i don't see any bullish momentum left - maybe 133 area will give it another chance.
crappy p.a.
Definitely agree on that. . .
  • #219,196
  • Mar 23, 2010 2:04pm Mar 23, 2010 2:04pm
Two potential counts:
1st count:
Still in complex 1-4hr W2 correction.

In which case price would hit the 127%-162% (1.5155 to 1.5221) retracement last bullish correction (march 22nd to March 23rd).

2nd count:
1-4hr W2 is a simple correction & complete,
Price forming smaller five waves down for 1-4hr W3, price will retrace b/t here and 78% of last bearish correction (3/23/2010).
  • #219,197
  • Mar 23, 2010 2:58pm Mar 23, 2010 2:58pm
Pretty nice rally in the DOW today and not much happening with G/J... My long bias remains and we could see a reaction in Asia tonight for a change.
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  • #219,198
  • Mar 23, 2010 3:46pm Mar 23, 2010 3:46pm
Quoting Geppy
Pretty nice rally in the DOW today and not much happening with G/J... My long bias remains and we could see a reaction in Asia tonight for a change.
Ya, I have switched over to long for this pair. Starting out light but the bears put up a hell of a fight today just to hold things back. Seemed to me the bears were super aggressive and didn't get very much out of it.
  • #219,199
  • Mar 23, 2010 3:52pm Mar 23, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting Cod
Ya, I have switched over to long for this pair. Starting out light but the bears put up a hell of a fight today just to hold things back. Seemed to me the bears were super aggressive and didn't get very much out of it.
Interesting way of seeing it... guess we'll have to wait for London (most likely).
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  • #219,200
  • Edited 8:09pm Mar 23, 2010 3:57pm | Edited 8:09pm
Quoting Geppy
Interesting way of seeing it... guess we'll have to wait for London (most likely).

I am half expecting to see a little jump from Japan tonight, they have been pretty quiet lately and usually they are all for getting some of that money out of the Yen unless they have orders from headquarters to do otherwise.

When I pip mystic chart style this is what I see.

But if it crashes through my SL and flies down into the gaping jaws of mordor I will be more than happy to get back with the bigger trend. I just have my pinkie toe soaking in the stream of long looking to build a bottom row of positions.

My TL is holding. It is costing me a little hitting SL's on small lots but I figure it is worth a shot. It takes me a few hundred pips to get turned around completely after a trend change so I'll take a little hit testing this for one.
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